Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Just like every project he's ever worked on. Under budget and on time.
Super Tuesday 2016 |OT| The Final Incursion is a double Incursion (Mar 5-15 contests)
- Thread starter B-Dubs
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Just like every project he's ever worked on. Under budget and on time.
OpinionatedCyborg
Member
Sounds like I shouldn't have made a hullaballoo about it being a caucus then.
Good lord, what a night for Trump. If they can't stop him in Florida.....
Basileus777
Member
Well I laughed;
https://www.reddit.com/r/s4p
https://www.reddit.com/r/s4p
Trump won Dearborn, Michigan. The most Muslim city in America.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
I'm not surprised. Given that he got fewer votes than Bernie or Hillary did, I would imagine the racist white people who don't like living around muslims flocked to him, while the actual muslims voted democratic.
Almost certainly.
SolarPowered
Member
To think that just a month ago democrats were screaming to the hills about Bernie needing to drop out in order for Hillary to properly prepare for the juggernaut that is Little Marco. Everyone thought he was a Rottweiler when he's really more of a Chihuahua. If he stays in and ends up third in Florida he is done for years to come. What a low energy guy!
King Tubby
Member
Rubio: I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ads on billboards off the shoulder of I-71. I watched C-notes glitter in the dark near Rupert Murdoch's taint. All these moments will be lost in time, like tears...in...rain. Time to die.
So to preface this, I've never actually been to Dearborn more than like twice, just the surrounding areas, so my opinion may be completely off base.
I would not be shocked at all by this. Dearborn, like a lot of Michigan cities, has quite a bit of rural areas around it that, if it's like other Michigan cities, are still part of the city. Speaking from experience of living in Rural Michigan, the people here are about what you'd expect. Extremely white, very conservative, and often religious. You can find a lot of great people, for sure, but you also find a lot of backwards asshats.
hodayathink
Member
So I was running some numbers trying to get an idea of how close this was, and I saw 538 said 7% of the voters in Michigan's Republican primary were Democrats. There were a little over a 1.3 million Republican votes, which means that would have been about 91,000 Democrats did actually go out and vote but didn't vote for a Democratic candidate. If those 91k voters had split at the ratio that registered Dems did in Michigan (57-41) it basically halves his win (he wins by about 15k). This was a great showing for him, but he has to do better than this next week to keep this "momentum" narrative going.
Rubio wishes he'd ever shown as brightly as Roy Batty.
OpinionatedCyborg
Member
Their staying in until the bitter end only helps Trump. They will deny Cruz votes and ensure Trump continues to win pluralities. Since most of the upcoming states are WTA, Trump will glide to a delegate majority. However, their staying in for the short term may work against Trump if they win both Florida and Ohio. Kasich looks to have a slight edge in Ohio. Rubio is a big fat mess in Florida and appears on his way to defeat. People are now suggesting that Marco will be pressured out of the race so that support can, hopfully, coalesce around Cruz in Florida.
If Trump wins both Florida and Ohio, the race is likely over. Trump is strong in the remaining WTA states. Cruz is fairly weak. Even though exit polls have shown that most Republicans loath Trump (he is often the third or fourth choice for voters of other candidates, he is not trusted, other voters would not be satisfied with him as the nominee, etc.) and even though Cruz has been picking up support at the expense of Rubio, Trump appears to be too strong, particularyl in the upcoming states. It really does boil down to March 15th -- a lot of those states favour Trump, but not overwhelmingly. However, tonight's performance seems to show that Trump's support is holding firm, and he is bound to get a lot of positive media coverage for winning 3/4 states, two resoundingly.
vicissitudes
Banned
He has lots of Muslim friends. He's mentioned it at multiple rallies.
I'm not even sure how rubio is going to win florida with all the negative attention he is sure going to get after his abysmal showing yesterday. I think Kasich has a higher chance of winning Ohio then Rubio has of winning Florida. I really think he should not waste his time with Florida and get out the race before he destroys his future in the republican party. Kasich also needs to get out of the race eventually to.
OuterLimits
Member
Kind of interesting useless statistic. Romney got roughly 410,000 votes in Michigan in 2012. Trump got about 480,000 yesterday. In Mississippi Santorum won with 96,000 votes in 2012, Romney got 91,000. Trump got 191,000 and Cruz 146,000.
I haven't lived in the US for the past few years so I don't really know what is going on, but I can't quite get my head around why people are voting for Hillary over Sanders. I can only come up with three possible explanations:
People are afraid the republicans actually have a shot at the White House, so out of fear thinking Hillary has the best brand recognition they are choosing her.
The people haven't heard or understood what Sanders plan is.
The majority are centrists who are okay with Washington and corporate america's symbiotic relationship and want to maintain the status quo.
What's going on here? Has the Democratic Party really given up on progress?
People are afraid the republicans actually have a shot at the White House, so out of fear thinking Hillary has the best brand recognition they are choosing her.
The people haven't heard or understood what Sanders plan is.
The majority are centrists who are okay with Washington and corporate america's symbiotic relationship and want to maintain the status quo.
