Some proper dodgy math there. She is already ahead 218 pledged delegates, he's not outright winning many (any?) states by 30 points like she will (Florida, North Carolina ect).
Super Tuesday 2016 |OT| The Final Incursion is a double Incursion (Mar 5-15 contests)
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Some proper dodgy math there. She is already ahead 218 pledged delegates, he's not outright winning many (any?) states by 30 points like she will (Florida, North Carolina ect).
Well, I imagine something will come out of the immunity given to the staffer that set up her email server and I don't expect it to be a good thing for Hillary or Democrats. Unless it somehow clears her once and for all, I'm worried that at the very least it'll continue to drag it out and make it an issue in the GE. I wish that email thing would just go away but the GOP tactics worked and we can't ignore it.
perfectchaos007
Member
It is indeed amazing...
He was 5'11" just a couple months ago. Now he's 4'11"
Just imagine how lil he will be after getting stomped in Florida
Can we dispel with this fiction that Hillary is rallying the liberal base? That's really far-fetched.
With enough SuperPAC money, Hillary could surely run her campaign from prison. I don't know about being president from prison, though. That would be tough.
boiled goose
good with gravy
I mean, it is not like I will vote for Trump instead of Hillary.
I'm not stupid haha.
The Republicans are still much much worse than the democrats both the specific candidates and in aggregate. But if Hillary or Obama (or Bernie!) have flaws which they do, I'm going to point them out.
Making a compromise is not the same as sacrificing your principles.
Yeah at worst I think it'll be shit to sling for Trump. To which there seems to be a lot. I wonder if he'd use the fact that she's been to his wedding (or whichever way that went). Or if she'd use the fact that he endorsed her.
If those two have to debate I have a feeling that they will both be losing a lot of voters all together since they have a lot of history together in a pretty slimy way that could very well turn off all but the most supportive followers. I've also heard that Trump could get somebody to leak her transcripts of those speaches since he knows people in wallstreet. That could be a problem too.
wtf?
benjipwns
Banned
Hillary would show Bernie who the real Socalist was by following in the footsteps of Eugene Debs. Campaigning from the big house.
Also, I don't know if there would be anything funnier than her winning despite being in prison. And Obama not pardoning her.
maabus1999
Member
The Bernie win in Michigan is probably the best thing for the Democratic Party overall for the GE. Re: It will force Hillary not to take things for granted and also force both Hillary and Bernie to create a huge ground game in Ohio to get the vote out. And we all know how important the ground game in Ohio is for the GE. No matter who wins the nomination, Bernie's MI win will go a long ways in making sure the Dems stay competitive in Ohio on the ground.
boiled goose
good with gravy
Huh?
I have a spreadsheet with current and projected results and that is what I get.
I still have him losing Ohio, Illinois, Florida, California, and New York. Despite this, I still get a Bernie loss by 174 delegates.
He is winning most of the smaller states going forward.
I really don't get the dodgy math accusation, my predictions are pretty neutral and conservative. He might do worse in NC but other than that I dont see any issues. Im not counting super delegates... did you think I was?
Yup. I think a contested primary is good for Hillary and the Dems, despite what HillaryGAF thinks. Don't be so scared guys. Makes it seem like you have something to fear and something to hide.
I'd just really like to see your spreadsheet is all, I mean you know it isn't winner takes all right? I can't see him winning states by huge margins. And there are a lot of unknowns.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/
The Lamonster
Member
They were talking about it on Fox News radio yesterday. It's just more conservative idiocy that won't lead anywhere.
nitekrawlwer
Member
I never asked you to not criticize a party member. Is it not possible to call her out without defaming and implicating the Democratic Party?
I wish people would feel that way about the political reality many Democrats have compromised to. Instead they are labeled as corrupt.
That's actually my biggest issue between the way Hillary and Bernie are going about their campaigns.
Hilary is constantly reinforcing the notion that Bernie and herself agree on most things in terms of the antithesis of a given position, but may have differences on how to get there. She's always quick to push forth the idea that it's the Republicans that are the two candidates true competitors, and while she'd love to become the Democratic nominee - that ultimately a Democrat in the White House is this election's most important end goal.
