That's business haha
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM
- Thread starter Hasney
- Start date
- Status
That's business haha
The Friendly Monster
Member
Sorry I came across as angry or confrontational. It wasn't my intention, I definitely don't want to drive away debate.Hey now, no need to get heated, I've been enjoying both sides of the debate, let's keep things chilled! This has been one of the best threads I've been involved in, it's actually made me post on GAF again after a couple of years, so let's keep it civil
I think that the UK will probably find it a lot easier to deal with the Singapores, Taiwans, Chinas, USAs and Australias of the world rather than the EU, which is a bit more complex.
We lack negotiators, true, but it's worth noting we have the 2nd biggest network of diplomats in the world, which can be leveraged to investigate trade possibilities.
It won't be easy but I think the UK has a good shot, especially after kind offers of help from Oz and NZ.
It will be interesting anyway! Let's see what happens, Osborne/Javid have USA, India, South Korea, China and Singapore on their visit list for the next couple of weeks so we should get some signals then.
Hilariously Osborne might keep his job because he's in front of so many big-names in the next few weeks it would be embarrassing to fire him before he gets it done.
Pressure's on George!
I really don't think you answered any of my points though. The UK is both legally forbidden and hasn't the resources to negotiate trade deals. Even if conditions were ideal the deals take years to work out, unless you are desparate and happy with very unfavourable terms.
It seems naïve to suggest that other countries want to "help out". They are out for their own interests and will negotiate to that end.
Lol, it's true though, large companies base their HQ in Ireland to pay lower corporation tax, so might as well lower it in the UK and have companies actually pay it here.
Psychotext
Member
Bootstraps.
I'm pretty sure other countries value their relationship with the EU higher than getting a headstart on any future trade deal with the UK.
Any informal talks before the UK has left the EU will amount to 'Sure, we'd like to trade with you! Ring us up in two years!'
May: "So cabinet, what happened today?"
Javid: "George got smacked on garys and signed freedom of movement with Lebanon, fucks sake"
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Yep. Nobody wants to be that arsehole.
Siemens and other major corporations have huge factories and business units in the UK. They are not going to let them rot just because things are uncertain at the moment. They will continue to invest in them, but in reduced volumes and mostly around the UK market. What we are going to see is a progressive decrease in size and investment in those units as their export capacity gets reduced.
The car industry provides a good situation. Nissan will continue to invest in Sunderland since right now it makes no business sense to move the factory elsewhere, but models with reduced sales or endangered profits may be transferred elsewhere, which will be translated in reduced investment down the line, maybe in one or two years.
That is called reaganomics. It is virtually a guarantee that cutting corporate taxes will reduce government revenues. Considering the uk is already spending way more money than it takes in, the situation could get dire.
like every contract does.that is the purpose of a contract.
Well, that applies also for the companies. Not sure how happy London based pan-european services company (like er...banks?) would be to pay "only" 15% if their revenue is lowered to abysmal levels because they cannot compete on their main market.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
It's called a Union, there's a binding contract and there are rules.
I'm perpetually shocked by how many people believe that the UK is entitled to do as it pleases and that the EU should just accept it because.
Bananajama
Banned
Not really
We have contracts that span over decades exclusivity with some.
In the background they're free to negotiate with other suppliers for new agreements at the end of that term. We're aware of this and keep them sweet
Vice versa have the same from suppliers to us.
Employment agreement has the same for me.
I'm free to go looking for other employment.
Negotiating my terms.
Just I'll be put on a garden leave period after notifying current employer
Garden leave = A50
ClosingADoor
Member
Yes, it is an Union. So you can't have member states going around doing their own policy in the areas that you have agreed about to do a joined policy. Certainly not when there is free movement of goods and those negotiations are about what to get into your country, since that means it can get into other countries too.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Comparing employment agreements with international trade and state unions is the same logical trap as comparing familiar economies with state ones.
Bananajama
Banned
Wasn't just employment in that but trade
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Please refer to ClosingADoor's post.
CyclopsRock
Member
It is?
