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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM

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Xun

Member
I've said it before but the more things fuck up the better in my opinion.

Leave voters need to know the error of their ways, and hopefully in shit hitting the fan we can somehow get out of this fucking mess.

Whatever happens though my opinion of 52% of the population has forever changed.
 

Burai

shitonmychest57
I've said it before but the more things fuck up the better in my opinion.

Leave voters need to know the error of their ways, and hopefully in shit hitting the fan we can somehow get out of this fucking mess.

Whatever happens though my opinion of 52% of the population has forever changed.

But they'll just blame it all on something or someone else. They look for easy answers to complex problems.

Either that or they'll spin things as we've seen today in the papers. "House prices up post Brexit!" The only reason we left is because we've had papers and politicians telling people for years that Britain is ruined even though it quite clearly isn't. If the papers start saying everything is rosy, people will genuinely believe it.
 

DiGiKerot

Member
so more lies undone



Was it not one of the remains camp argument that we would have all the refugees now coming over?

Both camps were liars, I think this has shown

They need to stop the fleeing and turn-around the fleeing British economic migrants somewhere, after all.
 

accel

Member
You can't just 'exit into EEA', it requires negotiations between the EU and the UK as well as the approval of the 27 EU member states. Hammond said recently he estimates it'd take four to six years to come to a trade agreement, on top of the two years for the exit negotiations.

Requires approval, yes (from 30 countries, not 27 - the UK would be joining EFTA; if the members are fine with that, that could mean the UK preserves their membership in EEA, there might be no need to exit and re-enter EEA, according to the EFTA secretariat). Does not require four to six years, and does not require anything "on top" of exit negotiations, this can be the essence of the exit for now, if all members are on board - and the UK exiting into nowhere is in noone's interest.
 

dumbo

Member
Was it not one of the remains camp argument that we would have all the refugees now coming over?

AFAIR, they argued that:
- Brexit would not change the rate of entry into the UK of those immigrants, as they are not EU citizens. (basically Farage's famous poster of non-EU immigrants is not changed positively by brexit)
- Brexit would mean that France would need to revisit the Calais situation, and decide what they want to do about it.

At this point, it seems that the prevailing argument for the French government is that "opening Calais" wouldn't actually solve anything for the French government. (as they would still need to illegally board the ferries - something that the French obviously don't like).

So /shrug. It's not wrong to say that it wouldn't be positive for non-EU immigration, and whether it's negative is entirely up to the French government.
 
Requires approval, yes (from 30 countries, not 27 - the UK would be joining EFTA; if the members are fine with that, that could mean the UK preserves their membership in EEA, there might be no need to exit and re-enter EEA, according to the EFTA secretariat). Does not require four to six years, and does not require anything "on top" of exit negotiations, this can be the essence of the exit for now, if all members are on board - and the UK exiting into nowhere is in noone's interest.
What do you think about the fact that there will still be freedom of movement?
 

accel

Member
What do you think about the fact that there will still be freedom of movement?

If the UK exits into EEA, freedom of movement might be limited through article 112 - or it might not, ie, for political reasons. I am fine with this not happening there as long as exiting into EEA is an intermediate step of exiting "for real".
 

spekkeh

Banned
so more lies undone



Was it not one of the remains camp argument that we would have all the refugees now coming over?

Both camps were liars, I think this has shown

I mean, I don't think France will do an Erdogan, but at the same time they are of course still committed because the UK is still in the EU, and will be for the next two to three years.
 
If the UK exits into EEA, freedom of movement might be limited through article 112 - or it might not, ie, for political reasons. I am fine with this not happening there as long as exiting into EEA is an intermediate step of exiting "for real".
Firstly, the limitation of freedom of movement as an EEA member won't happen, look at Switzerland, so don't pretend that it might.

Secondly do you think the EEA would welcome a member that has vowed to leave in the future?
 

accel

Member
Firstly, the limitation of freedom of movement as an EEA member won't happen, look at Switzerland, so don't pretend that it might.

Secondly do you think the EEA would welcome a member that has vowed to leave in the future?

Article 112 is invoked unilaterally.

The UK already decided to exit, that's not up to debate, other members understand this. We are talking about how to do it in the way that is best for everyone. Exit through EEA as a temporary step might be exactly the thing that is best for everyone.
 
Article 112 is invoked unilaterally.

The UK already decided to exit, that's not up to debate, other members understand this. We are talking about how to do it in the way that is best for everyone. Exit through EEA as a temporary step might be exactly the thing that is best for everyone.
The UK voted to leave the EU, not to leave the EEA. Access to the EEA is not a right, it's a privilege, and comes at a cost.
 

Elandyll

Banned
so more lies undone



Was it not one of the remains camp argument that we would have all the refugees now coming over?

