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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM

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MUnited83

For you.
It moves pretty fast these days!

But yeah I'm not sure what to say anyway. Everything seems fine so far. That "dead cat bounce" everyone was so sure about turned out to be more of a return to the norm. Markets and sterling heading in the right direction and new government that seems to be keen with getting on with things. If you looked at Gaf you'd think the sky was falling in, but really thingsarelookingprettygood.gif
Things are looking pretty good? Lmao. Its stable now because no one had the guts to actually invoke article 50 yet.
 

Meadows

Banned
Yeah. The UK as a global power has been done for years. Brexit isn't the cause, it's what will finally make that apparent.

England especially, is as relevant to modern civilisation as Greece and Italy is.

Even less so, because at least Greece and Italy have a tourism industry that isn't mostly localised to their capital cities. :p

That's some excellent discourse you have there.

- London is one of only two Alpha ++ rated cities in the world (NYC is the other)
- The UK is the 5th (or 6th) largest economy in the world
- The UK is the 2nd largest contributor of aid in the world
- The UK is one of only nine nuclear powers
- The UK is a permanent member of the UN Security Council
- The UK has the 2nd largest diplomatic network in the world
 

Maledict

Member
Things are looking pretty good? Lmao. Its stable now because no one had the guts to actually invoke article 50 yet.

It's also ignoring all the indicators that are saying 'bad things are coming'. The massive plummets in business confidence and investment intentions. The reduction in the number of jobs being advertised. All the longer term data which points to bad stuff just being stored up whilst the world waits to see what happens.
 

cabot

Member
David Davis is quite the optimist:

I expect the new Prime Minister to trigger a round of global trade deals with all our most favoured partners - and the negotiation of most within between 12 and 24 months.

Within two years, before the negotiation with the EU is likely to be complete, we can negotiate a free trade area massively larger than the EU.

Deals with the US and China alone will give us a trade area almost twice the size of the EU - and of course, we will also be seeking deals with many others.

This will provide massive markets for our exports and cut costs for our manufacturing industries.

Cool see you in two years bruv.
 

PJV3

Member
Business is in a good position for now, years away from Brexit and the UK government about to throw lots of money around.

I still don't understand why people on either side of the argument are following them for what's happening almost 3 years away.
 

suedester

Banned
That's some excellent discourse you have there.

- London is one of only two Alpha ++ rated cities in the world (NYC is the other)
- The UK is the 5th (or 6th) largest economy in the world
- The UK is the 2nd largest contributor of aid in the world
- The UK is one of only nine nuclear powers
- The UK is a permanent member of the UN Security Council
- The UK has the 2nd largest diplomatic network in the world

No, the UK is irrelevant. Judging from the mood of this thread certain posters probably think we'll be the second largest beneficiary of aid a few years after leaving the EU.
 
David Davis is quite the optimist:
Within two years, before the negotiation with the EU is likely to be complete, we can negotiate a free trade area massively larger than the EU.

Deals with the US and China alone will give us a trade area almost twice the size of the EU - and of course, we will also be seeking deals with many others.

This will provide massive markets for our exports and cut costs for our manufacturing industries..

I wonder what this British better than the EU - EU will be called. BREU? CommonwEUlth?
 

cabot

Member
Hmm, so what he says is that the focus is on finding other markets (for both export and suppliers) so I guess EEA is off the table from his point of view, right?

That's the direct quote, The Guardian has it that he thinks we'll get tariff free access to the single market with limits on immigration because it would be 'irrational' if we didn't.
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
That's the direct quote, The Guardian has it that he thinks we'll get tariff free access to the single market with limits on immigration because it would be 'irrational' if we didn't.

UK wouldn't need to find other similar or bigger markets within 2 years (as unrealistic as this is I work with this assumption) if it would keep the single market access.
 

Jasup

Member
We live in a highly interconnected global economy, and the UK is a large economy as part of that. So sure, the UK is relevant. As is Canada. Or Australia. Or Mexico.

But we live in a world where the powers that be are the US and China. And there are rising giants in countries like India. And large economic blocs with significant combined influence... like the EU.

I'd like to add English as a global language bit in here. News and discussion from Anglosphere get more exposure internationally by default. This is also a reason why English language press dominates the newsstream.
 
Boris is having a rough first day at work.

13700085_941333612644789_2677308490432906429_n.jpg
 
David Davis is quite the optimist:



Cool see you in two years bruv.

With what leverage? The US and China will not give them favorable terms because UK and are more interested, as Obama has said, to conclude a trade deal with a larger economic bloc.

This is delusional.


Boris Johnson in charge of MI6. Wow.
 

jelly

Member
There's also telling everyone your negotiating strategy while you're scrambling to get started.

Davis "Hello, this is Davis Davis"

EU "No deal"

Davis "Hi, we would like access to the single market"

EU "Great, you know the terms..."

Davis "Yes, all the good things and no free movement, thank you"

EU "No deal"

Davis "Pretty please"

EU "No deal"
 

cabot

Member
With a name like David Davis, we've essentially lost the negotiations already.

If it was Jamie James though, nailed it we would have.
 