Bananajama
Banned
We're talking negotiating trade for when A50 has gone through its notice period (2 years) then being subject to WTO rules.
"Technically" speaking
We won't agree crap for two years with any country.
But I see no harm in discussing trade deals during this time as you'll be subject to EU trade rules during this notice period.
The rules to say we can't I'm saying are utter tosh.
Same as the EU saying post Brexit vote they intend to make the EU bureaucracy even more complicated to prevent/discourage any other countries leaving.
As I said - glad to be getting out of Federal Europe
An English friend just posted on Facebook how they are tired of the fear and the political news and how the markets have bounced back and the pound is rallying.
Admittedly I am a pessimist but all I keep thinking is, it hasn't even started yet. It's going to be shit show of shittery for all sides the next couple of years, isn't it?
Admittedly I am a pessimist but all I keep thinking is, it hasn't even started yet. It's going to be shit show of shittery for all sides the next couple of years, isn't it?
Bananajama
Banned
*deleted - not relevant
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
I don't think there's going to be widespread industrial damage until a couple of years, when companies have had time to readdress growth and export projections and act in consequence. Investment will probably remain as they are for a while, maybe with some adjustements.
European based R&D is going to take a massive hit, though.
ClosingADoor
Member
I don't know what this Federal Europe is. I take it you are talking about the European Union...
The UK has not even invoked article 50, so any talking about trade deals is strictly forbidden and should not be done. You can't have countries going around trying to get all kind of agreements when it is not even certain they are leaving.
Until you are gone you are part of the EU, so you have a joined policy regarding trade agreements. Having countries around doing otherwise undermines the Union and all the other member states that do not want to leave.
Bananajama
Banned
Think we crossed wires then
Can negotiate during A50.
Thought it was said earlier you couldn't!
All good ^-^
*still glad I voted leave though; I'm against the political aims of Europe but hoping we can still maintain free movement etc etc.
ClosingADoor
Member
I don't think you can in both.
Certainly you can't before you invoke Article 50. That is only logical, since you are not leaving then yet.
After that you need to figure out your future relation with the EU. The UK wants access to the single market. While those negotiations are ongoing, you can't really go around offering deals to other countries, since those would influence the single market also.
So it would go like this:
1) Invoke Article 50
2) Figure out future relation with EU
3) Talk with other countries about that trade relation, which will be majorly influenced by 2)
Yeah no. The UK might not have been able to do individual trade deals but with the EU attached all trade deals signed were guaranteed much better conditions. Look forward to getting worse trade deals with the rest of the world once the negotiation starts. The US and China have large businesses in Europe but the UK market on it's own is nowhere as significant as mainland Europe.
Hey now, no need to get heated, I've been enjoying both sides of the debate, let's keep things chilled! This has been one of the best threads I've been involved in, it's actually made me post on GAF again after a couple of years, so let's keep it civil
I think that the UK will probably find it a lot easier to deal with the Singapores, Taiwans, Chinas, USAs and Australias of the world rather than the EU, which is a bit more complex.
We lack negotiators, true, but it's worth noting we have the 2nd biggest network of diplomats in the world, which can be leveraged to investigate trade possibilities.
It won't be easy but I think the UK has a good shot, especially after kind offers of help from Oz and NZ.
It will be interesting anyway! Let's see what happens, Osborne/Javid have USA, India, South Korea, China and Singapore on their visit list for the next couple of weeks so we should get some signals then.
Hilariously Osborne might keep his job because he's in front of so many big-names in the next few weeks it would be embarrassing to fire him before he gets it done.
Pressure's on George!
Correct motorcycle right there. Most people refuse to see this and the EU being vindictive or trying to throw a wrench in the UKs way might just backfire triggering certain countries to exit as well. All those screaming the EU should be strict, be hardass, kick the UK out etc are missing the point. Any move the EU makes that could be scene as some people in Brussels behaving like dictators won't go down well. Whether some of you like it or not the UK still has friends in a lot of countries and everyone will like to see things solved in a way that benefits the UK and EU. There won't be any silly things like trade wars etc. That's something we do with China for selling fake BMW's and Audi's
Succinct Verbosity
Member
So will we see Gove in or out? The guy is politically toxic, but he's the only leaver that stuck around.
