It's decent, nowhere near as bad as people make it out to be.
The Force Awakens OW tracking @ 170-220M, BO.com predicting to outgross Avatar
- Thread starter wachie
- Start date
- Status
Almost every movie that people hate on gaf isn't as bad as they're made out to be with only a few rare exceptions like...oh, I don't know...Batman and Robin maybe?
Ah, makes sense, and Batman and Robin is god awful!
massivekettle
Member
I agree... which makes me think... what does he have up his sleeve for Avatar 2?
I'm definitely selling Avatar 2 short.
Tricky I Shadow
Banned
WAT? Avatar 2 not making 1 billion? Star Wars overtaking Avatar's worldwide gross? What the hell are you guys on?!
Come to Butt-Head
Banned
I think he meant to say two billion.
TAJ
Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.
No, he clearly meant $1 billion.
Nah. Everyone who wanted to see it, saw it. The rest of the public who didn't, didn't. It's not rocket science.
But I'm too lazy to discuss this. I'll just repost what I said in another thread
The "Imagine what Ep1 could have done if it was good!" argument was always BS. The film had a better than 4x multiplier to its 5-day opening. It wasn't The Lost World, where people didn't bother to show up after the first weekend or two due to poor WOM.
The Phantom Menace had better legs than Independance Day domestically.
TheKaeptain
Banned
People need to realize that Avatar didn't just make over 2 billion. It made 2.7 billion.
brickarts295
Member
It will have the best opening weekend no doubt about it. It won't beat Avatar but it'll definitely end up 3rd place under Titanic.
Just out of curiosity didn't Star Wars make like a billion domestic when adjusted?
Just out of curiosity didn't Star Wars make like a billion domestic when adjusted?
CrichtonKicks
Member
Domestically, Titanic and E.T. are about tied for the most attended first runs in movie history. Star Wars and Gone with the Wind earned their places on adjusted lists with a bunch of re-releases.
Avatar wasn't even close to Titanic in terms of attendance domestically. BOM's adjusted number is wrong for Avatar, because it uses yearly ticket averages when 3D put average Avatar ticket prices well above (like 15-20%) the average for those years.
I don't know how overseas shakes down. Avatar and Titanic are still #1 and #2 adjusted, but I don't know enough about foreign currently inflation and historical exchange rates to comment on which one would end up on top.
SCULLIBUNDO
Banned
That's because it hasn't had three sequels in the 6 years since it released like every other successful blockbuster would have.
People talk about it plenty for a film that came out six years ago.
What films do people talk about more that haven't had any other related films come out since?
Chezzymann
Member
I think it's 2.8 now after a re release
But yeah I have a feeling that the sequel will perform more like a normal mega blockbuster these days and "only" make 1.2-1.5 billion
Hero_of_the_Day
Member
Yeah. It beating Avatar WW is crazy talk. It might, possibly, maybe, beat Titanic. That's at least a possibility, unlike Avatar. And people need to realize who big of a feat even that would be.
The biggest wildcard is simply how good it's going to turn out. I don't know how people are going to respond if it turns out even simply okay. People are expecting fucking greatness, from a director who has never delivered anything close to it previously. And, even as I type that and know it to be true, I'm still thinking in my head "this is going to be the greatest thing ever!"
God help us all. The next week or two is going to be crazy. Bring on the weekend box office threads!
Note that I never said "It definitely won't happen". I'd just be really surprised. Not only have people forgotten about Avatar at this point, but people are way over 3D as well. Avatar 2 in 2017 just doesn't feel like a billion dollar grossing movie to me. But who knows.
I didn't think Avatar would shit all over Titanic's record either, yet here we are.
TheKaeptain
Banned
So much money.
Both movies that crossed the 2 billion mark had very significantly less hype before release (neither cracked 100mil in their first week). What I'm saying with that? Hype doesnt mean much in the long run, it only means that'll be more frontloaded. Avatar and Titanic had great word of mouth and wide audience appeal, thing that Star Wars "lacks" in comparison (as it still is considered a franchise for 'nerds' by lots of people). So I'm a bit skeptical. I still think it'll end up doing Jurassic World numbers.
When is Avatar 2 even coming out? Assuming no more delays, enough time will have passed by Dec 2017, that Asia (minus Japan, because who knows how they will react) alone will contribute $600-700M to Avatar 2 on the lower end of things.
I don't think the sequel will match the original film, but I think inflation and expanding markets will easily carry it into the 1.5-2.0B range.
BronsonLee
Member
I know better than to bet against James Cameron doing anything at this point
Spielberg had the #1 and #2 highest grossing films of all time for a few years after Jurassic Park. Nothing lasts forever.
Hero_of_the_Day
Member
Avatar 2 is making 1.5 billion, at least. That's all there is to that. I agree the world seems to have forgotten about the first. But, the marketing machine will take care of that problem when the time is right. And crazily enough, the first will have been long enough ago that some people will have nostalgia for it.
I would expect Avatar 3 and 4 (there is a 4 now, right?) to start to drop off. But, Two is going to be a fucking beast.
SCULLIBUNDO
Banned
The common and obvious factor for the success of both is James Cameron. The man knows how to craft a movie that resonates with people.
The fact that he's been spending the last 6 years prepping the trilogy sequels is very exciting - especially since that piece about how he's been crafting the story with the other writers.
Dude wrote a 1500 page breakdown of the sequels and then worked with four writers to craft it. Shit still isn't even done. Cameron's not taking any chances.
And it's that sort of freedom that Cameron can command - the freedom to take the necessary time to craft whatever mammoth effort the director wishes to make perfect, that makes me more excited for the Avatar sequels.