PJV3

Member
Davis "Hello, this is Davis Davis"

EU "No deal"

Davis "Hi, we would like access to the single market"

EU "Great, you know the terms..."

Davis "Yes, all the good things and no free movement, thank you"

EU "No deal"


Davis "Pretty please"

EU "No deal"


Davis "we will destroy your cheese and car industry"

EU "lol"
 

Meadows

Banned
I edited before you posted but come on, this thread is so negative. I know the British love to look down on themselves but this is taking it to the next level.

I have to admit I agree. I know that those who think the UK has made the wrong choice here have very good points (I voted Remain), but the doom-mongering is getting a bit tiresome.

The worst case scenario isn't that we turn into Somalia, it's that we lose some level of relevance on the world stage and face low growth for 2-5 years.

It isn't the end of the world, indeed some might say (I wouldn't) that it is a worthwhile price to pay for sovereignty.
 

TheChaos0

Member
David Davis is quite the optimist:



Cool see you in two years bruv.

Davis is probably one of the worst people for this job. Does he think we still have the British Empire? There's deluded and there's absolutely bonkers. I mean, yes, this is the best case scenario. I would love this to happen but there's no chance we can do all that in 2 years. You only have to look at other countries and see how long it took them to secure a trade deal. Not to mention we don't have any negotiators...
 
I have to admit I agree. I know that those who think the UK has made the wrong choice here have very good points (I voted Remain), but the doom-mongering is getting a bit tiresome.

The worst case scenario isn't that we turn into Somalia, it's that we lose some level of relevance on the world stage and face low growth for 2-5 years.

It isn't the end of the world, indeed some might say (I wouldn't) that it is a worthwhile price to pay for sovereignty.

For sure it's not the end of the world, economically.

But what really hurts is that a large reason people decided to shoot the country in the foot was to get rid of people like me. If the argument had just been some pretentious and eccentric people shouting "sovereignty" against the entire economic, political, and scientific establishment and they came out on top, fair enough, I would still have been annoyed but could have laughed it off. The incredibly ugly views which were expressed by official Leave campaigns and then embraced by the general public by voting for their side have made me feel not welcome in a country I used to call home. If the decent people who genuinely just wanted "sovereignty" think that's also a worthwhile price to pay then I'm afraid I don't want anything to do with them any more either.
 

SKINNER!

Banned
Good Morning!

Just saw this:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/14/andrea-leadsom-repeal-fox-hunting-ban-climate-change



BonyKindAmethystsunbird-size_restricted.gif


I'd have said we all dodged a bullet, but she is still in cabinet.


See, this is something that I just cannot understand about politicians in this country. Having a fucking person being appointed as energy minister and then coming up with a fucking year 1 schoolkid question like that. It's just fucking ridiculous. It would be like if you gave some random guy (or the guy you shared a sandbox with when you were little) on the street a job as a heart surgeon and he comes into the operation room on his first day, points at the patient's arse, grabs a bread knife and says "Is this the way to get the heart?" Just..unbelievable. Same goes for Jeremy Cunt being appointed Health secretary when he's a huge fan of homeopathy. This whole "I'll just give my incompetent pals a random job in parliament just to make them feel important." thing is just so dumb.

Gove must've been right when he said that we're all fed up with listening to experts because clearly they don't bother to appoint any in Westminster.
 
Davis "Hello, this is Davis Davis"

EU "No deal"

Davis "Hi, we would like access to the single market"

EU "Great, you know the terms..."

Davis "Yes, all the good things and no free movement, thank you"

EU "No deal"

Davis "Pretty please"

EU "No deal"

lol, Future UK>EU trade involves the UK cold calling the EU.

EU (answers phone) "Hello"
UK "Hi can I speak to your chief negotiator?"
EU "Er, yes, Erm, Who is this?"
UK "Yeah, I'm calling about exciting new opportunities we have exclusively for your citizens, I just need to speak to your chief negotiator"
EU "Er, Right, Who did you say you are again"
UK "We're a local Island nation with exciting new opportunities..."
EU "I got that, who are you, are you crank calling me?"
UK "No, No, we're a legit new opp..."
EU "ok, I'm hanging up now"
 

Arksy

Member
lol, Future UK>EU trade involves the UK cold calling the EU.

EU (answers phone) "Hello"
UK "Hi can I speak to your chief negotiator?"
EU "Er, yes, Erm, Who is this?"
UK "Yeah, I'm calling about exciting new opportunities we have exclusively for your citizens, I just need to speak to your chief negotiator"
EU "Er, Right, Who did you say you are again"
UK "We're a local Island nation with exciting new opportunities..."
EU "I got that, who are you, are you crank calling me?"
UK "No, No, we're a legit new opp..."
EU "ok, I'm hanging up now"

ICELAND? I've had enough of your IN EU-OUT OF EU nonsense!!
 

suedester

Banned
Davis is probably one of the worst people for this job. Does he think we still have the British Empire? There's deluded and there's absolutely bonkers. I mean, yes, this is the best case scenario. I would love this to happen but there's no chance we can do all that in 2 years. You only have to look at other countries and see how long it took them to secure a trade deal. Not to mention we don't have any negotiators...

