Super Tuesday 2016 |OT| The Final Incursion is a double Incursion (Mar 5-15 contests)

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benjipwns said:
It's not updated with last night, but playing around with this you can see that just using his national averages, Trump basically has a really strong inside track on the nomination as long as he merely wins enough WTA's and doesn't get beat too hard in other states: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/the_gop_race_for_delegates_an_interactive_tool.html
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Nice site, doesn't seem to understand winner takes all tho?

Oh wait it does, just not all delegates.
 
TyrantII said:
If that's the idea, it isn't materializing. If it isn't materializing in the party, how does it in the national elections?

I got behind Obama in 2008 because there were strong signs he was materializing that support and there was a wave election building.

I'm not seeing that in the data points with Bernie. Am I wrong?
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A fair concern and critique regarding "political revolution".

Regarding just the general though, Sanders does better with independents and Republicans so keep that in mind.
 
benjipwns said:
Also, I haven't played enough of Fallout 3 to write a Marxist Analysis of the Fallout 3 Economy:
http://www.lulu.com/shop/jason-unru...llout-society/paperback/product-22003914.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcI6tT9Q2bg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFT_aTKRwi4
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Skimming for tidbits is quite interesting indeed.

(While salvaging)
"...After all, profit is not possible without an unequal exchange."

Thanks for these -- I love the internet giving a voice to all walks of life. It's honestly great.
 
JP_ said:
The whole premise of Sander's campaign is to get the public excited and engaged to get things done. Promising tiny steps of progress doesn't get anybody excited.

The "political revolution" idea isn't easy and it'll certainly be a challenge for Sanders if he gets the chance, but is it unprecedented? I think what Sanders is proposing is basically what happened with FDR, LBJ, and Reagan.
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Don't compare Bernie to those three, he hadn't earned it yet. Don't let Michigan get to your head.

Say what you want about Hillary's delegate lead, but she's beating Bernie in actual votes too. And by almost 2 million votes.

If you want to have a discussion about who has momentum who's, exciting people, and who's rallying the base, well, All signs point to Hillary doing that.

Bernie still has a LONG way to go in proving the excitement he's generating is legit and something democrats can bank on in November. He hasn't done that yet. At all.
 
boiled goose said:
A fair concern and critique regarding "political revolution".

Regarding just the general though, Sanders does better with independents and Republicans so keep that in mind.
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I'll eat my Keyboard if Sanders gets a significant GOP vote should he get the nomination. It won't happen.

I'm under the view there's no such thing as indepedents. The data sort of shows that they are just as ideological as anyone, just infrequent voters. They usually only move off their butts if they are scared or inspired.
 
Damerman said:
Oh dear.

Wtf lol. I mean, i respect his dogmatic socialist views, but now i just realized he has an unhealthy obsession.
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He's been doing it for seven years, has thousands of videos on youtube.

Production values have really shot up though. The splitscreens in the new videos as if he were reporting live kill me.

I notice he dropped the #1 Marxist on YouTube tagline though. Disappointing.
 
inm8num2 said:
Carly Fiorina Endorses Ted Cruz
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Knows she can't get on board the HMS Trump, so she's getting with Cruz. Hoping maybe he'll make a play for women & anti-establishment and put her name in the VP slot? Or maybe some other cabinet position.

It wouldn't be a smart move for Cruz but McCain did his stunt VP pick in 2008, anything is possible now. I think concern over dealing with a Clinton ticket is going to make the GOP get whacky again. I can't even believe that Cruz has become an option for establishment Republicans. Talk about the lesser of two evils.
 
Miles X said:
I crunched some numbers.

If Trump keeps winning the eastern coast (like he has been from north to south) and clinches California, he should get more than enough to get to that magic delegate number needed. That's with losing all those mid western states to Cruz and Ohio to Kasich.
750px-Republican_Party_presidential_primaries_results_by_county%2C_2016.svg.png


I mean look at this, he's absolutely dominated, and the rest left are mostly winner takes all.

I bet the GOP are shitting themselves.
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Is the blue Trump? WTF why would TRump get votes along the border!
 
I'm beginning to wonder how strong the "I'll vote for anyone but fucking Hillary" factor that permeates middle class whites in both parties is actually going to play into GE. All I care about is keeping Cruz or Trump out of office. I hope more people feel the same more than they hate Hillary.
 
