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[PuppetSlave]

The reason I despise the referendum is that it's like having a general election based on "Keep the government" or "get a new government", instead of a decision based on what party should actually govern (or which candidate should represent the local area, if we're being pedantic).

"Tory" vs "Not Tory" would be a landslide win for the "Not Tory" voters.
However, just like the EU debate, it would be meaningless.
Who actually governs? Labour and UKIP are miles apart despite being "Not Tory", so obviously we don't just add all the other parties together to create a "Not Tory" decision.
To follow some of the Brexiteers, we should first vote for "Not Tory" and then, maybe have a runoff between Labour and UKIP to decide who actually rules.
That's why the government typically get elected on around a third of the vote and almost never have an actual majority.

That's the situation we're in with Brexit. We've decided that the majority of people dislike the status quo. That's nice, but it doesn't mean that a majority, or even the largest minority, support a particular change to the status quo.
Boris and UKIP are miles apart in their Brexit strategies, so why should we count their "Not EU" votes together?

If we leave the EU, it will be following a strategy that the majority of people oppose and it will almost certainly be a strategy that is less popular than the Remain status quo.

---
Oh, and Fox is a complete fucking idiot. Let's abandon free trade in goods right now!
He's basically calling for us to unilaterally withdraw from the EU, since there's no other way of pulling out of the customs union.

Huh, haven't thought of it like that but that makes a lot of sense. Great post!

 

[Acorn]

Aye. It struck me that the fact Cameron could stand at his final PMQs and still pin so much stuff on 'the last Labour government', years after the fact and just after his own, far greater, actually his fault political catastrophe, shows just how effective it's been.

Definitely but Cameron is going to be remembered in history books as the 21st century Chamberlain(who actually was only reflecting the anti war mood of the public at the time but y'know, "History will be kind to me for I intend to write it" etc) in horrificly dumb decisions. Gives me some solace in these batshit times.

Edit put atlee when i meant Chamberlain...*cough*

 

[kmag]

Good news about GsK and the GDP figures from Q2!

More graphs

 

[Camp Freddie]

I mean, that tweet came from the political editor of The Sun.

I guess we'll be getting "Barmy Barnier" to reboot all their old "Up Yours Delors" stories.

He's an interesting choice with his previous pro-British views on Eurozone banking. His view that the banking passport is inextricably linked to the single market might bite Davis in the arse though.
I expect he'd come down very firmly on tying the banking passport to the 4 freedoms in any EU-to-EEA exit.

 

[Joni]

I guess we'll be getting "Barmy Barnier" to reboot all their old "Up Yours Delors" stories.

He's an interesting choice with his previous pro-British views on Eurozone banking. His view that the banking passport is inextricably linked to the single market might bite Davis in the arse though.
I expect he'd come down very firmly on tying the banking passport to the 4 freedoms in any EU-to-EEA exit.

I'm guessing that any EEA deal with the passport without a significant raise in the UK contribution would get shot down quickly by the countries that want to steal the City.

 

[Acorn]

I'm guessing that any EEA deal with the passport without a significant raise in the UK contribution would get shot down quickly by the countries that want to steal the City.

Depends, I think Merkel would temper it from going too high (it's going up we all know that regardless). France would be the issue imo.

 

[twobear]

Definitely but Cameron is going to be remembered in history books as the 21st century Atlee (who actually was only reflecting the anti war mood of the public at the time but y'know, "History will be kind to me for I intend to write it" etc) in horrificly dumb decisions. Gives me some solace in these batshit times.

 

[Xando]

Depends, I think Merkel would temper it from going too high (it's going up we all know that regardless). France would be the issue imo.

If you guys want to keep the financial passport it will be expensive as fuck.
Pretty much every EU country (including germany) want to get the financial services. Not even sure it's up for you guys to keep or if it will be a no go from the start

 

[Acorn]

D'oh meant Chamberlain

 

[Royal_Phalanx]

If you guys want to keep the financial passport it will be expensive as fuck.
Pretty much every EU country (including germany) want to get the financial services. Not even sure it's up for you guys to keep or if it will be a no go from the start

No passport and limited free movement, or passport and free movement will probably be on the table.

