balladofwindfishes
Member
Oh okay.
Just, if I were a conservative, Rubio would be my pick, since he's younger and isn't as slimy as Cruz. I'd want to pick someone who'd actually get elected and isn't considered to have a "punchable face"
Super Tuesday 2016 |OT| The Final Incursion is a double Incursion (Mar 5-15 contests)
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Oh okay.
Just, if I were a conservative, Rubio would be my pick, since he's younger and isn't as slimy as Cruz. I'd want to pick someone who'd actually get elected and isn't considered to have a "punchable face"
Macho Madness
Member
Yep. "No abortions, no gay marriage" is increasingly becoming a platform that's toxic on a national level. Plus Cruz's tax plan is completely ridiculous that's *SURPRISE* just another tax cut for the rich.
Macho Madness
Member
The Republican primary voter's mind may never be completely understood.
Yes, they do not do subtly and that may kill them. Can't wait to see Donald's speech tonight and his reaction at the next debate.
metalslimer
Member
Ted Cruz also attended a conference with someone who said killing gay people was ok only a few months ago.
The meltdown will be GLORIOUS
OpinionatedCyborg
Member
A lot of people aren't bothering to even read the last page of the thread.
User 463088
Banned
Exactly. Like with the Benghazi and e-mail things. If they had a cohesive message, they could have hurt Hillary with it. Instead, they go full on bat shit mode and just lose it. If they would just take a breath and then formulate a rational attack, they'd be fine. But they don't. They just foam at the mouth and start screaming like lunatics.
OpinionatedCyborg
Member
- evangelical
- tea party (establishment hates him)
- does what he says he will do (establishment hates him)
- hangs his own party out to dry to score political points (establishment hates him)
- establishment hates him
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
I'd agree. One of Clinton's biggest weakness is looking like a puppet of special interests and billionaire bankers, and only saying what she thinks will help her get elected. Trump would push hard on that issue, while Cruz wouldn't even dare to try. Stuff like that might somehow end up working, especially given how easily Trump has been able to control the conversation.
The unfortunate thing is you're giving up the chance of Trump falling flat on his face and bringing the down ticket with him. So there's a Risk/Reward factor there.
At least it's becoming even more clear that the only path to victory for Rubio is a contested convention, which would be a Dem victory in it's own right. Cruz ain't dropping out after March 15th thanks to this, and Rubio's falling further and further behind his delegate target.
It's always been my belief that neither Cruz nor Trump is competitive in the general. However, in the off chance that something earth shattering happened that would cause the Democrats to lose November then I'd actually rather have Trump than Cruz in the White House.
Also, I really just can't stand Ted Cruz. I'd rather set myself on fire than willingly listen to him being called Mr. President.
boiled goose
good with gravy
Bernie needs to do better than expected today or Michigan will be rough and march 15 wont save him.
many conservatives believe the reason romney lost in 2012 was that romney was not a true conservative like cruz so conservatives stayed at home whereas minority voters turned out in droves for obama.
ted cruz sells them a fantasy where they can win while also being ultra conservative and not compromising, it's appealing among insular caucus members
User 463088
Banned
Back of the envelope math here:
If Bernie wins the two caucus states 65/35, and Hillary wins Louisiana 67/33 (which would be Bernie's best performance in the south and an over performing of his poll numbers by nearly 20 points)....
Bernie would end up with 54 delegates
Hillary would end up with 55 delegates.
(This assumes Bernie is viable in Louisiana. I think he will be, but if he hits 30% I'd be surprised. Of course, Hillary could under perform in the caucuses as well).
If he's able to hit 70% of the vote in each caucus, he'd net no more than 5 delegates today.
If Bernie wins the two caucus states 65/35, and Hillary wins Louisiana 67/33 (which would be Bernie's best performance in the south and an over performing of his poll numbers by nearly 20 points)....
Bernie would end up with 54 delegates
Hillary would end up with 55 delegates.
(This assumes Bernie is viable in Louisiana. I think he will be, but if he hits 30% I'd be surprised. Of course, Hillary could under perform in the caucuses as well).
If he's able to hit 70% of the vote in each caucus, he'd net no more than 5 delegates today.
plagiarize
Banned
I should note, that 538 say that analysis of 2012 is nonsense as conservative turn out was much higher than in 2008.
Grover Cleveland
Member
I do think Cruz is a much better debater than Trump so there's that.
Trump gets by now on his "the uuuge wall just got ten feet higher!" soundbites but Hilary (or Bernie) would pick that apart in the general.
Cruz at least can present something resembling policy (even if it is regressive, archaic, backwards, downright stupid) from time to time.
Trump gets by now on his "the uuuge wall just got ten feet higher!" soundbites but Hilary (or Bernie) would pick that apart in the general.
Cruz at least can present something resembling policy (even if it is regressive, archaic, backwards, downright stupid) from time to time.
Cruz won't inflame anti-establishment white men like Trump would.
Is there any polling for any of these states?
Seth Enosh
Member
Public opinion on abortion laws/rights hasn't changed much in the last few decades, it's basically a frozen conflict at this point (see Gallup polls and the fact that pro-life legislators and governors have no problem getting elected in many states).