Bernie on the other hand seems to always draw these arbitrary circles around him, and redefines 'progressive' and 'establishment' based on who overlaps and lays outside of those boundaries respectively. He also constantly takes shots at Democrats, which isn't surprising considering he's 'Independent,' but these are ultimately tactics that prop himself at the expense of the party. He's basically fostered a "my way or the highway" mentality among his base, and has done a terrible job reinforcing the importance of not having a Republican in the White House as this election's most important goal, which runs the risk of disenfranchising much of your base when what you're defining as the solution ultimately doesn't come to fruition due to you not being the nominee.
And this is why there's such a vocal minority (and hopefully not majority) of his base that are threatening to stay at home come election day if he's not the nominee, or vote for someone else - even if that person is a Republican. He seriously needs to squash that shit now, and not push it until after he bows out of the race if he's not the nominee.
benjipwns
Banned
They had to become corrupt in order to compromise with political reality?
Some people overreact:
maabus1999
Member
Honestly many aren't afraid of Bernie per say, but more of Trump's popularity and threat he could be president. No matter what the (worthless) head to head GE polls say, having two anti-establishment, populist candidates in the race makes a massive unknown for how it turns out. Hillary is just seen as a more known quantity on how the GE should react to Hillary, among her supporters who are going to be very risk adverse due to Trump and of course now the possibility of the Supreme Court vacancy. And they have one valid point in that Sanders is running on raising taxes on everyone in exchange for great benefits. That is a big risk politically as the last Dem to try that got annihilated. Bernie's supporters are obviously less risk adverse and more open to massive change, which follows suit with the age of his core supporters.
MysticDistance
Banned
Uhh, what? This sounds like something I'd hear on Fox News, no offense.
Haven't they been trying to indict her for something for years now? I think there was something else they tried to get her on before these emails, which also turned out to be nothing.
Couldn't agree more. Whether Bernie or Hillary wins, it's for the best. I think Bernie needs to run his campaign a bit more like Hillary in that respect; that him and Hillary have similarities, but have differences on how they want to get there and how they want to do it, but that the Republicans this year are what's dangerous for us.
maabus1999
Member
Bernie has done honestly a very poor job reaching out to the establishment correctly as seen in the Super Delegates, which is honestly key as it effects down ticket races tremendously. And Bernie's policies honestly need WAY more down ticket wins versus what Clinton would push for (Hint: both are probably going to get screwed in Congress for the majority of items).
boiled goose
good with gravy
I mean. I think the democratic party IS corrupt, so yeah...
I don't think Hillary is particularly corrupt. Just playing along with the corrupt system like most other people.
For context, the Republicans are MORE corrupt, so I'm not implicating the democrats unfairly here.
gutter_trash
Banned
even without the Super Delegates, he still is trailing by 200 pledged delegates.
meaning that he needs to exceed over 50%+ in each remaining States.
He will do well in the North-West and parts of the Mid-West but he still has has wall to climb in the remaining big states like Florida, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Pennsylvanian, Ohio and California
benjipwns
Banned
nitekrawlwer
Member
I'm asserting that they are characterized as corrupt for comprising to the political reality of money in politics.
To add to my previous post, 538 does a great job of highlighting why the math doesn't work out for Bernie.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/
He needs to hit/surpass all his targets from this point forward.
Except, over the first 22 contests he's missed his target 14 times, matched 2 times and surpassed 6 times by (2, 1, 2, 4, 1, 2) (12) delegates.
Hillary however has surpassed her targets 14 times, matched 2 times and missed 6 times. Her surpasses are (5, 3, 7, 9, 1, 4, 9, 5, 1, 11, 22, 10, 4, 11,) (102).
So saying Bernie is coming within 170 of Hillary just sounds laughable. Especially when the site has been generous with Bernies targets, like 50 of North Carolinas 107 (In reality it'll be 30~)
The only noticable primary defeat he's won against Hillary (other than Vermont and NH for obvious reasons) is Oklahoma, and that was about 10 points, there rest have been super close.)
So show me where he is gonna start leading primaries by 30 points to make up the gap, when he's managed 10 points only once outside his home state.
Also want to highlight, Bernie has done well in caucuses and his home state and bordering. There is only one worthwhile Caucus left (Washington) the rest are primaries.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/
He needs to hit/surpass all his targets from this point forward.
