Super Tuesday 2016 |OT| The Final Incursion is a double Incursion (Mar 5-15 contests)

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KuwabaraTheMan said:
Primary = voting at polling stations all day like a normal election.

Caucus = everyone gathers together at once for something more like a forum
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A caucus always sounds so shitty to me. I'm so glad I can just mail in an absentee ballot here in Illinois. No lines, no headache, and I can Google each candidate as I go through my selections which is really helpful for some of the more obscure races.
 
Trump is seriously wounded here. The upcoming primaries look better for him, but tonight's results will encourage more Republicans to come out on record against Trump and there will be no early pivot to the general election. He's also vulnerable to some type of surprise, like another round of controversial comments or Rubio dropping out and endorsing Cruz.
 
mo60 said:
After tonight the delegate count will look something like this for the top three

Trump: 380+ delegates
Cruz: 300+ delegates
Rubio: 130+(most likely less than this looking at the results coming in right now).

Since it does not look like rubio will close the delegate gap between him and cruz anytime soon I think rubio will have to think of dropping out of the race soon.
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Rubio's not going to drop out though since his whole strategy at this point isn't winning but banking on the possibility of a brokered convention and the hope that the RNC would choose him as the establishment candidate over Trump and just completing ignoring the way the people voted. To him, it doesn't matter if he actually wins states or not--all that matters is preventing Trump or Cruz from securing enough delegates to clench the nomination and thus it makes sense for him to stay in to just steal as many delegates as possible.

Granted that strategy is quite the longshot since even if he can prevent Trump from getting enough delegates (which is a longshot in of itself of course) it still rests on the RNC hating Trump enough that they'd be willing to go against the popular vote, but precisely because it's nonetheless the only shot he has period at this point and seems to be going full-steam ahead with it, I can't see him dropping out unless he somehow completely runs out of money before the convention or is otherwise forced to.
 
darkwing said:
what is the difference between a caucus and a primary?
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Caucus: Archaic relic of olden days that should rightfully be abolished. People gather in rooms and raise their hand, flip coins, shoot hoops etc to decide delegates.
Primary: A respectable voting process that imitates the general election.
 
RPGCrazied said:
Doesn't the winner get more though?
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Not the ones today. Every state has different rules, some are winner takes all, some give a bonus to statewide winner, some award by congressional district in such a way that it's possible for someone to get a lower amount of the statewide total, but walk away with more delegates overall.

It's very complicated.
 
RPGCrazied said:
Doesn't the winner get more though?
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Each state can have different rules. In some states you get extra delegates for each district you win, in some states if you win more than 50% you get all the delegates, some are purely winner take all, in others the delegates are doled out based on the proportion of the vote you win. You just have to read the rules on the state you are interested in.
 
Kansas in 2012 - eerily similar.
Code: 
Rick Santorum	15,290	51.2%	33
Mitt Romney	6,250	20.9%	7
Newt Gingrich	4,298	14.4%	0
 
RPGCrazied said:
Sure it is, Hillary fares better against him. Lets make it easy, so all these crazy people can crawl back into their hole.
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My concern is that the crazy Tea Party people supporting Trump will just move over to Cruz.

Remember, Ted Cruz is the darling of Conservative Talk Radio (Rush Limbaugh, Mark Levin, Glenn Beck).
 
Went and voted for Hilldog in LA. Turnout seemed really low at my polling place, much lower for the same time of day for either previous Pres. or the last Governor's race. Just an anecdote from a heavy Republican district.
 
RPGCrazied said:
Sure it is, Hillary fares better against him. Lets make it easy, so all these crazy people can crawl back into their hole.
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From what I've read, Cruz is actually the Clinton camp's preferred opponent. They view him as as repellent to moderate voters as Trump, but much more predictable; with Trump, you'd always be wondering what he'd do next.
 
Sean C said:
From what I've read, Cruz is actually the Clinton camp's preferred opponent. They view him as as repellent to moderate voters as Trump, but much more predictable; with Trump, you'd always be wondering what he'd do next.
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Yep. He's a predictable empty suit that would likely be easy to beat. Trump is a complete wildcard.
 
Just woke up. Wow at those Cruz wins. This may drag the race out for a few weeks if March 15 isn't decisive.

On the Dem side guessing Bernie wins the Caucuses and Hillary wins LA.
 
Oddduck said:
My concern is that the crazy Tea Party people supporting Trump will just move over to Cruz.

Remember, Ted Cruz is the darling of Conservative Talk Radio (Rush Limbaugh, Mark Levin, Glenn Beck).
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They will.

But the difference is that Cruz can't (and most likely won't even try, being that "true conservative values" is kind of his thing) pivot to the center to take moderates and independents from the Democratic ticket.

Trump could but the longer this Republican primary remains a race, the longer he has to stay catering only to the yahoos and nutjobs.
 