Both camps were liars, I think this has shown
I think if anything it's more damning for the "leave", whose argument was that the borders were "wide open" while in EU when obviously... they were not? (And May publicly states it here)
 

Theonik

Member
so more lies undone



Was it not one of the remains camp argument that we would have all the refugees now coming over?

Both camps were liars, I think this has shown
We'll see. The situation is re-evaluated. New solutions might be necessary now.
 

nekkid

It doesn't matter who we are, what matters is our plan.
I know a Scottish family (mother, father, three children (all of voting age)), that all voted against independence in 2014 and that would now all vote for independence. That's 5 new pro independent votes from 5 against. They aren't the only ones that changed their minds so radically. Pretty strong argument...

Of the 10 Scottish people I know who voted against independence, 9 now would vote for it. Evidence that over 90% of Scottish people want independence.

This may be a lie.
 

kmag

Member
Article 112 is invoked unilaterally.

The UK already decided to exit, that's not up to debate, other members understand this. We are talking about how to do it in the way that is best for everyone. Exit through EEA as a temporary step might be exactly the thing that is best for everyone.

The EU doesn't button up the back you know. The use of Article 112 in the way your describing is a brexit fantasy. I'll let this evidence to Treasury Committee speak for itself.

Chris Philp: Welcome to the Treasury Committee. Thank you for your time this morning. I would like to specifically talk about how, or whether, we might enter into an arrangement based partly or entirely on the EEA, and I would like to start by trying to elucidate some of the implications of that. Perhaps Professor Dougan would be a good place to start.

Professor Dougan, the assumption seems to have been made that membership of the EEA implies no restrictions to freedom of movement. Does that correspond to your understanding, particularly in light of Article 112 of the EEA agreement?

Professor Dougan: We should place free movement in the context of what the EEA covers and what it does not cover. The EEA is a very far‑reaching agreement. It covers all of the core treaty provisions and secondary legislation on the free movement of goods, persons, services and establishment. It covers competition law on state aids and public procurement. It also covers consumer protection, company law, environmental law and employment law. It covers various forms of co-operation, research and technological development, education and training, and so on.

Since the adoption of the EEA, over 7,000 pieces of EU law have been incorporated into the EEA agreement on top of the basic treaty provisions. It includes the working time directive and the free movement of citizenship directive. Many of the things that have been so controversial in a lot of the debate preceding the referendum are part of the EEA, just like they are part of EU law.

It does not cover things like the Common Agricultural Policy. There are no payments to farmers in Norway, for example. It does not cover foreign policy or the euro, but it is a very far-reaching agreement.

When it comes to free movement of persons in particular, there is a funny legal situation with the EEA. I mentioned it before. The EEA provisions are based on the EU treaty as it stood in 1992. The EU treaty provisions on the free movement persons have evolved since 1992; we now have the free movement of citizens as well as the free movement of workers.

Crucially, however, directive 2004/38, which governs the free movement of all EU citizens, is part of the EEA agreement. There are one or two adaptations to that directive under the principles of free movement within the EEA, but the main exception applies to Liechtenstein. Liechtenstein has quite significant restrictions on the free movement of European nationals into Liechtenstein. It is not surprising given the nature, size and territorial aspects of Liechtenstein as a country.

I have heard the suggestion that Article 112 of the EEA agreement could provide the basis for somehow exempting the UK from its obligations if we join the EEA, as regards free movement. I will give my honest opinion about this.

Chris Philp: Or at least modifying them—not exempting them but modifying them.

Professor Dougan: Sure. To be honest, entering into international negotiations with 30‑odd countries for an agreement, when it is absolutely clear as day that full free movement of persons is an integral part of that agreement and must be respected in full, and then securing the national agreements and ratifications of 30‑odd countries, and then trying to rely on a provision that is intended for emergency use in exceptional situations relating to very specific criteria so as to fully—but even partially—exempt ourselves from those types of obligations, would do nothing for our international credibility, would do nothing for this country on the international stage. Article 112 is an emergency safeguard provision for highly specific situations. It comes with obligations as well as opportunities. The idea that we would use it to somehow exempt ourselves from the normal regime of free movement of persons, wholly or partially, that applies under the EEA is, to be cruel, an armchair lawyer’s argument.

Q129 Chris Philp: To be clear, the free movement provisions in the EEA relates to the free movement of citizens, not just to the free movement of workers.

Professor Dougan: The provisions in the EEA agreement itself relate to the free movement of workers, establishment and services. The EEA Joint Committee which is the body which absorbs European EU legislation into the EEA and makes it binding upon the EEA states, has absorbed the Citizenship Directive 2004/38 into the EEA.

