MLB Insider...July 21: Billy Beane & Brian Sabean; LaTroy Hawkins; Rumors
Beane, Sabean surveying landscape
By Jerry Crasnick
Michael Lewis devotees aren't the only ones waiting for Oakland general manager Billy Beane to go "Moneyball" before the July 31 non-waiver deadline. Beane routinely finds messages in his in-box from Brian Cashman, Paul DePodesta and other colleagues who good-naturedly prod him about his plans for the Athletics.
Beane's mind is always racing with possibilities, and it's a hoot riding shotgun. "I know you're up to something," Cashman wrote him in a recent email, as if Beane might actually reveal what.
Beane is pathologically disinclined to let a major trade pass without working his way into the discussions. He spotted an opening during the recent Houston-Kansas City trade talks, quickly got involved, and managed to obtain a closer in Octavio Dotel as part of a three-way transaction. But that was back in the stone age -- June 24, to be exact.
Now the deadline is 10 days away, and Beane hasn't even elicited a mention as a possible partner in a Randy Johnson three-way. He even spent the All-Star break going fly-fishing to relax and recharge. Either he's slipping, or it's a slow summer on the dealing desk.
Truth is, Beane doesn't even consider himself the slickest operator in the Bay Area, much less the major leagues. He awards that designation to Giants GM Brian Sabean, who keeps a tighter lid on things and is better at springing surprises.
"We usually have a lot of teams involved when we do it, so everybody kind of figures it out," Beane said. "Brian does it with much more stealth. His dorsal fin is always below the surface."
While it's hard to say if Beane or Sabean will make an impact move between now and July 31, recent history tells you it won't be for lack of imagination or effort.
A's GM Billy Beane is always looking to deal, but he insists Barry Zito is not available.
Since taking over for Sandy Alderson in Oakland seven years ago, Beane has made 13 trades in July. His list of additions for the month includes Tim Worrell, Terrence Long, Jason Isringhausen, Kevin Appier, Jim Mecir, Jermaine Dye, Ted Lilly, Ray Durham, Ricardo Rincon and Jose Guillen.
Of course, Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson and Barry Zito provide a degree of stability that allows the Athletics to build momentum and make big runs after the All-Star break. But Beane's ability to fill gaps is a significant factor in Oakland's 214-119 record and .643 winning percentage after the trade deadline since 1998. That's the best in baseball over a six-year stretch.
This year Beane is looking at another roster in need of tinkering. Oakland's pitching ranks second in the American League with a 4.04 ERA, even though the bullpen has been a mess at times, Zito is 5-7, 4.42 and Hudson has missed three weeks with a strained stomach muscle. Surprisingly, the Athletics have increased their production from 4.74 to 4.96 runs a game even with the departure of Miguel Tejada to Baltimore through free agency.
Beane's two biggest objectives for the pennant race are an offensive upgrade at second base, where Marco Scutaro has played well enough but has a .305 on-base percentage, and more help for the 'pen. Finances, as usual, are a consideration. Baltimore would be happy to move Jerry Hairston Jr., but he's making $1.65 million and could more than double that in 2005. He also ran into a wall playing the outfield Tuesday.
One rumor that needs to be put to rest is Oakland's interest in trading Zito, because Beane insists it's fictional.
"People keep asking me, 'Are you worried about him?' No, I'm not worried about him," Beane said. "With (Rich) Harden pitching the way he is, we have a chance to win every game that our staff starts. That's the wild card we have, and it probably isn't a great idea to do anything to disrupt that."
Across the Bay in San Francisco, Sabean's biggest concern is staying close to the Dodgers until they come back to reality. In a perfect world, he'd add another starter and a reliever who could be a closer alternative to Matt Herges. Give Sabean a third wish, and he'd acquire a bat for a lineup that has five players with 49 or more RBI, but still looks vulnerable on days that Barry Bonds takes a rest.
Jose Mesa is a relief possibility for the Giants, and so is Ugueth Urbina, if the Tigers drop out of the race and the Cubs don't get him first. Like San Diego's Kevin Towers, Sabean wonders if there might actually be more activity in August. Although teams will need to acquire waivers to consummate deals next month, wild-card realism will have also have taken hold.
