The 2017 Annual Tesla Shareholder Meeting on June 6th blew the lid off of new updates on Model 3, Model Y, and Tesla Semi, while also providing updates on more mundane business matters. One massive update was about the number of Gigafactories Tesla is planning around the world. CEO Elon Musk shared that it is planning for at least 10 Gigafactories, but could build as many as 20.
The variance in his estimate is based on how other manufacturers respond to the challenge Tesla has thrown down. Lets wind the tape back for a minute. Elon noted in the past that the world would need approximately 100 Gigafactories to produce all of the energy storage and electric vehicles it would need. His announcement today that Tesla would build 10 Gigafactories implies that it will own 10% of the worlds future energy storage and electric vehicle capacity.
Assuming Tesla can sell its cars, the full manufacturing capacity of those Gigafactories will come straight out of the market share of existing automotive companies. If they do not respond to the inevitable shift of consumers to electric vehicles in time, Tesla will have more time to eat up their market share. That clearly includes the market share of BMW, Audi, Mercedes, and Lexus, among others. Tesla estimating that it will build 10 to 20 Gigafactories is a statement that Tesla believes it will have to build at least 10 Gigafactories at the current pace before other manufacturers catch up. If they respond slower, which seems to be the case with every automotive manufacturer today with the exception of perhaps Chevrolet and its Bolt, Tesla would have an even larger head start in the transition to electric vehicles and would be able to build more factories before there were enough competition to saturate the market.
