Nah, he'd say that anything that causes us to question everything we think that we know is healthy for the scientific community. We want to know more, not less
There's a big difference between encountering magic and hoping magic happens
;(
Super Tuesday 2016 |OT| The Final Incursion is a double Incursion (Mar 5-15 contests)
- Thread starter B-Dubs
- Start date
- Status
There's a big difference between encountering magic and hoping magic happens
;(
Flying Toaster
Member
It is an absolute bloodbath no matter what happens. But Trump not getting the nomination if he has the delegates would be especially fun to watch.
Sohter.Nura
Member
I think what he is alluding to is the Republican party imploding.
EDIT: I guess, thinking about it, rather than Trump winning the nom, best case scenario for the election turnout is to have the convention steal his nomination away and give it to Cruz (not Markito though), and let the implosion of the party ruin their GE chances.
OuterLimits
Member
Had Cruz won some SEC states, he would probably be on his way to the nomination. He has lost every one of those though. I don't see him doing well in states like New York, Pennsylvania, Jersey, and such. He may be too conservative for Northern Republicans.
Plus Cruz does really well in caucus states which only three remain.
Plus Cruz does really well in caucus states which only three remain.
Flying Toaster
Member
I love how the Republican parties only hope is the batshit crazy Cruz... It's quite fascinating.
OuterLimits
Member
Cruz is definitely a bit crazy when it comes to his religious views, but he is also a brilliant guy. An evil genius maybe. Lol.
Flying Toaster
Member
I wasn't even getting into his religious views. The fact that he stomps on his own party and his fiscal policies are over the edge.
OuterLimits
Member
You forgot Alaska as well. Lol. So Cruz dominates in the plains and states near Canada.
My guy Rubio is pretty much finished. Florida is his last stand and that battle isn't looking great. Hate to see him exit the race after losing his home state in embarrassment, but that seems possible. Even Kasich is doing better than Rubio.
I would support Trump over Cruz.
brainchild
Banned
There's a big difference between encountering magic and hoping magic happens
;(
Lol, of course, but we've went on quite the tangent, haven't we?
Alex_Mexico
Member
Thanks to all who responded my caucus vs primary question. I have another one though:
What's keeping Ted from overcoming Trump at the snap of a finger if Rubio folds and endorsers Cruz? Wouldn't that give Cruz all of Rubio's delegates thus making Cruz the front runner at a moment's notice?
What's keeping Ted from overcoming Trump at the snap of a finger if Rubio folds and endorsers Cruz? Wouldn't that give Cruz all of Rubio's delegates thus making Cruz the front runner at a moment's notice?
Aaron Strife
Banned
The delegates are free to vote how they want after the first ballot, Rubio's endorsement wouldn't compel them to do anything.
All of the hard delegates are locked into their vote on the first ballot though.
Alex_Mexico
Member
OuterLimits
Member
Not really. Usually the delegates are bound to their candidate for the first ballot at the convention in many states. I think a candidate may release them of the obligation in some states but the delegates are then free to choose who they support.
Also keep in mind that states starting with Florida become winner take all on the Republican side. The next week is still awarded proportionally, but it will be winner take all soon.
Leona Lewis
Banned
Trump's victory speech/rant never fails to amuse.
Amazing that this guy's already legendary self-masturbatory tendencies pale in comparison to Cruz's love of his own voice, though.
Interesting that he wants to face Ted one on one. I guess he also realizes that Ted is a non-starter once NY/NJ/PA/CA/FL/etc. come around.
Amazing that this guy's already legendary self-masturbatory tendencies pale in comparison to Cruz's love of his own voice, though.
Interesting that he wants to face Ted one on one. I guess he also realizes that Ted is a non-starter once NY/NJ/PA/CA/FL/etc. come around.
User 463088
Banned
So, all of these contests award delegates. These are people that will go to the Republican Convention in July (I think...) and they will put forward the nominees. Each state is seated in a group, and they award their delegates to the winner of their state's primary/caucus.
The first time this happens, it's the first ballot. Usually (ie everytime) someone has a majority of the delegates. Once that happens, that person is no longer the presumptive nominee but is the actual nominee.
