Lol, did he give a personal guarantee instead of parsing the numbers? He's said multiple times that he thought the MI polls were kinda off giving Hillary such a huge lead.
Super Tuesday 2016 |OT| The Final Incursion is a double Incursion (Mar 5-15 contests)
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Lol, did he give a personal guarantee instead of parsing the numbers? He's said multiple times that he thought the MI polls were kinda off giving Hillary such a huge lead.
Reddit is (way) too anti-Hillary, gaf is too anti-Bernie. With the threat of Trump/Cruz, I don't get how we let this infighting get so bad.
boiled goose
good with gravy
Bernie Bros is worse, but yeah, both are unnecessary. Let's try to keep a somewhat elevated discussion here.
Fine Ham Abounds
Member
Superidiots...?
Everyone apparently polled the wrong people. It's pretty wild.
Let's hope so.
Calamari41
41 > 38
I wonder how things might be affected on the Dem side if Trump wraps his nomination up next week and starts going in hard on Hillary full time.
Dr_LucienSanchez
Banned
Probably the weirdest thing in this election cycle is seeing so many self-proclaimed progressives actually foaming at the mouth in anger a politician like Sanders. I mean, I get preferring your candidate of choice, but one would think that if you care about leftist policies in America, you wouldn't mind having a Bernie Sanders having as big a stage as possible for as long as possible.
But I guess he's just pooping on the party for many people, so to say.
FTFY
Square2015
Member
What's the delegate count without the supers?
The dems have their system rigged for establishment only, completely undemocratic. Why the hell do they have this in place?
The dems have their system rigged for establishment only, completely undemocratic. Why the hell do they have this in place?
I think the honest concern is that the Dems beat themselves up so much before the general that neither candidate is electable. That's the sense I get.
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/michigan
Guys this is saying that Bernie walks away with 10 more delegates from Michigan too?
So Google was right?
I really don't understand how 2% = 10 delegates. I mean I'm glad, but can someone elaborate?
Guys this is saying that Bernie walks away with 10 more delegates from Michigan too?
So Google was right?
I really don't understand how 2% = 10 delegates. I mean I'm glad, but can someone elaborate?
Epsilon-delta
Banned
Big difference between kinda off and the worst in polling history.
But shit happens, and hopefully everyone learns how or why it went all wrong.
maabus1999
Member
Bernie isn't going to catch Clinton in pledged either. There is no winner take all and Bernie is not going to win by 30 points in every state post Mar 15th.
I have seen multiple elections were I live where the governing party was guaranteed to go down in defeat by like 5+ or even 10+ percentage points, but they win the election anyway. This primary upset is bigger than all of those other upsets I witnessed. Did anyone think this upset was even possible today.
eyeball_kid
Member
You gotta be kidding. The lefty media is definitely pro-Hillary. Just look at the pieces in the daily beast and huffpo the past few weeks. Even tonight on NPR, they were quick to couch the Bernie win as "but he has little chance of winning because delegates".
So that the establishment decides who becomes the nominee.
Still a 200 delegate gap between the two. In 2008 a 100 delegate gap was seen as (and actually was) insurmountable.
The supers are there to stop a Trump situation.
754 Clinton
541 Sanders
That is what the NYT has. So she is holding a 200+ delegate count lead even without supers.
Do Americans realize that compared to most of the civilized world, even Clinton appears as a moderate right-winger? Even David Cameron and Harper wouldn't dare attack gay rights (Cameron even supported it) so you can't use the argument that Hillary is liberal in terms of minorities and social groups. Republicans on are a whole different level of the right, but Clinton isn't exactly impressive as a progressive either. So much for LiberalGAF.
Well, it's accurate.
Afaik, there's no precedent for superdelegates flipping a primary. Seems to mostly be media hype.
eBay Huckster
Member
Bear in mind that just counting the states that have voted so far, Obama had almost exactly a 100-delegate lead.
Square2015
Member
The great debate showing two nights ago in Michigan really changed things.
I'm pretty tired of this argument.
Probably the takeaway from the fact that many American progressives don't like Sanders is that progressivism is complex and multi-layered and Sanders is only a good representative of one specific layer.
Again, remember that Sanders didn't just lose the South -- Southern primary voters deemed him less trustworthy and less liberal than Hillary Clinton. There is an important message to be gleaned from that fact.
maabus1999
Member
Not all delegates are assigned yet. It is complicated as they are not all assigned by state vote.
Vestal
Junior Member
Unless he figures out how the fuck to convey his message to minorities he is. I'm sorry but his message outside of his core strong beliefs is shit, and he needs to fix that.
Loads of huge states ahead of her as well, Florida, New York, North Carolina
538 can't do anything if every single poll is inaccurate.
