Support NeoGAF

[Miles X]

No, their methodology was bad. You do not mess up this big in primary history.

You have 4 polls saying Hillary wins by 20%. (example)

Exactly what other outcome based on all that evidence do you go with??

 

[Damaniel]

Nate Silver walking it back, lol



Mmmhmm

He should just own his mistake and move on. However, all the pollsters need to figure out how they fucked up so bad.

 

[RoKKeR]

I know it's early but c'mon Idaho, Rubio needs to continue to tank!

 

[Orbis Tabula]

The man has a hard time admitting when he's wrong. Nothing new here.

I feel like his statement reads a lot like "I was wrong."

 

[Leona Lewis]

Interesting analysis by Chuck Todd on MSNBC.

Basically, tonight's MI results reveal signs that Hillary falters among demographics for whom Bernie (and Trump) really resonate. So maybe someone like Julian Castro for VP is out and someone more Rust Belt/middle class-minded like Sherrod Brown is in.

 

[MThanded]

What does this massive upset mean for Clinton's polling in other States? Should we trust them, or is it anyone's game at this point?

Trust who/what?

 

[Kickz]

Cruz up in Idaho, Trump in third.

Idaho likes their boogers

 

[Kibbles]

Thanks Wolf... lol

 

[Pop-O-Matic]

I'm calling it:

November 2016
Sanders VS Kasich VS Trump

If it comes to this, I may need to reveal some...information about how Mr. Kasich has effected my & my family's personal lives. It's not "McCain's Black Baby" level dirt, but I think it might be enough to knock him out of the general.

 

[Resident_UA]

We aren't talking about me

We are talking about the millions of votes already placed for trump

That's totally separate argument. It says more about voters than about Trump. More people know who Snooky is than those who know who's vice president in the US. This election is kind of showing that democracy might not work anymore...

 

[BowieZ]

So Wayne County is at 75% ie 180k votes, so let's make a broad assumption and assume another 60k votes up for grabs.

If Hillary continues with her 60% win of that 60k, she gets 36k to Bernie's 24k. That's a 12k gap closure.

He's currently ahead by 24.5k, though.

So Hillary needs a miracle of votes to turn this around. In other words, almost none of Detroit reporting.

 

[brainchild]

They did? They can only go on what the polls are saying.

What, you expected them to predict this based on all the polls being in Clintons favour??

My point is that it wasn't just luck that made Nate wrong.

It's one thing to aggregate polls, but it's another to make predictions about primary elections. You can't just rely on the poll numbers (there is other data out there), and I expect that Nate will be forced to learn from this mistake.

 

[pigeon]

18-29 turned out equal to 65+, nice.

Wait, really? Do you have a source on this?

 

[NihonTiger90]

Basically, the message from tonight is Hillary voters should NOT take anything for granted and crossover or stay home. You want her to win? Go vote, and vote for her, or Bernie is going to start racking up wins.

Keep in mind that some Rs (like my dad) knew Trump would win, so they crossed over and voted for Bernie, too, to make sure Hillary lost. He is incredibly happy tonight.

For Ohio, that may not happen since he is polling close with Kasich and Kasich's machine will turn out his supporters. But now's not the time to be playing games for whatever candidate you want to support. Not when the delegate totals are this massive in each state.

 

[maabus1999]

1.5 million GOP voters
1.0 million Dem voters for Michigan primary.

 

[Blader]

Interesting analysis by Chuck Todd on MSNBC.

Basically, tonight's MI results reveal signs that Hillary falters among demographics for whom Bernie (and Trump) really resonate. So maybe someone like Julian Castro for VP is out and someone more Rust Belt/middle class-minded like Sherrod Brown is in.

lol, what an incredibly insightful analysis! Next they're going to tell me Hillary doesn't seem to poll very strongly among conservatives.

 

[B-Dubs]

So Wayne County is at 75% ie 180k votes, so let's make a broad assumption and assume another 60k votes up for grabs.

If Hillary continues with her 60% win of that 60k, she gets 36k to Bernie's 24k. That's a 12k gap closure.

He's currently ahead by 24.5k, though.

So Hillary needs a miracle of votes to turn this around. In other words, almost none of Detroit reporting.

The percentage refers to the total precincts, not vote total.

 

[Brinbe]

holy crap this white GOP dude on CNN is a douche.