JJ and company don't have that luxury. We all know JJ's preferred schedule was cut short by a whole year. Hell, sometimes it's better that it happens. Some directors don't know when to quit or what to leave on the cutting room floor. But Cameron ain't that guy.
Id' be very surprised if Avatar 2 doesn't hit $2b worldwide when it hits (hopefully) at the tail-end of 2017.
BronsonLee
Member
That reminds me I should watch Bridge of Spies. No clue how that one snuck by me.
ZehDon
Member
I made the mistake of thinking Avatar wouldn't even do Star Wars numbers before it released. Much crow was eaten. As far as I'm concerned, the only thing that moves a James Cameron movie down a peg is another James Cameron movie.
MrPressStart
Member
You underestimate the power of the force!
This movie has world wide appeal. The hype is real. The product is fantastic! And the fans will be happy, and happy Star Wars fans shatter box office records!
This movie has world wide appeal. The hype is real. The product is fantastic! And the fans will be happy, and happy Star Wars fans shatter box office records!
SCULLIBUNDO
Banned
But it doesn't have the all-encompassing demographic-wide appeal of Avatar.
Hero_of_the_Day
Member
I straight up thought Avatar was going to bomb. It felt like there was no fucking hype for it. Anecdotally it seemed like everyone I knew was underwhelmed by the trailers. Then the thing hit, then just kept hitting, every day, for weeks, then months.
D
Deleted member 22576
Unconfirmed Member
I'm curious to see if this will actually pan out.
No doubt Star Wars will be huge, but I really find it hard to believe people are still gonna be talking about it January 17th.
Not a firm prediction, just sayin' even this new star war ain't avatar.
No doubt Star Wars will be huge, but I really find it hard to believe people are still gonna be talking about it January 17th.
Not a firm prediction, just sayin' even this new star war ain't avatar.
I thought Avatar would do well, but I was expecting something closer to $750M worldwide, not domestic.
EDIT: I remember getting that third weekend gross worldwide and realizing that Titanic was going down. Even though it was obvious by that point, a lot of people refused to believe it because it seemed so crazy.
EDIT: I remember getting that third weekend gross worldwide and realizing that Titanic was going down. Even though it was obvious by that point, a lot of people refused to believe it because it seemed so crazy.
ViewtifulJC
Banned
Unlike Avatar, I expect people will continue to talk about this movie in contexts that aren't related to its box office take in 6 years
valkillmore
Member
They get $50 from my wife and I and my good buddy on Saturday of opening weekend
SCULLIBUNDO
Banned
I still remember it.
Six, maybe even five weeks out from release, Avatar had absolutely no mainstream presence. None.
People were tearing into FOX for completely fucking up the marketing of their $200m+ tentpole. I was one of them.
But what they did was a smart gamble. They saved their marketing budget for the month leading up to release. You couldn't avoid that shit. They created a flood of marketing for Avatar and it was suddenly everywhere all at once.
I much prefer that kind of approach now than having blue-balls for a year.
D
Deleted member 22576
Unconfirmed Member
Avatar is badasss.
SCULLIBUNDO
Banned
I've been following box office for over 15 years on BOM and its predecessors, and have been fairly active on GAF for a decade. For some reason tough, I never bothered to participate in box office GAF until either late 2011 or early 2012. I now wish I had posted in those threads to look at my old comments.
ryutaro's mama
Member
All I remember is MIMIC coming into just about every BO thread during AHBUHDAR's run feigning interest in seeing it and asking people to convince him he should go.
"Guys, I still don't know if I should see it or not..."
Good times.
CrichtonKicks
Member
I love Cameron but this just seems like a weird thing to hang a hat on. Dude has had an amazing career but people keep trying to make some kind of narrative that everything he makes is the biggest thing ever. T2 was huge, yes, but not the biggest thing ever. True Lies was just a normal size hit. Aliens was a surprise and did great but was still "only" the #7 movie of '86 and bracketed by movies that have since been largely forgotten ("The Golden Child" and "Back to School"). The Abyss was considered a failure in some circles and didn't make a dent in a very crowded summer.
Cameron's movies stand the test of time no doubt (seriously, who even talks about "The Golden Child" anymore) but I think people are buying too much into this myth that everything he puts out are 4 quadrant blockbusters that reach beyond the bounds of the rest of film making world,.
It's a competent if completely forgettable mighty-whitey movie.
brandonh83
Banned
Pretty fantastic. The third act is some of the best action I've seen in a while.
ryutaro's mama
Member
People are judging JC's last 2 at bats. In those, he broke the record, took 12 years off and then broke his own record.
It's like looking at Jordan's career prior to 1991 and exclaiming he wasn't always the GOAT. I mean, no one (besides him) has surpassed the WW gross he hauled in back in 1997, almost 20 fucking years ago.
BronsonLee
Member
That's what he's done the past two times and is clearly the main thing he wants to do now, so it isn't that weird.
CrichtonKicks
Member
But Cameron has worked for decades. He's not an up and comer who just found his footing. He directed two of the best action movies of all time by 1991 (arguably 3 if you include the first Terminator). Given his track record who's to say that Avatar 2 won't be True Lies (ie just a "big hit").
He's been doing that since Day 1. Terminator, Aliens, The Abyss, True Lies, and T2 are all films that delivered amazing action, state of the art visuals, but were still filled with stories that were fundamentally about some form of love and therefore had a broader appeal than a lot films that seemed superficially similar.
ZehDon
Member
I believe the saying "You're only as good as your last movie" kind of applies here. Cameron's reputation has changed over the course of his career, but he's always produced films that pushed the effects envelope. As he's progressed, he's gotten better at being a self-described "populist film maker", and as a result each movie has typically been bigger than the last.
- Status