 

[El Topo]

Depends, I think Merkel would temper it from going too high (it's going up we all know that regardless). France would be the issue imo.

While I would agree in principle, keep in mind that Merkel is under a lot of political pressure and that there will be elections in Germany next year. I'm also not sure how countries like Greece would take a soft stance.

 

[kmag]

CBI's retail survey for July is out and it's absolute dire. Worse performance since Jan 2012.

Retailers:

24% of retailers said that sales volumes were up in July compared with a year earlier, while 38% said they were down, giving a rounded balance of -14%. This followed modest growth in the previous month (+4%). Sales growth is set to fall further in the year to August (-12%).

20% of retailers reported sales volumes to be good for the time of year, with 27% reporting them to be poor, giving a rounded balance of -8%, somewhat below the long-run average of -1%.

9% of retailers placed more orders with suppliers than they did a year ago, and 42% placed fewer, giving a rounded balance of -34%. Orders are predicted to fall further next month (-24%, the weakest expectations since September 2009).

A number of sub-sectors saw reduced sales volumes: particularly grocers (-30%) and the furniture and carpets sector (-90%). But sales increased for non-specialised goods (+52%) and footwear and leather (+44%).

Growth in the volume of internet sales slowed in the year to July (balance of +23%, following +38% in June). The pace of growth dipped well below its long run average (+48%). Internet sales growth is set to remain fairly moderate in August (+29%).

Wholesalers:

20% of wholesalers reported sales volumes to be up on last year and 40% said they were down, giving a balance of -20%. Wholesalers expect sales to drop further in August 2016 (-24%)

Motor trades:

33% of motor traders reported that sales volumes were up on a year ago, while 12% said they were down, giving a balance of +21%, the same as in June, but down from a recent peak of +84% in March. Sales are expected to fall in August (-10%).

 

[twobear]

D'oh meant Chamberlain

Thanks for clarifying, I was starting to cough up blood at the thought that someone would put Attlee on the same level as fucking David Cameron.

 

[Acorn]

Thanks for clarifying, I was starting to cough up blood at the thought that someone would put Attlee on the same level as fucking David Cameron.

Quite embarrassing considering I'm a socialist heh.

 

[Acorn]

While I would agree in principle, keep in mind that Merkel is under a lot of political pressure and that there will be elections in Germany next year.

True but I think May is cognizant of that, one of the many reasons it's getting kicked way into the long grass.

 

[Hyams]

I can see why remainers would love a 3 way vote that splits the leave vote in 2 and allows remain to win with less than 1/2 of the votes but you wont be getting that. Well maybe if the lib dems/smith lab somehow win power and want to rig the vote I guess it could happen but that seems somewhat unlikely at this point for all sorts of reasons.

I envision an AV system with voters choosing a first and (optional) second preference. This will allow nuance that wasn't available in the previous referendum, and should better represent the will of people.

Alternatively, you could set a requirement that at least 50% of votes need to go to Remain to undo the previous referendum.

 

[Toytown Assassin]

I envision an AV system with voters choosing a first and (optional) second preference. This will allow nuance that wasn't available in the previous referendum, and should better represent the will of people.

Alternatively, you could set a requirement that at least 50% of votes need to go to Remain to undo the previous referendum.

I don't like AV. Partly because people often don't use the transfers but mostly because the winner can be determined almost at random based on the order of elimination as the final losers transfers are totally ignored.

For example in your EU vote you could have the 2 leave options on roughly 30% each and remain on 40%. If the total leave option gets knocked out 1st you can be sure that all of those votes will transfer to EEA as it's at least some form of leave so that would win 60-40. If EEA gets knocked out 1st you could see a more split transfer and could get a narrow remain win because all the transfer votes from full out to EEA are thrown out. Bloody terrible system. Some form of weighted voting would be better if you must have multiple options but if you really want to stay then another vote on just that is the best solution once the deal is done.

Just hope Smith wins the labour leadership vote then vote labour at the next election and you will get your vote if they win.

 

[Hyams]

I don't like AV. Partly because people often don't use the transfers but mostly because the winner can be determined almost at random based on the order of elimination as the final losers transfers are totally ignored.

