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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM

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KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
Leave won 52%- 48%, not an insignificant margin. It would be a disgusting violation of democracy if they were ignored.
Not sure what UK / Eu could do to change the minds of the public.

What has EU to do with this? EU asked UK to get with it already. UK government is the one that has to make this decision.
 
Yeah I'm not a fan of that at all. You can say the vote was only advisory until you're blue in the face but the idea that 17m are too stupid and voted wrong is insulting. For better or worse leave won and we have to move forward with that decision. (voted remain)
I voted remain also. Im just wondering what the reaction would be if remain had won 52/48 and yet the government went ahead and left anyway.
 

Irminsul

Member
Yeah I'm not a fan of that at all. You can say the vote was only advisory until you're blue in the face but the idea that 17m are too stupid and voted wrong is insulting. For better or worse leave won and we have to move forward with that decision. (voted remain)

The problem is, no Leave voter knows exactly what they've voted for. Not because they're too stupid, but because it wasn't really clear beforehand what "leaving" exactly encompassed. Hell, it still isn't any more clear than it was before the vote.

This is why I have a problem with the argument of "respecting the vote". What outcome exactly would do this? The UK becoming an EEA member? Maximum Brexit? I mean, the former would probably go against what many Leave voters wanted out of the referendum, wouldn't it?
 

hodgy100

Member
the idea that 17m are too stupid and voted wrong is insulting.

Well there is education inequality as well as an income one. But overall it's not because they are stupid really, it's because information wasn't presented in a unbias and accurate way. The thing that worries me more about brexit isn't that we voted to leave the EU it's that we voted to leave the EU under false pretenses.

and as the above says a result that accurately represents the vote isn't a complete divorce from the EU, you still need to respect the opinion of the 48%. these things aren't black and white
 

Zaph

Member
If something is going to be so detrimental to the economy and people's literal lives, while providing no material gain, and based upon a campaign of obvious lies which nobody is being held accountable for, then yeah, I don't give two fucks if an advisory referendum is ignored. We don't live in a direct democracy, and well shit, even a country which is a direct democracy ignored their referendum on immigration control because they knew it would destroy the country.
 

Best

Member
Being unable to think critically and accepting biased information that has blindingly obviously been represented in a misleading way is the definition of thick. Leave voters are not kids, they need to take responsibility. Just like in the referendum they are willing to blame their fuck ups on others.
 
Yeah I'm not a fan of that at all. You can say the vote was only advisory until you're blue in the face but the idea that 17m are too stupid and voted wrong is insulting. For better or worse leave won and we have to move forward with that decision. (voted remain)

The only thing stupid here at this point is the leavers not seeing that they were lied to and continuing to tow the line for a movement that had no intention of winning the referendum to begin with.

You shouldn't feel stupid for being lied to, you should feel stupid for being told you've been lied to and continuing to side with the liars.
 

nickcv

Member
If something is going to be so detrimental to the economy and people's literal lives, while providing no material gain, and based upon a campaign of obvious lies which nobody is being held accountable for, then yeah, I don't give two fucks if an advisory referendum is ignored. We don't live in a direct democracy, and well shit, even a country which is a direct democracy ignored their referendum on immigration control because they knew it would destroy the country.

this is why foreign affair referendums are unconstitutional in Italy and cannot happen.
 

Par Score

Member
"Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others."

And at the very bottom of the Democracy pile is Direct Democracy.

There's a reason we have a representative democracy and the population don't just all get to vote on every issue, and that is that it is almost impossible for the average person to be well informed on every important issue at hand.

In the case of the EU Referendum people were in fact directly misinformed, and I continue to expect it's result to never be honoured.
 

BGBW

Maturity, bitches.
Because of the constant delay of article 50 ever being trigged, the weaker the argument that 'it is the will of the people' becomes. We're a fickle country and our opinion on 23rd June 2016 might not be the same come 23rd June 2017. You only have to see the opinions of reality TV to know how quickly we can turn.

Now it's just being left to stew in its own juices and doing no one any favours.
 
Switzerland's system lends itself to idiocracy at times because of legally binding referendums. Dragging almost half the country out of the EU and having a clean break with no free movement, single market, etc. when a significant amount of people want it is not a good thing for social cohesion. The Leave position of 'NO COMPROMISE EVER, DEMOCRACY' is getting tiring. The most democratic option is Brexit-lite, clearly. And let us never host a constitutional referendum on a simple majority ever again.