Grover Cleveland said:
They will.

But the difference is that Cruz can't (and most likely won't even try, being that "true conservative values" is kind of his thing") pivot to the center to take moderates and independents from the Democratic ticket.

Trump could but the longer this republican primary remains a race, the longer he has to stay catering only to the yahoos and nutjobs.
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That's a good point.

I can see why Cruz would be an easier opponent for Hillary.
 
Polari said:
A Dem victory is pretty much guaranteed with Cruz as the candidate, regardless of whether Trump runs third party or not.
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Cruz would be a worse choice for Republicans LOL

his bible thumping, anti-gay, anti-choice drum beating renders him even more unelectabele than Trump
 
Cruz is scarier to me than Donald Trump (and that says a lot), so I'd prefer that it not even be a race. I think either Dem could beat either Republican, but the thought of having to listen to Ted Cruz talk for 4 months during the general is disgusting. Listening to Trump is just jumping from one outrageous stupidity to another while listening to Cruz is like boiling alive in a pot of oil.
 
Cruz is predictable. He's a far right evangelical. With him, you know what you're going to get. He's bat shit insane, and he doesn't have the ability to tact back to the center.

Trump is a monkey flinging shit. He will say anything and do anything, and it's harder to pin someone down on that. He'll just admit "Okay, I changed my mind" and that's the end of it.
 
danm999 said:
Cruz in a general also takes us one step closer to a Trump third party run.
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If Cruz comes back in the delegate count and wins the nomination legit, than probably not. If it becomes a brokered convention and the RNC gives it to Rubio, then I'm pretty sure he would (and I wouldn't blame him for it). Either option would lead to an easy Hillary win though.
 
I'm not sure that it would be easier for Hillary to beat Cruz than Trump. Trump has some high negatives, and a lot of conservatives wouldn't even vote. I don't think Trump would do very well in the general against Clinton, but I could be wrong.
 
adam387 said:
Cruz is predictable. He's a far right evangelical. With him, you know what you're going to get. He's bat shit insane, and he doesn't have the ability to tact back to the center.

Trump is a monkey flinging shit. He will say anything and do anything, and it's harder to pin someone down on that. He'll just admit "Okay, I changed my mind" and that's the end of it.
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Cruz = tele-evangelist nut end of the world gas guzzling apocalyptic lunatic
Trump = WWE Top-card Heel
 
Damaniel said:
If Cruz comes back in the delegate count and wins the nomination legit, than probably not. If it becomes a brokered convention and the RNC gives it to Rubio, then I'm pretty sure he would (and I wouldn't blame him for it). Either option would lead to an easy Hillary win though.
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I think Donald will view what the GOP is doing to him in negative PAC ads, what Romney said about him, what Fox News did to him a few days ago as a break of the pledge triggering a third party run will occur no matter what.
 
Miletius said:
Cruz is scarier to me than Donald Trump (and that says a lot), so I'd prefer that it not even be a race. I think either Dem could beat either Republican, but the thought of having to listen to Ted Cruz talk for 4 months during the general is disgusting. Listening to Trump is just jumping from one outrageous stupidity to another while listening to Cruz is like boiling alive in a pot of oil.
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Cruz is not scary in the general. His entire shtick is conservative true believer. He has no room to maneuver in the general. But all this Cruz talk is premature. Trump is favored in the WTA states including the biggest prize Florida.
 
balladofwindfishes said:
Why is Cruz more appealing to voters over Rubio?
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Republican primary voters seem to be more socially conservative than the average Republican, and they tend to lean toward the evangelical types. Rubio would be far more appealing to the general Republican electorate. Of course, that doesn't explain how Trump is even competitive - maybe racism just trumps religion this time around.
 
Bandit1 said:
I'm not sure that it would be easier for Hillary to beat Cruz than Trump. Trump has some high negatives, and a lot of conservatives wouldn't even vote. I don't think Trump would do very well in the general against Clinton, but I could be wrong.
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The great thing is that Cruz cannot and won't shift from his far right evangelicals while trump will throw people to the side the second he gets the nomination. The extreme social conservatism is unpalatable right now nationally. I would probably have a heart attack is Kasich was the nominee and would be slightly nervous about Rubio, but Cruz is just as batshit in ideas as Trump
 
Oh, if Trump loses this thing he's going to go bat shit insane. He thinks that the establishment has teamed up against him. And they have. The GOP needed to take a chill pill and do this subtly. Instead, they went typical GOP insane and just started throwing everything at him.
 
Damaniel said:
Republican primary voters seem to be more socially conservative than the average Republican, and they tend to lean toward the evangelical types. Of course, that doesn't explain how Trump is even competitive - maybe racism just trumps religion this time around.
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That's a massive simplification. Evangelicals are a BIG part of the Republican primary electorate, but they haven't been the kingmakers for a while. If they were, Santorum and Huckabee would have won.
 
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