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[sonycowboy]

I'll apologize up front for the length, but I would like to see your guys' take. IMO, the performance of the PS2 to date is nothing short of awe inspiring.

I thought I'd do a little analysis on Sony's PS2 performance vs the PSOne. As we all know, it's far and away going to be the most successful platform of all time, but exactly how successful can it be? And what are the pitfalls?

First the data. Then some forecasts. Then some speculation. Then some challenges

Total HW shipments by price point - North America

[b]Price Point          PSOne                                 PS2[/b]
$299              1,300,000                          11,250,000
$199              2,700,000                          11,000,000
$179                      0                           7,250,000
$149             11,000,000                           9,250,000
$129              7,000,000
$99              12,500,000
$49               6,250,000
[b]Total Units      40,750,000                          38,750,000[/b]

Number of Months at given Price Points - North America ( also with cumulative totals)

Price Point          PSOne   [Cumulative]                  PS2  [Cumulative]
$299                      8              8                   19            19
$199                     10             18                   12            31
$179                      0             18                   12            43
$149                     18             36                   18            61
$129                     11             47
$99                      32             79
$49                      41            120
Total Months            120                                  61

Total Worldwide HW shipments by reporting quarter

[b]Period               PSOne   [Cumulative]                  PS2  [Cumulative][/b]
Y1Q4                300,000        300,000
Y1Q1                300,000        600,000            1,410,000     1,410,000
Y1Q2                400,000      1,000,000            1,130,000     2,540,000
Y1Q3              1,000,000      2,000,000              980,000     3,520,000
Y1Q4              1,400,000      3,400,000            2,880,000     6,400,000
Y2Q1                900,000      4,300,000            4,210,000    10,610,000
Y2Q2                800,000      5,100,000            4,340,000    14,950,000
Y2Q3              2,000,000      7,100,000            4,620,000    19,570,000
Y2Q4              3,900,000     11,000,000            5,420,000    24,990,000
Y3Q1              2,500,000     13,500,000            3,690,000    28,680,000
Y3Q2              4,100,000     17,600,000            4,590,000    33,270,000
Y3Q3              4,900,000     22,500,000            8,290,000    41,560,000
Y3Q4              5,700,000     28,200,000            8,030,000    49,590,000
Y4Q1              4,620,000     32,820,000            1,610,000    51,200,000
Y4Q2              4,500,000     37,320,000            2,650,000    53,850,000
Y4Q3              5,820,000     43,140,000            8,780,000    62,630,000
Y4Q4              7,560,000     50,700,000            6,830,000    69,460,000
Y5Q1              3,720,000     54,420,000            1,840,000    71,300,000
Y5Q2              3,980,000     58,400,000              710,000    72,010,000
Y5Q3              6,810,000     65,210,000            1,990,000    74,000,000
Y5Q4              6,610,000     71,820,000            7,390,000    81,390,000
Y6Q1              1,100,000     72,920,000            6,080,000    87,470,000
Y6Q2                630,000     73,550,000            3,530,000    91,000,000
Y6Q3              2,370,000     75,920,000            5,010,000    96,010,000
Y6Q4              3,690,000     79,610,000            3,690,000
Y7Q1              2,620,000     82,230,000            2,620,000
Y7Q2              3,210,000     85,440,000            3,210,000
Y7Q3              2,820,000     88,260,000            2,820,000
Y7Q4              1,030,000     89,290,000            1,030,000
Y8Q1                340,000     89,630,000              340,000
Y8Q2                670,000     90,300,000              670,000
Y8Q3              1,900,000     92,200,000            1,900,000
Y8Q4              3,020,000     95,220,000            3,020,000
Y9Q1              1,190,000     96,410,000            1,190,000
Y9Q2                830,000     97,240,000              830,000
Y9Q3                960,000     98,200,000              960,000
Y9Q4              1,020,000     99,220,000            1,020,000
Y10Q1               500,000     99,720,000              500,000
Y10Q2               570,000    100,290,000              570,000
Y10Q3               600,000    100,890,000              600,000
Y10Q4               840,000    101,730,000              840,000
Y11Q1               760,000    102,490,000              760,000
Y11Q2                     0    102,490,000                    0
Y11Q3                     0    102,490,000                    0

Comments
1) Sony has sold almost as many PS2's as PSOne's in half the time, while still being more than twice as expensive during that time. (Sony only sold the PSOne for > $149 for 18 months vs 61 and going for the PS2)

2) Everyone says the year head start is what's done it. If you get rid of sales at the $299 price point, the PS2 has still sold twice what the PSOne sold at the $199-$149 price points and the PS2 is still at the $149 price point so far.