You're right about shifting opinion on gay marriage, but how decisive that is in votes for president at this point is unclear. Usually people seem to vote based on economic conditions.
boiled goose
good with gravy
Yet most polls have him beating Hillary in head to head matchups, which is scary.
iamBlkpleAsedoNt
Banned
Wow I think you have that completely reversed.
User 463088
Banned
Not for the caucuses, no. For Louisiana, the current spread is Hillary by 40, and in the most recent poll, Bernie wasn't viable.
Louisiana yes, Nebraska and Kansas not really, although the demographics of Kansas and Nebraska favor Sanders, so a 60/40 Sanders split for those two states wouldn't be unexpected.
yeah it's total nonsense
it's just plausible nonsense. especially if you want to believe it. especially also if you are a politically active conservative and know many friends who were turned off by romney being a more moderate republican than the tea party, it seems convincing that anecdotal evidence is true of the whole electorate. but it's not.
one good thing about cruz being the nominee and losing is that there's no escape from why and after losing the white house for 12 years, republicans can start the process of re-alignment towards mainstream american political opinion. such that when they do put up a more convincing candidate or democrats make a big error or the world economy crashes under a democrat president they will do less crippling damage . trump losing will just be blamed on trump being nuts.
So barring something weird, these weekend doesn't change anything?
metalslimer
Member
Yeah Hilary will likely walk away from today with more delegates
No the gop can't win under normal circumstances. Kasich would be Romney 2.0 they need a complete game changer like Trump who can make any preconception worthless.
User 463088
Banned
Especially small red state caucuses. There's just no reason to bother. Iowa is a shit to poll, but it's at least something people are used to doing. It's not worth the money to poll these states for either side.
iamBlkpleAsedoNt
Banned
Sorry thought you meant less dangerous as in for the totality of the county and their policies.
I thought most polls had him on par with Hilary?
Regardless that's not factoring in that a Trump independent run would take out a good chunk of his votes.
Edit: Worth pointing out that Cruz's likability among republican voters is only 51%, compared to Trump's 49%. Whereas Hilary's is 79% among Dems.
GE matchups before the GE are useless. Don't even use them to consider who to vote for, and don't loose any sleep over them.
plagiarize
Banned
Trust me, if people weren't comparing Cruz to Trump, he'd nose dive.
superdeluxe
Member
Well it does, it reduces the total number of delegates available.
Ewwww.
User 463088
Banned
Correct. Although, the Maine caucus heavily vafors Bernie, so he may net a few delegates tomorow. It all depends on the margins, though. When I did the math earlier, the most likely scenario for Bernie is that he nets 6 delegates from this weekend. (Including Maine.)
Then we go to Tuesday when Mississippi and Michigan vote. If current polls are accurate (and a new one just came out showing Hillary increasing her lead in Michigan) Hillary will net 72 delegates over Bernie.
By March 15th, Hillary will probably have a 300-400 pledged delegate lead (even if Bernie somehow manages to win Ohio where he's polling behind.)
At worst, it's a wash At best, she ends up with one more. If she could keep him non-viable in LA that would be the best result. I don't think it will happen, though. She does perform her southern numbers.
OpinionatedCyborg
Member
A more updated source for Maine: http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/results/2016/primary/gop/president/maine/
Michael F. Assbender
Banned
For all the talk about who would be easier for Hillary to beat, I just worry about counting my chickens before they hatch. There's a long time before November, and with the massive amount of general dislike and distrust toward Hillary, the shit going down with her emails (which is nothing, but try convincing undecideds about that when they're being bombarded by Republican ads), and a generally ho hum electorate filled with disenfranchised Sanders supporters who have taken their ball and gone home.
It may not be hugely likely, but it's entirely possible that any given Republican could beat her.
Side note: They just played a Kasich ad here in Michigan where he pledges to freeze federal regulations. I can't help but wonder if that's wise in a state where the lack of competent oversight made poisoned water in Flint a national story.
It may not be hugely likely, but it's entirely possible that any given Republican could beat her.
Side note: They just played a Kasich ad here in Michigan where he pledges to freeze federal regulations. I can't help but wonder if that's wise in a state where the lack of competent oversight made poisoned water in Flint a national story.
LOL if Kasich comes third.
This is shaping up to be a full Jeb(!)-style humiliation for Rubio.
TheUntamedLegend
Member
Why is Maine going strong for Cruz?
Is there something about Maine I am unaware of?
Is there something about Maine I am unaware of?
Maintenance
Member
Cruz is winning? Welp, you had a good run Trump.
They elected a shit Republican Governor, so there's obviously some crazy hard code Republicans there.
I don't know that those head to head cross party polls are valuable at this point. Apparently Reagan should have lost to Carter according to those, but once Reagan got the nom he gained steadily and took over.
Maine is a really bizarre state. Tons of super conservative whites up there
OpinionatedCyborg
Member
He was Jeb's protege after all.
maquiladora
Member
Because the last debate was a disaster for Trump.
iamBlkpleAsedoNt
Banned
Cruz winning pretty much is the darkest timeline 
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