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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM

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Audioboxer

Member
I'll have to go date a cute Swedish or German chick to get out of this increasingly shitty country, if 'Brexit means Brexit', I suppose.

From watching May it's something I genuinely believe she will do. I mean she oozes confidence like most smug MP's but I genuinely believe her when she says Brexit means Brexit.

It'll still be dragged out a few years though. They'll try and band aid the next few years in the hope the public gives up interest and then systematically carry on with all the cuts and changes behind the scenes when we are fully out of Europe.

A Swedish or German girl just sounds like a good idea anyway :p
 
This is hardly surprising, but
Theresa May was given a blunt warning from a French statesman today that it was “pie in the sky” to expect free trade with Europe while curbing EU migration.

The dismissal of hope for a free trade deal after Brexit came from Pascal Lamy, a former head of the World Trade Organisation, as Mrs May was setting off to Paris for her first talks with President François Hollande.

French hostility to Britain’s exit plans was summed up by Mr Lamy, a former chief of staff to Jacques Delors, the architect of EU federalism. “The UK will not have outside the EU the same easy access to EU single market. This is absolutely obvious,” he said. He predicted the first question to Mrs May from Mr Hollande would be: “What are you looking for?” He added that the idea of Norway-style access to the single market without free movement of labour and a hefty annual payment to EU funds was “pie in the sky”.

per the Evening Standard.

Comments are amusing, though, and even include the typical appeal to German car manufacturers.
 

EmiPrime

Member
Ucchedavāda;210861234 said:
Comments are amusing, though, and even include the typical appeal to German car manufacturers.

French wine makers and German car manufacturers hold the balance of power in Europe. It is known.
 

RulkezX

Member
Cn5DUl0XgAA9Tln.jpg:medium


It's been fun England, but really, it's about time we (Scotland) now leave.

graphic_map_31_last-lr_1.jpg


Scotland will be a part of the UK long after we are gone. There won't be a second indyref for a start and if there was it'd be even harder to convince people to leave than last time.
 

kmag

Member
Ucchedavāda;210861234 said:
This is hardly surprising, but




per the Evening Standard.

Comments are amusing, though, and even include the typical appeal to German car manufacturers.

I mean is it really fucking self obvious though, you simply can't have any or most of the benefits of being a member of a club without actually being a member. If you could there would be no point in having the club at all.
 

kmag

Member
graphic_map_31_last-lr_1.jpg


Scotland will be a part of the UK long after we are gone. There won't be a second indyref for a start and if there was it'd be even harder to convince people to leave than last time.

That's not what current polling is saying.

Also (not that it means much) but even in the indy ref, native Scots voted Yes, it was the immigrants (mainly English and EU) which voted no. As the EU immigrants fade, there will be more of a consensus for yes.
 

Audioboxer

Member
graphic_map_31_last-lr_1.jpg


Scotland will be a part of the UK long after we are gone. There won't be a second indyref for a start and if there was it'd be even harder to convince people to leave than last time.

Sturgeon is a mile better than Salmond. There will be another ref under her. She'll bide her time till the chance is the greatest and then go for it.

As for it being harder to convince people, where have you been? Shit went south not long after the first ref when the vow was called out for the utter shite it was. Since then and including the latest debacle with the EU and Trident things have only become even more fractured between us up North and politics down South. Not to mention people being scared into the thought of Scotland not being in the EU if YES won and look at the irony of that now.
 

RulkezX

Member
That's not what current polling is saying.

Also (not that it means much) but even in the indy ref, native Scots voted Yes, it was the immigrants (mainly English and EU) which voted no. As the EU immigrants fade, there will be more of a consensus for yes.

Jesus's Wept that is utter nonsense.
 
Scotland will be a part of the UK long after we are gone. There won't be a second indyref for a start and if there was it'd be even harder to convince people to leave than last time.

You might want to revise your priors.

it was the immigrants (mainly English and EU) which voted no.

Only rUK were heavily in favour of No, EU immigrants were 57-43 compared to 50-50 for Scots. The difference between Protestants and Catholics was much larger...

Edit: Here's where I got those numbers from.
 

kmag

Member
Jesus's Wept that is utter nonsense.

Take it up with YouGov, because that what their post match polling said.

Birthplace.jpg


If you have anyother evidence then feel free to present it (btw it doesn't exist all the post match 'exit' polling shows roughly similar). Scotland is a small country with quite a large proportion of it's 'population' born externally. They largely voted no.
 

accel

Member
A good article after the visit of May to Germany:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-germany-insight-idUKKCN1012AN?utm

An excerpt (but read the whole piece, it is good):

Behind the concern of the German officials is a creeping realisation that the two-year window for negotiating a Brexit, as set out in Article 50, is far too short.

An extension of the period is possible, but it would require the unanimous agreement of the remaining 27 EU member states, and is therefore seen as unlikely, or at best unsure.

Berlin is also sceptical about the possibility of Britain revoking Article 50 once it has been triggered.

This means that something will have to give, German officials say. They spell out two possible scenarios.

Under the first, the EU would revise its position and agree to a prolonged period of negotiations before Article 50 is invoked. That would win both sides extra time before the clock starts ticking, but it would represent a climbdown and probably provoke outrage in some EU capitals, notably Paris.

The second option, in the event May triggers Article 50 early next year, would be for Britain to settle for a very basic framework for its future ties with the EU, based on an existing model similar to that of Norway or Switzerland.

Even then, the deadline of two years is widely viewed as a stretch.

For the record, this:

"A lot of people have 'climbed up trees', people like David Davis and Liam Fox," said one of the German officials, referring to the new Brexit and trade ministers in London. "They need time to climb down."

...is well said. Support wholeheartedly.
 

Pandy

Member
Jesus's Wept that is utter nonsense.
You've already been corrected with sources above, but I'd invite you to imagine what the reaction would have been if the Scottish Government had excluded rUK and EU voters from voting.

Meanwhile, if the circa. 3 million EU voters had been allowed to vote in the EU ref, 'Remain' would likely have won.
 
A good article after the visit of May to Germany:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-germany-insight-idUKKCN1012AN?utm

An excerpt (but read the whole piece, it is good):



For the record, this:



...is well said. Support wholeheartedly.

For sure 2 years is fantasy if we don't go down a purely symbolic route. Even 6 years would probably be very hard even if Britain already had an army of talented negotiators (we have none) and intelligent politicians in charge of it all (again, we don't). Realistically it will take over 10 years to have a proper divorce. The problem is that there is effectively no prospect of getting the 2 year period extended, and while some countries might open up to the idea of starting negotiations before article 50 eventually, it is unlikely that every country will do so. So there will be few guarantees that any agreements will be accepted once the formal negotiations start after the article is triggered.

A lot will depend on how willing May is to accept a deal with access to the single market and all four freedoms. Doubling down on freedom of movement would be a fucking mess unless there are massive changes in next year's elections (and any changes that could benefit Britain in the short term would be destabilising to the continent, so it's not necessarily a good idea to bank on that).
 
PMI at lowest since 2009. Don't worry.

To elaborate:
  • Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index(1) at 47.7 (52.4 in June). 87-month low.
  • Flash UK Services PMI Activity Index(2) at 47.4 (52.3 in June). 88-month low.
  • Flash UK Manufacturing PMI(3) at 49.1 (52.1 in June). 41-month low.
  • Flash UK Manufacturing PMI Output Index(4) at 49.1 (52.9 in June). 40-month low.

PMIs are a metric of economic health.
 

Daffy Duck

Member
Blackpool resident here; it can be good for a weekend but is a black hole that sucks you in to misery and despair.

Do you still have that awesome ghost house (Passaj Du Terror) or something? I went to that 12+ years ago and it was amazing.

Also that old Walhalla log flume at the pleasure beach was the GOAT.
 

Pandy

Member
A good article after the visit of May to Germany:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-germany-insight-idUKKCN1012AN?utm

An excerpt (but read the whole piece, it is good):



For the record, this:



...is well said. Support wholeheartedly.
Doesn't this ignore that we aren't negotiating a trade deal, just the terms of the exit?
(Like when the UK stops paying contributions, dates from which EU subsidies cease being paid, dates from which EU citizens rights no longer apply in the UK, vice versa, etc.)

The trade deal comes afterwards with no 'time limit' on negotiation, or had there been an update on that I missed?
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
A good article after the visit of May to Germany:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-germany-insight-idUKKCN1012AN?utm

An excerpt (but read the whole piece, it is good):



For the record, this:



...is well said. Support wholeheartedly.

Actually it's a pretty messed up article mixing trade deal negotiations with the exit negotiations, German anonymous sources (which I'm curious if they are reflected in the German media in any way) with EU officials and this quote makes me really question the understanding of the author about the whole process:

Berlin is also sceptical about the possibility of Britain revoking Article 50 once it has been triggered.
 

kmag

Member
To elaborate:
  • Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index(1) at 47.7 (52.4 in June). 87-month low.
  • Flash UK Services PMI Activity Index(2) at 47.4 (52.3 in June). 88-month low.
  • Flash UK Manufacturing PMI(3) at 49.1 (52.1 in June). 41-month low.
  • Flash UK Manufacturing PMI Output Index(4) at 49.1 (52.9 in June). 40-month low.

PMIs are a metric of economic health.

They might just be a short term reaction to the headline news, but it's hard to understate just how bad those figures actually are. The consensus expectation was for a PMI of 49 (indicating a controlled reduction) this is getting close to worst case scenario territory and seems to suggest that the anecdotal evidence that companies were caught on the hop by the result was accurate.

If people are wondering the PMI (basically a survey of purchasing managers) is generally very indicative of GDP moves as you can see from this chart

proxy.jpg
 

Tyaren

Member
graphic_map_31_last-lr_1.jpg


Scotland will be a part of the UK long after we are gone. There won't be a second indyref for a start and if there was it'd be even harder to convince people to leave than last time.

I know a Scottish family (mother, father, three children (all of voting age)), that all voted against independence in 2014 and that would now all vote for independence. That's 5 new pro independent votes from 5 against. They aren't the only ones that changed their minds so radically. Pretty strong argument...
 

Xando

Member
To elaborate:
  • Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index(1) at 47.7 (52.4 in June). 87-month low.
  • Flash UK Services PMI Activity Index(2) at 47.4 (52.3 in June). 88-month low.
  • Flash UK Manufacturing PMI(3) at 49.1 (52.1 in June). 41-month low.
  • Flash UK Manufacturing PMI Output Index(4) at 49.1 (52.9 in June). 40-month low.

PMIs are a metric of economic health.

Don't worry everything is fine....



 

AHA-Lambda

Member
graphic_map_31_last-lr_1.jpg


Scotland will be a part of the UK long after we are gone. There won't be a second indyref for a start and if there was it'd be even harder to convince people to leave than last time.

wtf are you talking about?

I know so many people, including myself, who voted No before that would vote Yes now.
 

Xando

Member
The other thing is PMI doesn't include construction if I remember correctly. Those figures are due next week, and should be erm interesting.

I'm quite suprised UK PMI fell as sharp considering the german PMI overperformed this morning.
I guess leavers claiming Brexit will hurt europe a lot more than the UK need to find a new excuse.

@FerdiGiugliano
"#Brexit will hurt them more than it will hurt us".

EZ PMI composite 52.9
UK PMI composite 47.7

Yep.
https://twitter.com/FerdiGiugliano/status/756413068352036864?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
 

RedShift

Member
Something something project fear.

It's kind of hilarious that after the Tories managed to blame Labour for a global recession caused by the US sub prime mortgage market, we're about to have a recession the Tories are directly to blame for and they'll still probably be seen as a safe pair of hands for the economy.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
kmag, do you have the source on that polling? As far as I know, YouGOV doesn't use decimals because they're too precise to be relevant given the degree of accuracy possible. It's making me think someone just raided the subsamples instead of doing a proper poll, in which case it should basically be disregarded (subsamples both a) have a much larger margin of error, and b) are pre-weighting, which means they're often wrongly sampled and are then adjusted afterwards).

On a different note, the market odds on Brexit not happening are still only just under 50%. Looks like avaya was right about investors still wanting to pretend this isn't happening.
 

PJV3

Member
Something something project fear.

It's kind of hilarious that after the Tories managed to blame Labour for a global recession caused by the US sub prime mortgage market, we're about to have a recession the Tories are directly to blame for and they'll still probably be seen as a safe pair of hands for the economy.

The people chose, nobody need take responsibility.
 

Spaghetti

Member
Seems funny that people fostering the idiotic idea of British Empire-style revival of the Isles have further consigned the UK to the wastepaper basket of history.
 

Lego Boss

Member
PMI at lowest since 2009. Don't worry.

But, but, but The Express and The Telegraph said yesterday that the economy is booming post-referendum.

House prices went UP in June (surprising given as the referendum was in the final week(.

It's OK mum, we're all going to be fine! Thanks for listening to the God Channel which told you to vote for independence from the Brussels Beelzebub!