Except, over the first 22 contests he's missed his target 14 times, matched 2 times and surpassed 6 times by (2, 1, 2, 4, 1, 2) (12) delegates.
Hillary however has surpassed her targets 14 times, matched 2 times and missed 6 times. Her surpasses are (5, 3, 7, 9, 1, 4, 9, 5, 1, 11, 22, 10, 4, 11,) (102).
So saying Bernie is coming within 170 of Hillary just sounds laughable. Especially when the site has been generous with Bernies targets, like 50 of North Carolinas 107 (In reality it'll be 30~)
The only noticable primary defeat he's won against Hillary (other than Vermont and NH for obvious reasons) is Oklahoma, and that was about 10 points, there rest have been super close.)
So show me where he is gonna start leading primaries by 30 points to make up the gap, when he's managed 10 points only once outside his home state.
Also want to highlight, Bernie has done well in caucuses and his home state and bordering. There is only one worthwhile Caucus left (Washington) the rest are primaries.
This is almost offensive.
Sorry that Hillary's base doesn't look like rallies of young white college students, maybe it's not good optics. But that doesn't look like me, and I (and people like me) matter to Hillary's base, and the Democratic part as a whole.
Hillary is dominating Bernie, utterly, in delegates and actual number of votes. So to continue making the case that Hillary isn't exciting or bringing people out in defense of BERNIE at this point? It's like you're telling those people who got excited, came out, and in much larger numbers "Oh, you don't count."
gutter_trash
Banned
those people are not excited in midterms, so who cares about them
balladofwindfishes
Member
Nobody gets excited for mid terms except the elderly.
nitekrawlwer
Member
So is Sanders corrupt? He's using a corrupt party establishment to further his political aspirations.
You should add, his base is young which means a big presence online, that's why it looks like Bernie is generating more excitement than Hillary.
Reminds me of Black Friday console sales, everyone saying PS3 is flying off the shelves but 360 kept destroying it ect.
I need you to explain this logic. Smells bad, please clarify.
Shame on you for trying to put us Sanders supporters in a box! I'm not young, nor white, nor a college student. I have other Sanders supporters in my circle who are none of these things. Yes, Sanders has massive leads among those demographics but that doesn't delimit his support.
That would be hilarious but Obama will pardon her. She served on his cabinet. He kind of has to, lol.
DR2K
Banned
Everytime Bernie gets a win or a loss it's spun into a huge win. Marco Rubio wishes his base were so out of touch with reality.
That's how underdogs work.
It doesn't delimit his support, the fact that his support among those other groups have shown demonstrable limitations delimits it. There's no other way to spin it. It's like saying some minorities voted for Romney, so stating the fact that his support is mostly white folk is delimiting his base.
Your Entertainer
Member
Just like you're implicitly painting Sanders' supporters as white, young college students. Get over yourself.
Kettle meet pot
Some polling stations in Michigan were running out of Dem ballots.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-democrats-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37493541
For the democratic primary: "turnout among Democrats in Michigan down (and turnout among independents up) from 2008."
http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/mi/Dem
Registered democrats went for Hillary, but turnout was lower than in 2008. Independent turnout was bigger than in 2008 and they went for Bernie, tipping the scales to give him the win.
He had rallies where there's a large portion of minorities. But go ahead and keep saying this nonsense. I'm a minority and just like other Bernie supporters here on gaf that are minorities, they know many minorities in support of Bernie.
boiled goose
good with gravy
He won arab Americans and split young African Americans in Michigan.
From my understanding he does well among all demographics women, minorities when it comes to young voters
Saying he appeals younger voters is fair, implying he appeals only to white voters is unfair.
It would be like saying Hillary only appeals to southern African American Democrats just because she does better in that demographic.
I am worried for Bernie. I'm worried for both. But you're not accounting for the HUGE lead Clinton had coming into the race. You're not accounting for the fact that Bernie is an underdog. Before we got into this race, Sanders was written off completely. When he announced his candidacy, I never expected him to do this well -- nobody did. He's done as well as he has because of the excitement gap. My point is that if people were just as excited for Hillary, she'd be crushing Bernie as people expected her to before any voting started.
boiled goose
good with gravy
This is very fair . Haha
To be fair Bernie was relatively unknown until recently. But a fair fair point
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