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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM

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S

StayDead

Member
My last bastion of hope is that Teresa May isn't as stupid as she's acting and will actually somehow not fuck this up majorly...

ah who am I kidding. We're screwed.
 
T

TimmmV

Member
Article 50 |OT| SeppukEU

phisheep said:
Now, I've got considerable sympathy with non-UK EU citizens resident here. But everybody is going to be effected by Brexit one way or another in ways we can't yet fully anticipate, and I don't see why this particular group should get a free pass when the rest of us don't.
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Because we didn't vote for this shit, and are the only group with any kind of risk of losing the right to continue working/living here.

Yes, this is going to suck for everyone, but people with British citizenships have 0 risk of being told they will have to leave. This was previously the case for EU citizens and will be for at least the next 2 years, but at the moment no one seems to be prepared to guarantee that beyond then. So its not really a "free pass" considering that it's a risk that only EU migrants are exposed to
 
P

Pixieking

Banned
TimmmV said:
Article 50 |OT| SeppukEU



Because we didn't vote for this shit, and are the only group with any kind of risk of losing the right to continue working/living here.

Yes, this is going to suck for everyone, but people with British citizenships have 0 risk of being told they will have to leave. This was previously the case for EU citizens and will be for at least the next 2 years, but at the moment no one seems to be prepared to guarantee that beyond then. So its not really a "free pass" considering that it's a risk that only EU migrants are exposed to
Click to expand...

To add to that, from a social perspective it sends an unquestionably awful message to non-British citizens. Until now, there's been the somewhat-racist undercurrent of "If the foreigners became more British and assimilated better, things would be all right". The continued use of EU citizens as bargaining chips (whether it's implicit or explicit) shows how specious this argument is. As it stands now, it seems that there is little that any non-British citizen can do that is genuinely good enough to warrant being treated as a valued member of British society.

[Emphasising "seems" there, because whether this statement is true or not - open to argument, I admit - the appearance is of non-British people being treated as second-class citizens, regardless of how long they've been here, or the lives they've built.]
 
U

ultratruman

Banned
The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT3| Britannia Waves the Rules

oti xero said:
May criticizing Scotland and saying "Politics is not a game".

This is the best.
Click to expand...

Comparing her language on Brexit and Indyref2 is next level stuff.
'the most important single market for Scotland is the single market of the United Kingdom'

And the most important single market for the UK is...?
 
L

Lucreto

Member
It wouldn't be in UKs best interests to use Eu citizens as bargaining chips.

The EU can guarantee UK working citizens and send back the dangerous criminals who fled the UK and the retired in Spain.

It would be a brain drain in the UK and a win/win for the UK.
 
R

RedSparrows

Member
ultratruman said:
The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT3| Britannia Waves the Rules



Comparing her language on Brexit and Indyref2 is next level stuff.
'the most important single market for Scotland is the single market of the United Kingdom'

And the most important single market for the UK is...?
Click to expand...

Yebbut sovereignty and forrins especially those Muslim forrins that's why we need to restrict EU migration because uh WILL OF THE PEOPLE

Sorry, childish I know, but UK politics is just relentless self-parody, and in the most depressing way.
 
A

anonymous_abc

Member
I was thinking recently it would be super interesting to have a Brexit - Peep Show style.
hearing what the various people are actually thinking while spewing bullshit could be quite entertaining.
 
F

Faddy

Banned
ultratruman said:
The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT3| Britannia Waves the Rules



Comparing her language on Brexit and Indyref2 is next level stuff.
'the most important single market for Scotland is the single market of the United Kingdom'

And the most important single market for the UK is...?
Click to expand...

Britannia rules the waves but is actually moored at a shabby dock in Edinburgh.

9Evutnf.jpg
 
C

chromatic9

Member
gerg said:
Article 50 |OT| Knowing May, Knowing EU
Click to expand...

Golden.

Veidt said:
You know exactly what I mean. Let's stop the semantics.
The UK is unwilling to start negotiations in morally sound way. This is immoral plain and simple. EU citizens are being devalued and marginalised.
In a way, this shows how desperate the government is; that they are intending on using 3 million people with families and lives here, and who have contributed here, as bargaining chips and effective hostages. It has no other card to play, and it knows. The problem with this card is that the 1 million Britons living in Europe will be treated the exact same way.
Click to expand...

