Super Tuesday 2016 |OT| The Final Incursion is a double Incursion (Mar 5-15 contests)

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SolarPowered said:
It's all in the narrative. Bernie needs the win tonight even if he leaves with a gaping hole in his abdomen.
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StylesClash said:
LOL wow guys and gals.

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It's actually a very big deal. SolarPowered is right. Even if the delegates are split even, this is an upset that will help the narrative. Remember that one of Bernie's biggest challenges up until now was the argument of electability. Seeing victories build up early on like this (Kansas, Nebraska, Maine, Michigan) help with momentum if nothing else, and momentum is what his campaign is built on and relies on.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

Just for general knowledge, Bernie is behind the goal he needs to hit to win enough delegates by 14%. His campaign can still do this. It'll be an uphill battle but it's not over.
 
DNC is clearly in the tank for Clinton with these magical bonus delegates. Time for her to drop out!
/s

But honestly, it's good that Bernie can stay in and perhaps put more pressure on Clinton to move closer to his policies, at the very least. This centrist bullshit that worked in 1992 isn't going to fly anymore.
 
I think what's blowing my mind is that all Sanders needed to do was be even remotely competitive in the South and he'd be right in this. He chose to abandon it.

The northern strategy is going to cost him still barring a miracle. Reality is Clinton is competitive in the north and Sanders wasn't in the south.
 
last couple of hours:

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Nothing1016 said:
Another question. Since I am uniformed, whats the difference between super and regular delegates?
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Pledged delegates are the delegates the candidates earn through the results of each state's primaries.

Superdelegates are predetermined party leads and other VIPs who also vote at convention in the party's best interest. Historically, superdelegates always vote with the majority favor — whoever earned the most pledged delegates. To do otherwise would split the vote, guarantee a loss to the other party, and perhaps really harm the party itself.
 
Nothing1016 said:
Another question. Since I am uniformed, whats the difference between super and regular delegates?
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Regular delegates are pledged to who their state voted for (proportionally) until after the first vote at the convention.

If there isn't a winner after the first vote, they can then vote for whomever they want in the votes after it. Superdelegates can vote for whomever they want whenever they want, but they are largely overblown since it has to be a near tie for them to even matter.
 
Nothing1016 said:
It doesn't seem like these reasons are good enough to overcome a 670 delegate gap.. but maybe I'm naive.
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You're not naive at all. Sanders cannot make up the gap. "The polls might be wrong - you never know" is kind of the last gasp of hopeful optimists and idealists that don't want to let go of their dream.

This mentality always annoys me because rarely are the polls that wrong, but at the same time it encourages voter turnout. I kinda feel like Clinton's loss in Michigan tonight was in part fueled by the idea that she has the election in the bag, so a lot of people who would have voted for her didn't bother to show up.
 
NimbusD said:
I mean sure, if you mean in the sense that anything but an outright huge win is something that CNN and others won't spin into a Clinton positive thing.
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Yeah, the big difference between a 51-49 and a 49-51 is the media narrative that arises, moreso than the tiny delegate difference. The big story here isn't that Bernie won Michigan. It's that he beat his polling average b a crazy amount. Even if he lost, beating the polling average by that much is good news for him. Having the "Sanders Resurgent" media narrative is just icing.
 
pigeon said:
Wait, I'd like to see the math on this. I don't think Bernie can win by racking up a bunch of 55-45 wins. He's just too far behind. He needs to start getting blowouts.

Now, let me be clear -- this is still a big win. Bernie jumped 20 points in the polls in Michigan. If he jumps 20 points in the polls nationwide, it's a real race. It's still a race he's likely to lose, but that would be a big deal.

More importantly, if Bernie is actually doing better with African-American voters, and if he actually has found his revolution and started turning out youth voters, those are both very, very important for the future of the race.

But it's very hard to tell anything right away, and as noted, Mississippi suggests the opposite is true. We'll need a few more days to get a better view of what just happened.
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Are there any more states in which he can conceivably replicate New Hampshire-style wins? I'd love to check out the map, but I need to head to bed. Tomorrow morning, I'm helping CNN set up their upcoming Republican debate.
 
NihonTiger90 said:
DNC is clearly in the tank for Clinton with these magical bonus delegates. Time for her to drop out!
/s

But honestly, it's good that Bernie can stay in and perhaps put more pressure on Clinton to move closer to his policies, at the very least. This centrist bullshit that worked in 1992 isn't going to fly anymore.
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The future of the party sort of relies on Democrats not being ashamed of being Liberal.

The younger generation and Sanders are dragging the party to the left.

Hopefully it sticks.
 
maabus1999 said:
Uhhh no....just most people not into politics or party rules (majority of Bernie supporters to be honest) have no idea how primaries work on either the GOP or Dem side.
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Probably should have put a /s tag on my post but, oh well.

Worth it for the good ol' finger wag at the youngin's that have no clue about anything.
 
x3sphere said:
Terrible night for Rubio, he really needs to drop out. If anything it would give Kasich more attention and he seems to be gaining some momentum at least.
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mo60 said:
Like 200 votes separate Kasich and Cruz now. Can Kasich stay in second in Michigan. I hope he does.
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Looks like Cruz just jumped to 2nd in Michigan--that has to be devastating to Kasich if it holds. Not that he had a chance anyway, but still. I hate Cruz more than I do Kasich, but if this holds I really wonder what Kasich will do since that's much worse than he expected to do here.
 
nib95 said:
But that sort of bullying and crass appeal only really appeals to a certain demographic. I can't see the middle and left being enamoured with it. I feel like Bernie has it in him to make socialism attractive again, which to be fair, he's sort of already doing.
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That's the thing - I can't see the middle and the right being able to stomach voting for a socialist. He's got decades of American propaganda against him. It really seems like a big gamble... even if Trump is a crass racist bully.

mugurumakensei said:
Here's the thing. With voter ID laws on the books in more than few swing states, the Democratic Party needs an energized set of voters. Trump actually has that on the Republican side. I fear Trump vs Hillary will almost certainly hand Trump the presidency.
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I think Sanders could more easily hand Trump a presidency, for the reasons I gave above.
 
Good win for bernie.

Also, I wonder what happens if Rubio gets no delegates from any state tonight.Hawaii may prevent this from happening to him, but it's kinda weird how this may be possible tonight.
 
Valhelm said:
Are there any more states in which he can conceivably replicate New Hampshire-style wins? I'd love to check out the map, but I need to head to bed. Tomorrow morning, I'm helping CNN set up their upcoming Republican debate.
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It's not just getting that big margin, it's about doing it in delegate rich states.
 
We're finally in the Rocky 2 phase of the democratic primaries. After going the distance in Iowa he came back in Michigan and took the title. Let's see what happens on March 15th!
 
The autopsy on the polling and wtf happened in the actual vote in MI will be super fascinating. Anything to make sure the Clintons don't become complacent. Even Obama lost a ton in 08. Keep working and keep fighting.

It's also clear Bernie's staying in it till June and that's fine, he should. He's gonna win a bunch of contests coming up. But barring a disaster, Super Tuesday killed his actual chances. That delegate lead is gonna be tough to overcome.
 
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