You can totally hire negotiators.
 
Although I voted to remain in the end, I was incredibly undecided. However, all the talk of global corporations abandoning the UK, the city collapse and relocation to Europe and the cutting off of investment reminds me of the debate about joining the euro currency.
One example.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/nissan-urges-britain-to-join-the-euro-1115176.html

We didn't,and that allowed us control over our own economy after the banks almost collapsed and then took all the taxpayers money that could have been spent on hospitals, schools, infrastructure, and if there was a bit left maybe invest in parts of the country away from the south east.
We still attract investment despite keeping sterling and the doomsayers were ultimately proved to be wrong.
I don't doubt that things may be difficult while uncertainty remains and I will be affected, but I'm also sure deals will be done and we will lose out in some areas and gain in others. We will contribute to the EU for research, defence and security etc and continue to be a European country.
 

mclem

Member
Although I voted to remain in the end, I was incredibly undecided. However, all the talk of global corporations abandoning the UK, the city collapse and relocation to Europe and the cutting off of investment reminds me of the debate about joining the euro currency.
One example.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/nissan-urges-britain-to-join-the-euro-1115176.html

We didn't,and that allowed us control over our own economy after the banks almost collapsed and then took all the taxpayers money that could have been spent on hospitals, schools, infrastructure, and if there was a bit left maybe invest in parts of the country away from the south east.
We still attract investment despite keeping sterling and the doomsayers were ultimately proved to be wrong.
I don't doubt that things may be difficult while uncertainty remains and I will be affected, but I'm also sure deals will be done and we will lose out in some areas and gain in others. We will contribute to the EU for research, defence and security etc and continue to be a European country.

One major reason that the Euro was ultimately unnecessary? The banking passport. One major thing at risk from these negotiations? The banking passport.
 

Chittagong

Gold Member
Lol @ the fear mongering in this thread, as if the 6th biggest economy in the world somehow suddenly becomes a third world banana republic nobody cares to do trade deals with as a priority, because they won't be part of the federation.

I would argue that UK is, in fact, the number one priority for countries to get trade deals in place with, given that EU deals are already in place and don't require additional work at the moment.
 

entremet

Member
Lol @ the fear mongering in this thread, as if the 6th biggest economy in the world somehow suddenly becomes a third world banana republic nobody cares to do trade deals with as a priority, because they won't be part of the federation.

I would argue that UK is, in fact, the number one priority for countries to get trade deals in place with, given that EU deals are already in place and don't require additional work at the moment.

It's been a very interesting roller coaster for sure haha.

Even the markets are settling nicely.
 

chadskin

Member
You can totally hire negotiators.

Finding them will be one of the toughest challenges for whoever ends up managing Whitehall’s trade efforts. However, the pool to draw them from is tiny. Lord Price, the minister for trade and investment, has said that the Government has about 40 trade negotiators, compared with the 550 employed by the EU.

Yet even these figures may exaggerate the number of people qualified to go into the room for Britain and agree trading deals for a post-EU era. [Hosuk Lee-Makiyama, the director of the European Centre for International Political Economy,] estimates that there cannot be more than 200 actual negotiators in the world as a whole. This shortfall will require the civil service to look far and wide, and is indicative of the kind of skills shortages Whitehall will struggle with in the years ahead.

Lord Turnbull has said Parliamentary draftsmen familiar with the European legal and legislative system “will be like gold dust”. He recommended that the civil service starts “a programme to identify, among all those legal firms that we have, all the Slaughter and Mays and so on” people who might be able to help out the Government.

“Trade negotiation will be more difficult,” he admitted. “It’s not like the private sector has a lot that we can then borrow, but somehow we have to build up… it can’t be done in a matter of months.”

Trade negotiators are not like the academics who specialise in trade, and require a unique set of skills. Modern trade agreements would be incomprehensible to a person unfamiliar with them, written in a kind of legalistic code.

Lee-Makiyama says that people are often confused on this point. “Just because you know the substance doesn’t make you an expert,” he says.

Dealmakers have to know what strategy they will use, if they will scope out the negotiation, what they will scope, and how they will do it. They must have an idea of what they want to propose, in what order, and which sections of a trade deal they want to debate first. Developing an understanding of how to do this can take years.

“Even the European Commission has been accused of not being able to draft” proper agreements, Lee-Makiyama says. “This is why all the European free trade agreements include language copied and pasted from the US agreements.”

Part of the arsenal of any good negotiator is a formidable contacts book. Given the small number working in this area, negotiators tend to know each other, and those personal relationships can be as important as their technical abilities. Homegrown British negotiators would lack the access of their more seasoned adversaries.

Lamy suggests that the UK will have to engage in trade of trade negotiators themselves, if it is to field an effective team. “For the necessary expertise, you can hire Indians or Americans.”

Others have suggested that the UK could draw on favours from other Commonwealth nations, like New Zealand, to offer their assistance.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...ldwide-hunt-for-trade-negotiators-experts-wa/
 
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