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The UK votes to leave the European Union

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FyreWulff

Member
Clulep_UoAE-gg7.jpg

Not even surprised Palin is one of those people. It's basically the main storyline for all that Left Behind shit (i had to help an aunt.. and she watched that. all. day.)
 
Are those countries actually dying to do deals with the UK?
TBF the UK will remain a large export market.
But it's more on the level of a Singapore or HK, which double as gateways into Asia. Basically it seems pretty self-important to think the world is chomping at thr bit and/or that some sort of special arrangements will be made.

From memory, for example, the renewed US TPA (fast track) expires in two years. And a President Clinton will have to get new authority through Congress.
Maybe I am just grumpy as people keep repeating reduced relevance, but there are other alliances to join and just used APEC as a example.
UK reliance on Europe only came after the EU was created, I dislike this myth they are now going to be weaker forever.
Maybe the UK can join the African Union too. Or ASEAN. :/

You are going to be weaker. That's what was voted for.
 

Steel

Banned
The EU itself doesn't have a trade deal with the US and TTIP is a long way from materialising as the EU is too protectionist and regulated for the US taste.

By the way the UK is the US's fifth biggest export market and overall 7th biggest trading partner http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/top/top1412yr.html

Trade deals take years to work out. The U.S. is currently negotiating with the EU, which is the bigger market than the UK. The EU as a whole is a bigger market for the U.S. than the U.K.

On the subject of protectionism, wasn't one of the reasons to be pro-leave to protect domestic industries? I don't think the new UK is gonna be any better than the EU in that regard.

Do you need this rephrased again?
 
Which was obviously misleading as Obama will soon be gone, yet the people who won't are bending over backwards to acknowledge that what Obama said will not be the case.

You think hilary will do something else than obama on that matter ? or are you waiting for trump to speed things up ?

Whenever president you'll get after obama won't change the US stance over this matter
 

Z3K

Member
Trade deals take years to work out. The U.S. is currently negotiating with the EU, which is the bigger market than the UK. The EU as a whole is a bigger market for the U.S. than the U.K.

On the subject of protectionism, wasn't one of the reasons to be pro-leave to protect domestic industries? I don't think the new UK is gonna be any better than the EU in that regard.

Do you need this rephrased again?

The UK and EU have been trading with the US for years without a "deal", so why has this become a big issue now?
 

dejay

Banned
Trade deals take years to work out. The U.S. is currently negotiating with the EU, which is the bigger market than the UK. The EU as a whole is a bigger market for the U.S. than the U.K.

It's also true that the EU is a vastly more complex entity to deal with than say the UK and it's quite common to be working on multiple agreements at once.

Potentially an agreement could be made relatively quickly between the UK and the US. The US-Australia FTA took maybe five years to implement, although Australia did bend over a little - that and constant involvement in US conflicts is the price we pay for a security arrangement with the US. An economically affected UK may bargain less ardently to fast track an agreement.

Australia is currently working on a FTA with the EU, but I'm sure we'd also favourably look at an AU-UK FTA, considering that our major trading partner within the EU is the UK.

Saying that, nobody's gonna sink considerable resources into this until the UK actually commit to an exit date. The current situation may also stall the TTIP somewhat, especially if the EU destabilises even more.
 
The EU itself doesn't have a trade deal with the US and TTIP is a long way from materialising as the EU is too protectionist and regulated for the US taste.

By the way the UK is the US's fifth biggest export market and overall 7th biggest trading partner http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/top/top1412yr.html

Those lists all have countries listed separately. That's not exactly the rub here. Add up the EU member nations (because that's who we're currently trying to deal with). The UK is just not going to jump those negotiations, and we're definitely not going to do anything to hurt those talks just for the UK. Europe is worth more than the UK.
 

BKK

Member
The US wanted the UK to stay in the EU to counteract a lot of those protectionist forces in the EU. It's the same reason that non-protectionist countries such as The Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark are lamenting the loss of their strongest ally in EU politics.

Well, maybe if the UK can get a good enough deal then Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark etc can consider joining us. Let's call it "EU Lite". Maybe the non-EEA countries could join too. The opposing argument is that if they give the UK too good of a deal then everyone will want to leave, and the EU will collapse, but I think that genie is already out of the bottle. Maybe such a multi-core Europe could save the EU. More Euro-sceptic countries could be in what is essentially a free-trade zone. Core countries could be in Schengen, and inner core countries could aspire for full on political union. I think that the reason that the UK left, and maybe the biggest danger for it's existence is the lack of flexibility. Forcing all countries to the same rules, one size desn't fit all.