There are certain grey areas that lawyers like me spend time playing around with. For example, there are certain rights that derive from the treaty provisions in the EU on citizenship that are not contained in the Citizenship Directive. They come directly from the EU treaty provisions on citizenship rather than from the directive on citizenship. It is not clear to anybody that those particular rights are part of the EEA obligations of the EEA states. To be honest ,they are very marginal. They only affect small numbers of people in very unusual situations. It is a very limited practical interest. In principle, Directive 2004/38 is binding on the EEA states as it is binding for the EU member states. We should not forget that Norway, as a result of that directive, has a number of EU migrants per capita that is higher than most of the EU member states, including the UK.

Raoul Ruparel: I am not sure if it is 112 or a following article that also allows, if this safeguarding measure is adopted, the rest of the EEA or EU to take retaliatory and rebalancing measures. If we did decide to activate it the possibility of reduction in access or other responses is also possible. It is more, in my understanding, to trigger a negotiation to try to find some agreement rather than something that can unilaterally stop free movement without any response. There would definitely be a retaliation.
 

chadskin

Member
Requires approval, yes (from 30 countries, not 27 - the UK would be joining EFTA; if the members are fine with that, that could mean the UK preserves their membership in EEA, there might be no need to exit and re-enter EEA, according to the EFTA secretariat). Does not require four to six years, and does not require anything "on top" of exit negotiations, this can be the essence of the exit for now, if all members are on board - and the UK exiting into nowhere is in noone's interest.

The EU trade commissioner was very clear after the referendum:
"First you exit then you negotiate," Cecilia Malmstrom told BBC Newsnight.

After Brexit, the UK would become a "third country" in EU terms, she said - meaning trade would be carried out based on World Trade Organisation rules until a new deal was complete.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36678222

What you're hoping for isn't a realistic outcome at this point, certainly not when there are a number of countries already chomping at the bit to take advantage of the UK's exit.
 
I'm pretty sure other countries haven't realized it's Great Britain who decided to leave. As soon as they do, they'll be begging to negotiate trade deals.
 

accel

Member
The EU doesn't button up the back you know. The use of Article 112 in the way your describing is a brexit fantasy. I'll let this evidence to Treasury Committee speak for itself.

I read that when it first appeared. Dougan is wrong.

Ie, he says - " Article 112 is an emergency safeguard provision for highly specific situations" - this is not the case, article 112 is neither an emergency provision nor it is a provision for highly specific situations. He's just wrong.

The EU trade commissioner was very clear after the referendum:

"First you exit then you negotiate," Cecilia Malmstrom told BBC Newsnight. ...

Good for the EU trade commissioner, but Article 50 (2) states that the Union "shall negotiate and conclude an agreement" with the departing State, "setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union". This covers where exactly the UK is exiting to and what future trade will be like.

(It is even more apparent if you note that if the UK exits into EEA, that saves a lot of work associated with the exit for both the EU and the UK. It *helps* exit faster - and perhaps "better" for everyone. So, yes, that definitely is a possible way to go - again, for everyone.)
 

Audioboxer

Member
SNP Westminster leader Angus Robertson says Scotland is "on the brink" of achieving independence.

The Moray MP's comments were made in a statement setting out his campaign to become the deputy leader of the SNP at the party's conference in October.

Robertson says the key themes of his platform will be leadership, grassroots and independence.

"We have built a party that is the most effective political party in the country. That strength is built upon from the working relationship between our members, branches and campaign teams. We now need to ensure that our structures allow new members to feel empowered to join in our campaigns and deliver even more record-breaking results.

He continued: "We also know that we are on the brink of independence; the campaign that comes now should be all about persuading people why our vision is the right one for Scotland. The SNP depute leader has a big role in order to make this happen - developing our policy, strategy and tactics to win.

SNP membership has risen beyond 120,000 following the EU referendum according to new figures released by the party. Membership of the party now stands at 120,203.

http://stv.tv/news/politics/1361454-angus-robertson-scotland-is-on-the-brink-of-independence/
 
I read that when it first appeared. Dougan is wrong.

Ie, he says - " Article 112 is an emergency safeguard provision for highly specific situations" - this is not the case, article 112 is neither an emergency provision nor it is a provision for highly specific situations. He's just wrong.

