Veritigo_X
Member
People are looking ahead to the primaries today which Bernie is expected to do very poorly in.
Super Tuesday 2016 |OT| The Final Incursion is a double Incursion (Mar 5-15 contests)
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People are looking ahead to the primaries today which Bernie is expected to do very poorly in.
yeah. He may lose GA & AL 75-25 today. Don't get me started on TN, TX, VA & AR numbers.
Delegate count is more like 400-90 ATM, and today is going to be a bloodbath. I was going to vote for him to keep him in longer and pull her more to the left but the Bernie Bros and comments I've read here and elsewhere changed my mind.
Clinton is going to be the nominee and there is too much at stake to have a bunch of Green-Rainbow nihlists using GOP talking points tear her down for another 6 months. In the face of reality, both candidates are more than acceptable to me.
Bernies greatest influence outside of some incredible turnout has always been to hold her feet to the fire. But I'm not liking the spiteful turn his hardcore supporters have taken. He is not Obama in 2012, and Clinton isnt the same as anyone on the GOP side.
boiled goose
good with gravy
If he loses MA, MN, CO I think it is effectively over.
He would be better in the states in the next two weeks, but he won't be able to get enough momentum and narrative to win.
If he wins MA, MN, CO, and Vermont, he shows that he can win. In fact, if we wins all 4 I would put him as the favorite to take the whole thing.
I'll make my prediction. Bernie wins MA, but it is close. I think he wins Colorado. Minnesota? It would honestly be a blind guess. It will be close. Theoretically caucuses should favor Bernie (enthusiasm intensity), but he has lows both caucus states so far.
It is crazy how poorly he does with African Americans. Based on their records I think it should be a bit more of an even split. Interesting polls show that while white democrats have moved left, African americans haven't. The fact the he is not religious and a white jewish man could play a role in limiting his appeal to more conservative democrats.
brainchild
Banned
This has not happened and will not happen until the DNC convention.
The constituency at this point is the general population of each and every individual state and citizen abroad. That's our primary process, like it or not. Seeing as different states have different primaries at different times, any viable candidates have the right to compete for votes in those states.
If you feel that it's not right, then you should be complaining about the DNC's primary process, not that candidates are abiding by it.
LMAO
Psychoward
Banned
We're arguing about the hypothetical future if there's a point where Bernie can fundamentally not win over the required number of delegates to have a majority. Whether or not it's smart for him to continue after that. I prefer Bernie and certainly don't think he should pack it up now, but I think continuing his campaign (same deal with Hillary continuing hers if the roles were reversed) after 100% inevitable defeat is a bad decision for many reasons.
boiled goose
good with gravy
We will know who will win by March 15th.
If Bernie gets sweeped today, then we will know today.
Sirpopopop
Member
So you don't care about global warming, continued funding for the sciences, having a social safety net, & supreme court justices that preserve civil rights?
brainchild
Banned
We cannot project today that it will be mathematically impossible for him to catch up, even if he loses every state today.
I think this is the conventional expectation.
Not sure this is like Rocky, he's a bit old to get up from a super knockout punch
Mighty Chin
Banned
I thought the last 3-4 go-a-rounds were gong shows. This cycle I just don't see how the process isn't broken after this.
This is some GOP skewered polls thinking. Let's not go there.
Progressivism needs to be grounded in data, facts, and reality.
excelsiorlef
Member
TheWorthyEdge
Member
When do we get results do you guys think?
excelsiorlef
Member
Do not go there....
The reality is Clinton puts the time to meet with Black leaders, Sanders doesn't.
gutter_trash
Banned
Joe Scarborough ripping the media and the establishment for still peddling the Rubio narrative despite not delivering on anything
the GOP salt is great
the GOP salt is great
CharminUltra
Member
Man, today is going to be exciting/hilarious.
plagiarize
Banned
The writing was on the wall after Ohio. It was underlined after Nevada. A fancy bronze plaque will be going up either tonight or on the 15th.
Right. We learn one of two things today. Either we learn that we still have a race, or we learn that Clinton has the nomination in the bag. Those are the only plausible outcomes.
and he will pay for it dearly. Don't expect the margins to change in any of the states that have a significant AA population like IL, MI, FL, MS etc. Expect him to be routed 9-1.
brainchild
Banned
My post was not about the likelihood of Bernie winning (he's not going to win). It was an objective, factual statement; today's data is not enough to conclude that there aren't enough delegates in the later states for it to be POSSIBLE (not the same as plausible) for him to win. And that is true regardless of him losing every state today or not.
plagiarize
Banned
The GOP are likely to agree with you once Trump clinches their nomination despite them absolutely not wanting him as a candidate.