The negotiations are two way and will start soon. It would be silly to guarantee this and that here in the UK and then for the EU to not meet on the same things.
 
H

Huw_Dawson

Member
I think the process is supposed to be something like:

0.Article 50 happens.
1. Agree in principle that Britain will still pay the £50bn bill that we agreed we'd pay.
2. Agree on the fate of expats and EU nationals.
3. Negotiate a new trade deal with the EU
4. Leave.

The ultimate problem is #3 - the deal we'll probably get is not going to be a complete thing by the time year 2 of the negotiations ends. And there's still a lot of unanswered questions about how we're supposed to adopt gigantic tonnes of EU law as actual British law but not use any EU institutions.

On Scotland...

My expectation is that May will turn around and say that she won't pass legislation permitting an independence referendum this parliament to remove that from the table.
 
X

Xando

Member
Huw_Dawson said:
I think the process is supposed to be something like:

0.Article 50 happens.
1. Agree in principle that Britain will still pay the £50bn bill that we agreed we'd pay.
2. Agree on the fate of expats and EU nationals.
3. Negotiate a new trade deal with the EU
4. Leave.

The ultimate problem is #3 - the deal we'll probably get is not going to be a complete thing by the time year 2 of the negotiations ends. And there's still a lot of unanswered questions about how we're supposed to adopt gigantic tonnes of EU law as actual British law but not use any EU institutions.
Click to expand...

I'd say the problem is #1 and #3. With the current tory rhetoric i cannot see how May can accept any deal where the UK has to pay something which in return will be a no go for the EU.

Can definitely see british tabloids force may to walk away at step 1
 
C

cabot

Member
Huw_Dawson said:
On Scotland...

My expectation is that May will turn around and say that she won't pass legislation permitting an independence referendum this parliament to remove that from the table.
Click to expand...

Further frustrating Scotland and the narrative that London doesn't care about what we think will grow stronger, something the SNP will easily take advantage of.


Best way for May to play the referendum is to allow it, but push it to after the a50 timeline. Sturgeon's already hinted at letting that happen. Then the onus is on her to avoid a terrible deal.


This rumour that May wants to push it until SNP get a Holyrood majority in 2021 is ridiculous. Our electoral system is designed to minimise majorities.
 
T

theaface

Member
Xando said:
I'd say the problem is #1 and #3. With the current tory rhetoric i cannot see how May can accept any deal where the UK has to pay something which in return will be a no go for the EU.

Can definitely see british tabloids force may to walk away at step 1
Click to expand...

100%. Everything I've seen and heard from May since she became PM appears to be tailored towards placating the press and appealing to the lowest common denominator.

I firmly believe that had she not dithered for so long with 'Brexit means Brexit', the single market in/out conversation wouldn't have risen to fever pitch like it did and she could've delivered a soft Brexit without too severe of a backlash. As it was, she allowed the speculation to grown out of hand and responded in the only way she thought she could to please the Murdoch rags.

Her firm, combative tone up until now (which has never felt anything more than a brave face to mask real weakness) simply won't allow her to appear to concede on something like a £50bn bill. It's a big number. It's easy to look back on the referendum and see how a little numerical factoid, true or not (£350m a week anyone?), can disproportionally skew the narrative.
 
K

kmag

Member
cabot said:
Further frustrating Scotland and the narrative that London doesn't care about what we think will grow stronger, something the SNP will easily take advantage of.


Best way for May to play the referendum is to allow it, but push it to after the a50 timeline. Sturgeon's already hinted at letting that happen. Then the onus is on her to avoid a terrible deal.


This rumour that May wants to push it until SNP get a Holyrood majority in 2021 is ridiculous. Our electoral system is designed to minimise majorities.
Click to expand...

The last part is pretty important. Despite the fevered nonsense of EleventhHourSuperpower about the decline of the SNP in the last Scottish elections (they lost their majority don't you know). Their constituency total vote share and seat number increased, the modified D'Hondt system used in Scottish elections 'rewards' constituency success by reducing the corrosponding regional list chances (to make the system proportional). So if you won all eight constituency seats in a region you'd need a ridiculous amount of regional list votes to gain a single list seat.

