Super Tuesday 2016 |OT| The Final Incursion is a double Incursion (Mar 5-15 contests)

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Voters think he's not a "real" conservative like Cruz is. Cruz's entire platform has been "I am the most conservative"

Oh okay.

Just, if I were a conservative, Rubio would be my pick, since he's younger and isn't as slimy as Cruz. I'd want to pick someone who'd actually get elected and isn't considered to have a "punchable face"
 
The great thing is that Cruz cannot and won't shift from his far right evangelicals while trump will throw people to the side the second he gets the nomination. The extreme social conservatism is unpalatable right now nationally

Yep. "No abortions, no gay marriage" is increasingly becoming a platform that's toxic on a national level. Plus Cruz's tax plan is completely ridiculous that's *SURPRISE* just another tax cut for the rich.
 
It also bears mentioning that nearly everyone who spends a decent amount of time around Ted seems to end up loathing the guy. Even some of his family members in those videos seem to be giving off "This guy is kind of creepy" vibes.
 
Oh, if Trump loses this thing he's going to go bat shit insane. He thinks that the establishment has teamed up against him. And they have. The GOP needed to take a chill pill and do this subtly. Instead, they went typical GOP insane and just started throwing everything at him.

Yes, they do not do subtly and that may kill them. Can't wait to see Donald's speech tonight and his reaction at the next debate.
 
Oh, if Trump loses this thing he's going to go bat shit insane. He thinks that the establishment has teamed up against him. And they have. The GOP needed to take a chill pill and do this subtly. Instead, they went typical GOP insane and just started throwing everything at him.

The meltdown will be GLORIOUS
 
Yes, they do not do subtly and that may kill them. Can't wait to see Donald's speech tonight and his reaction at the next debate.

Exactly. Like with the Benghazi and e-mail things. If they had a cohesive message, they could have hurt Hillary with it. Instead, they go full on bat shit mode and just lose it. If they would just take a breath and then formulate a rational attack, they'd be fine. But they don't. They just foam at the mouth and start screaming like lunatics.
 
From what I've read, Cruz is actually the Clinton camp's preferred opponent. They view him as as repellent to moderate voters as Trump, but much more predictable; with Trump, you'd always be wondering what he'd do next.

I'd agree. One of Clinton's biggest weakness is looking like a puppet of special interests and billionaire bankers, and only saying what she thinks will help her get elected. Trump would push hard on that issue, while Cruz wouldn't even dare to try. Stuff like that might somehow end up working, especially given how easily Trump has been able to control the conversation.

The unfortunate thing is you're giving up the chance of Trump falling flat on his face and bringing the down ticket with him. So there's a Risk/Reward factor there.

At least it's becoming even more clear that the only path to victory for Rubio is a contested convention, which would be a Dem victory in it's own right. Cruz ain't dropping out after March 15th thanks to this, and Rubio's falling further and further behind his delegate target.
 
Cruz is not scary in the general. His entire shtick is conservative true believer. He has no room to maneuver in the general. But all this Cruz talk is premature. Trump is favored in the WTA states including the biggest prize Florida.

It's always been my belief that neither Cruz nor Trump is competitive in the general. However, in the off chance that something earth shattering happened that would cause the Democrats to lose November then I'd actually rather have Trump than Cruz in the White House.

Also, I really just can't stand Ted Cruz. I'd rather set myself on fire than willingly listen to him being called Mr. President.
 
Oh okay.

Just, if I were a conservative, Rubio would be my pick, since he's younger and isn't as slimy as Cruz. I'd want to pick someone who'd actually get elected and isn't considered to have a "punchable face"

many conservatives believe the reason romney lost in 2012 was that romney was not a true conservative like cruz so conservatives stayed at home whereas minority voters turned out in droves for obama.

ted cruz sells them a fantasy where they can win while also being ultra conservative and not compromising, it's appealing among insular caucus members
 
Back of the envelope math here:

If Bernie wins the two caucus states 65/35, and Hillary wins Louisiana 67/33 (which would be Bernie's best performance in the south and an over performing of his poll numbers by nearly 20 points)....