3) The PS2 is ASSUREDLY going to get more support in 2006, 2007, & 2008 than the PSone got in 2000, 2001, & 2002. By a LONG shot.

4) The PS2 has already sold almost as much software on the PS2 as the PSOne in half the time.

Forecasts
1) Assuming Sony sells the same percentages of PS2's as PSOne's after $149 price point: 260M units :lol

2) Assuming Sony sells the EXACT same number of PS2's as PSOne after the $149 price point: 160M units

3) Assuming Sony sells the EXACT same number of PS2's as PSOne in years 6-10: 125M units.

4) PSOne sold 960M software units. PS2 has sold 909M units. The PS2 will be WELL over 1.5B software units by the time it's done.

Speculation
1) There will be another redesign of the PSTwo that is PSOne cute and even smaller

2) We will see quite a few MEGA franchises revisit the PS2 again. GTA, Final Fantasy, some platformers, and more

3) There will be some PS2/PSP combo packs with 2 takes on the same franchise for a competative price.

4) PS2 ~could quite possibly outsell the Xbox 360 from this point forward during their lifetimes worldwide.

Challenges
1) Maybe consoles really only have a 5 year lifespan. Despite Sony's ability to extend price points, maybe the adoption at $129, $99, $79, & $49 won't be there as strongly.

2) Who's going to make games for the PS2? Will all the publishers move over to NextGen to quickly? Including Sony?

3) If the XBox360 & Revolution can do well (as well as the PS3), then the PSTwo will have much stiffer competition that the PSOne didn't have.

4) Maybe Sony will think it's better to not split their attention across 3 platforms and commit much more heavily to the PSP & PS3.

 

[koam]

The industry is shrinking :lol

 

[Speevy]

It's like a katamari with the timer turned off.

 

[Fuzzy]

2) Who's going to make games for the PS2? Will all the publishers move over to NextGen to quickly? Including Sony?

Everyone that makes PSP games might port those over to the PS2 to make some easy money.

 

[Speevy]

Everyone that makes PSP games might port those over to the PS2 to make some easy money.

I'm all in favor of this. Take every ounce of PSP gaming goodness and put it on the PS2 so I can enjoy it. Same goes for Nintendo with the DS/GBA, though the GB already has a Cube emulator.

 

[Drinky Crow]

$199 Rev versus $99 PS2: discuss.

 

[Speevy]

$199 Rev versus $99 PS2: discuss.

Well, we already saw that scenario play out with the PSOne. The Rev's sales should be interesting in Japan, though.

 

[Fuzzy]

I'm all in favor of this. Take every ounce of PSP gaming goodness and put it on the PS2 so I can enjoy it. Same goes for Nintendo with the DS/GBA, though the GB already has a Cube emulator.

I meant more along the lines of EA with their shitty ports.

 

[Miburou]

I don't think the PS2 will sell at <$149 the same percentage as the PSone did. I don't think the market has expanded that much.

Also, I can see Sony taking the pricing strategy of the PS2 a step further and launching the PS3 at $299 with no price cut for the first 2 years or so.

 

[Ponn]

$199 Rev versus $99 PS2: discuss.

Depends on how big the market really is. PS2 seems to have alot of it's sales in the beginning of its cycle compared to the PSone at the end. Has everyone who will buy a PS2 pretty much already have? Will a price drop have that much of an impact if the market can't expand any further?

 

[mckmas8808]

Depends on how big the market really is. PS2 seems to have alot of it's sales in the beginning of its cycle compared to the PSone at the end. Has everyone who will buy a PS2 pretty much already have? Will a price drop have that much of an impact if the market can't expand any further?

You know people seem to say that every quarter. I obvious that when the PS2 goes to $99 people will buy it as if it's a new console. Sony has proved that with the redesign of the PS2.

Hell the PStwo has already sold more than the xbox and GC.