If, however, no one has the required number of delegates, they go to a second ballot. At that point, the delegates are free to vote how they want (depending on the rules the RNC/DNC put in place). So, at that point, Rubio could tell his delegates "Vote for Cruz." They're free to do that. Or they're free to completely ignore him and vote for whomever they want. Then we keep going until someone gets 50%+1 of the delegates.
And, remember, this isn't a government thing. These are just party events. Each party sets the rules for this stuff. There's nothing in our Constitution that requires it. If the Democratic party wanted to pick a name out of the phone book, we could.
I'm sure this has been covered, but assuming this does end up in a brokered convention situation, is there ever a time where it becomes too late for Trump to go independent and form The Great Party? Like, if the GOP scheme works, he's not somehow prohibited from changing parties is he?
User 463088
Banned
https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_for_presidential_candidates
It varies by state. He'd have to have signatures for ballot access. Each state sets their own deadlines. At this point, it's getting close to to late to be a viable 3rd party challenger.
Of course, he could try and take the nomination of a party who is already on the ballot somewhere. Maybe the Constitution Party, if they want him.
However, he couldn't be on the ballot in Texas or South Dakota because of sore loser laws.
hodayathink
Member
The only limitation for going third party would be the amount of time he'd need to get onto the ballot in each state.
Alex_Mexico
Member
Has there ever been a case where a party's nominee didn't get the required number of delegates?
OuterLimits
Member
States on and after March 15th become winner take all. Some huge delegate states like New York, California, Jersey, Pennsylvania fall into that category. Florida is the first winner take all state and why Rubio is hanging around. If he wins, he continues, if he loses, he is gone.
If all the states were proportional, the odds of a brokered convention would be higher I think. Winner take all states should make it less likely but certainly still possible.
If no one has the magic number by the time the convention rolls around they'll take a vote to prove it and then all the delegates are freed up to vote for who they want. From there they vote until someone gets the number.
User 463088
Banned
Not in the modern era. There hasn't been a brokered convention since primaries became a thing. The last time was in 1952. However, the party has to vote until someone is nominated. I think the record is 102 ballots.
superdeluxe
Member
Will the dem race still be viable by Washington's caucus at the end of March?
Is it still a race now?
Unless something big and unexpected happens on the 15th the Dem race is over.
OuterLimits
Member
Some good news for Trump in Louisiana is that unlike most SEC states, it was a closed primary. So the fact he was able to edge out Cruz there is a decent result. Louisiana went for Santorum in 2012. Kentucky was decent as well since Cruz has been winning most caucuses.
Huge winner take all states like New York should in theory be good for Trump later on.
Huge winner take all states like New York should in theory be good for Trump later on.
hodayathink
Member
Are you asking if Bernie's going to stay in that long, or if he's going to have any chance of winning at that point?
I think he'll still be running then, but I don't think he'll have any realistic shot at that point.
User 463088
Banned
Hillary will not have enough delegates by that date to make it mathematically impossible for Bernie to still have a chance. I think the earliest she can sew it up is the end of April. However, if the polling is accurate there is no realistic way for Bernie to make up the 300-350 delegates he'll be behind by the 15th of March. You should still definitely vote in the Caucus though.
superdeluxe
Member
Never caucused before, willing to do it for Hillary, but I know our area will be majority sanders supporters.
Thanks for the info, no wonder he is considered an outsider
Whoever you caucus for, expect a shitshow. It's basically subjecting people to peer pressure for the better part of an hour or two. Why it's still a thing I couldn't tell you.
Flying Toaster
Member
superdeluxe
Member
Great.....
User 463088
Banned
For some reason, it's cheaper than a primary.
Some people actually like it, we had some Iowan on here who really had a bunch of fun doing it. It probably helps if both sides are fairly even.
I'd say go and give it a shot. Worst comes to worst and you find it sucks, start a movement to get your state on a primary system instead.
No shit? Just from how it works I'd assume it would be more expensive.
Outtrigger888
Member
I went to a republican caucus and it was tame and no one spoke. There were about 100 people there. So not always true.