There's a very simple work though of the concept for school kids here.
http://www.parliament.scot/Educatio...esources/AMS_Teacher_Read_Through_Version.pdf

but the main part of the workthrough is the final table where you can see the interplay between constituency success and inability to pick up list seats.

xcJKQVY.png


The SNP gaining a majority with just under 45.4% of the constituency vote and 44% of the regional vote in 2011 was a quirk of mathematics and luck (they basically hit a sweet spot where their constituency success was small enough to allow them to gain list votes). But ultimately the split between the number of constituencies MSP and list MSP is designed to prevent a single party majority. Of course there's more constituency seats (73) than regional seats (56) so I suppose if you won 80% of constituencies you could gain an overall majority of one that way
 
C

cabot

Member
The only sensible thing I've heard Davis say in recent times is that we will still need immigration after Brexit.

Everything else is wildly pie in the sky thinking.
 
Halph n Halph

Halph n Halph

Member
Xando said:
Yeah i get that but by leaving they'll have improved access with or without a trade deal



Interesting. Haven't heard of them. Just saw it RTed on twitter
Click to expand...
I think he is making two separate points in one tweet.
If we don't get a deal we have a plan ( tax haven probably)
And regardless of a deal we have the freedom to make our own trade deals with Row.
 
C

cabot

Member
I'm sure Boris will come out and say 'Bish bash bosh old chap, of course we've done an assessment, the finest of assessments! Top five ever assessments!'


Meanwhile, Liam Fox will be a bit flustered and unsure, 'When one assesses, what does that entail?'


The Three Brexiteers are truly wonderous people.
 
X

Xando

Member
Funky Papa said:
Maybe the current strategy is to decimate the EU's negotiating ranks with deadly fits of laughter/cringe.
Click to expand...

I mean it's pretty obvious their "no deal is better than bad deal" bluff is gonna get called by the EU. Kinda reminds me of Greece in 2015. Only question is if May is gonna blink like Tsipras or does she follow through due to domnestic pressure by the Mail and Sun crowd
 
V

Vivalaraza

Member
Pretty sure there has been some kind of assessment. How robust it is I don't know but departments have definitely been asked what the impact of no deal would be.
 
U

Uzzy

Member
Osborne and the Treasury put one out during the referendum campaign. It was dismissed as fear mongering because obviously no one would be silly enough to crash out to WTO rules.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
cabot said:
I'm sure Boris will come out and say 'Bish bash bosh old chap, of course we've done an assessment, the finest of assessments! Top five ever assessments!'


Meanwhile, Liam Fox will be a bit flustered and unsure, 'When one assesses, what does that entail?'


The Three Brexiteers are truly wonderous people.
Click to expand...

Davis gives no information, Boris gives false information, and Fox gives confused information. It's the full medley of shite.
 
K

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
chadskin said:
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/841944400926236673

Okay then.
Click to expand...

I doubt this. For how much incompetence the UK Government shows at highest levels I think there are also very competent people at the lower levels of it and I could bet those people ran at least several basic macroeconomic scenarios. Also I can bet that BoE has a decent analysis on it.

So what this statement says in my opinion is that they can't show the assessments because they don't paint the image they want to sell.
 
C

chromatic9

Member
Toyota to invest £240m in UK plant at Burnaston
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39289269

Johan van Zyl, chief executive of Toyota Motor Europe, said the investment showed that the company was doing all it could to make Burnaston more competitive.

However, he warned: "Continued tariff-and-barrier free market access between the UK and Europe that is predictable and uncomplicated will be vital for future success.
Click to expand...

I don't see how a tariff and barrier free market is going to happen bar something crazy happening. Guess they can always cancel it in a few months time when things aren't looking pretty good. They say most of the cars made go to Europe.
 
H

Huw_Dawson

Member
It is possible to arrange a limited deal that covers, say, only the car industry... If May can get a sign off from every other member state.

May predictably saying no to IndyRef2 as it stands. Not sure she can stop the Scottish Government if they really want one though.
 
K

Kabouter

Member
Huw_Dawson said:
It is possible to arrange a limited deal that covers, say, only the car industry... If May can get a sign off from every other member state.

May predictably saying no to IndyRef2 as it stands. Not sure she can stop the Scottish Government if they really want one though.
Click to expand...

Can't imagine IndyRef2 would result in a Scottish departure from the UK tbh
 
S

*Splinter

Member
Android18a said:
"It would be unfair to the people of Scotland that they would be being asked to make a crucial decision without the information they need to make that decision."