 

[Speevy]

Combined? Otherwise, it's just sufficient to say "more than Xbox".

 

[DCharlie]

"The industry is shrinking"

in terms of software sales - it is (isn't it?)

Hell the PStwo has already sold more than the xbox and GC.

are we comparing shipped to sold here ? or shipped to shipped?

Just curious - There are 3.71 million PS2s _shipped_ in Japan - we should have the LTD sales, what are they? The PS2 sales here have been on the wane for a while - so i'd be interested in what % of those units have been sold.

 

[Mrbob]

in terms of software sales - it is (isn't it?)

From Sonycowboy's post:

4) PSOne sold 960M software units. PS2 has sold 909M units. The PS2 will be WELL over 1.5B software units by the time it's done.

Doesn't look that way.

I think these numbers go to prove what a beast the Playstation brand has become. For those of you who bring up PSP/DS, you know many people didn't factor in a $249 pricepoint. Besides, PSP is going to sell more in one year than every other Nintendo competitor has done in their lifetime so I would say the Playstation brand does extend beyond consoles.

 

[Speevy]

What are Cube and Xbox total software sales? (or does anyone know)

 

[DCharlie]

"Besides, PSP is going to sell more in one year than every other Nintendo competitor has done in their lifetime so I would say the Playstation brand does extend beyond consoles."

Um... given the competition , that's not surprising!

" would say the Playstation brand does extend beyond consoles."

PSX?

"Doesn't look that way."

overal total doesn't give details of current trends.

 

[sonycowboy]

overal total doesn't give details of current trends.

"Why do you say this, when you know I will kill you for it?"

SW Sales

[b]Period               PSOne            PS2     % up[/b]
Year 1                            35,400,000
Year 2             98,000,000*   121,800,000    60.41%*
Year 3            138,000,000    189,900,000    37.61%
Year 4            194,000,000    222,000,000    14.43%
Year 5            200,000,000    252,000,000    26.00%
Year 6            135,000,000    270,000,000** 100.00%
Year 7             91,000,000
Year 8             61,000,000
Year 9             32,000,000
Year 10            10,000,000
OVERALL TOTALS    959,000,000  1,055,700,000   10.08%
Year 1-5 Totals   765,000,000  1,055,700,000   38.00%
 
* Years 1 & 2 combined
**Forecast

As you can see, the trend is increasing over the PSOne.

I'm surprised you'd make the statement that somehow the trending is negative without knowing any facts.

 

[DCharlie]

"As you can see, the trend is increasing over the PSOne.

I'm surprised you'd make the statement that somehow the trending is negative without knowing any facts."

I got the wrong end of the stick - the software sales are up in total over PS1, but what i was implying was software sales recently are on the decline - well, certainly seems to be the case for Japan, but those overal figures still imply that i'm wrong! ha ha ha

 

[Mrbob]

Um... given the competition , that's not surprising!



PSX?



overal total doesn't give details of current trends.

Not surprising? Then why hasn't any other company challenged Nintendo before like this in the portable arena.

 

[sonycowboy]

THQ has committed to developing for current gen well into 2009

We'll see what Activision & EA have to say next week (earnings releases)

 

[DCharlie]

"Not surprising? Then why hasn't any other company challenged Nintendo before like this in the portable arena."

i meant it's not surprising that Sony outpaced the previous attempts (NGPC, Wonderswan, etc)

Spin : it's a two way thing.

 

[Bigfonzie]

Not surprising? Then why hasn't any other company challenged Nintendo before like this in the portable arena.

Gizmondo!

 

[MrDaravon]

The PS2/PSP combo pack is a very interesting idea actually.

Also, they've obviously set the bar pretty high, seeing if they can suprass this next gen is going to be very interesting.

 

[mckmas8808]

DCharlie the spin artist.

 

[Amir0x]

DCharlie, you have been spinning ridiculously hard these past two weeks. Anything wrong?

 

[sonycowboy]

The PS2/PSP combo pack is a very interesting idea actually.

Also, they've obviously set the bar pretty high, seeing if they can suprass this next gen is going to be very interesting.

THANK YOU!

Anybody else care to comment on the actual thread

What's your PS2 lifetime installed base prediction? Future prospects? Challenges?