 

[Kevyt]

This is my guess. Young voters are particularly likely to lack partisan affiliation, and smart groundwork in Michigan gave him a competitive edge in an open primary (particularly among suburban kids who aren't black).

Hillary can still win the state, but that seems less likely with every minute. Even if this is another Iowa for Bernie, anything other than a large Hillary win is a problem for her campaign.

Can Hillary tap into these young independents in the general?

I doubt it...

Bernie really has a chance now. At least, for now, it seems like it

 

[nib95]

If it comes to this, I may need to reveal some...information about how Mr. Kasich has effected my & my family's personal lives. It's not "McCain's Black Baby" level dirt, but I think it might be enough to knock him out of the general.

Wat. Are you being serious? Also, are you sure the dirt you have is as detrimental as you think it is?

 

[SecretDan]

I understand what they do, but this was the first time I've quoted Nate Silver specifically.

Basically what is going to happen is that a lot could be up in the air next week.

"Basically what is going to happen is I don't know what is going to happen next week."

That is on hell of a sentence.

 

[catmincer]

CNN just said Hillary is closer to the nomination regardless.

 

[Baron Aloha]

Wait, really? Do you have a source on this?

On CNN a few minutes ago.

 

[MThanded]

If it comes to this, I may need to reveal some...information about how Mr. Kasich has effected my personal life. It's not "McCain's Black Baby" level dirt, but I think it might be enough to knock him out of the general.

 

[Dennis]

Gross Idaho, Cruz? Really?

 

[Sheroking]

Bad polls in Michigan do not inherently make polls everywhere unreliable.

 

[Battersea Power Station]

Where do they break down the black vote by age? I've seen it posted a few times in this thread that he's doing much better with younger black voters than older black voters, which I find kind of hard to believe.

 

[BowieZ]

The percentage refers to the total precincts, not vote total.

I'm well aware. Read what I wrote again.

 

[MartyStu]

My point is that is wasn't just luck that made Nate wrong.

It's one thing to aggregate polls, but it's another to make predictions about primary elections. You can't just rely on the poll numbers (there is other data out there), and I expect that Nate will be forced to learn from this mistake.

They do not just use polls though...

Polls weigh pretty heavily in their calculations (hence the upset) but they use as much data as they can consistently quantify.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

CNN just said regardless Hillary is closer to the nomination regardless.

Well, I think they're right in that her delegate lead increased tonight.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I doubt it...

Bernie really has a chance now. At least, for now, it seems like it

The math doesn't add up for him to have a chance.

 

[Leona Lewis]

1.5 hours ago...

Uh, I mean, no? Are you suggesting that Decision Desk is risking their reputation to make an inaccurate call when the current vote total leans the other direction...for the lols? Like, you understand that making accurate calls is literally the only reason anybody pays attention to them right?

 

[Ashodin]

"Basically what is going to happen is I don't know what is going to happen next week."

That is on hell of a sentence.

What I'm saying is that what was once seen as certain and determined could be much more unknown than previously thought.

 

[Kusagari]

CNN just said regardless Hillary is closer to the nomination regardless.

Well she is. She destroyed him in Mississippi which makes the Michigan tie moot.

 

[CrocMother]

That would be so fucking awful.

I know it's a silly what-if but how does Sanders not win that handily? Any scenario where a Democrat is heavily favored is fine by me.

 

[Massive Duck. C.M.]

Where do they break down the black vote by age? I've seen it posted a few times in this thread that he's doing much better with younger black voters than older black voters, which I find kind of hard to believe.

Why?

 

[danm999]

CNN just said Hillary is closer to the nomination regardless.

I expect they're talking about how her delegate lead increased.

 

[Loudninja]

CNN just said Hillary is closer to the nomination regardless.

Well yeah her lead increase.

 

[SolarPowered]

18-29 turned out equal to 65+, nice.

Gonna be a good day when we can put the lazy millenial voter meme to rest. I feel that day coming very soon.

 

[Vestal]

Bad polls in Michigan do not inherently make polls everywhere unreliable.

Its aggregated to it being an Open Primary. Open Primary can be interesting to say the least.

 

[Schattenjäger]

That's totally separate argument. It says more about voters than about Trump. More people know who Snooky is than those who know who's vice president in the US. This election is kind of showing that democracy might not work anymore...