Well if it gets to the point where it's no longer political suicide to not leave then they could do that.

What I am hearing is that article 50 is a point of no return. The UK now has time to consider whether or not this deal is beneficial. All I've been hearing is leaving just puts the UK in a slightly worse position than it was before with some immigration controls. Which, as an American, sounds like a lousy deal. And to have "leave" people walking back on the major issues, just hours after the vote, was unexpected.

For their part it seems the EU can't do anything until the UK officially says they want out. They may not like you, but isn't the feeling mutual? Regardless, I get the feeling their sentiment is more that they would actually prefer the UK reconsider and not go through with it, but if you do still want to leave they'll forgo the lube to make a point.

Or maybe burning it down is the right way to deal with the sentiment behind the vote in the first place. Sometimes people need to fall flat on their face to actually get the message.

Invoking article 50 just means that they have two years to negotiate an exit, how beneficial or non-beneficial that is will be down to negotiations. It should be noted that the UK referendum was just advisory, the UK is under no obligation to invoke article 50 until they wish to. Pressure or bullying by EU diplomats to invoke article 50 immediately (or at any time) has no legal basis. Not that following due legal process has ever had priority when it conflicts with the EU's immediate aims.


TBF the UK will remain a large export market.
But it's more on the level of a Singapore or HK, which double as gateways into Asia. Basically it seems pretty self-important to think the world is chomping at thr bit and/or that some sort of special arrangements will be made.

From memory, for example, the renewed US TPA (fast track) expires in two years. And a President Clinton will have to get new authority through Congress.
Maybe the UK can join the African Union too. Or ASEAN. :/

Well, many ASEAN countries are also commonwealth countries, and Australia managed to get a pretty good FTA with ASEAN. I was living in an ASEAN country when the Australian FTA came into affect, it was pretty remarkable for a Westerner in Asia. Overnight so many western goods became massively cheaper, such as wine, cheese etc ... all of them Australian. So having a basic monopoly on the ASEAN market must have been great for Australia (and terrible for UK etc).
 
The UK and EU have been trading with the US for years without a "deal", so why has this become a big issue now?

Because those trades were taxed as heck on both ways ?
Because those taxes could become bigger now that one market could be so small that the bigger one will take advantage of it ?
 

BKK

Member
You think hilary will do something else than obama on that matter ? or are you waiting for trump to speed things up ?

Whenever president you'll get after obama won't change the US stance over this matter

I don't have a view on potential US presidents, just the current and previous ones. Please understand, my criticisms were purely based on a single incident, and weren't meant to be politically partisan.
 

BKK

Member
Because those trades were taxed as heck on both ways ?
Because those taxes could become bigger now that one market could be so small that the bigger one will take advantage of it ?

Not really, we have to follow WTO tarrifs. Actually, taxes are pretty low nowadays, an FTA isn't as big of a saving as it used to be, but it's obviously more beneficial to have one than none.
 

Dr.Acula

Banned
The margin in a country like Japan for a vote about immigration would have been a lot greater than 52 percent against. Ultimately, some countries do vote this way. It was democratic. The result isn't what most of GAF would want, including myself, but it was a free vote on a constitutional matter, and was conducted properly.

Too bad this wasn't a vote about immigration then.
 
I don't have a view on potential US presidents, just the current and previous ones. Please understand, my criticisms were purely based on a single incident, and weren't meant to be politically partisan.

I don't think that poster meant anything partisan. It's just that the most likely person to be President after Obama is Hillary Clinton, and she's basically Obama 3.0 (they share almost all beliefs). So Obama being close to the end of his term doesn't mean that much since his successor will basically do anything he'd do.
 

D i Z

Member
It was certainly perceived that way by a lot of voters...

Let's stop kidding ourselves and pretending that they didn't know exactly what they wanted, but were too stupid to understand what was right in front of their faces. There is no excuse to hide behind here. Definitely not ignorance when the rallying cry from day one was completely about nationalism and racism. This same shit happened when the country called for workers to repair a busted, bombed out country when the populous wouldn't do it themselves. Decades later the constant shitting on hardworking Brits of color continue.


No fucking sympathy to give.
 
I don't have a view on potential US presidents, just the current and previous ones. Please understand, my criticisms were purely based on a single incident, and weren't meant to be politically partisan.
Regarless of who would be in charge , the contents would be the same , that was my point .