(This actually happened. My mum was influenced by some preacher on the God Channel saying to vote out. WTF is this shit?)
 
Something something project fear.

It's kind of hilarious that after the Tories managed to blame Labour for a global recession caused by the US sub prime mortgage market, we're about to have a recession the Tories are directly to blame for and they'll still probably be seen as a safe pair of hands for the economy.

They'll just blame Europe... or the immigrants. Or people on benefits. Maybe the disabled? Whatever works really.
 
But, but, but The Express and The Telegraph said yesterday that the economy is booming post-referendum.

House prices went UP in June (surprising given as the referendum was in the final week(.

I read a couple of Mail/Express articles about the IMF admitting to being wrong and that the UK economy is actually booming.
I then looked at the IMF statement, which is basically a slashed growth forecast post-Brexit. That's some crazy spin to say the IMF admit to being wrong (because they changed revised their forecast...downwards) and that the UK economy is fine (becasue they still predict growth, despite revising their forecast downwards).

I'm guessing house prices went up because people were expecting remain to win for most of the month. Or maybe because foreign bargain hunters hit the London market when the pound crashed. July results will be interesting.
 

Calabi

Member
I'm quite suprised UK PMI fell as sharp considering the german PMI overperformed this morning.
I guess leavers claiming Brexit will hurt europe a lot more than the UK need to find a new excuse.


https://twitter.com/FerdiGiugliano/status/756413068352036864?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

There's a dude in the Sun newspaper bragging that the IMF forecast was wrong and revised and that see leaving the EU wasnt bad. Even though the revised outcome is worse than if we wouldn't have left(and we havent even left yet), its a clear decline, but at least its better than the rest of the EU.

These are the kind of delusional idiots that, I just what wonder what is going to happen when we do leave, and everything declines seriously and drastically. I just wonder for how long and how far their going to push the delusion.
 

accel

Member
Realistically it will take over 10 years to have a proper divorce. The problem is that there is effectively no prospect of getting the 2 year period extended, ...

From the article:

"They spell out two possible scenarios. Under the first, the EU would revise its position and agree to a prolonged period of negotiations before Article 50 is invoked. That would win both sides extra time before the clock starts ticking, but it would represent a climbdown and probably provoke outrage in some EU capitals, notably Paris."

Doesn't this ignore that we aren't negotiating a trade deal, just the terms of the exit?

Exit is connected with future trade. Ie, if the UK exits into EEA, trade changes one way, if it exits into somewhere else, trade changes a different way.

On a different note, the market odds on Brexit not happening are still only just under 50%.

Is this some kind of a poll or? (Added later: disregard, just realized you talk about betting.)
 

Jisgsaw

Member
Exit is connected with future trade. Ie, if the UK exits into EEA, trade changes one way, if it exits into somewhere else, trade changes a different way.

My understanding was rather that the two years are for all the legal and administrative stuff (how does the UK transition from EU to UK law, which institution it'll need to create, where the eU institution that are currenty in the UK will go, does anything in the EU needs to be changed now that the UK isn't in it (e.g. EU parliament seat allocation), things like that).
 

accel

Member
My understanding was rather that the two years are for all the legal and administrative stuff (how does the UK transition from EU to UK law, which institution it'll need to create, where the eU institution that are currenty in the UK will go, does anything in the EU needs to be changed now that the UK isn't in it (e.g. EU parliament seat allocation), things like that).

The two years are for that, yes, but the UK does not exit into nowhere - or rather it doesn't have to. It can exit into EEA, for example (and if it does so, this will help with many transition questions immediately).
 

Theonik

Member
On a different note, the market odds on Brexit not happening are still only just under 50%. Looks like avaya was right about investors still wanting to pretend this isn't happening.
The way I see it, it is harder for the UK government to leave than to stay so there is still a good likelihood they delay further or back down. Investors are hedging on that idea because if they are right, they are looking to make a lot of money for that risk.

The two years are for that, yes, but the UK does not exit into nowhere - or rather it doesn't have to. It can exit into EEA, for example.
Who knows. The whole process is vague and no-one knows how it's going to work. It also means the UK government needs to come down to earth sooner rather than later.
 

Jisgsaw

Member
The two years are for that, yes, but the UK does not exit into nowhere - or rather it doesn't have to. It can exit into EEA, for example (and if it does so, this will help with many transition questions immediately).