"First of all, this isn't a difference-maker kind of market," Sabean said. "And there might be 20 teams who think they still have hope. Only the sellers control the market, and right now there aren't that many sellers. Nobody's waving the white flag yet."
SabeanWhile Sabean's July trade history isn't as extensive as Beane's, it's just as impressive. He picked up Ellis Burks at the deadline in 1998 and added Livan Hernandez for Jason Grilli and Nate Bump a year later. He pulled off an all-time heist in 2001, adding Jason Schmidt and John Vander Wal from Pittsburgh for Ryan Vogelsong and Armando Rios.
Last year Sabean sent three young pitchers to Baltimore at the deadline for Sidney Ponson, who returned to the Orioles as a free agent in the offseason. This year, he claims, "We're not really interested in renting a player."
The Giants will also buck their history and refrain from trading pitching prospects for immediate help. Matt Cain, Merkin Valdez and David Aardsma, who's closing games for the Triple-A Fresno Grizzlies, in all likelihood aren't going anywhere. "We have pitchers who are as good as anybody who's come through here," Sabean said.
All those factors -- a thin group of available players, a crowded wild-card picture, money concerns and the hesitancy of clubs to trade prospects for short-term help -- could make for lots of rumors and minimal action in a week. But when trade talk is prevalent on chat boards and talk radio, you know what's going on in front offices.
"I always say, 'This year we're going to kick back a little,' " Beane said. "Then the season comes around and I start to get antsy."
Which means Beane is making everybody else antsy -- and he can look forward to plenty of inquiring emails from his colleagues between now and July 31.
Hawkins set up to fail?
By Rob Neyer
If I've heard it once I've heard it a hundred times ... "There's a big difference between pitching the eighth inning and pitching the ninth."
But is there, really? I'm skeptical. But the question occurred to me again Tuesday, while watching LaTroy Hawkins pitch. Before we review the game's events, though, let's take a moment and review Hawkins' unlikely career.
LaTroy Hawkins is 12-for-16 in save opportunities this season.
In the middle 1990s, Hawkins was considered one of the Minnesota Twins' very finest prospects, mostly because of an outstanding 1993 season in the Midwest League. Hawkins quickly advanced to the majors, joining the Twins' rotation in 1995. And for most of five seasons, he struggled terribly. Entering 2000, Hawkins was 26-44 with a 6.16 ERA in the majors.
Hawkins hasn't started a game since. In 2000 the Twins sent him to the bullpen, and that made all the difference in the world (mostly because Hawkins struck out more hitters and gave up fewer home runs). In 14 save opportunities that season, Hawkins recorded 14 saves. He wasn't ever the "closer," though. Hawkins saved two games at the end of May, another a month later, four in July, two in August, and five in September. At no point in that season was Hawkins the closer for more than a few days in a row. Hawkins' 14 saves led the Twins, but Bob Wells saved 10 and Eddie Guardado saved nine. Wells actually pitched better than Hawkins that season, but in 2001 Hawkins was awarded the closer's job at the start of the season.
He did save 28 games in 2001. But he also blew nine saves, lost five games, and posted a 5.96 ERA. The chief culprit? Hawkins' strikeout rate, which fell precipitously (he actually walked more hitters than he struck out, which isn't all that easy to do). It was that season that convinced a lot of people that Hawkins just doesn't have the necessary qualities of a real closer.
The Twins still didn't give up on Hawkins, though. In 2002 they sent him back to the bullpen -- granted, not to finish games -- and he thrived. Over that season and the next, Hawkins saved only two games (both in 2003), but in 158 innings he won 15 games, lost only three, struck out 138 hitters, and posted a nifty 2.00 ERA.
And that, of course, earned Hawkins a nifty contract from the Cubs last winter.
LaTroy Hawkins
Closer
Cubs
Profile
2004 SEASON STATISTICS
IP H SO BB S ERA
50.1 43 38 9 12 2.86
The Cubs didn't think enough of Hawkins, though, to make him the closer. The Cubs preferred Joe Borowski. Now, Borowski was a good pitcher in 2002 and 2003, and he saved 33 games in the latter season. But if you compared Borowski to Hawkins, for just those two seasons, it would have been awfully hard to conclude that Borowski was the better pitcher. If I'd been running the Cubs, I would have made Hawkins the closer, because 1) he's better, and 2) I didn't really buy the argument that some pitchers -- LaTroy Hawkins, for example -- are somehow missing the magical quality that would allow them to retire hitters in the ninth inning of a close game. (That's what they said about Jason Grimsley in Kansas City, that he would spit the bit if asked to protect a ninth-inning lead. I didn't really believe that, either.)