For example in your EU vote you could have the 2 leave options on roughly 30% each and remain on 40%. If the total leave option gets knocked out 1st you can be sure that all of those votes will transfer to EEA as it's at least some form of leave so that would win 60-40. If EEA gets knocked out 1st you could see a more split transfer and could get a narrow remain win because all the transfer votes from full out to EEA are thrown out. Bloody terrible system. Some form of weighted voting would be better if you must have multiple options but if you really want to stay then another vote on just that is the best solution once the deal is done.

Just hope Smith wins the labour leadership vote then vote labour at the next election and you will get your vote if they win.

Alas, I live in a safe Tory constituency with UKIP in second place. My GE vote means fuck all.

 

[Toytown Assassin]

Alas, I live in a safe Tory constituency with UKIP in second place. My GE vote means fuck all.

Yeah FPTP sucks. I'm in a safe tory seat too but you could always campaign for labour in the nearest marginal seat if the issue means enough to you.

 

[le-seb]

Junker nominated Michel Barnier - former European Commissioner for Internal Market and Services - to manage Brexit on EU's behalf.

Rough translation from the Liberation article mentioning it:

For Barnier it's out of question to give away EU's interests to please a country that shot itself in the foot. According to our informations, he reckons there'll be two successive negotiations to lead: first, in the coming two years, breaking up the links between London and the Union, and only after, negotiating a new status.

Barnier is not known for its great sense of humor, and was one of the City's worst nightmares during its stay at the IMS commission.
He also doesn't speak English very well.
Junker is such a joker.

 

[Theonik]

Junker nominated Michel Barnier - former European Commissioner for Internal Market and Services - to manage Brexit on EU's behalf.

Rough translation from the Liberation article mentioning it:


Barnier is not known for its great sense of humor, and was one of the City's worst nightmares during its stay at the IMS commission.
He also doesn't speak English very well.
Junker is such a joker.

He's returning the favour.

 

[EmiPrime]

Anything less than retaining the banking passport, not having to make contributions, being allowed to have restrictions on freedom of movement and retaining access to the single market is "punishing" the UK and a "declaration of war".

The EU has to appoint weak negotiators who will roll over and give the UK everything it wants with no concessions because German cars and because as Farage says, "they need us more than we need them". It is known.

 

[kmag]

Lloyds doubling their high street bank closures due to Brexit uncertainty, an additional 3000 jobs will go.

"Following the EU referendum the outlook for the UK economy is uncertain and, while the precise impact is dependent upon a number of factors including EU negotiations and political and economic events, a deceleration of growth seems likely. The UK, however, enters this period of uncertainty from a position of strength, following continued private sector deleveraging, significantly improved mortgage affordability and low levels of unemployment,”

 

[neorej]

Lloyds doubling their high street bank closures due to Brexit uncertainty, an additional 3000 jobs will go.

and people are still claiming that Brexit was a victory for the people. FFS.

 

[anonymous_abc]

Lloyds doubling their high street bank closures due to Brexit uncertainty, an additional 3000 jobs will go.

and people are still claiming that Brexit was a victory for the people. FFS.

To be fair, Brexit is an extremely easy scapegoat to justify all sorts of shitty things they might have had planed anyway...

 

[Bananajama]

High Street branches have been closing long before Brexit - it's just an easy excuse

You just need one or two in each Large Town or City and that's it.

Not in every tom dick and harry village like there was/is

 

[Hasney]

High Street branches have been closing long before Brexit - it's just an easy excuse

You just need one or two in each Large Town or City and that's it.

Not in every tom dick and harry village like there was/is

Like Lloyds said, they were already planning to close branches. This has just doubled it so it's probably not an excuse.

 

[pswii60]

To be fair, Brexit is an extremely easy scapegoat to justify all sorts of shitty things they might have had planed anyway...

Exactly my thought on this one, Brexit is just a great excuse for Lloyds on this occasion. And I see it in my job, Brexit being used as an excuse now for any bad news whatsoever, eg low sales numbers or losing a project to a competitor.