Agreement on the European Economic Area

Article 112
1. If serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties of a sectorial or regional
nature liable to persist are arising, a Contracting Party may unilaterally take appropriate
measures under the conditions and procedures laid down in Article 113.
2. Such safeguard measures shall be restricted with regard to their scope and duration to
what is strictly necessary in order to remedy the situation. Priority shall be given to such
measures as will least disturb the functioning of this Agreement.
3. The safeguard measures shall apply with regard to all Contracting Parties.
Article 113
1. A Contracting Party which is considering taking safeguard measures under Article 112
shall, without delay, notify the other Contracting Parties through the EEA Joint
Committee and shall provide all relevant information.
2. The Contracting Parties shall immediately enter into consultations in the EEA Joint
Committee with a view to finding a commonly acceptable solution.
3. The Contracting Party concerned may not take safeguard measures until one month
has elapsed after the date of notification under paragraph 1, unless the consultation
procedure under paragraph 2 has been concluded before the expiration of the stated
time-limit. When exceptional circumstances requiring immediate action exclude prior
examination, the Contracting Party concerned may apply forthwith the protective
measures strictly necessary to remedy the situation.
For the Community, the safeguard measures shall be taken by the EC Commission.
4. The Contracting Party concerned shall, without delay, notify the measures taken to the
EEA Joint Committee and shall provide all relevant information.
5. The safeguard measures taken shall be the subject of consultations in the EEA Joint
Committee every three months from the date of their adoption with a view to their
abolition before the date of expiry envisaged, or to the limitation of their scope of
application.
Each Contracting Party may at any time request the EEA Joint Committee to review such
measures.


Without getting into arguments about semantics I think your claim he is 'just wrong' is a bit heavy-handed.


I'm voting and hoping for Alyn Smith, it would be useful to have politicians that are well-known and liked in Brussels at the helm if it comes down to a second referendum.
 

kmag

Member
I read that when it first appeared. Dougan is wrong.

Ie, he says - " Article 112 is an emergency safeguard provision for highly specific situations" - this is not the case, article 112 is neither an emergency provision nor it is a provision for highly specific situations. He's just wrong.



Good for the EU trade commissioner, but Article 50 (2) states that the Union "shall negotiate and conclude an agreement" with the departing State, "setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union". This covers where exactly the UK is exiting to and what future trade will be like.

Hmm, Professor of Law specialising in the field or random poster on Neogaf who's spend the thread posting flexcit pish . I know who my moneys on. In the one post both the EU commissioner and a specialist EU law professor are wrong in their understanding of the thing they do for a living, and blackcrane is right. Cool

Article 112
1. If serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties of a sectorial or regional nature liable to persist are
arising, a Contracting Party may unilaterally take appropriate measures under the conditions and procedures laid
down in Article 113.
2. Such safeguard measures shall be restricted with regard to their scope and duration to what is strictly necessary in
order to remedy the situation. Priority shall be given to such measures as will least disturb the functioning of this
Agreement.
3. The safeguard measures shall apply with regard to all Contracting Parties

Article 113
1. A Contracting Party which is considering taking safeguard measures under Article 112 shall, without delay, notify
the other Contracting Parties through the EEA Joint Committee and shall provide all relevant information.
2. The Contracting Parties shall immediately enter into consultations in the EEA Joint Committee with a view to
finding a commonly acceptable solution.
3. The Contracting Party concerned may not take safeguard measures until one month has elapsed after the date of
notification under paragraph 1, unless the consultation procedure under paragraph 2 has been concluded before the
expiration of the stated time limit. When exceptional circumstances requiring immediate action exclude prior
examination, the Contracting Party concerned may apply forthwith the protective measures strictly necessary to
remedy the situation.
For the Community, the safeguard measures shall be taken by the EC Commission.
4. The Contracting Party concerned shall, without delay, notify the measures taken to the EEA Joint Committee and
shall provide all relevant information.
5. The safeguard measures taken shall be the subject of consultations in the EEA Joint Committee every three months from the date of their adoption with a view to their abolition before the date of expiry envisaged, or to the limitation of their scope of application. Each Contracting Party may at any time request the EEA Joint Committee to review such measures.
Article 114
1. If a safeguard measure taken by a Contracting Party creates an imbalance between the rights and obligations under this Agreement, any other Contracting Party may towards that Contracting Party take such proportionate rebalancing measures as are strictly necessary to remedy the imbalance. Priority shall be given to such measures as
will least disturb the functioning of the EEA.
2. The procedure under Article 113 shall apply

The intent of the article is blindingly clear when you read it and the supporting article. It is not intended to be a long term measure.

Again you're wanting to somehow trick the EU, they're not as stupid as you are. You can't sign up to a deal then immediately say oh fuck we made a mistake there's a continuing societial pressure requiring that we can no longer allow the free movement of people despite you know telling you all that we could. Get a grip.
 
The idea that the UK could enter an economic union then immediately invoke emergency restrictions is just a joke.

If you can't handle freedom of movement of people, don't join the EEA!
 

accel

Member
Without getting into arguments about semantics I think your claim he is 'just wrong' is a bit heavy-handed.