My dad supports Brexit and Donald Trump even though he's Chinese and an immigrant who isn't even a citizen, I dunno what to think of him anymore.
 

oti

Banned
Because of the constant delay of article 50 ever being trigged, the weaker the argument that 'it is the will of the people' becomes. We're a fickle country and our opinion on 23rd June 2016 might not be the same come 23rd June 2017. You only have to see the opinions of reality TV to know how quickly we can turn.

Now it's just being left to stew in its own juices and doing no one any favours.

I see this in myself tbh. I was super "Brexit means Brexit" myself after the referendum but now after some time has passed and the world needs unity more than ever I really hope Brexit can be prevented after all.
 

Jonnax

Member
Yeah I'm not a fan of that at all. You can say the vote was only advisory until you're blue in the face but the idea that 17m are too stupid and voted wrong is insulting. For better or worse leave won and we have to move forward with that decision. (voted remain)

http://www.bstubbs.co.uk/5a-c.htm
c8n0W1R.jpg

Well, what's the population of the UK again?
:p
 

Zaph

Member
My dad supports Brexit and Donald Trump even though he's Chinese and an immigrant who isn't even a citizen, I dunno what to think of him anymore.

Yeah, it's not an unheard of phenomenon. I grew up in an area with a large Indian demographic and was speaking to a friend who's parents (Indian immigrants themselves) and family voted Leave. I asked him why, because the general assumption is immigrants/minorities would vote Remain, and he described a train of thought which was equal parts fascinating and ridiculous.

The gist of it was, due to India's well known caste system and strong elitism - something being thought of as exclusive is very appealing. Therefore, with less immigration the UK is a more exclusive country and their 'standing' as British Citizens becomes more highly regarded, and they think it'll then be easier for their family back in India to also join this elite member's club.

Not at all saying this is a prevalent attitude with British Indians, but just an anecdotal perspective I thought I'd share.
 

Mr Git

Member
If 52% voted to bring back the death penalty would that be okay? (Which would be likely!).

Christ that's gonna be UKIP's next push isn't it. And it'd happen cause this country is full of jaded morons.

It should never have been a referendum allowing such a tiny majority. It should have been a resounding majority and nothing less - if 70% had voted Brexit then fine, shit the bed.
 
Christ that's gonna be UKIP's next push isn't it. And it'd happen cause this country is full of jaded morons.

It should never have been a referendum allowing such a tiny majority. It should have been a resounding majority and nothing less - if 70% had voted Brexit then fine, shit the bed.

A slight majority would support capital punishment if there was a referendum on it based on poll data.
 

Maledict

Member
how do hypothetical questions prove anything? think about it

I've seen some stupid shit on this forum.

Are you being deliberately obtuse?

There are numerous examples in history of both our country and others where direct democracy was absolutely the wrong thing. Where it was overruled either by the courts or by parliament. And yet here you are pretending that didn't happen and proclaiming a direct vote as the most sacred, unbreakable and righteous thing ever.

Either you accept that a direct vote, and majority opinions, are not necessarily the right thing or you are happy with legalised slavery, bans on homosexuality and gay marriage, and the death penalty.

Which is it?
 

Jackpot

Banned
how do hypothetical questions prove anything? think about it

I've seen some stupid shit on this forum.

Because such a simple concept can expose flaws in reasoning.

Why are you striving so hard to avoid the meat of the issue? What is it about these:

If 52% of the population voted to ban homosexuality would that be okay?

If 52% voted to bring back the death penalty would that be okay? (Which would be likely!).

that are so inapplicable to the real world that they can't be used to show how dumb the idea that you can't say "x million are are too stupid and voted wrong" is? Are you that intellectually stunted you can't see the reasoning behind it?

And why did you so obviously ignore the real-world example he posted?
 

kmag

Member
May visits N.Ireland and claims there are no plans to enact a border between North and South.

All well and good until she said the opposite would happen just last month. This also without taking into consideration what the Republic or the EU wants. Or that the leading political party of N.Ireland, the DUP, wants a border.

I thought Brexit means Brexit, you can't pick and choose what you want best. In short, nobody has a scooby what's going on.

She made the distinction between a hard border and a border. I reckon it would return to the customs border which was in place between 56 and 93, of course that's only if the EU doesn't make Ireland firm up it's perimeter border (although since Ireland isn't schengen country at the moment I don't think that's possible).

Even if the UK went into the EEA there would still need to be a customs border. EEA countries aren't part of the customs union. But the Norway/Swedish border has the same restrictions and in practice all it means is some very occasional customs stops.
 
second topic of political science 101.

The differences between imperative mandate and free mandate. It's shocking how people want that imperative mandate.
 

mrklaw

MrArseFace
Leave won 52%- 48%, not an insignificant margin. It would be a disgusting violation of democracy if they were ignored.
Not sure what UK / Eu could do to change the minds of the public.