You do have a point

 

[maabus1999]

I doubt it...

Bernie really has a chance now. At least, for now, it seems like it

Since there are no winner take all states in the Dem primary, is is very difficult since he is behind so much. He would have to win states 75/25 post Mar 15th to get a chance to tie her.

Delegate math is going to piss off Bernie fans here in a few weeks, but that is how the Dem party designed the system.

 

[Oltsu]

Interesting analysis by Chuck Todd on MSNBC.

Basically, tonight's MI results reveal signs that Hillary falters among demographics for whom Bernie (and Trump) really resonate. So maybe someone like Julian Castro for VP is out and someone more Rust Belt/middle class-minded like Sherrod Brown is in.

I've been saying this for a while. Against Trump a Castro VP pick would make absolutely no sense.

 

[brainchild]

Even the polls the Sanders campaign was pointing to (Michigan State) had Clinton with a 5 point lead.

Basically all pollsters got it wrong. A historic upset it looks like.

There's one source that didn't, but I'll be making a thread about it if Bernie wins.

Sit tight.

 

[egruntz]

Fair play to you dude. I tip my hat to your efforts.

Thanks. To start I just contributed through donations and figured others would handle the data entry work and so on. As time went on I realized that this campaign is essentially run by people like me, and if I wanted to make a difference, I'd have to put my skin in the game.

I think the narrative around the "terrible BernieBros" (and there are certainly terrible ones) has been a bummer mostly because it's caused people to disregard the amazing organization efforts of the Sanders subreddit. For a group of people who are all volunteering, without much experience in doing elections, I've been in awe of their passion and organization.

It's really an impressive movement. And...yeah...the more zealous supporters can put out a bad image. That's unfortunately true for any group. Some of them don't just hate other candidates but hate the supporters of those candidates, and that's wrong. I have some friends who love Hillary, and when they saw how engaged I was in supporting Bernie, they started participating more in their own campaign of choice, and that made me feel good that they were inspired to take part in effecting change they wanted to see.

 

[MThanded]

My point is that it wasn't just luck that made Nate wrong.

It's one thing to aggregate polls, but it's another to make predictions about primary elections. You can't just rely on the poll numbers (there is other data out there), and I expect that Nate will be forced to learn from this mistake.

No model is perfect. They are right the majority of the time.

You are barking up the wrong tree.

There's one source that didn't, but I'll be making a thread about it if Bernie wins.

Sit tight.

neilwithhishandsup.jpg

 

[ShironRedshift]

7% of the GOP exit polls were Democrats, so yes it is a valid point. Been said multiple times. Turnout is low due to open primaries and people know Hillary is inevitable by the Delegate math and in truth probably not that excited to go vote for her versus the circus on the GOP side. Bernie has a very enthusiastic crowd though.

Yeah, as a Hillary supporter here in Michigan, I was really tempted to do this myself, especially since the polls looked good for her. But while I was contemplating if I should request a Republican ballot, I realized that Trump was probably going to run away with the state regardless so there would have really been no point in voting for him and if I wanted to counter-vote Trump the most likely 2nd place candidate was looking to be Kasich and I couldn't bring myself to vote for him even if it would take down Trump's lead a bit especially since a brokered convention is looking less and less likely anyway.

So I did end up voting Hillary, but the temptation to request a Republican ballot was really strong and something I very nearly did because of how things were looking for Hillary, so I suppose it's not terribly surprising to hear that other Hillary supporters were thinking the same way I was. Too overconfident.

 

[Valhelm]

If it comes to this, I may need to reveal some...information about how Mr. Kasich has effected my & my family's personal lives. It's not "McCain's Black Baby" level dirt, but I think it might be enough to knock him out of the general.

bruh spill these beans

 

[eyeball_kid]

Basically, the message from tonight is Hillary voters should NOT take anything for granted and crossover or stay home. You want her to win? Go vote, and vote for her, or Bernie is going to start racking up wins.

No, the message from tonight is Hillary can't write off the anger with status quo, especially with middle class voters who feel uncared for, that Bernie's platform is resonating with.

 

[giga]

538 delegate tracker shows that Clinton needed 63 delegates in MI and 23 in MS to stay on target for the nomination. She should hit that MI number and exceed the MS one.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/