What's going on here? Has the Democratic Party really given up on progress?
LizardKing
Member
There is nothing rural in or around Dearborn. It is strictly suburbia through and through. It's also not the religious conservative type place. My guess is that the Republicans that are there are not voting on the Muslim issue. Also, while it is the most Muslim city in the US there are plenty of non Muslims (majority are still not Muslim or Arab). It doesn't feel like you are living in little Arabia or something like that and you don't have to have a tolerance towards Muslims to live there. So you can still think of it as typical US suburbs for that region of the country especially in regards to the city's Republicans.
But of course Trump is winning among the minority of the city. Most people and most Muslims are dems.
Trump cleaned up, especially when you consider the GOP throwing everything but the kitchen sink at him over the past week.
If he can land Florida it's over. The GOP needs Rubio to pull out in the desperate hope that Cruz can take enough of his support to defeat Trump. I don't think it will work, though. I also doubt the GOP can bring themselves to really help Cruz out.
If he can land Florida it's over. The GOP needs Rubio to pull out in the desperate hope that Cruz can take enough of his support to defeat Trump. I don't think it will work, though. I also doubt the GOP can bring themselves to really help Cruz out.
OuterLimits
Member
Actually CAIR did a poll recently of 2000 Muslims in Super Tuesday states and who they favor in the election. Not surprisingly Clinton and Sanders dominated. A bit more surprising was Trump led the Republican field albeit with only 11%.
The breakdown was Hillary 46% , Bernie 25% Trump 11%, Rubio 4%, Cruz 2%, Kasich 1%
The breakdown was Hillary 46% , Bernie 25% Trump 11%, Rubio 4%, Cruz 2%, Kasich 1%
SoRuffShoNuff
Member
North Carolina and Kentucky aren't in the South?
OuterLimits
Member
Kind of surprised Trump easily won Hawaii. I thought Rubio or Cruz would win there. Especially since Cruz has won most of the caucuses. He did do rather poorly in Idaho, but still came in a distant 2nd. Winning 3 out of 4 was definitely a good night for him.
Cruz continues to lose the SEC states which he really needed. Had he done better in the South, he would easily be on his way to the nomination.
Cruz continues to lose the SEC states which he really needed. Had he done better in the South, he would easily be on his way to the nomination.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
I think it's more indicative of the republican party fighting desperately for the soul of the GOP than it is about some groundswell of enthusiasm. In 2012, there were probably a lot more voters who were fine with either candidate than there are in 2016. This time around you've got Cruz voters who really don't want Trump, Trump voters who really don't want Cruz and Kasich/Rubio voters who really don't want either.
aspiegamer
Member
1) Duh! This is the most consequential general election in a long time, with an open SCOTUS seat directly attached to the Presidential winner. The priority needs to be the candidate with the best chance at a win. Clinton might not be as "progressive" as Sanders in some areas but she'll sure as hell appoint a liberal-leaning justice. Setting up the court for 20 years of liberal control is, frankly, more important than the personal agenda of the next President. Sorry. To elaborate further on needing a "safe" candidate, many of the Democratic base rely on Government programs and assistance in some way. They'd take literally any Democrat who wouldn't cut at that stuff versus a Republican who might. They're voting for their own quality of life and want it to be as sure a thing as possible. This is why Sanders base is affluent, educated, White. People that don't need the government help. Who wouldn't be as directly hurt under entitlement cuts.
2) We understand it. We also understand that it's 99% abso-fucking-lutely impossible to do. As one specific example, I absolutely pity kids being told they can have free college. So gullible. Of course they'll support him 9:1 over Clinton because he lies to their face and tells them literally anything they want to hear, as if it's possible. He cannot simply make these things happen. It is not possible now. Period.
Electability (across racial lines, especially), realistic expectations, and qualified candidate. There's your summary TLDR of Clinton vs Sanders from your average Clinton supporter. I even like most of Sanders' platform! But I've been through the lists of promises from candidates before and I won't fall for it again, and those candidates were way less out of the mainstream than Sanders. Anyone who's gone through even 1 open general election before knows better. What many Sanders supporters have envisioned is not How This Shit Works. This is Serious Business and all Democrats should be treating it that way. An Electoral College win is easier than a popular vote win right now. It's a gigantic advantage Democrats currently have. They cannot afford to screw this up.
Get a liberal Congress in and the ideas might be more mainstream in 2020-24. The US just isn't ready right now. Random factoid: In annual AP studies, more Americans said they'd be more likely to vote for a self-admitted atheist than a self-proclaimed Socialist (both around 60%). It's a dirty word here.
StopMakingSense
Member
There's a reason Bernie gets lower trustworthiness numbers in the South than Clinton.
Of the 4 winner take all contests next Tuesday I'm most interested in the 2/2 split decision. Cruz wins Missouri, Kasich wins Ohio, and Trump wins Florida and Illinois. There's enough of a hope left in that scenario to stop Trump, because Kasich can then perform well in the midwest and northeast while Cruz can continue to win the smaller states like Wyoming or Montana. Also there's a dead month until the primaries kick back up again in late April for groups to pour lots of money into anti-Trump ads. It's probably not enough to stop Trump but it could at least significantly weaken him as he can't pivot to the general and more and more Republicans come out against him in the last ditch effort.