I can remove the 'just', and leave 'he is wrong'. Article 112 is neither an emergency provision nor a provision for highly specific situations. His entire point is based on that and that's not the case. It is a safeguard provision, yes, that part is right. That's precisely how it could be used.

Hmm, Professor of Law specialising in the field or random poster on Neogaf who's spend the thread posting flexcit pish . I know who my moneys on. In the one post both the EU commissioner and a specialist EU law professor are wrong in their understanding of the thing they do for a living, and blackcrane is right. Cool

That's an argument from authority. People can be wrong. Even law professors.

But sure enough, you can bet however you want, no problems with that.

The intent of the article is blindingly clear when you read it and the supporting article. It is not intended to be a long term measure.

The article and the supporting article demonstrate with blinding clarity exactly what I said. Yes, it's not intended as a long term measure, and nobody needs it as a long term measure, that's irrelevant.

Ie, if you read the text you pasted, you will note that there is an emergency clause in 113.3. Something that *contains* an emergency clause can not *be* an emergency provision by itself.

And the "highly specific situations" are, in fact, defined as broadly as "serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties of a sectorial or regional nature liable to persist". That's not "highly specific", that's "broadly defined". And if you still insist that this is "highly specific", just look at the cases the article has been invoked - the reasons vary wildly from case to case.
 
I can remove the 'just', and leave 'he is wrong'. Article 112 is neither an emergency provision nor a provision for highly specific situations. His entire point is based on that and that's not the case. It is a safeguard provision, yes, that part is right. That's precisely how it could be used.

Well, let's hope that's how the rest of the member countries see it. But it would be wise not to count on it. I can't see a grown up argument that could be made on "serious economic, societal, or environmental" grounds for stopping free movement, because "some of our voters don't like it" is not that.
 

DiGiKerot

Member
I can remove the 'just', and leave 'he is wrong'. Article 112 is neither an emergency provision nor a provision for highly specific situations. His entire point is based on that and that's not the case. It is a safeguard provision, yes, that part is right. That's precisely how it could be used.



That's an argument from authority. People can be wrong. Even law professors.

But sure enough, you can bet however you want, no problems with that.



The article and the supporting article demonstrate with blinding clarity exactly what I said.

Ie, if you read the text you pasted, you will note that there is an emergency clause in 113.3. Something that *contains* an emergency clause can not *be* an emergency provision by itself.

And the "highly specific situations" are, in fact, defined as broadly as "serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties of a sectorial or regional nature liable to persist". That's not "highly specific", that's "broadly defined".

Even if he is wrong, asking the EEA members to agree the entry of a country on the basis that they are going to perpetually invoke an article that requires them devoting resources to review every three months, from reading what is posted above, is a pretty good way for those countries to turn around and tell you to sod right off, particularly when the reasons why you are invoking that article may not be in their interests in the first place.
 

accel

Member
Well, let's hope that's how the rest of the member countries see it. But it would be wise not to count on it. I can't see a grown up argument that could be made on "serious economic, societal, or environmental" grounds for stopping free movement, because "some of our voters don't like it" is not that.

I agree it would not be wise to count on it. That's why I said that this might or might not happen, ie, it might be better not to invoke it.

Even if he is wrong, asking the EEA members to agree the entry of a country on the basis that they are going to perpetually invoke an article that requires them devoting resources to review every three months, from reading what is posted above, is a pretty good way for those countries to turn around and tell you to sod right off, particularly when the reasons why you are invoking that article may not be in their interests in the first place.

Not perpetually, until the UK exits the EEA. Plus there can be a more permanent provision, like, for example, with Liechtenstein (they kept reviewing every 3 months, then decided to review every 6 years or so, etc).
 

kmag

Member
I can remove the 'just', and leave 'he is wrong'. Article 112 is neither an emergency provision nor a provision for highly specific situations. His entire point is based on that and that's not the case. It is a safeguard provision, yes, that part is right. That's precisely how it could be used.



That's an argument from authority. People can be wrong. Even law professors.

But sure enough, you can bet however you want, no problems with that.



The article and the supporting article demonstrate with blinding clarity exactly what I said.

Ie, if you read the text you pasted, you will note that there is an emergency clause in 113.3. Something that *contains* an emergency clause can not *be* an emergency provision by itself.

And the "highly specific situations" are, in fact, defined as broadly as "serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties of a sectorial or regional nature liable to persist". That's not "highly specific", that's "broadly defined". And if you still insist that this is "highly specific", just look at the cases the article has been invoked - the reasons vary wildly from case to case.

You've still not approached the crux of his argument. The notion that you'd enter into a deal which requires free movement of people and immediately ignore that requirement despite no material change in circumstances. It's an absolutely ludicrous position as is the notion they'd actually let you. Complete fantasy.
 