 

[SolidSnakex]

DCharlie, you have been spinning ridiculously hard these past two weeks. Anything wrong?

Positive Sony news?

 

[Amir0x]

THANK YOU!

Anybody else care to comment on the actual thread

What's your PS2 lifetime installed base prediction? Future prospects? Challenges?

128M-132M lifetime (probably the low end of this prediction). Future prospects are incredibly strong into 2006 if the price drops to 129/99 (killer titles to lead way ala Final Fantasy XII, etc..).

2007 is the true shift over to next-gen emphasis, but PS2 will still be getting hits from straglers as niche titles and shovelware begin to move in at greater speed. 2008 is total abandonment (in terms of software) for all but the most casual of casuals, families that buy Spongebob Under the Sea Patty burgers for Christmas.

 

[Mrbob]

DCharlie, you have been spinning ridiculously hard these past two weeks. Anything wrong?

+ any postive news

Makes Dcharlie

 

[sonycowboy]

128M-132M lifetime (probably the low end of this prediction). Future prospects are incredibly strong into 2006 if the price drops to 129/99 (killer titles to lead way ala Final Fantasy XII, etc..).

2007 is the true shift over to next-gen emphasis, but PS2 will still be getting hits from straglers as niche titles and shovelware begin to move in at greater speed. 2008 is total abandonment (in terms of software) for all but the most casual of casuals, families that buy Spongebob Under the Sea Patty burgers for Christmas.

I just don't see publishers leaving right when the $129 and $99 price points hit. It's the motherlode for them and marks the single largest adoption spike for every single generation in history. I do worry about only getting multiplatform milking, but I think that greed of how well a exclusive w/ buzz can do on the platform.

The biggest issue is probably that DEVS WANT to move on and the better ones have some say in what they do. So are you just left with middling to lower quality devs?

I think we've still yet to see this generations Tony Hawk, Driver, or Spyro; hits that emerge late in the generation to make a name for themselves.

 

[DCharlie]

"DCharlie, you have been spinning ridiculously hard these past two weeks. Anything wrong?"

there is spin on both sides, but i don't think i'm particularly trying any harder.

 

[Mrbob]

I just don't see publishers leaving right when the $129 and $99 price points hit. It's the motherlode for them and marks the single largest adoption spike for every single generation in history. I do worry about only getting multiplatform milking, but I think that greed of how well a exclusive w/ buzz can do on the platform.

The biggest issue is probably that DEVS WANT to move on and the better ones have some say in what they do. So are you just left with middling to lower quality devs?

I think we've still yet to see this generations Tony Hawk, Driver, or Spyro; hits that emerge late in the generation to make a name for themselves.

We'll probably see one from SCE themselves with that bike racing game, Tourist Trophy or whatever. God of War could also become a bigger franchise by putting God of War 2 on PS2 as well. It is interesting though. A $299 Xbox 360 next generation console will be here in November and a $149 5 year old console is still going to outsell it by a large margin.

 

[Miburou]

there is spin on both sides, but i don't think i'm particularly trying any harder.

You're just misunderstood.

 

[Amir0x]

there is spin on both sides, but i don't think i'm particularly trying any harder.

Obviously, just think the things you're choosing to spin are a bit more...transparent. I mean, it's PS2! You know that shit is red hot and has all the best games. Move on to PS3, man!

 

[Miburou]

It's interesting how software sales on PS2 in NA and Europe have exceeded those of the PS1, while in Japan they're almost 50% down.

 

[DCharlie]

"Obviously, just think the things you're choosing to spin are a bit more...transparent. I mean, it's PS2! You know that shit is red hot and has all the best games. Move on to PS3, man!"

I'm not doubting it has all the best shit, is shit hot, and is the best console ever made. I'm just curious about how a company that can sell 100m units in 5 years isn't turning in way more profit that it is doing.

The thing i questioned here was software sales - for Japan, i was under the impression that ps2 software sales were going down for the last 2 years - but thats from watching sales charts casually.

 

[Amir0x]

I'm not doubting it has all the best shit, is shit hot, and is the best console ever made. I'm just curious about how a company that can sell 100m units in 5 years isn't turning in way more profit that it is doing.

The thing i questioned here was software sales - for Japan, i was under the impression that ps2 software sales were going down for the last 2 years - but thats from watching sales charts casually.