Well a Norway deal EEA deal (plus passporting) would technically leave the EU while retaining free trade. The only downside (from some points of view) would be free movement - but then that was never voted for, it's simply being regurgitated constantly by brexiters
 
Well a Norway deal EEA deal (plus passporting) would technically leave the EU while retaining free trade. The only downside (from some points of view) would be free movement - but then that was never voted for, it's simply being regurgitated constantly by brexiters
Quite possibly, but why would the EU give us the services passport without a fight?
Also I cannot see the hardline leave mp's settling for no controls on EU migration at all.
Maybe a rebalanced economy slightly less reliant on the city may not be a bad thing in the long term.
 

Theonik

Member
I voted remain also. Im just wondering what the reaction would be if remain had won 52/48 and yet the government went ahead and left anyway.
Any government at any point may choose to leave the European Union. Some people would be very annoyed if this happened. I wouldn't equate the two scenarios though because staying in the EU is not a permanent decision whereas leaving is. The simple fact that making this decision binds future governments alone should require a stronger margin if your goal was to justify such a decision.

The only thing stupid here at this point is the leavers not seeing that they were lied to and continuing to tow the line for a movement that had no intention of winning the referendum to begin with.

You shouldn't feel stupid for being lied to, you should feel stupid for being told you've been lied to and continuing to side with the liars.
What's worse is people knowing they are lied to, having pretty much changed their minds but willing to not admit to the fact fearing of being told 'I told you so'. Utter bone-headedness.
 
Yeah I'm not a fan of that at all. You can say the vote was only advisory until you're blue in the face but the idea that 17m are too stupid and voted wrong is insulting. For better or worse leave won and we have to move forward with that decision. (voted remain)

Just because something is put up for democratic vote, it does not follow that all options are equally morally and / or intellectually justified. There has been countless examples where that was not the case, including historical cases such as those already listed, and including for example California's Proposition 8 in 2008, which was eventually struck down by a federal court.

And you certainly can't escape moral and intellectual culpability for the choices you make simply by appealing to the number of people who've made the same choice as you did.


This is the UK we are talking about. They will be back to fuck with the mainland sooner or later. That will probably never change. lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmoLnDabNHI
 

mrklaw

MrArseFace
Quite possibly, but why would the EU give us the services passport without a fight?
Also I cannot see the hardline leave mp's settling for no controls on EU migration at all.
Maybe a rebalanced economy slightly less reliant on the city may not be a bad thing in the long term.

So the people who voted out of Europe because they felt they weren't being listened to, will be ignored by Westminster MPS too, using the referendum results to push their own right wing agendas. Perfect
 
U.S. trade chief: Too soon to start bilateral UK trade talks | Reuters

U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman told his new British counterpart on Monday that the two countries cannot launch negotiations on bilateral trade and investment deals until more is known about Britain's future relationship with the European Union.

The U.S. Trade Representative's office said in a statement that Froman told UK Trade Secretary Liam Fox in a meeting in Washington "that the United States will be prepared to engage in conversations with the United Kingdom about how to develop our trade and investment relationship in the best way at the appropriate time."

...

"As a practical matter, it is not possible to meaningfully advance separate trade and investment negotiations with the United Kingdom until some of the basic issues around the future EU-UK relationship have been worked out," the USTR office said in the statement.
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
So the people who voted out of Europe because they felt they weren't being listened to, will be ignored by Westminster MPS too, using the referendum results to push their own right wing agendas. Perfect

It's not like people listen either, seeing who was voted in the GE. So, it's a nice political dialogue between deaf people.


Pretty much expected. Everybody wants to first see the deck before betting. The worse the EU deal is, the bigger the leverage for the others.
 

accel

Member
You can tell there is no real news when the thread goes back to whether it would be fine to ignore the result of the referendum.
 

kmag

Member
You can tell there are no real news when the thread goes back to whether it would be fine to ignore the result of the referendum.

We're at the point where the PM is going around Europe making soothing cooing noises while saying absolutely nothing.

I mean

I recognise that one of the biggest concerns for people is the common travel area. As I said yesterday, we benefited from a common travel area between the UK and the Republic of Ireland for many years before either country was a member of the EU. There is a strong will on both sides to preserve it and so we must now focus on securing a deal that is in the interests of both of us.

Alongside this, we should continue our efforts to strengthen the external borders of the common travel area; for example, through a common approach to the use of passenger data.

Is completely content free. Just like her previous speeches with Merkel and Holland.