Bananajama
Banned
Assuming you've got good trade negotiators though.
You can factor in potential trade options for #3 dependent on #2
While not formally being able to agree anything you can make plans and preparation and shave time off post agreement of #2
shinra-bansho
Member
The political aims of the EU are peace through unity. I'm not sure why one would be against peace.
Also, no country is going to enter anything resembling real negotiations with the UK while it's still extracting itself. And they're trying to finalise agreements with the 27 country block that's economically far more important.
Also, no country is going to enter anything resembling real negotiations with the UK while it's still extracting itself. And they're trying to finalise agreements with the 27 country block that's economically far more important.
ClosingADoor
Member
Stuff will be talked about behind closed doors anyway, I agree with that. But you can't have real talks going. These are not quick things to figure out, so any little chance with the UK-EU relation will have large impacts. It would be a waste of time and effort then to already try and broker deals with other countries while it is unsure what will actually happen.
Bananajama
Banned
Oh yeah - 100% agree.
I'm expecting at least 3 years post A50 of WTO rules for the UK.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Correct motorcycle right there. Most people refuse to see this and the EU being vindictive or trying to throw a wrench in the UKs way might just backfire triggering certain countries to exit as well. All those screaming the EU should be strict, be hardass, kick the UK out etc are missing the point. Any move the EU makes that could be scene as some people in Brussels behaving like dictators won't go down well. Whether some of you like it or not the UK still has friends in a lot of countries and everyone will like to see things solved in a way that benefits the UK and EU. There won't be any silly things like trade wars etc. That's something we do with China for selling fake BMW's and Audi's
Not being hard with the UK or conceding a remotely favourable deal will mean that there will be no case for many states to remain in the EU, so while there's no reason for wanton cruelty, it's in the EU's best interest to be as strict as possible.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Is this really where we've got to? Just posting blithe non-sequiturs that imply that Leavers are "against peace"?
Strict with what? There will be negotiations.
This posted already?
https://www.theguardian.com/educati...projects-because-of-post-brexit-funding-fears
TheGuardian said:
UK can't legally negotiate any kind of trade agreements as a separate country while A50 is triggered but the exit not finalised because it still benefit from the access to the single market and every advantage of being an EU member (except voting right) until the exit is finalised.
It's not about being vindictive. It's about sticking to the rules applied to all the other members of EU. Also it's about negotiating in the interest of the EU members.
Correct motorcycle right there. Most people refuse to see this and the EU being vindictive or trying to throw a wrench in the UKs way might just backfire triggering certain countries to exit as well. All those screaming the EU should be strict, be hardass, kick the UK out etc are missing the point. Any move the EU makes that could be scene as some people in Brussels behaving like dictators won't go down well. Whether some of you like it or not the UK still has friends in a lot of countries and everyone will like to see things solved in a way that benefits the UK and EU. There won't be any silly things like trade wars etc. That's something we do with China for selling fake BMW's and Audi's
It's not about being vindictive. It's about sticking to the rules applied to all the other members of EU. Also it's about negotiating in the interest of the EU members.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Showing no kindness and making sure that the UK walks out with the most one-sided deal it can get without causing severe damage to the EU's economy.
The UK getting out of the EU on favourable terms would be much more dangerous to the Union than any vaunted image of a "dictatorial" EU going after the UK. It could literally shatter it. Large countries like Italy or Spain could take their ball and then all hell would break loose.
I don't expect needless cruelty, but I fully expect a comparatively bad deal for the UK out of necessity.
shinra-bansho
Member
I'm not really sure how that was blithe.
And there's nothing particularly "strict" or "dictatorial" about this anyway. The UK will get what anyone else would get. There seems to be this strange view that if the UK doesn't get everything it wants and special treatment, the EU is somehow being vindictive.
The two year period is actually designed to give the leaving country the time to do various things like legislate all the parts of UK law which are entangled with EU law, or that are absent because of the overarching European framework.