Bernie would end up with 54 delegates
Hillary would end up with 55 delegates.

(This assumes Bernie is viable in Louisiana. I think he will be, but if he hits 30% I'd be surprised. Of course, Hillary could under perform in the caucuses as well).

Bernie needs to do better than expected today or Michigan will be rough and march 15 wont save him.

If he's able to hit 70% of the vote in each caucus, he'd net no more than 5 delegates today.
 
many conservatives believe the reason romney lost in 2012 was that romney was not a true conservative like cruz so conservatives stayed at home whereas minority voters turned out in droves for obama.

ted cruz sells them a fantasy where they can win while also being ultra conservative and not compromising, it's appealing among insular caucus members
I should note, that 538 say that analysis of 2012 is nonsense as conservative turn out was much higher than in 2008.
 
Cruz doing well is a good thing IMO. Trump is crazy enough to register as an independent (I think the deadline isn't until September?) if he doesn't get the nom. Split vote, easy win for Hillary. I think Trump would pull 5 - 10% of the popular vote as an independent
 
I do think Cruz is a much better debater than Trump so there's that.

Trump gets by now on his "the uuuge wall just got ten feet higher!" soundbites but Hilary (or Bernie) would pick that apart in the general.

Cruz at least can present something resembling policy (even if it is regressive, archaic, backwards, downright stupid) from time to time.
 
I'm not sure that it would be easier for Hillary to beat Cruz than Trump. Trump has some high negatives, and a lot of conservatives wouldn't even vote. I don't think Trump would do very well in the general against Clinton, but I could be wrong.

Cruz won't inflame anti-establishment white men like Trump would.
 
Remember folks, Cruz is so conservative, his plan for the general is literally "draw out the hidden evangelical voters."

I don't think he would hurt the downballot like Trump would, but it's an easy victory for Hillary(or Bernie) in the general.
 
Back of the envelope math here:

If Bernie wins the two caucus states 65/35, and Hillary wins Louisiana 67/33 (which would be Bernie's best performance in the south and an over performing of his poll numbers by nearly 20 points)....

Bernie would end up with 54 delegates
Hillary would end up with 55 delegates.

(This assumes Bernie is viable in Louisiana. I think he will be, but if he hits 30% I'd be surprised. Of course, Hillary could under perform in the caucuses as well).


If he's able to hit 70% of the vote in each caucus, he'd net no more than 5 delegates today.

Is there any polling for any of these states?
 
Yep. "No abortions, no gay marriage" is increasingly becoming a platform that's toxic on a national level. Plus Cruz's tax plan is completely ridiculous that's *SURPRISE* just another tax cut for the rich.
Public opinion on abortion laws/rights hasn't changed much in the last few decades, it's basically a frozen conflict at this point (see Gallup polls and the fact that pro-life legislators and governors have no problem getting elected in many states).

You're right about shifting opinion on gay marriage, but how decisive that is in votes for president at this point is unclear. Usually people seem to vote based on economic conditions.
 
Remember folks, Cruz is so conservative, his plan for the general is literally "draw out the hidden evangelical voters."

I don't think he would hurt the downballot like Trump would, but it's an easy victory for Hillary(or Bernie) in the general.

Yet most polls have him beating Hillary in head to head matchups, which is scary.
 
I should note, that 538 say that analysis of 2012 is nonsense as conservative turn out was much higher than in 2008.

yeah it's total nonsense

it's just plausible nonsense. especially if you want to believe it. especially also if you are a politically active conservative and know many friends who were turned off by romney being a more moderate republican than the tea party, it seems convincing that anecdotal evidence is true of the whole electorate. but it's not.

one good thing about cruz being the nominee and losing is that there's no escape from why and after losing the white house for 12 years, republicans can start the process of re-alignment towards mainstream american political opinion. such that when they do put up a more convincing candidate or democrats make a big error or the world economy crashes under a democrat president they will do less crippling damage . trump losing will just be blamed on trump being nuts.
 