As online banking continues to grow, the banks are looking for any excuse to close as many branches as possible. The only reason they haven't previously is due to potential reputational damage - it's the older generation that is mostly affected by branch closures.

The only time I ever visit a branch is to pay in a cheque, and that's only due to older relatives living in the past sending me cheques as gift money.

 

[tomtom94]

Banks screwing people over? Who could have possibly seen that coming?

 

[Bananajama]

Like Lloyds said, they were already planning to close branches. This has just doubled it so it's probably not an excuse.

Accelerated planned closures would probably be a far more accurate wording.

Pinning it on Brexit helps shift blame from them to Brexit though

 

[kmag]

High Street branches have been closing long before Brexit - it's just an easy excuse

You just need one or two in each Large Town or City and that's it.

Not in every tom dick and harry village like there was/is

They'd already announced a closure program this year (in March, with backoffice redundancies as part of that program announced in April). Normally companies like to take their medicine all at once.

 

[Hasney]

Accelerated planned closures would probably be a far more accurate wording.

Pinning it on Brexit helps shift blame from them to Brexit though

Nah, they wouldn't take the double share price hit unless they had to. It's too close to the original announcement of closures.

 

[Bananajama]

Nah, they wouldn't take the double share price hit unless they had to. It's too close to the original announcement of closures.

A minor dip - hardly June 23rd dip. And easily recovered on next results.

Sorry - I'm just hella skeptical of banks and believe they had this in the pipeline already. And it's just a great excuse to speed up money saving plans for a smaller cost base

 

[Ullus]

Could someone link me a good write-up of what has changed since the vote?
Haven't kept up for the last couple of weeks.

 

[Hasney]

Could someone link me a good write-up of what has changed since the vote?
Haven't kept up for the last couple of weeks.

Sorry man, even if I attempted that it would go over the text limit. The OP has most of the events that happened immediately after the vote, then May got in power and Boris Johnson became foreign secretary. Shit was moving so fast it was hard to keep up.

 

[phisheep]

As online banking continues to grow, the banks are looking for any excuse to close as many branches as possible. The only reason they haven't previously is due to potential reputational damage - it's the older generation that is mostly affected by branch closures.

No it's not. It is cash-heavy small businesses.

I need to pay in cash to the bank every day or two to keep the business afloat while working 6 days a week. Not easy to get to a bank that's not in walking distance of the business.

 

[anonymous_abc]

Could someone link me a good write-up of what has changed since the vote?
Haven't kept up for the last couple of weeks.

Nothing of consequence, the UK is no step closer to brexit than it was a month ago.

 

[Hasney]

Nothing of consequence, the UK is no step closer to brexit than it was a month ago.

Well it depends on how it's looked at. In terms of actually leaving the EU, you're right. in terms of events that have happened on the back of the vote, shits been going down.

 

[Hyams]

Double post. See below.

 

[Hyams]

As a Lloyds employee, I'm feeling a tad demoralised today.

There were plenty of job cuts lined up already, and they've never had an issue with saying why the cuts are happening, so I have no doubt Brexit is a large driver behind the announcement this morning.

 

[anonymous_abc]

Well it depends on how it's looked at. In terms of actually leaving the EU, you're right. in terms of events that have happened on the back of the vote, shits been going down.

Oh for sure! I still haven't gotten over Boris as foreign secretary...

As a Lloyds employee, I'm feeling a tad demoralised today.

There were plenty of job cuts lined up already, and they've never had an issue with saying why the cuts are happening, so I have no doubt Brexit is a large driver behind the announcement today.

Sorry to hear that, hope you land on your feet.

 

[accel]

Continuing the trend of things not going as planned:

"Brexit: Article 50 was never actually meant to be used, says its author

Giuliano Amato, a former prime minister of Italy, who later worked with the European Commission, helped draft the European Constitution, which became the Lisbon Treaty.

He said he had written the now infamous Article 50 but that it was largely for show.

[...]"

via The Independent

By the way, he did not write it.

The clause goes back to Spinelli's draft of the Treaty of the European Union from 1983. In the Convention on the Future of Europe, the article (which was originally 46, not 50) was submitted by the Presidency. It has not been written by any single individual, and the authorship was not credited to anyone either.