Er, ah... a bit like asking the UK to make a crucial decision about leaving the EU in 2016 without the information they need to make that decision?
Click to expand...
Not really. The information for Brexit was there, people just failed to educate themselves (and were outright lied to). Indyref is based in part on what the UK will look like after Brexit, which is an unknown at the moment.

Although that's still a poor excuse to deny the vote.
 
C

cabot

Member
*Splinter said:
Not really. The information for Brexit was there, people just failed to educate themselves (and were outright lied to). Indyref is based in part on what the UK will look like after Brexit, which is an unknown at the moment.

Although that's still a poor excuse to deny the vote.
Click to expand...


we should probably know more by autumn 2018/spring 2019, though with this government you never know anything!


Anyhoo, BBC's Glen Campbell seems to have been told her statement is a rejection of Sturgeon's timeline rather than the referendum itself.
 
K

kmag

Member
cabot said:
we should probably know more by autumn 2018/spring 2019, though with this government you never know anything!


Anyhoo, BBC's Glen Campbell seems to have been told her statement is a rejection of Sturgeon's timeline rather than the referendum itself.
Click to expand...

Which is why Sturgeon was seeking to er hold the referendum in late 2018/2019
 
C

cabot

Member
This whole indyref 2 business is just making me more sad at the current state of affairs with Labour, Sturgeon is applying real pressure to May and she's not really coming out very strong.


If Labour looked half competent they could really inflict damage on this weak government.
 
A

anonymous_abc

Member
lol, the entire piece is gold, I was giggling profusely in the office...
I'm glad to see David Davis 'still hasn't looked into' the economic impact of Brexit

At least campaigners for leaving the EU were honest. Before the referendum, supporters of the Leave campaign like Davis always explained that if we left, they didn’t have the slightest idea what would happen, and even came up with the slogan “nine months after the result we’ll confirm we haven’t looked into it”, which as I recall they put on the side of a bus.

Theresa May has insisted that “no deal is better than a bad deal”, which introduced a philosophical edge to Brexit. Because how can anyone know whether it will be better or worse if we haven’t yet looked into it? It’s like saying you have no idea what’s on the other side of the universe, but whatever it is, it’s better than a donkey.

But Davis went even further, explaining: “You don’t need pieces of paper with a number on it to make an economic assessment.” Of course not, an economic assessment isn’t about numbers. When you apply for a mortgage, the bank asks how much you earn, and you say “a bit”, then the bank manager has a think and says: “In that case you’re allowed to borrow a yellowish amount, that reminds you of the sea.” So you ask: “How much will I have to pay back every month?” and they say: “Come back in nine months, by which time I won’t have looked into it yet.”

Asked whether British citizens will continue, after Brexit, to get free healthcare in the EU, Davis said they probably wouldn’t, but added reassuringly: “I have not looked at that one.”
Click to expand...

This shows the problem Hammond made with his Budget, he gave out exact numbers. He should have said: “The borrowing requirements for the coming year as predicted by the Office of Budget Responsibility are a bit salty and not as soggy as you might think. To this end, National Insurance contributions for the self-employed will be curlier than they have been, and taste of cucumber.” Then he wouldn’t have had to change his mind and look an idiot.
Click to expand...

You can understand how he was caught on the hop, because the campaign for Britain to leave the EU has only been going on for around 40 years, so they’ve hardly had a moment to consider what to do if they got their way.
Click to expand...
 
U

Uzzy

Member
JonnyDBrit said:
So... what happened exactly? May wanted him to no longer associated with members of the House of Commons, or...?
Click to expand...

Heseltine had a few advisory positions with the Government, working on industrial strategy and urban redevelopment. He was fired from those roles after voting in favour of the amendment to the Brexit bill that gave Parliament a 'meaningful vote' on the final deal.
 
J

JonnyDBrit

Member
sammex said:
He was sacked from his position as an advisor to the Gov after he voted against the A50 bill in the house of lords. (well voted to amend it)
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Uzzy said:
Heseltine had a few advisory positions with the Government, working on industrial strategy and urban redevelopment. He was fired from those roles after voting in favour of the amendment to the Brexit bill that gave Parliament a 'meaningful vote' on the final deal.
Click to expand...

Ah, punishing dissent. What a great, unifying spirit the Prime Minister inspires.
 
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