Super Tuesday 2016 |OT| The Final Incursion is a double Incursion (Mar 5-15 contests)

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Elfforkusu said:
Only way to win it is to stay in it.

You know this Grover!

(it's a long shot even if he does take OK and MA, but it always was a long shot)
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He needs to take them. 538 say he needs 50 delegates in MA to be on track and 20 in OK. He's looking good in OK and a little off that in MA... but again, really really early.

Agent_Carnage said:
As of this post

Clinton is up in OK 50% 43%
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Meaningless at this stage.
 
To all you talking about super early polls - if it keeps the dream alive, let's keep it alive!

I know it can change over time, but that's the point - getting excited about the race again, especially if it looks like your candidate can pull out a victory where the narrative was "Sanders is done lol"
 
Nate says that Oklahoma for Bernie isn't surprising. They expected the state (along with Tennessee) to be toss ups or slight advantage for Bernie.

Mass would a sort of upset because polling showed Hillary gaining, but demographically, it's still a good state for Bernie.
 
neurosisxeno said:
That's a pretty recent opinion though. If we go back to pre-IANH, that narrative has basically become;

Sanders will only win VT.

Okay he'll do alright in NH, since it's next to VT.

And he'll probably do okay in IA, but he'll do terrible in Nevada and SC.

Alright maybe he'll do okay in Nevada for some reason, but he still gets crushed and loses SC then everything but VT on Super Tuesday.

Alright maybe he'll do good in Minnesota and Colorado.

I guess Mass. makes sense too.

Oklahoma is obviously a state he can win... right?
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Serious polling in SC, NV, MA, OK, CO, and several other recent states didn't start until about a week or two before their primaries. And yes, people who paid attention to demographics of each state and which candidates were favored with which demographics accurately predicted the close races and the blowouts. once the race heated up, people knew Hillary would slay in the South and be competitive in Iowa and Nevada. People knew Sanders would destroy her in NH and VT and be competitive in MA, CO, etc. Again, nothing surprising has happened tonight on the Dem side of things for those who have paid attention at all, and aren't waving Pom-poms for their guy/girl.
 
boiled goose said:
Trump is probably the easiest for Hillary to beat.. and Bernie beats all Reps in head to head polls, so Im ok with him winning.

as a bonus, I think overall he is amazingly the least terrible among Rubio and Cruz
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Oh I agree with that, but the fact of the matter is Trump gets voters to come out and actually vote for him. I just hope those people supporting Sanders come out and vote for Hillary.
 
GK86 said:
Texas: Hillary 67% Clinton 31%
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tumblr_m13iahGdPg1r5jtugo1_250.gif
 
plagiarize said:
He needs to take them. 538 say he needs 50 delegates in MA to be on track and 20 in OK. He's looking good in OK and a little off that in MA... but again, really really early.
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If he takes the nom, it'll be because he's building popular support over the course of the primary. He's never going to be "on track" (unless it's right at the end) because of where's he starting from name recognition wise.
 
Come on people get a grip mass and ok are going to really close

Texas cannnot remain that far apart if Bernie wants to come out of tonight with any positivity though
 
Ashodin said:
To all you talking about super early polls - if it keeps the dream alive, let's keep it alive!

I know it can change over time, but that's the point - getting excited about the race again, especially if it looks like your candidate can pull out a victory where the narrative was "Sanders is done lol"
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Won't that cause whiplash and extra disappointment though if things don't turn your way in the end? Getting your hopes up after you had calmed yourself only to lose it in the end? Obviously I can't tell you how to feel but I know that probably wouldn't be great for my mental constitution in the short term.
 
What I think is really obnoxious is when news outlets call elections based on exit polling right after polls close, when voting in other states is still on-going. It creates a narrative that can sway other voters or cause them to not even vote. "Oh candidate X won those states? Well I guess candidate Y has no chance."
 
Crocodile said:
Won't that cause whiplash and extra disappointment though if things don't turn your way in the end? Getting your hopes up after you had calmed yourself only to lose it in the end? Obviously I can't tell you how to feel but I know that probably wouldn't be great for my mental constitution in the short term.
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The type of person I am, I'm eternally an optimist. I have very little in my life that gets me depressed.
 
Elfforkusu said:
If he takes the nom, it'll be because he's building popular support over the course of the primary. He's never going to be "on track" (unless it's right at the end) because of where's he starting from name recognition wise.
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If he's never on track he'll never take the nom.

Super delegates are only going to start to move to him when he gets ahead of Hillary.
 
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