Jisgsaw

Member
I can remove the 'just', and leave 'he is wrong'. Article 112 is neither an emergency provision nor a provision for highly specific situations. His entire point is based on that and that's not the case. It is a safeguard provision, yes, that part is right. That's precisely how it could be used.



That's an argument from authority. People can be wrong. Even law professors.

But sure enough, you can bet however you want, no problems with that.



The article and the supporting article demonstrate with blinding clarity exactly what I said. Yes, it's not intended as a long term measure, and nobody needs it as a long term measure, that's irrelevant.

Ie, if you read the text you pasted, you will note that there is an emergency clause in 113.3. Something that *contains* an emergency clause can not *be* an emergency provision by itself.

And the "highly specific situations" are, in fact, defined as broadly as "serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties of a sectorial or regional nature liable to persist". That's not "highly specific", that's "broadly defined". And if you still insist that this is "highly specific", just look at the cases the article has been invoked - the reasons vary wildly from case to case.

Let me get this clear:
Your point is to say that free movement of people would cause "serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties of a sectorial or regional nature liable to persist", right? And this would be caused by joining the EEA?

Then the solution is to NOT join the EEA. If you join the EEA and then activate this clause, when the only reason to activate this clause in the first place is because you joined the EEA, then I'd argue the UK would have been negotiating its entry in the EEA in bad faith.
And setting a precedent of negociating on bad faith is something the UK should avoid at all cost, considering the number of negociation it'll have to do with non-EU countries post Brexit (with a non-existing negociation force on top of that).

And even disregarding all of that, you'd have to prove the EU-immigration creates such circumstances in the first place, because data shows that EU immigration is a net positive for the UK.
 

accel

Member
Correct me if I'm wrong, but are we discussing whether or not Britain scamming the EU by abusing a provision is a good plan?

I don't see scamming. Is the provision there? It is. Has it been invoked? It has.

Why the UK invoking it is suddenly a scam and an abuse? It is not.

If you are referring to something like the UK covertly getting into EEA with all the members thinking it will behave and then the UK going "a-ha, tricked you" pulling 112, this is a non-starter, this is just not how things work on many levels, we are talking about countries and not people. (That's partly why negotiations in these matters take so much time, because there are nuances like that, which have to be considered, but that's not even the main reason. Obviously, steps like this are going to have politics before and after and things will get in balance before and after. That's why I am not saying it will happen, and merely saying it might - including that it might be OK with the EU, on balance.)
 

chadskin

Member
Good for the EU trade commissioner, but Article 50 (2) states that the Union "shall negotiate and conclude an agreement" with the departing State, "setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union". This covers where exactly the UK is exiting to and what future trade will be like.

(It is even more apparent if you note that if the UK exits into EEA, that saves a lot of work associated with the exit for both the EU and the UK. It *helps* exit faster - and perhaps "better" for everyone. So, yes, that definitely is a possible way to go - again, for everyone.)

Agreeing to WTO trade rules can be the framework of the UK's future relationship with the EU, you know, it really says nothing to support your view.

The UK automatically exits after two years (which some say is a tight deadline anyway), unless all EU members agree to extend the deadline, coming to an EEA agreement won't help the UK exit any faster.

Even if the UK and the EU negotiate a new EEA deal in parallel to the exit negotiations, the expectation is nonetheless it will take four to six years to reach completion, meaning effectively two to four years under WTO trade rules.
 

accel

Member
Let me get this clear:
Your point is to say that free movement of people would cause "serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties of a sectorial or regional nature liable to persist", right? And this would be caused by joining the EEA?

No. I would imagine the UK will claim "serious societal difficulties of regional nature liable to persist" from immigrants. Ie, immigration is undeniably an important question, that's partly why the Leave vote won. Whether or not the UK would be successful and whether or not it will do it at all, I don't know.
 

kmag

Member
I don't see scamming. Is the provision there? It is. Has it been invoked? It has.

Why the UK invoking it is suddenly a scam and an abuse? It is not.

If you are referring to something like the UK covertly getting into EEA with all the members thinking it will behave and then the UK going "a-ha, tricked you" pulling 112, this is a non-starter, this is just not how things work on many levels, we are talking about countries and not people. (That's partly why negotiations in these matters take so much time, because there are nuances like that, which have to be considered, but that's not even the main reason. Obviously, steps like this are going to have politics before and after and things will get in balance before and after. That's why I am not saying it will happen, and merely saying it might - including might be OK with the EU.)

They are not giving you the benefits of being in the club without the requirements of being in the club. Do they have to get a stapler and go around every forehead in England or so something? They're about to exclude the Swiss due to the current Swiss position on free movement.
 

accel

Member
You've still not approached the crux of his argument. The notion that you'd enter into a deal which requires free movement of people and immediately ignore that requirement despite no material change in circumstances. It's an absolutely ludicrous position as is the notion they'd actually let you. Complete fantasy.