That's like setting odds on a football game if all the stats in the database inaccurate.
OpinionatedCyborg
Member
There are statewide delegates and congressional ones... and often varying rules for both. This is where the delegate math gets wonky. Usually statewide delegates are proportional. Sometimes congressional ones are proportional. Sometimes they're winner take all. Sometimes they're something else entirely. It's possible Bernie won more congressional delegates. I'm not really following the democrat race, so I can't comment specifiaclly on Michigan.
Come general election if it's Trump v Bernie you have Bernies more 'extreme' views being played up by the GOP and in Trump v Hillary you have the 'establishment vs non-establishment' narrative when clearly there are a lot people on both sides unhappy with the establishment.
Which one would be a bigger hurdle depends on who you ask.
I personally feel more sympathy for the Bernie v Trump scenario because I can directly relate to how people would not bother to vote for the status quo. I'd sooner cheer Trump's assassination than vote for him given his awful views on minorities but as a younger voter either way I'm going to be fucked come next inevitable economic depression without serious wealth redistribution on the table.
Which one would be a bigger hurdle depends on who you ask.
I personally feel more sympathy for the Bernie v Trump scenario because I can directly relate to how people would not bother to vote for the status quo. I'd sooner cheer Trump's assassination than vote for him given his awful views on minorities but as a younger voter either way I'm going to be fucked come next inevitable economic depression without serious wealth redistribution on the table.
To prevent radicals like Bernie from winning the nomination.
The system is quite literally made to ensure that people like Clinton succeed. The system will almost certainly allow her to do so, but if Bernie begins doing substantially better than Clinton, most superdelegates will switch their allegiance.
Calamari41
41 > 38
I'm not sure how things were being predicted around here, but a year ago both primaries were basically widely considered to be formalities for both Hillary and Jeb. Romney didn't enter the race because he deemed Jeb to be unstoppable.
Bernie doesn't really help himself here by responding to "you're a one issue candidate" with five minutes speaking on exactly that one issue. There is more to his platform but he is reluctant to talk about it anywhere outside his website.
Hasphat'sAnts
Member
We'll see what happens in Florida/Ohio/Illinois next week.
Michigan might've been a fluke. But if any of those three fall Bernie's side, then the pollsters, the dudes who make a living off of this stuff, has got some real soul-searching to do.
Michigan might've been a fluke. But if any of those three fall Bernie's side, then the pollsters, the dudes who make a living off of this stuff, has got some real soul-searching to do.
Already Torn
Banned
I guess for the same reason the Republican Party probably wishes such a thing existed right now.
Elfforkusu
Member
Bernie did it? Goddamn!
Gotta keep it up though, a lot of ground to make up.
Gotta keep it up though, a lot of ground to make up.
boiled goose
good with gravy
Nah. Arguing over progressive issues is good. as long as the debate is honest, then it's all good vetting. Anything honest that comes up now will come up in the general.
It's not like the republicans are playing patty cakes.
"Let's not argue" is typical weak Dem loser attitude. People dont want partisan political pandering. They want a battle of ideas.
.... I am just saying that even conservative figures of other countries hold positions that Democrats would have. Unless you are parodying HillaryGAF.
She is still up by 200 pledged delegates... Why do people think this is a minor amount?
eBay Huckster
Member
I get the feeling OH/IL are going to be close, but not 20%-error close.
Rafa=FedKilla
Banned
Yeah, Jeb talked him out of it. Haha
Vestal
Junior Member
Were you not here 8 years ago?
THAT WAS A FUCKING BLOODBATH of a Primary. Compared to that, Bernie and Hillary are in love.
The same thing happened with Obama in 2008, the super delegates swung initially to Clinton, but as the race tightened up they eventually flipped to Obama. What allowed Obama to eventually win the nomination is that he kept it close in most states, won some big states by large margins (Illinois, Virginia, Georgia) and wasn't completely eviscerated in the South like Sanders was/is.
I don't think you're blowing many minds pointing out the USA veers right further than other developed nations.
Hell, even Bernie has some positions that would be labelled as a right wing nightmare in other Western nations.
ARE YOU KIDDING ME? THAT'S CALLED REALITY. We gotta let this process play out, and he's a good candidate that deserves to see this out. But what's the math that gets him to the nomination? can you lay that out?
As bad as it is on our side (outside of Reddit, it's not that bad as most of us that support one will support the other too), the GOP has redefined electoral chaos. It would suck to have the least popular of your candidates (by far) as the frontrunner, with an equally hated choice in second place. We're downright cordial compared to their side.
And yeah, a president Trump or Cruz scares the shit out of me. I don't care how we do it, or who with, as long as we keep those nutjobs out of office.
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