Fine Ham Abounds said:
I'm beginning to wonder how strong the "I'll vote for anyone but fucking Hillary" factor that permeates middle class whites in both parties is actually going to play into GE. All I care about is keeping Cruz or Trump out of office. I hope more people feel the same more than they hate Hillary.
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I think things will be fine in the end.

I'd be worried if Bernie was consistently blowing her out with the white vote, but in most states they're roughly splitting them in half. It speaks more of Bernie's message resonating than Hillary having a genuine problem with the white vote.
 
TyrantII said:
I'll eat my Keyboard if Sanders gets a significant GOP vote should he get the nomination. It won't happen.

I'm under the view there's no such thing as indepedents. The data sort of shows that they are just as ideological as anyone, just infrequent voters. They usually only move off their butts if they are scared or inspired.
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There are significant numbers of GOP voters who think Trump is a fucking maniac and Hitler-esque, most of the republicans I know can't explain their dislike of Hillary but they can't say enough about how stupid and dangerous they think Trump is. Don't be so sure.
 
Arkeband said:
There are significant numbers of GOP voters who think Trump is a fucking maniac and Hitler-esque, most of the republicans I know can't explain their dislike of Hillary but they can't say enough about how stupid and dangerous they think Trump is. Don't be so sure.
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This is 100% my experience with the conservatives in my family and whom I work with. The only encouragement I've gotten for the GE (Hillary or Bernie) is the possibility they will stay the fuck home if Trump is the nominee. I've spent 16 years hearing their (rational and completely irrational) vitriol towards Hillary, but I'm hearing a lot of the same "how can people be so fucking stupid" lines usually reserved for her supporters also levied at Trump supporters.
 
How many open primaries are in the Super Tuesday States? If they have enough in there, Sanders might actually pull through in one piece.
 
Arkeband said:
There are significant numbers of GOP voters who think Trump is a fucking maniac and Hitler-esque, most of the republicans I know can't explain their dislike of Hillary but they can't say enough about how stupid and dangerous they think Trump is. Don't be so sure.
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Yup. They will either stay home or vote for Hillary, which is more or less the same thing.

TyrantII said:
Personally I don't see Bernie winninh the general election. People are vastly underestimating the united derp they'll pull out to slander him.

The Clinton's are sort of inoculated at this point. Bernie is a nationally unknown senator from Vermont with that "Socialist" tag line. And the media is going to trump out their fair and balanced both sides cards.
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What frustrates me is people having this airy-fairy feeling about Bernie not winning the general, but god forbid, posting the *constant* stream of polls which show Bernie outperforming Hillary is a big no-no!

I'm sorry, but can someone please tell me which data is more correct: polling data or vibes?*

*yes, I'm well aware of the irony of such a question on such a momentous day in polling history lol
 
TyrantII said:
I'll eat my Keyboard if Sanders gets a significant GOP vote should he get the nomination. It won't happen.

I'm under the view there's no such thing as indepedents. The data sort of shows that they are just as ideological as anyone, just infrequent voters. They usually only move off their butts if they are scared or inspired.
Click to expand...

You may be right about some things here, but not everything. Take a look.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...ndent-voters/2012/05/17/gIQAZmGyWU_story.html

"Perhaps the biggest myth about independents is that they are closet partisans or “leaners” who are independent in name only but regularly vote with one party. True, about half of independents do fit into this category, but the rest are truly independent; their allegiance swings from election to election"
"With that kind of track record, it is impossible to say that independent voters are reliably partisan"
"Independent voters are more diverse in age, race, gender and income than Republican and Democratic voters"

This one is particularly true about me.
"“both parties care more about special interests than about average Americans”

Also this one.
"Independents take voting seriously but are less moved by partisan appeals"

"By attacking Hillary you are hurting the Democrats!" Like I give a shit. It's not my fault if she has flaws as a candidate.
 
Fine Ham Abounds said:
I'm beginning to wonder how strong the "I'll vote for anyone but fucking Hillary" factor that permeates middle class whites in both parties is actually going to play into GE. All I care about is keeping Cruz or Trump out of office. I hope more people feel the same more than they hate Hillary.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure anymore.