I'm really not sure why it bears so much repeating. There will be "negotiations" in so much as the UK may be presented with options that allow continued access to the single market, with accompanying requirements. There are few options that would allow this.
And there's nothing particularly "strict" or "dictatorial" about this anyway. The UK will get what anyone else would get. There seems to be this strange view that if the UK doesn't get everything it wants and special treatment, the EU is somehow being vindictive.
The two year period is actually designed to give the leaving country the time to do various things like legislate all the parts of UK law which are entangled with EU law, or that are absent because of the overarching European framework.
This is not going happen. At the end of the day, it is not the the EU that trades with the UK, its the individual countries and they will lookout for whats best for them same as the UK.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
This is not how the Union works. Concessions are routinely made and accepted for the better good of the EU.
Furthermore, some countries impacted by Brexit could also benefit from it. The UK is a huge market for the Spanish exports and Brexit is going to cost us dearly, but Spain could receive a significant portion of its automotive industry along Eastern Europe (manufacturing) and Germany (R&D, design) due to the UK's loss of investment and competitiveness. As a matter of fact, I fully expect Spain to fight with tooth and nails for any kind of deal that results in some manufacturing transfer down the line. Fucking over Gibraltar would be just the icing on the cake if a conservative sits at the government by then.
Alx
Member
That's unfortunate, but not too surprising. The thing is the current uncertainty makes it worse than it should be. The minimum duration of a major research project is 3 years (most universities align it to the duration of a doctorate). If universities could be confident that UK would still be in EU for that duration (and with the 2 years deadline of article 50 + extensions, it's certainly possible), they may still validate the current projects.
Literally noone is "screaming" this. EU has significantly more leverage than us, so we'll get the bum end of the deal. Any nonsense about "dictators in Brussels" or "trade wars" is straight from Facebook meme garbage.Correct motorcycle right there. Most people refuse to see this and the EU being vindictive or trying to throw a wrench in the UKs way might just backfire triggering certain countries to exit as well. All those screaming the EU should be strict, be hardass, kick the UK out etc are missing the point. Any move the EU makes that could be scene as some people in Brussels behaving like dictators won't go down well. Whether some of you like it or not the UK still has friends in a lot of countries and everyone will like to see things solved in a way that benefits the UK and EU. There won't be any silly things like trade wars etc. That's something we do with China for selling fake BMW's and Audi's
The idea that other countries would see the UK get a bad deal and then leave the EU themselves in some bizarre show of solidarity (despite the fact we just had a vote to say "fuck you" to all of them) is even more ridiculous.
More Fun To Compute
Member
That's not the idealistic dream of how some people want it to work but it's very much the reality that the strongest member states all very aggressively pursue their own national interest.
What's best for them is the ongoing stability of the EU project (after all that's why most of them are in it) which would shatter if the UK gets a sweet deal.
Anyway any EEA deal must be approved by every single EU, EEA and EFTA member or it's off the table. A number of them barely trade with the UK so there's no real self interest issues there.
shinra-bansho
Member
I'm not even sure how different country priorities exactly that helps the UK to begin with.
Entry to the EEA will require agreement of all parties.
The negotiation of an FTA will require agreement of all 27 members.
How does each having their own interests in mind somehow benefit the UK towards magically gaining everything it wants?
France wants the City's service sectors. Spain wants its carmakers and to be the seat of the EMA. Poland isn't going to agree to measures specifically aimed at its people's free movement. Different countries with their RW Xenophobe parties don't want to provide them any impetus.
So, German carmakers?
Entry to the EEA will require agreement of all parties.
The negotiation of an FTA will require agreement of all 27 members.
How does each having their own interests in mind somehow benefit the UK towards magically gaining everything it wants?
France wants the City's service sectors. Spain wants its carmakers and to be the seat of the EMA. Poland isn't going to agree to measures specifically aimed at its people's free movement. Different countries with their RW Xenophobe parties don't want to provide them any impetus.
So, German carmakers?
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked