Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
You know, building some extra cars at home could really help with that refugee problem...
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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM
- Thread starter Hasney
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You know, building some extra cars at home could really help with that refugee problem...
Are you telling me we don't have enough people to negotiate and we're going to have immigrants do it for us? I ask, can we trust them? It's no secret espionage still exists and counties may send us people to get us a bad deal.
We have plenty of English lads who are more than willing. My mate Greg works at the local chippy, and gets right bargains when he goes to car boot sales.
British jobs for British people!
We have plenty of English lads who are more than willing. My mate Greg works at the local chippy, and gets right bargains when he goes to car boot sales.
British jobs for British people!
Now I feel bad for hoping it never is, but challenge accepted.
How complete must the arrangements be at the end of the two year post-art50 time frame? I mean, there is a provision that the exiting country can get kicked out without any sort of deal once the time is up "and no agreement has been reached", effectively dropping it to below WTO status.
Worst case fantasy scenario, all we need is an "EU Farrage" of sorts that just shows up to meetings to stir shit up, thus compromising one single key contract negotiation. Two years are over in the blink of an eye in these kind of matters. I doubt UK will be able to achieve an extension to the time limit (which I already find quite harsh given the sheer amount of back-and-forth and legal expertise required). And don't tell me an "EU Farrage" couldn't possibly exist.
Related: How are negotiators chosen? Can they be voted out of negotiations unilaterally?
Worst case fantasy scenario, all we need is an "EU Farrage" of sorts that just shows up to meetings to stir shit up, thus compromising one single key contract negotiation. Two years are over in the blink of an eye in these kind of matters. I doubt UK will be able to achieve an extension to the time limit (which I already find quite harsh given the sheer amount of back-and-forth and legal expertise required). And don't tell me an "EU Farrage" couldn't possibly exist.
Related: How are negotiators chosen? Can they be voted out of negotiations unilaterally?
Moments hunter
Neo Member
All this "German carmakers" is nonsense. Yes, carmakers are very influential but they do not create actual policies.
The good example is Volkswagen-gate. I am in the industry and I experienced how harshly EU responded during that time - investigating all carmakers, changing emissions measurements methods to be more precise. And believe me, carmakers tried to played their card:"Hey, EU, you know...we are big employers..wink...wink...This is not good for us." But EU simply responded with:"Health is more important - we will do what we want, no what you want."
My point is that lobby groups, even though you wish them to be influential, are not so much in the power when real policy making is in place.
The good example is Volkswagen-gate. I am in the industry and I experienced how harshly EU responded during that time - investigating all carmakers, changing emissions measurements methods to be more precise. And believe me, carmakers tried to played their card:"Hey, EU, you know...we are big employers..wink...wink...This is not good for us." But EU simply responded with:"Health is more important - we will do what we want, no what you want."
My point is that lobby groups, even though you wish them to be influential, are not so much in the power when real policy making is in place.
I honestly don't know how you can look objectively at the output of the EU compared to our own UK and not see the EU as vastly superior as a vehicle for delivering utility to citizens...
More Fun To Compute
Member
There will perhaps be winners and losers in Europe as they fight amongst themselves to get the most benefit from this event. I don't really have that much faith in the wisdom of European leaders to act together in a way that benefits the whole but their policies can throw up their own strange results. But rather than just wondering if the government negotiators will get what they want people should be more aware of how much of an insane global risk beggar thy neighbour policies present. How the possibility of de-globalisation and the threat of a protectionist USA or other factors could have catastrophic outcomes worse than any detail in the trade agreements between the UK and the EU. Really the question should be is how scared should the relatively small nation states in Europe be to play games that risk destabilising the global economy.
The Friendly Monster
Member
So now the UK's leverage is the threat of destabilizing the world economy? Brilliant tactics.
An extension of the 2-year period must be agreed on unanimously by all member states. And there is no "kicking out" necessary, it is just the result of Article 50 and not reaching an agreement within the two year timeframe.
More Fun To Compute
Member
Not really. The world economy is destabilized already perhaps in a more precarious place now and the referendum now has maybe already done the job of further destabilizing it. The issue in front of us is are the senior political powers of the world seriously interesting in putting national issues to the side to stabilise and maintain the system? Myself I don't think that they are up to the job. The leadership looks bad, no better in the EU than anywhere else, in a way worse.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Close to. I mean, the UK already has lower corporate tax rate than a lot of countries. Japan has a 38% corporate tax rate, for example, so why hasn't Nintendo moved to London? Because Japan is where the staff and infrastructure are. Companies have many, many reasons for the precise location of their headquarters, and corporate tax rate is only a small component. So large changes in corporation tax only prompt small changes in corporate location.
Consider my small economy where all the firms together make £1000 and I tax at 10%. I decide to reduce my tax rate to 9% to get some of the firms in your economy to leave, because frankly Cyclops I'm amazed you had a personal economy in the first place. For my decision to bring a net revenue increase, I need 0.09*(1000+F) > 0.1*1000, which solves for 112 (rounded up from 111.11), which is a 12% increase in total firm value headquartered in my economy to make up for a 10% tax reduction. That's a rather high rate of elasticity that you'd almost never see in real life.
There are obviously diminishing returns to this - a reduction from 25% to 24% tax hurts revenue less than 10% to 9%, because 1% from 25% is a smaller proportion than 1% from 10%. But in general, reducing corporation tax is an extraordinarily inefficient way to increase revenue, if it works at all. It's a nice talking point that has some credence because people who only studied a first year course of economics deal with perfectly competitive frictionless markets, which means firms don't have to worry about infrastructure or staff. In such a world, the country with the lowest tax rate would have *all* the companies. But we don't live in that world.
ultratruman
Banned
I know a researcher in my physics department who was asked to remove his name from an EU funded paper.
The Friendly Monster
Member
My understanding is that the two years aren't to negotiate a free trade deal post breakup, but to disentangle the the ties between the union and the exiting country.
Of course the UK will be heavily damaged without free trade with Europe, putting the ball very much in the EU negotiators' court.
It seems absolutely nuts to me. 28 countries who've been at war more often than not, yet managing to come together in a union and actually get shit done.
Oh, but it's not perfect. So lets just fuck it all off then?
Thats not what he said. The EU already has a fragile economy since 2008 and never really recovered, before Greece, Ireland and Portugal had to be bailed out too.
The Friendly Monster
Member
So this sets up the narrative that the UK not getting a good deal is incompetence by the EU and them not acting in the best interest of the world. It just gets better!
ultratruman
Banned
Another "Do you REAAAALLY BELIEEEVE?'-ism exploded.
Royal_Phalanx
Member
Plenty of things wrong with the EU as a political union, but the good outweighs the bad, so I am staunchly remain. Freedom of movement and the economic union have been beneficial to the young people in our country.
Was at a meal with a lot of family members and there's a clear generational divide (old vs young) between Leavers and Remainers. Ironically the Leave supporters are all immigrants, the younger people who are all Remain are all citizens. Some of my family members have been told to 'go back to your own country' to their face. Brexit is a fantasy and not supported by the experts.
Was at a meal with a lot of family members and there's a clear generational divide (old vs young) between Leavers and Remainers. Ironically the Leave supporters are all immigrants, the younger people who are all Remain are all citizens. Some of my family members have been told to 'go back to your own country' to their face. Brexit is a fantasy and not supported by the experts.
To handle the ultimate beggar thy neighbour the UK has just delivered to the EU, the EU should club together, drop it's pants and risk shattering it's free market union to minimise the damage the UK has caused.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Individual countries don't care very much about the UK, though. Any deal has to be approved by all 28 EU members and all 3 EFTA members. Germany likes the deal? Doesn't matter if Poland hates it. So the deal we get is not even the deal that the EU (as a collective) wants, we'll get the deal that the most strongly opposed member of the EU wants. A country like, say, Lithuania barely trades with us, but has a huge part of its population in the UK (about 4% of all Lithuanians live in the UK), will oppose anything that does not have freedom of movement, because it does not care that German car manufacturers need access to the UK, because Lithuanian car manufacturers don't. A country like Slovenia, which has next to nothing to do with the UK at all, will veto anything that doesn't ensure European stability, because that is what most benefits Slovenia.
If we want access to the single market, we will have to accept freedom of movement. That's just the facts of the matter. If we don't accept that, we will get a terrible deal. Your choice.
If we want access to the single market, we will have to accept freedom of movement. That's just the facts of the matter. If we don't accept that, we will get a terrible deal. Your choice.
The Friendly Monster
Member
Same now as at any time, it could go up, it could go down. If you need the Euros and don't want the risk, buy now.
I personally wouldn't carry huge amounts of cash around and would just use the cash machines wherever you are staying.
Palculator
Unconfirmed Member
Well, that's disgusting. I can understand seeing UK collaborations for future projects as less appealing (something my workplace actually does) but scrubbing their name off existing projects? Really?
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Depends. I'd wait til Wednesday at least to see how the markets react to May's first speech as Prime Minister.
ThoughtsOfSpeaking
Banned
No economist, but don't take your chances mate.
Psychotext
Member
That's fucking disgusting.
Linkstrikesback
Member
Hold on. Removed from a grant application or removed from a paper of work that has already been completed?
Because the latter would be very worrying.
ultratruman
Banned
https://www.theguardian.com/educati...of-post-brexit-funding-fears?CMP=share_btn_tw
Believe it, it's only going to get worse. This is a catastrophe for British science.