Meanwhile we have Liam Fox saying it'll all be sorted by 2020, and we won't be in a customs union with the EU. No shit Sherlock, the custom union isn't even applicable to EEA members, and what's termed a customs union with Turkey is actually a pretty limited agreement applying to goods only, with country of origin rules and checks, no agriculture, services and the exclusion of coal and steel. Only EU members are in the EU customs union.
 

accel

Member
^^ I agree regarding content-free. I am about to stop reading news, there's nothing worth commenting on. Every news piece is either some bizarre and ultimately irrelevant angle, or some politic being loud while having no clue that half of the things he is saying aren't true.
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
Fox presses May to pull out of EU customs union

Theresa May is under growing pressure from Liam Fox, the trade secretary, to pull out of the EU customs union, a move required to facilitate post-Brexit bilateral trade deals but which would impose costs on exporters and could strain Anglo-Irish relations.

The issue is looming as a battleground in discussions over whether the UK will pursue a “hard” or “soft” Brexit. It will have to be resolved before London triggers Article 50, the starting gun for withdrawal negotiations with the EU.

Quitting the customs union would not preclude Britain remaining in the European single market. But the UK’s hands would be tied in trade deals because Britain would need to keep the same external tariffs as the customs union, leaving no room to negotiate on tariffs and other administrative issues.

One government insider confirmed that Dr Fox wanted to leave the customs union, saying: “It’s widely accepted that, to be able to negotiate free trade deals, we would have to be outside the customs union.”

The Treasury warned before the EU referendum that leaving the customs union, which covers all EU member states plus Turkey, would add “significant” administrative costs to trade, laborious form-filling and delays at border posts.

It also warned that goods crossing the Northern Ireland border into the Republic could face “various forms of customs control and their liability to duty determined according to complex rules or origin”.
 

Hyams

Member
Farron talking a lot of sense on the subject:

Farron revealed that Liberal Democrat policy would now not only offer a referendum on the Brexit deal when it is hammered out, but also promise that on the ballot would be the option of “remaining in the EU”.

But he insisted the position was not about disrespecting the outcome of the referendum.

“Any MP who talks about frustrating the will of the electorate by blocking Brexit in the House of Commons – that would be wrong ... we shouldn’t be sticking two fingers up at the people, that would be a disgrace,” he said.

“Calling for an immediate second referendum because you don’t like the result of the first, I can understand the temptation, [but] that is wrong.”

But he argued while the 52% had voted clearly against something, they had not been given anything to vote for, pointing out that Britain’s relationship with the EU could be modelled on a large number of possibilities “ranging from Norway, to North Korea, and all the points in between”.

Farron pointed out that it was not yet clear whether European countries would allow tariff free access to the single market alongside restrictions on immigration.

“I’d be surprised,” he said, adding: “It would be a travesty if the British government imposed upon the United Kingdom a relationship with Europe they had not voted for … So the deal should be put to the people and as part of that deal remaining in the EU should be on that ballot paper.”

Source: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/26/tim-farron-theresa-may-did-nothing-to-prevent-brexit

With Labour currently going full socialist, if left-leaning folk could pay more attention to the Lib Dems, that would be fantastic.
 

Zaph

Member
But isn't that the fundamental problem - we can't really give people an accurate look at the complete Brexit deal without first going through with it? The US trade guy basically said they need to see the UK's European standing before working on a deal. It's a fantasy to assume we can check if the grass is greener without first making the journey.

To further Blair's house analogy - we have to first set fire to our existing home before looking around the new one.

So yeah, a new referendum with "accept this deal" or "remain in the eu" sounds great, but is completely unrealistic because the Brexiters will point out the deal isn't the full picture (and for once, they won't be lying).
 

Hyams

Member
But isn't that the fundamental problem - we can't really give people an accurate look at the complete Brexit deal without first going through with it? The US trade guy basically said they need to see the UK's European standing before working on a deal. It's a fantasy to assume we can check if the grass is greener without first making the journey.

To further Blair's house analogy - we have to first set fire to our existing home before looking around the new one.

So yeah, a new referendum with "accept this deal" or "remain in the eu" sounds great, but is completely unrealistic because the Brexiters will point out the deal isn't the full picture (and for once, they won't be lying).

Whilst undeniable, is this still not an improvement over the previous referendum? It'll allow for a tad more nuance if the options are something like:

- Accept deal we've hammered out so far (eg. EEA with free movement of people intact)
- Reject deal and go for 'hard Brexit' with no single market access
- Remain in EU

Yes, we still won't have the full picture, but we didn't even have a rudimentary sketch to go by for the last referendum.
 

Lime

Member
Keep in mind that this was *before* Brexit.

Britain has suffered a bigger fall in real wages since the financial crisis than any other advanced country apart from Greece, research shows.