And then I watched Hawkins on Tuesday, and I wondered if I'd been wrong about him.
He lost it. It was hot in Chicago and the St. Louis hitters were hotter, so one can certainly understand Hawkins' frustration. But while losing one game doesn't tell us all that much about Hawkins' abilities, his reaction to losing one game might tell us something worth knowing. The closer role, I think, is unique among baseball jobs, in that it's the only job that seems to carry the full burden of winning or losing. It's not literally true, of course, that the result of a close game depends solely on the closer. If he blows a 2-1 lead in the ninth, it's also his teammates' fault for scoring only two runs rather than four. If he blows a 9-8 lead, it's also his teammates' fault for giving up eight runs before the ninth inning. It's easy for us to understand that, but it's not easy for every pitcher. Good closers don't get too high or too low, because if they do, the highs and lows will kill them. And when I watched Hawkins repeatedly try to escape his captors and go after the umpires, I got the distinct impression that maybe this guy just shouldn't be a closer.
The skeptic in me still thinks that Hawkins, if he's given the chance, will someday save 30 games in a season. The realist in me thinks that after what happened against the Cardinals, Hawkins will never be given that chance (though he should be), because baseball men harbor unhealthy prejudices. What I don't know is whether the skeptic or the realist is closer, in this case, to the truth.
D-Backs continue scouting process
WHO INTERESTED THE SKINNY
Randy Johnson
Diamondbacks
Yankees
Red Sox
Angels
Dodgers?
Cubs?
White Sox
Jul. 21 - According to reports, the Diamondbacks are scouting the organizations of the Yankees, Angels, Cubs and Red Sox in hopes of finding a deal worth making for the Big Unit. However, Johnson would then have to approve that trade, and indications are he still would waive his no-trade clause only for one team -- the Yankees. The D-Backs scouted the Yankees' Triple-A club in Columbus, Ohio for the second time over the weekend, according to the New York Daily News. They were specifically evaluating infielder Robinson Cano and catcher Dioner Navarro, New York's top prospects.
Johnson's agent, Barry Meister, told the Arizona Republic he doubts his client will be traded before the July 31 deadline. He aslo reiterated that Johnson has not asked for a trade. "And he has certainly not presented a list of teams he would be willing to play for, nor has the team asked him to present a list," the agent told the paper.
The Newark Star-Ledger on July 21 reported that Arizona has asked New York to include catcher Jorge Posada in a deal for Johnson.
The Red Sox, who have been rumored to be pondering a three-way trade to acquire prospects from the Cubs for Nomar Garciaparra, then package them to Arizona for Johnson, reportedly are less than enthused about chasing Johnson. The Boston Herald cites multiple sources who say the team's interest in Johnson is "tepid."
The Angels appear to be the second-most likely candidate to acquire Johnson, as they have the prospects to offer and appear to be headed for the playoffs. Thursday's injury to Cubs starter Mark Prior could make the Cubs more of a factor in the Johnson chase, although there have been indications the D-Backs are in no hurry to trade Johnson at all.
WHO INTERESTED THE SKINNY
Steve Finley
Diamondbacks
Marlins
Padres
Phillies
Dodgers
Rangers
Jul. 21 - The D-Backs might wait to see what they can get for Steve Finley before dealing Randy Johnson, The Arizona Republic reports.
The Marlins and Padres have been mentioned as strong contenders for the 39-year-old center fielder, a four-time NL Gold Glove winner. As a player with 10 years in the majors and the past five with the same team, Finley has the right to refuse a trade.
The South Florida Sun-Sentinel reports Finley is the Marlins' primary target. The Marlins reportedly would ask the D-Backs to pay a portion of Finley's remaining salary. He is owed about $2.85M this season.
WHO INTERESTED THE SKINNY
Kris Benson
Pirates
Mets
Phillies
Rangers
Twins
Jul. 21 - The Pirates have turned down offers from the Mets (3B Ty Wigginton) and Phillies (Double-A 1B Ryan Howard), the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports.