The deal is entering the EEA. The EEA agreement contains article 112. The end.
 

Jisgsaw

Member
No. I would imagine the UK will claim "serious societal difficulties of regional nature liable to persist" from immigrants. Ie, immigration is undeniably an important question, that's partly why the Leave vote won. Whether or not the UK would be successful and whether or not it will do it at all, I don't know.

Immigration is an important question != "serious societal difficulties of regional nature liable to persist" from immigrants.

My (and other's) whole point is to show you why no one in their right mind will go this route, because it is completely ludicrous to try circumvent one of the main concept (free movement of people) you just agreed to by joining the EEA.

The deal is entering the EEA. The EEA agreement contains article 112. The end.

Again, article 112 is there in order for a member to cope with unexpected serious event.
Not to be triggered in order to circumvent one of the major points of the agreement you're trying to sign. Doing so is negociating in bad faith, you don't want to have this reputation.
 

kmag

Member
Immigration is an important question != "serious societal difficulties of regional nature liable to persist" from immigrants.

My (and other's) whole point is to show you why no one in their right mind will go this route, because it is completely ludicrous to try circumvent one of the main concept (free movement of people) you just agreed to by joining the EEA.

Not only that safeguards enacted in 112 have to be able to survive neutral arbitration. No arbitration process is going to let such a naked ploy stand.
 

nickcv

Member
The deal is entering the EEA. The EEA agreement contains article 112. The end.

The deal also contains free movement.
If free movement is unacceptable than don't enter the deal.

Honestly I hope your politics actually do what you are suggesting and that you'll enjoy the consequences of doing such a thing.

You can basically count on every other trade deal with the UK to take twice as much time because the other parties will make sure that the trade contract will cover every single meaningless detail to avoid a repeat of what you suggest the UK should be doing.
 
The deal is entering the EEA. The EEA agreement contains article 112. The end.

Sorry but...
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I mean, trying it might be a good idea if your goal is to destroy what little hope we have of negotiating anything remotely like a decent deal afterwards.
 

Kabouter

Member
If you are referring to something like the UK covertly getting into EEA with all the members thinking it will behave and then the UK going "a-ha, tricked you" pulling 112, this is a non-starter, this is just not how things work on many levels, we are talking about countries and not people. (That's partly why negotiations in these matters take so much time, because there are nuances like that, which have to be considered, but that's not even the main reason. Obviously, steps like this are going to have politics before and after and things will get in balance before and after. That's why I am not saying it will happen, and merely saying it might - including that it might be OK with the EU, on balance.)

If it's not going to be an attempted trick, then it's a non-starter, because as has been said many times, limitations on freedom of movement and EEA membership are mutually exclusive. You're never going to get all of the EU to agree to let the UK join the EEA knowing full well it will immediately activate art. 112, because it is effectively the same as the UK getting an EEA deal with built in limits on freedom of movement, which is not happening.
 

accel

Member
Not only that safeguards enacted in 112 have to be able to survive neutral arbitration. No arbitration process is going to let such a naked ploy stand.

I don't know where you are even getting this from, you pasted the text of the articles yourself.

"113.5. The safeguard measures taken shall be the subject of consultations in the EEA Joint Committee every three months from the date of their adoption with a view to their abolition before the date of expiry envisaged, or to the limitation of their scope of application. Each Contracting Party may at any time request the EEA Joint Committee to review such measures."

Yes, consultations. Yes, every three months - unless it is decided that it is not necessary to meet that frequently. Yes, with a view to their abolition, etc. But whether or not to uphold the measures is in the hands of whoever invokes article 112.

Now, what happens when some members have a different opinion regarding whether invoking article 112 is justified. Well, that's also in the text you pasted:

"114.1. If a safeguard measure taken by a Contracting Party creates an imbalance between the rights and obligations under this Agreement, any other Contracting Party may towards that Contracting Party take such proportionate rebalancing measures as are strictly necessary to remedy the imbalance. Priority shall be given to such measures as will least disturb the functioning of the EEA."

Proportionate rebalancing measures.

And in the end all we are talking about is something like a quota on the number of entrants per year. With the value perhaps at the level of what it was de-facto in the last 5 years or so. Such a big hit, completely impossible to negotiate. Yeah.

If it's not going to be an attempted trick, then it's a non-starter, because as has been said many times, limitations on freedom of movement and EEA membership are mutually exclusive. You're never going to get all of the EU to agree to let the UK join the EEA knowing full well it will immediately activate art. 112, because it is effectively the same as the UK getting an EEA deal with built in limits on freedom of movement, which is not happening.