I like how any optimist scenario for UK trade agreement implies either that the people from EU are stupid ("we will negotiate in secret all the trade agreements before exit, maybe even before triggering article 50") or masochist ("they will offer us the best deal because we're BRITAIN!" or "they will fight among themselves and we end up with all the best deals somehow").
Also if you don't see the benefit of EU, imagine 28 countries now negotiating trade agreement between them and stabbing each other in the back as much as possible.
Also if you don't see the benefit of EU, imagine 28 countries now negotiating trade agreement between them and stabbing each other in the back as much as possible.
ultratruman
Banned
People are being xropped from active research, in the case of my instructor; I believe nearly completed after a year of work. Scotland never voted for this. I'm voting Yes in indyref 2.
Royal_Phalanx
Member
Are countries lining up to do trade deals with the UK? They don't seem to be. The benefit of being in a large bloc for trading with the world is apparent.
Yep, it has happened to me as well.
More Fun To Compute
Member
At least that narrative would be based on prosperity and peace rather than just wanting to appear like tough guys or plutocrats.
The Friendly Monster
Member
Even if they were, it would be because they would be in a very strong position to negotiate with a desparate UK.
I'm saying that your narrative is bullshit. It's clearly not in the EU's position to give special lenience to the UK, so please don't try and dress it up as anything else.
More Fun To Compute
Member
I'm all about leniency especially when the stakes are so high.
blazeuk
Member
Behind the scenes it's very likely a lot of countries are looking at doing deals, the problem is we're in this weird phase of still being in the EU so not much can really be accomplished in terms deals being formally discussed. Very few countries are going to ignore such a big market, it's more of a question of how good (or bad) will the trade deals be now we're not part of a larger bloc.
The Friendly Monster
Member
Of course you are, it would be in the UK's interest. But don't pretend that it's in the EU's interest too, and they are the ones who hold the cards.
The way the UK acts to the rest of the world is appalling. People should be asking for forgiveness not demanding special treatment.
Royal_Phalanx
Member
If the UK wanted leniency it would keep the status quo and stay in the EU. Leaving the EU has really soured opinion on the UK so there is no appetite to give you everything you want with all the single market access as part of the EEA and none of the free movement.
More Fun To Compute
Member
I was for leniency for the Greek people when it would have been against the interests of the UK. People across the world behave appallingly only the very worst always have to blame other nations instead of looking at the failings of their own corrupt leaders.
The Friendly Monster
Member
Preach!
What do you understand by leniency for Greek people?
Edit: do you understand that there is more at play here than just UK well being? Like the whole EU existence and the huge impact its disappearance would have on everybody on the continent?
More Fun To Compute
Member
Debt cancellation.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Sorry, that was probably the wrong word (just looked it up). Maybe I was thinking of glib?
Either way, I think it's poor form. The EU can clearly state its objectives to be whatever it wants. This whole "how can you be against peace?" thing is rubbish.
You seem to like large scale disastrous scenarios. Do you enjoy seeing the world burning?
Countries will certainly be interested in free trade deals with the UK...
- China would love to sell us cut-price steel, and remove all barriers on selling us low cost goods and products that violate IP/copyright etc.
- India probably have their own list of dodgy things that they'd love to sell/dump on the UK market.
- the US would probably offer TTIP as-is, although the drafts are probably all based on EU law...
- Canada would offer CETA.
etc.
So it's not that countries don't want to sign free trade deals exactly. [and, obviously, some of these may be totally incompatible with our obligations for other deals]
The PM in Australia has just put together a task force to examine the opportunities and challenges Brexit provides.
The idea that the Commonwealth will at all be hostile or reluctant to negotiate trade deals with the UK is somewhat bizarre, I'm pretty sure that the Commonwealth these days accounts for a greater share of world GDP than the EU. Most Commonwealth countries are quite compatible with the UK (for obvious reasons).
The idea that the Commonwealth will at all be hostile or reluctant to negotiate trade deals with the UK is somewhat bizarre, I'm pretty sure that the Commonwealth these days accounts for a greater share of world GDP than the EU. Most Commonwealth countries are quite compatible with the UK (for obvious reasons).
More Fun To Compute
Member
That would be a way to address a disastrous situation in a realistic way not the disastrous situation itself.
No, that would be exactly like in this case ignoring the long term impact and the domino effect.
shinra-bansho
Member
It wasn't non-sequitur. It was simply pointing out the fundamental underlying purpose of the EU. Why it was founded. In response to someone saying they were against its political aim and a smattering of others talking about being against the core ideals of the EU throughout the threads. They may not be aware of what the core principle actually is. Maintaining peace.
EU 19% of World GDP (although that includes the UK and not the EEA and EFTA countries), Commonwealth (including UK) 16%
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