According to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark, the bidding on Benson will likely go right to the deadline. GM Dave Littlefield has no fear of that last-minute pre-deadline frenzy. And his asking price for Benson has other clubs grumbling. It's believed Littlefield has asked the Mets for David Wright, the Rangers for Laynce Nix, the Twins for Michael Cuddyer and the Phillies for Chase Utley. The price for other inquiring clubs is in the same stratosphere.
Benson is prepared to move. "I'm getting my stuff in order just in case, so I'm not scrambling," the 29-year-old right-hander told the Tribune-Review. "My house is cleaned up and I'm trying to get the stuff in my locker cleaned up."
WHO INTERESTED THE SKINNY
Dan Wilson
Mariners
Twins
Jul. 21 - With rookie phenom Joe Mauer back on the disabled list because of soreness in his surgically repaired left knee, the Twins might be interested in the services of former Golden Gophers star and Mariners catcher Dan Wilson, the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports.
Wilson becomes a free agent at season's end. According to The Seattle Times, the Twins will have to give up more than their rumored offer of Michael Restovich.
WHO INTERESTED THE SKINNY
Larry Walker
Rockies
Braves
Red Sox
Jul. 21 - GM Dan O'Dowd's attempts to deal Larry Walker haven't generated much interest, The Denver Post reports. Walker, who's in the fifth year of a six-year contract worth $76 million, has a complete no-trade clause.
"I did not ask for a trade," Walker told The Post. "I do not want to be traded. I'm very happy and content here. We both agreed on a contract for six years. If they want to make a move, then that's up to them. I'll listen, but it doesn't mean I'm going anywhere."
According to The Post, GM Dan O'Dowd has also found it difficult to move center fielder Preston Wilson and catcher Charles Johnson primarily because of their high salaries.
WHO INTERESTED THE SKINNY
John Olerud
Mariners
Braves
Padres
Jul. 21 - The Braves and Padres are showing the most interest in the recently released Olerud, who rejected a deal last month to the Giants, The Seattle Times reports.
Atlanta would like some late-inning defensive relief at first base to spell rookie Adam LaRoche and 45-year-old Julio Franco.
WHO INTERESTED THE SKINNY
Bret Boone
Mariners
?
Jul. 20 - Several GMs insist that now that the Mariners have been unable to move Bret Boone because of his 2005 vesting option for $8.5 million that they may release him and risk a huge grievance, ESPN's Peter Gammons reports.
If that's the case, someone is going to get a big-time winner for the stretch. Someone like the Yankees.
TEAM INTEREST THE SKINNY
Pitching
Jul. 21 - The Phillies appear increasingly resigned to not being able to upgrade their disappointing rotation, ESPN.com's Jayson Stark reports. According to clubs that have spoken with them, their short list is apparently down to Kris Benson, Ramon Ortiz and (should the Reds decide they're sellers) Paul Wilson or Cory Lidle.
The Phillies made inquiries on Randy Johnson, Barry Zito, Derek Lowe, Livan Hernandez and Matt Morris.
The Phillies are also expected to add at least one bullpen piece preferably a left-hander (with Seattle's Ron Villone near the top of their list).
TEAM INTEREST THE SKINNY
Right-handed reliever
Jul. 20 - Cardinals GM Walt Jocketty is searching the market for a right-handed middle reliever, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. Pittsburgh's Jose Mesa and Detroit's Ugueth Urbina both of whom are closers reportedly have attracted the team's interest. The Post-Dispatch also reports the Cards might swing a deal for a left fielder, though Jocketty downplayed the possibility, saying, "Offense isn't our problem."
WHO INTERESTED THE SKINNY
Mike Sweeney
Royals
Angels
Athletics
Diamondbacks
Dodgers
Giants
Mariners
Padres
Jul. 21 - The Royals also have contacted some of the clubs on Sweeney's list of teams to which he can be traded, letting them know they're willing to talk about moving him, ESPN.com's Jayson Stark reports. The teams to which Sweeney is open are the Angels, A's, Mariners, Dodgers, Giants, Padres and Diamondbacks. It's still a long shot, but GM Allard Baird has told clubs he owes it to Sweeney to see if he can find a home for him with a contender.