'It's mathematically still possible for me to win!'
Said basically everyone who didn't win at one time or another before they pulled out.
We know today won't get anyone to the majority mark. But it will likely tell us who is going to reach that mark first with a high degree of certainty.
Veritigo_X
Member
Broken because people aren't voting for your candidate of choice?
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Bernie is polling better than Hillary in Oklahoma. No one really knows in Minnesota and Colorado because there's better no polling as far as I know.
Of course though Hillary supporters (not you particularly) are going to say Hillary will win only Vermont while Bernie supporters (myself) will say he'll take a few states, but Minnesota and Colorado are not decided.
While he's a shrill for Trump, I don't think he's wrong they've created a false narrative.
gutter_trash
Banned
I hope that Rubio underperforms so that the fake news makers can STFU
Ziltoidia 9
Member
Bernies only hope to make it out of tonight with somewhat of a positive message to continue, might just be the same thing that put him in this place, over saturation of Trump coverage, while winning those 4-5 states.
plagiarize
Banned
On the Democratic side, Sanders was actually in a good position demographically to establish an early lead and start winning over voters and pledged delegates before Super Tuesday (which was never going to be an easy day for him).
He failed to get enough people to vote for him for whatever reason. It wasn't 'the process' that has him behind at this point. The process was actually pretty favorable given which 4 states vote first and given that three of them were quite winnable for him.
Do people really think that if Bernie gets the nom, he'd win the presidency?
I love Bernie and I love everything he would want to do, but it's not realistic. All the repub nom has to say to the moderates is "Bernie = socialism" and that'd be the end of that.
I don't consider socialism a bad word and I know most of you don't consider socialism a bad word, but we're not the regular folk out in the US of A. Trump is playing to all the dummys out there. Hell, my aunt who doesn't vote wants Trump to win. She was like "What do you think of him?" I said "I think he's trash." She didn't like my answer. But these are the people that vote.
They see that he'll do "something" about immigration. They see that he'll run the government like a business (you know, because 4 of his businesses have had to file bankruptcy in the past 25 years. Not entirely his fault if he had shitty management, but he did have some stake there.) He says "lower taxes!" they say "YAY!"
But I have little faith in most Americans anymore anyway. I really need to move out of here.
Oh god and I just found this, another talking point for Trump:
http://www.computerworld.com/articl...-off-it-workers-speak-out-at-trump-rally.html
I love Bernie and I love everything he would want to do, but it's not realistic. All the repub nom has to say to the moderates is "Bernie = socialism" and that'd be the end of that.
I don't consider socialism a bad word and I know most of you don't consider socialism a bad word, but we're not the regular folk out in the US of A. Trump is playing to all the dummys out there. Hell, my aunt who doesn't vote wants Trump to win. She was like "What do you think of him?" I said "I think he's trash." She didn't like my answer. But these are the people that vote.
They see that he'll do "something" about immigration. They see that he'll run the government like a business (you know, because 4 of his businesses have had to file bankruptcy in the past 25 years. Not entirely his fault if he had shitty management, but he did have some stake there.) He says "lower taxes!" they say "YAY!"
But I have little faith in most Americans anymore anyway. I really need to move out of here.
Oh god and I just found this, another talking point for Trump:
http://www.computerworld.com/articl...-off-it-workers-speak-out-at-trump-rally.html
only 1 poll has him up and its by 5 within the margin of error. I expect it to be close.
Voysa Reezun
Banned
Besides holding a number of odious positions, her pandering to brown and black people with the "look, we have brown and black people/Benetton ad" comments drives me up the fucking wall. Because we all vote based on skin color and not policy. That's why Alan Keyes was elected president in 1996.
Plus how is she going to capture the hearts of her base, virulent racists, after taking down the Confederate flag in front of the state house post Dylann Roof?
She's totally phony and will be exposed as such eventually.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Oh defininely. It's just not set 100% clear (like it is in Mass and the southern states).
brainchild
Banned
But that wasn't what we were talking about. I didn't say that to argue that Bernie still has a chance. I said that because we were originally talking about what a candidate should do when it's mathematically impossible to win.
Lots of projecting going on right now.
superdeluxe
Member
Sanders needs 2 things, Pulling delegates away from the South from Clinton and winning the northern states. If he gets slaughtered in the South 65-35% split, then barely winning states in the North won't really offset that.