Look, again, saying that "limitations on freedom of movement and EEA membership are mutually exclusive" is wrong - they aren't, article 112 has been invoked more than once already.

I *am not* saying that it's simple - we enter EEA, invoke 112, everything is fine. No, it is more complex than that. But it is a possibility to keep in mind.
 
I don't know where you are even getting this from, you pasted the text of the articles yourself.

"113.5. The safeguard measures taken shall be the subject of consultations in the EEA Joint Committee every three months from the date of their adoption with a view to their abolition before the date of expiry envisaged, or to the limitation of their scope of application. Each Contracting Party may at any time request the EEA Joint Committee to review such measures."

Yes, consultations. Yes, every three months - unless it is decided that it is not necessary to meet that frequently. Yes, with a view to their abolition, etc. But whether or not to uphold the measures is in the hands of whoever invokes article 112.

Now, what happens when some members have a different opinion regarding whether invoking article 112 is justified. Well, that's also in the text you pasted:

"114.1. If a safeguard measure taken by a Contracting Party creates an imbalance between the rights and obligations under this Agreement, any other Contracting Party may towards that Contracting Party take such proportionate rebalancing measures as are strictly necessary to remedy the imbalance. Priority shall be given to such measures as will least disturb the functioning of the EEA."

Proportionate rebalancing measures.

And in the end all we are talking about is something like a quota on the number of entrants per year. With the value perhaps at the level of what it was de-facto in the last 5 years or so. Such a big hit, completely impossible to negotiate. Yeah.
Ask Switzerland how their negotations are going. What would it take to convince you of the fact that EEA means freedom of movement or labour for the UK?

You are being completely intellectually dishonest.
 

kmag

Member
I don't know where you are even getting this from, you pasted the text of the articles yourself.

"113.5. The safeguard measures taken shall be the subject of consultations in the EEA Joint Committee every three months from the date of their adoption with a view to their abolition before the date of expiry envisaged, or to the limitation of their scope of application. Each Contracting Party may at any time request the EEA Joint Committee to review such measures."

Yes, consultations. Yes, every three months - unless it is decided that it is not necessary to meet that frequently. Yes, with a view to their abolition, etc. But whether or not to uphold the measures is in the hands of whoever invokes article 112.

Now, what happens when some members have a different opinion regarding whether invoking article 112 is justified. Well, that's also in the text you pasted:

"114.1. If a safeguard measure taken by a Contracting Party creates an imbalance between the rights and obligations under this Agreement, any other Contracting Party may towards that Contracting Party take such proportionate rebalancing measures as are strictly necessary to remedy the imbalance. Priority shall be given to such measures as will least disturb the functioning of the EEA."

Proportionate rebalancing measures.

And in the end all we are talking about is something like a quota on the number of entrants per year. With the value perhaps at the level of what it was de-facto in the last 5 years or so. Such a big hit, completely impossible to negotiate. Yeah.

Go read article 111.4

If the EEA Joint Committee in such a dispute has not reached an agreement on a solution within six months from the date on
which this procedure was initiated or if, by then, the Contracting Parties to the dispute have not decided to ask for a ruling by
the Court of Justice of the European Communities, a Contracting Party may, in order to remedy possible imbalances,
- either take a safeguard measure in accordance with Article 112(2) and following the procedure of Article 113;
- or apply Article 102 mutatis mutandis.
4. If a dispute concerns the scope or duration of safeguard measures taken in accordance with Article 111(3) or Article 112, or the proportionality of rebalancing measures taken in accordance with Article 114, and if the EEA Joint Committee after three months from the date when the matter has been brought before it has not succeeded to resolve the dispute, any Contracting Party may refer the dispute to arbitration under the procedures laid down in Protocol 33. No question of interpretation of the provisions of this Agreement referred to in paragraph 3 may be dealt with insuch procedures. The arbitration award shall be binding on the parties to the dispute.
 

Jisgsaw

Member
Look, again, saying that "limitations on freedom of movement and EEA membership are mutually exclusive" is wrong - they aren't, article 112 has been invoked more than once already.

I'm curious and can't find it fast on google: in which circumstances was Art. 112 used already?

I *am not* saying that it's simple - we enter EEA, invoke 112, everything is fine. No, it is more complex than that. But it is a possibility to keep in mind.

Again, no one said that the UK couldn't technically do it. We're just explaining to you why it would be an horrible idea to try to do it.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
What kmag says. There's a shit ton of countries who'd be literally leaping to arbitrate with the UK over it. Article 112 has only been used, ever, by Liechtenstein for my knowledge. It's used for serious economic emergencies, not just a distrust of foreigners. Liechtenstein had 63% of the population being immigrants when they triggered it.
 
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