Back of the envelope math here:

If Bernie wins the two caucus states 65/35, and Hillary wins Louisiana 67/33 (which would be Bernie's best performance in the south and an over performing of his poll numbers by nearly 20 points)....

Bernie would end up with 54 delegates
Hillary would end up with 55 delegates.

(This assumes Bernie is viable in Louisiana. I think he will be, but if he hits 30% I'd be surprised. Of course, Hillary could under perform in the caucuses as well).



If he's able to hit 70% of the vote in each caucus, he'd net no more than 5 delegates today.
So barring something weird, these weekend doesn't change anything?
 
Back of the envelope math here:

If Bernie wins the two caucus states 65/35, and Hillary wins Louisiana 67/33 (which would be Bernie's best performance in the south and an over performing of his poll numbers by nearly 20 points)....

Bernie would end up with 54 delegates
Hillary would end up with 55 delegates.

(This assumes Bernie is viable in Louisiana. I think he will be, but if he hits 30% I'd be surprised. Of course, Hillary could under perform in the caucuses as well).



If he's able to hit 70% of the vote in each caucus, he'd net no more than 5 delegates today.

Yeah Hilary will likely walk away from today with more delegates
 
Yeah I guess pollsters really don't want to throw their integrity away on caucuses.

Especially small red state caucuses. There's just no reason to bother. Iowa is a shit to poll, but it's at least something people are used to doing. It's not worth the money to poll these states for either side.
 
Yet most polls have him beating Hillary in head to head matchups, which is scary.

I thought most polls had him on par with Hilary?

Regardless that's not factoring in that a Trump independent run would take out a good chunk of his votes.

Edit: Worth pointing out that Cruz's likability among republican voters is only 51%, compared to Trump's 49%. Whereas Hilary's is 79% among Dems.
 
I thought most polls had him on par with Hilary?

Regardless that's not factoring in that a Trump independent run would take out a good chunk of his votes.

GE matchups before the GE are useless. Don't even use them to consider who to vote for, and don't loose any sleep over them.
 
So barring something weird, these weekend doesn't change anything?

Correct. Although, the Maine caucus heavily vafors Bernie, so he may net a few delegates tomorow. It all depends on the margins, though. When I did the math earlier, the most likely scenario for Bernie is that he nets 6 delegates from this weekend. (Including Maine.)

Then we go to Tuesday when Mississippi and Michigan vote. If current polls are accurate (and a new one just came out showing Hillary increasing her lead in Michigan) Hillary will net 72 delegates over Bernie.

By March 15th, Hillary will probably have a 300-400 pledged delegate lead (even if Bernie somehow manages to win Ohio where he's polling behind.)

Yeah Hilary will likely walk away from today with more delegates

At worst, it's a wash At best, she ends up with one more. If she could keep him non-viable in LA that would be the best result. I don't think it will happen, though. She does perform her southern numbers.
 
For all the talk about who would be easier for Hillary to beat, I just worry about counting my chickens before they hatch. There's a long time before November, and with the massive amount of general dislike and distrust toward Hillary, the shit going down with her emails (which is nothing, but try convincing undecideds about that when they're being bombarded by Republican ads), and a generally ho hum electorate filled with disenfranchised Sanders supporters who have taken their ball and gone home.

It may not be hugely likely, but it's entirely possible that any given Republican could beat her.

Side note: They just played a Kasich ad here in Michigan where he pledges to freeze federal regulations. I can't help but wonder if that's wise in a state where the lack of competent oversight made poisoned water in Flint a national story.
 
Yet most polls have him beating Hillary in head to head matchups, which is scary.

I don't know that those head to head cross party polls are valuable at this point. Apparently Reagan should have lost to Carter according to those, but once Reagan got the nom he gained steadily and took over.

Why is Maine going strong for Cruz?
Is there something about Maine I am unaware of?

Maine is a really bizarre state. Tons of super conservative whites up there
 
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