ryutaro's mama
Member
None of us know but I feel safe in saying I think JC has something planned for us all. Will it be AHBUHDAR 1 grosses? Naw, but I think it will do well.
Arnold as Quattrick's brother plzkthxbye.
The Force Awakens OW tracking @ 170-220M, BO.com predicting to outgross Avatar
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None of us know but I feel safe in saying I think JC has something planned for us all. Will it be AHBUHDAR 1 grosses? Naw, but I think it will do well.
Arnold as Quattrick's brother plzkthxbye.
CrichtonKicks
Member
But that's not true- True Lies did worse than T2. The Abyss did worse than Aliens.
He's been very successful with arguably only one financial failure (The Abyss) and very, very few Hollywood filmmakers can say that. Amazing track record. I just think the whole "don't bet against Cameron" and "Only Cameron beats Cameron" is a silly narrative. Everyone saying that people are setting themselves up with insanely high expectations for TFA should apply the same level of scrutiny to Avatar 2 as well.
Realistically it's probably someone that isn't in the discussion now that beats Cameron. Because if you want to talk track record it's Lucas->Spielberg->Cameron.
BronsonLee
Member
I have no idea what is being discussed right now.
All box office threads will eventually devolve into fighting over Avatar if given sufficient time with no new news.
EASTC0AST_GH05T
Member
Wondering if I can see this on opening day when I didn't reserve any tickets, I doubt it since I am in a huge college town.
Does your local theatre have reserved seating on regular 2D/3D showings? If not, do you feel like standing in like for 2-3 hours Thursday afternoon?
BronsonLee
Member
Everyone should just go watch Creed anyway. Fuck a blockbuster, gimme Rocky
CrichtonKicks
Member
It's a wide enough range that it's close to almost everybody's predictions...
$80-180M below some people's predictions in earlier prediction threads.
ryutaro's mama
Member
ryutaro's mama bait right here
CrichtonKicks
Member
True but , I did say "almost everybody". There are obviously some outliers. It feels like the more realistic narrative for a while has been more "we don't know if it can take opening weekend but it's going to at least be in the conversation" and that seems like exactly what $170-220M says as well.
Only open seats at this point in my town opening night are wheelchair spots.
bobawesome
Member
I'm talking about boxoffice.com 220M OW and 780M domestic.
My prediction in the FA prediction thread was
OW: 228M
Domestic: 810M
OS: 1.4B
WW: 2.210B
Their multiplier is almost the same.
They originally had Age of Ultron at $217M opening weekend for what that's worth. On the other hand, Jurassic World was sitting around $130M on BO.com going into its opening.
Yeah, they have been way off on some big blockbusters. The higher they go the harder to predict.
ZehDon
Member
In terms of BO, sure, I can't argue with that obviously. However, I wasn't just referring to the financial performance. Each of his films have been more ambitious, risky and pushed technical limits further than the one before. Cameron makes films that draw people back to the cinema again and again. And, frankly, he's pretty damn good at it at this point.
Of course. It's worth remember though, that while Avatar was a good-not-great film, Cameron still gets the benefit of the doubt, because he made two of the best and most successful sequels of all time. Of course, without the "freshness" of 3D, I will be interested to see how Avatar 2 performs.
All fanboy-ism aside, you're probably right.
I'm certainly not gonna go all in on James Cameron making another #1 box office smash, but regardless of his previous output, as prolific as it was, there's something pretty extraordinary about his most recent two. It still boggles my mind that Titanic utterly destroys the box office in 1997, then Cameron disappears from the industry. In that time, every Star Wars prequel is released. The LOTR trilogy, six Harry Potter films, Pixar heavyweights, Pirates of the Caribbean, an array of superhero films. I remember when The Dark Knight cracked a billion. That felt like a massive deal at the time. None of them reach Titanic, in fact, none of them even really get all that close. The closest was ROTK, and was still short by 500mil I think?
After 12 years, Cameron returns and not only does he beat Titanic's record - he beats it by almost a $billion. And there STILL isn't another film that's beaten Titanic in 2015. I just find that astonishing. I mean, it's not as though the market's slowed down or studios are putting an emphasis on smaller films these days or something. It's pretty much the opposite of that. Every year, every studio comes charging with the biggest, most accessible shit they've got. Despite this, despite the foreign market massively opening up, seemingly every blockbuster under the sun landing a billion dollars these days, despite the inflation over 18 years etc, Titanic would still be #1 if it weren't for Avatar. Those are some crazy statistics.
So it's not so much that we've all forgotten his career before these two films. Just that it's such a ludicrous, extraordinary story that's worth focusing on. Once again, I wouldn't bank on Cameron's next film beating Avatar - I wouldn't bet any film do that, but right now, looking at the current box office, the only person who can beat James Cameron is James Cameron, and when he does, he does it big-time.