If Clinton does well tonight, we can effectively call the entire thing for her. It's how they fall races in states really early when they already know the demographics and so on. If he gets crushed tonight, he technically could have a shot if she somehow started losing time and time again, but that isn't realistic and it just isn't going to happen. It's a case of too little, way too late.
I think both Clinton and Trump sweep every state other than one loss for each.
I think both Clinton and Trump sweep every state other than one loss for each.
plagiarize
Banned
Everything I'm hearing has MA as the state he needs to win above all others. OK is essentially a statistical tie.
Macho Madness
Member
The thing is that the parties have all sorts of arbitrary rules that are supposed to let a clear front runner become clear early so that they can be undamaged by their primary opponents leading into a general election. What's most important for a party is that they win the big one, regardless who emerges as their candidate.
The Republicans actually changed their rules to make it even easier for a front runner to emerge early since 2012. The problem is that it allowed Trump to completely swallow up everything early and they have little chance to stop him.
I expect major rule changes in the Republican party after this election, assuming he loses big in November. Probably superdelegates and such.
Assuming Clinton sweeps everything but VT today, at what point does it become unethical for Sanders to keep asking for donations just to 'stay in it until all 50 states are counted'?
He's getting a ton of money from donations right now, and people can do whatever they want with their money, but the demographics he's aiming for is very clearly the lower end of middle class (or those worse off). Is it right to keep asking for donations from people who may not be able to afford it for a campaign that has no reasonable chance of winning (assuming today goes hard for Clinton)
I'm a clear Clinton supporter, so I am likely looking at this from a different perspective than a Sanders supporter, but has nobody asked this question yet?
He's getting a ton of money from donations right now, and people can do whatever they want with their money, but the demographics he's aiming for is very clearly the lower end of middle class (or those worse off). Is it right to keep asking for donations from people who may not be able to afford it for a campaign that has no reasonable chance of winning (assuming today goes hard for Clinton)
I'm a clear Clinton supporter, so I am likely looking at this from a different perspective than a Sanders supporter, but has nobody asked this question yet?
Macho Madness
Member
MA he needs to win by about 10 to still be on track, assuming he loses really big in the South.
People have been asking this question. It's a tough one to answer because I don't know how Sanders feels about it himself.
Black Republican
Member
BBC news should be interesting to follow, their reactions are always great
gutter_trash
Banned
Voted for Bernie in Georgia, but ready to support Hillary. I think the support for Bernie makes it clear that there are a lot of folks who want money out of politics, I just hope the Supreme Court gets stacked such that Citizen's United can be reversed. Though perhaps that's a pipe dream and the best hope is new legislation
Anyway... Hillary isn't so bad when you just give in the SuperPACs, which we kinda have to use anyway in the fight against Drumpf
Anyway... Hillary isn't so bad when you just give in the SuperPACs, which we kinda have to use anyway in the fight against Drumpf
Your comments come off as pretty contradictory:
Argument 1: She is only pandering to skin color and not pro-diversity policies.
Argument 2: Her pro-diversity action of taking down the Confederate flag is going to hurt her.
Argument 3: She's a total phony.
brainchild
Banned
We've actually been discussing this issue since the last page.
My view is that if you feel that it's unethical, complain about the DNC primary process, not Bernie, because a viable candidate is well within his/her right to compete for every vote in every state until the process is changed to prevent that from happening.
And to some people, it's considered more ethical to give every state a chance to be properly represented, even if the delegate counts from those states won't have any impact on the nomination.
It's a fundamental difference of opinion that isn't going to change much on either side.
AppleBlade
Member
I'm a Clinton supporter as well and I don't think it ever becomes unethical. If he wants to finish the race, then he should. If he wants to spread his message and give Democrats the right to have their voice heard in the primary about the type of leader they want in this and future elections then I do not have a problem with it.
Alex_Mexico
Member
Is Texas a winner takes all situation or can Trump take some delegates if he finishes second?
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Yep. I only lean Oklahoma because of an article they wrote yesterday about the state (which was surprisingly optimistic of Bernie's chances considering Five Thirty Eight is very down about his chances to win the nomination, understandably so).
I've said this before but losing MA is the kiss of death. He should suspend his campaign tomorrow.
I believe it's by congressional district and a proportional distribution with a 20% threshold. OP really should have had the info for each state since it's confusing as fuck.
gutter_trash
Banned
Winner-Take Most
you need to cross over 50% mark to Take All
Winner at 49% and under = proportional
but, if a candidate fails to reach 20%, you get nada (lol Marco)
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