Not all states are WTA, I'm pretty sure California and New York are still proportional.
The GOP run theirs differently. Washington runs their caucus like Iowa, so there's gonna be talking.
OuterLimits
Member
Cruz will probably now have to spend money in Florida. Rubio is probably not happy. Rubio desperately needs to win his home state.
I'm trying to see a path that gives Cruz enough delegates to outright win the nomination. Cruz needs to win some winner take all states like Florida, Ohio, New York and such. NY seems slim with the values attack a month or so ago. He really needed to have some big wins in the SEC states. Still possible I guess, but losing so many southern states is making his path very difficult.
I'm trying to see a path that gives Cruz enough delegates to outright win the nomination. Cruz needs to win some winner take all states like Florida, Ohio, New York and such. NY seems slim with the values attack a month or so ago. He really needed to have some big wins in the SEC states. Still possible I guess, but losing so many southern states is making his path very difficult.
User 463088
Banned
A primary is typically paid for by the state. A Caucus is a party function. It's cheaper for the state. Still a disaster though.
I would agree with this. Might as well give it a try to see what it is all about. I caucuses in Iowa for Hillary and I had a good time, for the most part. I can see why some people wouldn't like it.
I have a funny feeling that it will be a closer fight for second now in Florida now since Rubio's support seems to have stalled lately or has been declining.I still expect rubio to get second, but he won't beat trump.
Black Republican
Member
oh this thread doubles as a march 8-15 super tuesday thread? cool
my predictions:
March 6:
Primary Open - Puerto Rico - Rubio
Caucus Closed - Maine - Sanders
March 8th
Primary Open - Mississippi - Clinton & Trump
Primary Open - Michigan - Clinton & Trump
Primary Closed - Idaho - Cruz
Caucus Closed - Hawaii - Cruz
my predictions:
March 6:
Primary Open - Puerto Rico - Rubio
Caucus Closed - Maine - Sanders
March 8th
Primary Open - Mississippi - Clinton & Trump
Primary Open - Michigan - Clinton & Trump
Primary Closed - Idaho - Cruz
Caucus Closed - Hawaii - Cruz
Orbis Tabula
Member
So, I was drinking tonight and missed the results. But as far as I can tell, Bernie and Clinton had good nights. And Trump and Cruz did as well?
OpinionatedCyborg
Member
These look very solid. I second all of them.
Question is, will Cruz reach 50% in Idaho? Will Trump meet the 20% threshold in Puerto Rico? Does Kasich finish second or even challenge for first in Michigan? It will be interesting to see if Rubio is collapsing and support is indeed coalescing behind Cruz... if so, Mississippi may be in play for Cruz.
It was a troubling night for Trump. I think he hit all of his delegate targets to still be on track for 1237, but Cruz performed much better than expected. Whether that was due to the nature of the contests (3/4 were caucuses and all of them were closed), the geographical location, or indeed a surge of support for Cruz, it's hard to say... but it does appear that Rubio is fading and Cruz is picking up his scraps, which is bad news for Trump.
excelsiorlef
Member
Reality is though at this point Clinton having a good night means Sanders had a bad one.
From what I heard from someone that works at the NBC that talked to someone in Cruz's camp some of Rubio's support got tired of supporting Rubio lately because of his antics and were deciding on who else they can support. They were looking for someone like Rubio and they decided on Cruz. That same cruz official also said that anyone in the race can take florida right now besides Rubio.
https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/706327386875252736
Unless rubio fixes his campaign I expect this downward trend of his to continue. He should stop attacking trump by stooping to his level if he wants to stop bleeding his support.
youngplaya21
Member
I'm not too well versed in politics (trying to fix that), but someone at work is mentioning that if someone with delegate counts drops out (for example Carson and 3 votes) and endorses another candidate (let's say Rubio), that the endorsed candidate gets the others votes (so Rubio gets Carson's 3 vote). Is that anywhere close to true? I can't find anything on Google about it, and I don't hear anything even mentioning that as a game plan to stop Trump. Sounds farfetched, but was just wondering
- Status