A report by the TUC, published on Wednesday, shows that real earnings have declined more than 10% since the credit crunch began in 2007, leaving the UK equal bottom in a league table of wages growth.

Using data from the OECD’s recent employment outlook, the TUC found that over the same 2007-2015 period, real wages grew in Poland by 23%, in Germany by 14%, and in France by 11%. Across the OECD, real wages increased by an average of 6.7%.

The TUC found that between 2007 and 2015 in the UK, real wages – income from work adjusted for inflation – fell by 10.4%. That drop was equalled only by Greece in a list of 29 countries in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

The UK, Greece and Portugal were the only three OECD countries that saw real wages fall.

The TUC general secretary, Frances O’Grady, who was a vocal backer of the campaign to remain in the EU, said the figures highlighted the strains on household finances even before the vote for Brexit.

“Wages fell off the cliff after the financial crisis, and have barely begun to recover,” she said. “People cannot afford another hit to their pay packets. Working people must not foot the bill for a Brexit downturn in the way they did for the bankers’ crash.”

Earnings have been rising faster than prices since the sharp drop in inflation caused by the collapse in oil prices two years ago, but the TUC warned that households risked a fresh squeeze on their spending power after the vote to leave the EU unless the new government stepped up investment to create better-paid jobs.

The Treasury said the TUC study did not fully reflect living standards, which were also affected by changes to taxes and benefits. It added that the number of people in work had been rising and was above the levels of early 2008, when the economy entered its longest and deepest postwar recession.

“This analysis ignores the point that following the great recession the UK employment rate has grown more than any G7 country, living standards have reached their highest level and wages continue to rise faster than prices – and will be helped by the new national living wage.”

However, the Treasury added: “There is more to do to build an economy and country that works for everyone not just a privileged few, and we are determined to do exactly that.”

The Institute for Fiscal Studies, which specialises in analysing living standards, said the prolonged period of depressed earnings had been one of the features that made both the recession of 2008-09 and the period since unusual.

Rob Joyce, an IFS researcher, said: “It is not just unusual in international terms but also unusual historically for the UK. Real wages have fallen and haven’t recovered. That’s striking.”

O’Grady said the government needed to take action to boost jobs and wages: “This analysis shows why the government needs to invest in large infrastructure projects to create more decent, well-paid jobs. Other countries have shown that it is possible to increase employment and living standards at the same time.”

The UK’s relatively poor performance on wage growth was highlighted by the OECD in its annual employment report this month. Because of a squeeze since the global financial crisis, real hourly wages were more than 25% below where they would have been if wage growth had continued at the rate observed during 2000-07, the thinktank found.

The Paris-based thinktank said that more widely, across its 34 member countries employment had almost recovered to pre-crisis levels but weak wage growth had blighted living standards.

The pressure on UK households from weak wage growth and insecure work has also been highlighted by the Bank of England’s chief economist.

Calling for a big package of measures to support the UK’s post-Brexit economy in a speech last month, Andy Haldane also explored why the recovery had not been felt by everyone. He concluded “the majority of UK households have faced a lost decade of income” as he noted that half of all UK households have seen no material recovery in their real disposable incomes since around 2005.

While wages in the UK have faltered, ministers have sought to instead highlight rising employment. But the TUC analysis found that although the UK employment rate had increased since the economic crisis, Germany, Hungary and Poland had increased employment rates more, while raising real wages at the same time.

Conor D’Arcy, policy analyst for the Resolution Foundation thinktank said: “The UK experienced the most prolonged pay squeeze in over a century in wake of the financial crisis, with young people feeling the biggest pay squeeze of all. While pay has started to recover in recent years – boosted by historically low inflation – post-Brexit uncertainty is expected to put this much-needed recovery on hold.

“Policies like the national living wage will boost pay for the very lowest earners but Britain will need to raise its game on productivity – and ensure those gains feed through into pay packets – if we’re to see stronger wage growth across the workforce.”

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2...eece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
 

kmag

Member

As I said upthread. If you're out the EU, you're out the Customs Union. EEA countries are out the customs union, as is Turkey (it's customs union is really nothing of the sort, as there are state of origin rules and only goods are covered by freedom of movement, it does however apply the common external tariff)

There are upsides and negatives of being in a custom union. Downsides, your ability to broker external trade deals is greatly impinged (it's basically gone), upside your goods don't have pay custom fees and have to satisfy origin standards to sell into the single market.

Custom barriers aren't insurmountable but it puts UK companies at a competitive disadvantage when they try to sell into the EU. It'll also put the supply chain under pressure, as it makes JIT very difficult not to mention more costly.
 
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