That thread:
Haha wow
Edit: Full circle
True Savior
Member
How many tickets though?
bananafactory
Banned
So I just read this article:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...-opening-weekend-record-just-got-less-likely/
I still don't understand why it's opening on so many fewer screens?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...-opening-weekend-record-just-got-less-likely/
I still don't understand why it's opening on so many fewer screens?
A bunch of sold out Thursday help distribute the load better.
Some theaters (drive-ins; theaters in vacation destinations) aren't open at all in December - not a huge portion of the national total, but that still cuts into the number of available screens.
Chezzymann
Member
If it makes the same average of $48,000 per theater that jurrasic world did, Star Wars would "only" make $190 million on its opening weekend due to the lower theater count. I wonder if the extra theater showings will make up for that and boost the average per theater to over $50,000. It would have to have an average of $54,000 per theater to do it. I dont think thats too unreasonable.
ryutaro's mama
Member
A ton of theaters are running round the clock showings (at least for opening weekend) so that should drive the P.S.A. higher, in and of itself. On the other hand, a bunch of my friends have decided to stay away for opening weekend to avoid the crowds.
It will be interesting either way.
CrichtonKicks
Member
As I believe Bobby Roberts pointed out in another thread, the narrative that the opening weekend is already sold out (when it clearly isn't) could be potentially damaging. A lot of people may stay away under the assumption that there are no tickets left or that the crowds are too huge.
PHOENIXZERO
Member
Jurassic World still feels like an anomaly and it's odd how so many predict TFA to have a bigger opening than any previous Star Wars before it and for some some almost a big of an opening as all three PT movies combined. To out gross Avatar would mean also earning more at the box office than those movies combined as well. The expectations are ridiculous.
EDIT: Or well out grossing a combination of two of the three movies domestically which is still absurd.
EDIT2: D'oh, I wasn't looking at adjusted numbers.
EDIT: Or well out grossing a combination of two of the three movies domestically which is still absurd.
EDIT2: D'oh, I wasn't looking at adjusted numbers.
Ticket prices are from 1999/early 2000s are vastly different vs today.
Phantom Menace made 753 mil domestic when you adjust for inflation. Not even taking into cosbiseration 3D/IMAX up charges.
If TFA sells as many tickets domestically as TPM it will beat Avatar.
Dr. Feel Good
Banned
Brace yourselves.
PHOENIXZERO
Member
D'oh, the numbers I was looking at weren't adjusted when I thought they already were.
You forgot to subtract the 3D re-release from the Phantom Menace.
All those broken links...
Still over 700 mil, no?
Ya. $707M.
Jedi and Empire Strikes Back had initial runs in the mid $600s adjusted as well.
CassidyIzABeast
Member
210 OW
500M DOM
650M WW
500M DOM
650M WW
Huh? Those numbers don't make sense.
RastaMentality
Banned
I think he means international. So a total of $1.1bn which is definitely a lowball imo.
It is literally impossible for a movie to open at 210 in December and only finish 500 mil domestic unless it has crazy bad legs. It would need disastrously bad legs and toxic word of mouth.
Your prediction implies you think to going to be awful. And adjusted for inflation be the worst grossing Star Wars movie domestically alongside Attack of the Clones, far far behind Revenge of the Sith even.
I don't understand this prediction at all, unless like mentioned you think it's going to be awful.
BronsonLee
Member
Revenge of the Sith Adjusts to $495M domestic. Clones adjusts to $433M domestic. Assuming that $650M was supposed to be international, that would probably be in the ballpark of Sith's adjusted overseas gross (not trying to take into consideration any market changes in the past 10 years).
Which is just as insane. There is no way the interest in this is only on par with the third prequel. AOTC adjusts to 445 mil
Especially with his high OW prediction. It is basically impossible to do 210 mil OW in Dec and them land at 500 mil without terrible legs for December.
I just can't see how with Christmas holiday legs that is mathematically possible without massive drops.
Especially with his high OW prediction. It is basically impossible to do 210 mil OW in Dec and them land at 500 mil without terrible legs for December.
I just can't see how with Christmas holiday legs that is mathematically possible without massive drops.
Ignoring the fact that most people in this thread just throw out random uninformed guesses, Sith's Adjusted 4-day opening is pretty close to that $210M. Granted that was May and a 4 day opening. Not mid December and a 3.5 day opening.
Sith-like interest and reception would still likely translate to $550-600M due to the inflated holidays.
Succinct Verbosity
Member
We've had some good sci-fi recently, but hopefully Star Wars rebirth leads to a second golden age in the genre. After all, Star Wars lead to a new Star Trek, which also lead to Stargate, Sliders or any number of sci-fi franchises.
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