CNN had points last night that since Trump is doing so well with working class whites that he could steal votes away from Clinton unless she taps into that area (Sanders himself seems to be beating her there, at least in the Michigan area).

If Trump hits the manufacturing/trade part hard, I could see votes going to Trump over Hillary.

I don't know if there are polls are studies that disprove that thinking so correct me if I''m wrong.
 
royalan said:
Don't compare Bernie to those three, he hadn't earned it yet. Don't let Michigan get to your head.

Say what you want about Hillary's delegate lead, but she's beating Bernie in actual votes too. And by almost 2 million votes.

If you want to have a discussion about who has momentum who's, exciting people, and who's rallying the base, well, All signs point to Hillary doing that.

Bernie still has a LONG way to go in proving the excitement he's generating is legit and something democrats can bank on in November. He hasn't done that yet. At all.
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lol, chill man. I never said he's proved it yet.

Pretty laughable to say Hillary is exciting people, though. If that were true, Sanders wouldn't have the numbers he has -- he was basically a nobody before jumping into the race while Hillary was assumed to be the nominee before it even started. I'm a Bernie fan with very tempered expectations and I expect to be supporting Hillary in the GE, but she's undeniably compromised and I'm not willing to put all my eggs in her basket.
 
JP_ said:
lol, chill man. I never said he's proved it yet.

Pretty laughable to say Hillary is exciting people, though. If that were true, Sanders wouldn't have the numbers he has -- he was basically a nobody before jumping into the race while Hillary was assumed to be the nominee before it even started. I'm a Bernie fan with very tempered expectations and I expect to be supporting Hillary in the GE, but she's undeniably compromised and I'm not willing to put all my eggs in her basket.
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She's exciting different people than he is. The Democratic Party and more broadly, the coalition that tends to vote Democratic is HUGE.

Just because they're not loud about it online doesn't mean they're not excited.
 
Looking at the delegate math, it is still a long shot for the Bern.

I still predict him finishing ~170 delegates short.
His losses in the South just way too devastating. Definitely a big failure and mistake strategically with his campaign.

If he lost these southern states 60-40 or even just 70-30 instead of 75-25 (50 points!!), he would be the strong favorite at the moment to take it.
 
boiled goose said:
Looking at the delegate math, it is still a long shot for the Bern.

I still predict him finishing ~170 delegates short.
His losses in the South just way too devastating. Definitely a big failure and mistake strategically with his campaign.

If he lost these southern states 60-40 or even just 70-30 instead of 75-25 (50 points!!), he would be the strong favorite at the moment to take it.
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I agree it's looking grim for him. But who knows, Bernmentum could still happen.

At a minimum I think he has put a few issues on the table that were really awesome to have real conversations about and forced Hillary's hand many times. A strong challenge that was much appreciated.
 
It's also important to remember that Hillary could be on trial or already in prison by the Convention. The whole "not in prison" thing might cause the SuperDelegates to switch to Sanders.
 
benjipwns said:
It's also important to remember that Hillary could be on trial or already in prison by the Convention. The whole "not in prison" thing might cause the SuperDelegates to switch to Sanders.
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...How likely is that to happen, though. Be real. That'd be insane.
 
boiled goose said:
You may be right about some things here, but not everything. Take a look.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...ndent-voters/2012/05/17/gIQAZmGyWU_story.html

"Perhaps the biggest myth about independents is that they are closet partisans or “leaners” who are independent in name only but regularly vote with one party. True, about half of independents do fit into this category, but the rest are truly independent; their allegiance swings from election to election"
"With that kind of track record, it is impossible to say that independent voters are reliably partisan"
"Independent voters are more diverse in age, race, gender and income than Republican and Democratic voters"

This one is particularly true about me.
"“both parties care more about special interests than about average Americans”

Also this one.
"Independents take voting seriously but are less moved by partisan appeals"

"By attacking Hillary you are hurting the Democrats!" Like I give a shit. It's not my fault if she has flaws as a candidate.
Click to expand...

I know you don't like to think this way, but if Bernie hurts the very thing that will need to support him in the future it is his problem. Like it or not he's not running as an independent. He will need the support of the Democratic party.
 
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