Sony sucks as a business, I wouldn't buy their stock that's for sure.

 

[Link316]

Everyone that makes PSP games might port those over to the PS2 to make some easy money.

PS2 ports of Rockman Rockman + Ghouls & Ghost would be great

 

[DCharlie]

"Sony sucks as a business, I wouldn't buy their stock that's for sure."

weird... i'm starting to consider it.

 

[Amir0x]

weird... i'm starting to consider it.

I'm too much of a pussy, I only buy sure bets with certain yet small returns

 

[jett]

:lol DCharlie, you're one sad bastard.

 

[DCharlie]

"DCharlie, you're one sad bastard."

go on then...
explain why i'm "one sad bastard" ?

 

[Jewbacca]

Well I dont think the industry was nearly as big as it is now. I dont think it really exploded until the 6 months after the PS2 came out then everyone went ass crazy.

 

[Johnny]

Speculation
1) There will be another redesign of the PSTwo that is PSOne cute and even smaller

A black PSone with PS2 guts would OWN, I keep my PSone around just to look at it.

 

[DCharlie]

i'd kill for one too, but wouldn't a small cute semi portable PS2 (with an LCD screen) somewhat cut into the PSP market share?

I'm all for a smaller psone style PS2, don't get me wrong.

 

[mrklaw]

I got the wrong end of the stick - the software sales are up in total over PS1, but what i was implying was software sales recently are on the decline - well, certainly seems to be the case for Japan, but those overal figures still imply that i'm wrong! ha ha ha

I think price of the hardward plays a big part. PS2 has stayed high. Maybe its bled those higher price points dry and it'll need to come down to rejuvenate its sales

Don't get me wrong, its done magnificantly well at those higher price points (19 months at $299 Vs 8 months for PSone?). But it needs a price cut now. Its not the premium product anymore.

This christmas (or shortly afterwards) is the time to bring in the cheap PS2, clear the decks ready for PS3, get the developers doing their licensed/budget stuff.



As for the future? The top developers will move to PS3. The mid-range PS2 codehouses will move to PSP or at least dual PS2/PSP development. Thats where PSP will really start to sing IMO. PS2 will get the budget releases, start to be the 'other' SKU. And it'll make a killing to all the kids at $99/$129

 

[Fafalada]

i'd kill for one too, but wouldn't a small cute semi portable PS2 (with an LCD screen) somewhat cut into the PSP market share?

Nah, PSOne LCD is a gimmick, it would cut into DS market share

 

[mrklaw]

I'm not doubting it has all the best shit, is shit hot, and is the best console ever made. I'm just curious about how a company that can sell 100m units in 5 years isn't turning in way more profit that it is doing.

The thing i questioned here was software sales - for Japan, i was under the impression that ps2 software sales were going down for the last 2 years - but thats from watching sales charts casually.

yeah, but they made huge losses early on, and their machines are bloody expensive to make. (BTW, have they broken out their SCE numbers from the main Sony ones yet? Their other stuff is way more fucked so will bring all the numbers down - kind of the opposite to MS)

This christmas onwards is where they start to hoover up the money on PS2. They still have at least 50% more software to sell, possibly 25%+ more hardware to sell (lower price point needed). And thats all profit.

 

[Nightbringer]

PSone had 2 parts in its life.

The first part from December 1994 to March 1997 Sony sold 10 milions of consoles.

From March 1997 to March 2001 Sony sold 20 milions every year, just the same numbers that PS2 has from march 2001 to today.

In other words, when Sony has sold 10 milions of units of a console it seems that the sales growns up to the 20 milions but at the same time they cannot go beyond this number. This is the reason for a PSP, thanks to the PSP the number of Playstation systems sold every year can go beyond than the barrier of 20 milions of units.

 

[DCharlie]

"This christmas onwards is where they start to hoover up the money on PS2. They still have at least 50% more software to sell, possibly 25%+ more hardware to sell (lower price point needed). And thats all profit"

yup - that + PSP sales rises with more quality software following the first year drudge + trimming of staff + PS3 hype (and launch) at the back end of the year , could bring in big $.

Hence why i'm tempted by the stock if it keeps going down - but it's no good just the game segment getting it right for that. Hmmm... decissions