Yeah we don't want to risk another Bill Clinton in the white house.
Hawaii really let me down.
http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/31404258/hawaii-republican-caucus-to-take-place-tuesday
http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/31404258/hawaii-republican-caucus-to-take-place-tuesday
This idea is why they aren't voting Sanders.
Skimmed the last 30 pages. Good shit. Some really rattled cages in here poligaf/US-Gaf.
I particularly enjoy the (very popular!) narrative that Clinton needs to get the nomination because she is the only one who will win. The establishment candidate against the guy campaigning as the anti-establishment candidate making seasoned politicans look like clowns on a national stage. Literally the only person who Trump is polling to beat. Adding gasoline to a fire is super effective!
Its hillaryious. Months more of this and then the generals? Thanks guys.
I particularly enjoy the (very popular!) narrative that Clinton needs to get the nomination because she is the only one who will win. The establishment candidate against the guy campaigning as the anti-establishment candidate making seasoned politicans look like clowns on a national stage. Literally the only person who Trump is polling to beat. Adding gasoline to a fire is super effective!
Its hillaryious. Months more of this and then the generals? Thanks guys.
Dirtyshubb
Member
The best part is the whole idea that Clinton has the better chance of beating the Republicans yet Sanders polls better than anyone against them and Clinton actually loses in some states.
But of course those stats don't matter for reasons. Just like Sanders and Trump would never get to the position they currently are in according to these same people at the start of the race....
shinra-bansho
Member
I'm not sure what states are being referred to, but they presumably matter. What doesn't matter is general election polling this far out that pits a Sanders untouched and unscathed by any GOP attack machine, essentially generic D, against random generic R Republican e.g. Cruz or Rubio or Kasich, or the universally recognised and oft-reviled Donald Trump.
hodayathink
Member
Someone really needs to create a thread showing the general election polls from 2011-early 2012 for that election just to show people how useless those things really are at this point.
StopMakingSense
Member
Oh man I can't wait for the results of this. So easy for Trump to spin that loss into gold.
My bet is.... Kasich. Could be Trump, but I doubt it. DC is very educated. Those that aren't will vote democrat. I live right outside DC in Maryland, and actually grew up in DC. They'll most likely pick the moderate of the bunch or are angry enough to vote for Trump. Just a hunch. I haven't looked over how the city has voted in the past with regards to republicans.
RastaMentality
Banned
What does this mean 🤔
StopMakingSense
Member
DC is a closed primary. And the Dems vote June 14.
Lol, I'm only talking with regards to Trump's vote. I should have been more specific. The majority of uneducated people in DC are black people who will undoubtedly vote democrat. I don't think the educted republicans in DC, at least, will vote for Trump. But I could be off the mark completely for reasons I mentioned in my last comment.
neurosisxeno
Member
The head to heads you're probably thinking are the "Generic Republican\Democrat vs" style of polls that were notoriously inaccurate, because people imagined their idealized person. It wasn't really them imagining Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney when they thought of Generic Republican, it was them imagining Saint Reagan riding in on a gold stead named "Tax Cuts For All" and punching Al Qaeda back into the stone age. Obviously this person doesn't exist.
A better comparison would be from 2008. Since we've got non-incumbents running once again. If we go back and average McCain vs Obama (this is before either were actually nominated) in the month of March, we end up with;
Head To Head:
McCain - 44.6%
Obama - 45.3%
Result: Obama +0.9%
Actual Election
McCain - 45.7%
Obama - 52.9%
Result: Obama +7.2%
Now the flaw here is that Obama brought the noise (being high voter turn-out) and McCain picked a terrible VP. But McCain's ceiling seemed to be about 45%, and the early H2H's still got that part right.
Yeah, I should have been more clear in that comment. It was in regards to Trump's vote, and how he benefits greatly from uneducated people.
benjipwns
Banned
March 8, 2012 RCP Average:
Obama - 49.4
Romney - 44.5
Obama + 4.9
March 10, 2012 RCP Average:
Obama - 48.8
Romney - 45.0
Obama + 3.8
Final Results:
Obama - 51.1
Romney - 47.2
Obama + 3.9
gasp
neurosisxeno
Member
In case you wanted to see a comparison for H2H polls for March 2012 of what Romney looked like up against Obama. Results are;
March Polling Data:
Obama - 47.7%
Romney - 43.4%
Result: Obama +4.3%
Actual Election:
Obama - 51,1%
Romney - 47.2%
Result: Obama +3.9%
Verdict: A bad McCain VP pick turned a decent effort into a guaranteed loss.
March Polling Data:
Obama - 47.7%
Romney - 43.4%
Result: Obama +4.3%
Actual Election:
Obama - 51,1%
Romney - 47.2%
Result: Obama +3.9%
Verdict: A bad McCain VP pick turned a decent effort into a guaranteed loss.
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