See this, for example:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2918161.stm

Sum total, this "I wrote the article so I know" is BS. He didn't write it.

 

[Chinner]

A further 3k job losses has been announced at Lloyds.

 

[Ucchedavāda]

Sum total, this "I wrote the article so I know" is BS. He didn't write it.

Cheers, thanks for the correction.

 

[SporeCrawler]

Anything less than retaining the banking passport, not having to make contributions, being allowed to have restrictions on freedom of movement and retaining access to the single market is "punishing" the UK and a "declaration of war".

The EU has to appoint weak negotiators who will roll over and give the UK everything it wants with no concessions because German cars and because as Farage says, "they need us more than we need them". It is known.

okay so will UK really wage a full out war against EU? I hear UK has nukes but France has them too.

 

[Linkstrikesback]

okay so will UK really wage a full out war against EU? I hear UK has nukes but France has them too.

Our politicians wouldn't be stupid enough to declare war on the EU, no.

(Then again. Two years ago I would have said they wouldn't have been foolish enough to have a referendum on EU membership...)

 

[kmag]

By the way, he did not write it.

The clause goes back to Spinelli's draft of the Treaty of the European Union from 1983. In the Convention on the Future of Europe, the article (which was originally 46, not 50) was submitted by the Presidency. It has not been written by any single individual, and the authorship was not credited to anyone either.

See this, for example:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2918161.stm

Sum total, this "I wrote the article so I know" is BS. He didn't write it.

Actually France first unsuccessfully suggested an exit clause in the Treaty of Rome. Germany proposed one in 1957 which failed, then you had the draft Spinelli constitution in 1984 which failed, and another proposal from assorted reformers in 1996.which also failed.

but not all proposed exit clauses were created equally, and the 262 words which make up Article 50 are a 2003 invention. If credit if any is due is probably split between the folks who were doing the actual drafting under John Kerr who were working under Valéry Giscard d’Estaing’s Praesidum of which Giuliano Amato was a member.

Article 46 which later became Article 50 by the end of the process was developed by this Praesidum. Both John Kerr and Amato have claimed authorship, although the two did work pretty closely together.

The forum’s steering group will publish details of the controversial proposal tomorrow (4 April).

Under Article 46 of the constitution being drafted by Valéry Giscard d’Estaing’s forum, a state will be able to withdraw from the Union within two years, even if no agreement is reached by the rest of the member states on the divorce terms.

At present there are no such provisions in the treaties to allow a state to leave the Union.

The plan is strongly opposed by the European Commission: it fears a voluntary ‘exit clause’ could result in the political equivalent of a game of ‘dare’.

In the words of one senior Commission official, countries could threaten to leave “as a blackmail against their fellows” in order to obtain concessions in negotiations.

The risk of such secessions would weaken and complicate the Union, he added.

Commissioners also fear Eurosceptic member states could take advantage of the clause.

For instance, they might leave on the basis that they would still enjoy the economic benefits of remaining in the European Economic Area without having to fork out for some of the more burdensome membership obligations.

http://www.politico.eu/article/giscard-forum-set-to-unveil-controversial-eu-exit-clause/

 

[VaeVictis]

Bloomberg is starting to keep a list of the impact of Brexit on Business :

The U.K.'s vote to leave the European Union has buffeted companies in Britain and beyond. Some have warned of earnings hits, possible headquarters moves, or cost cuts linked to the referendum, while others have put deals on hold. A few have reported possible benefits, too.

We're tracking Brexit by following earnings, news reports, and public statements. We’ll add more companies as news emerges, and you can e-mail us if you think we’ve missed anything.

 

[CyclopsRock]

kmag never ceases to amaze me with his incredibly detailed knowledge of the utterly uninteresting and esoteric. And I don't mean that as an insult!

 

[accel]

Actually ...

Yes, and the title of the news piece should be:

"Brexit: Article 50 was never actually meant to be used, says one of the persons who worked on the adaptation of the article from prior work into EC"

But obviously that wouldn't be able to convey the message "I am the author so I will tell you all how it is" all that well.