That would be the easiest route, yes.
But if the negotiator are even just remotely good at their job, they'll try to work an EEA deal out, but also negotiate all the legal and administrative points under the assumption that no EEA agreement will be reach in parallel.
When the 2 years come to pass, either EEA stands, or the parallel negotiation will be done, and UK exits the EU.
 

nickcv

Member
I don't know if this one was posted already:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36864273

Brexit plunges UK economy to worst level since 2009, data suggests


Data from IHS Markit's Purchasing Manager's Index, or PMI, shows a fall to 47.7 in July, the lowest level since April in 2009. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.
Both manufacturing and service sectors saw a decline in output and orders.
However, exports picked up, driven by the weakening of the pound.

The report surveyed more than 650 services companies, from sectors including transport, business services, computing and restaurants.
It is the first significant set of data measuring business reaction to the result of the UK referendum.

"Given the record slump in service sector business expectations, the suggestion is that there is further pain to come in the short-term at least."
Mr Williamson added that the economy could contract by 0.4% in the third quarter of this year, but that would depend on whether the current slump continued.
"The only other times we have seen this index fall to these low levels, was the global financial crisis in 2008/9, the bursting of the dot com bubble, and the 1998 Asian financial crisis," he told the BBC.
"The difference this time is that it is entirely home-grown, which suggest the impact could be greater on the UK economy than before."

"This is exactly what most economists were saying would happen."
 

nickcv

Member
The two years are for that, yes, but the UK does not exit into nowhere - or rather it doesn't have to. It can exit into EEA, for example (and if it does so, this will help with many transition questions immediately).

that is not how it works.

The two years are just to detail the exit itself. And considering the amount of stuff they have to untangle they might no have time whatsoever to discuss any EEA or something like that.
 

chadskin

Member
The two years are for that, yes, but the UK does not exit into nowhere - or rather it doesn't have to. It can exit into EEA, for example (and if it does so, this will help with many transition questions immediately).

You can't just 'exit into EEA', it requires negotiations between the EU and the UK as well as the approval of the 27 EU member states. Hammond said recently he estimates it'd take four to six years to come to a trade agreement, on top of the two years for the exit negotiations.
 

ss1

Neo Member
You can't just 'exit into EEA', it requires negotiations between the EU and the UK as well as the approval of the 27 EU member states. Hammond said recently he estimates it'd take four to six years to come to a trade agreement, on top of the two years for the exit negotiations.

Not just approval of 27 but also other EEA members as well.
 
From the article:

"They spell out two possible scenarios. Under the first, the EU would revise its position and agree to a prolonged period of negotiations before Article 50 is invoked. That would win both sides extra time before the clock starts ticking, but it would represent a climbdown and probably provoke outrage in some EU capitals, notably Paris."
My point is that for such negotiations to be useful you would need a broad consensus from all the member states in favour of them.

wtf are you talking about?

I know so many people, including myself, who voted No before that would vote Yes now.

I know a Scottish family (mother, father, three children (all of voting age)), that all voted against independence in 2014 and that would now all vote for independence. That's 5 new pro independent votes from 5 against. They aren't the only ones that changed their minds so radically. Pretty strong argument...

I was No (would also vote Yes now), my friends were roughly 50/50. Of the people I've spoken to since the referendum every single No voter has switched, that would be ~ 10 or so. Of course my sample is heavily biased since they are mainly highly educated university and financey types so it's not representative of all No voters obviously. One sentiment I've heard expressed many times (even by Tories) and which I agree with to some extent is that they voted against nationalism in 2014, and will do so again in the next indy ref, but this time against English nationalism. If forced to choose between their British and European identities, people tend to lean towards European.
 

jelly

Member
Pfft, experts...

I guess the only hope is a wake up call for the leave voters and put this mess to bed but I suppose EU, poor etc. as scapegoats for eternity while we wallow in increasing levels of our own sewage will be the case. That big bad EU won't let us have the best deal ever.
 

AHA-Lambda

Member
Something something project fear.

It's kind of hilarious that after the Tories managed to blame Labour for a global recession caused by the US sub prime mortgage market, we're about to have a recession the Tories are directly to blame for and they'll still probably be seen as a safe pair of hands for the economy.

It really is quite amazing how stupid people are.

Fuck the tories could get away with mirder right now
 

Tak3n

Banned
so more lies undone

On Thursday, May and Hollande said they were completely committed to maintaining the Calais border.

Was it not one of the remains camp argument that we would have all the refugees now coming over?

Both camps were liars, I think this has shown
 
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