Not really, we have to follow WTO tarrifs. Actually, taxes are pretty low nowadays, an FTA isn't as big of a saving as it used to be, but it's obviously more beneficial to have one than none.
Now they are low , i fail to see how this will be the same once the red button is pushed and Uk exits the EU.
Also i was talking from the EU perspective in my answer. Taxes are low only with some goods between US and EU because both had mutual benefits to do so , again this might become an issue because one market ( US or EU ) won't have as many benefits to keep those low for UK.
They have no reason to , unless they get a huge benefit somewhere... and that somewhere is a huge unknow

I mean the whole reason TAFTA exist on paper is to get rid of those restrictions AND taxes ( i insist on the "taxes" part ) .. Those taxes do exist , this is not a pipe dream..
The "taxes are low" argument applies only on specific deals/goods, not on a global scale between EU and the US.
 

Dr.Acula

Banned
I don't think that poster meant anything partisan. It's just that the most likely person to be President after Obama is Hillary Clinton, and she's basically Obama 3.0 (they share almost all beliefs). So Obama being close to the end of his term doesn't mean that much since his successor will basically do anything he'd do.

It depends a lot if the house and senate move to the Dems.

In UK terms think minority vs. majority government. Obama has a minority, in which he can't pass anything without Republican votes -which he can't get. The Dems had control of the house, and a senate with a tenuous super-majority (a 60% control, needed to avoid certain parliamentary stalling tactics) briefly in Obama's first two years -which is how he was able to pass his health care plan. Since then he's been largely hamstrung.
 
I'll echo this. Canada will happily work out a good trade deal with the UK alone, as long as the terms are favourable to Canada as well.

There's a couple of stores in town here that import British stuff like Marmite, marmelade, tartan fabric, etc... I don't think it amounts to much in dollars and pounds.
Funny thing, many of the British import, like HP sauce, are actually made in the EU.
 

Box

Member
Brexit revenge fantasy isn't a good reason for the US to abandon the UK. They're an absolutely irreplaceable ally. Like it or not, we're going to have to learn to live with the Brexit decision and try to make it something positive.
 
Sorry to sound like a dick, but the amount of people celebrating this mess when they aren't a part of it is frankly insulting. I was rooting for you US, to keep that piece of crap Trump out of office for the sake of your country. I didn't ask to be dragged into this the same way you don't want to be dragged into Trumps possible mess. Half the country don't want to either.
 
It depends a lot if the house and senate move to the Dems.

In UK terms think minority vs. majority government. Obama has a minority, in which he can't pass anything without Republican votes -which he can't get. The Dems had control of the house, and a senate with a tenuous super-majority (a 60% control, needed to avoid certain parliamentary stalling tactics) briefly in Obama's first two years -which is how he was able to pass his health care plan. Since then he's been largely hamstrung.

Right, I'm actually American. It's very likely that the Senate goes Dem along with the White House, and while the GOP has been very obstructionist for the last 6 years, it's been hammering them in approval ratings (they're super hated while Obama has a positive rating). This is also 6 years after the 2010 wave elections which brought in the Tea Party, so a bunch of those Senators and Reps will be gone. The GOP that emerges from this election will be inclined to make deals and concede some things to the Dems.
 

Drek

Member
It depends a lot if the house and senate move to the Dems.

In UK terms think minority vs. majority government. Obama has a minority, in which he can't pass anything without Republican votes -which he can't get. The Dems had control of the house, and a senate with a tenuous super-majority (a 60% control, needed to avoid certain parliamentary stalling tactics) briefly in Obama's first two years -which is how he was able to pass his health care plan. Since then he's been largely hamstrung.

Foreign policy, especially trade deals, are still largely within the jurisdiction of the POTUS. Also, the senate is close enough that a Clinton win will likely bring in a Dem controlled senate while also weakening the GOP hold on the house, putting things more in Clinton's control.

That said, even with a President Trump I don't see why the UK should feel very confident about a swift and friendly trade deal being reached. Scotland going back to another exit referendum themselves would be a substantial variable any POTUS would wait for clearer resolution on before acting. If Scotland walked out to re-join the EU that would put he remainder at an even more dramatic disadvantage.

At the same time if a deal is reached with the EU, opening the door for currently UK based multinationals to just jump to the continent or to Ireland for an already existing deal, the value of a UK specific deal could decline substantially.

Canada and Australia will be of comparable economic importance and would likely strike a pretty fair deal with the UK, and quickly, but the U.S. would be in the driver's seat with other more beneficial irons in the fire and a few additional variables needing to be sorted before committing to a deal would be optimal. That isn't a good place for the UK if the notion of this was an expeditious move towards less EU dependence on trade.
 

D i Z

Member
Sorry to sound like a dick, but the amount of people celebrating this mess when they aren't a part of it is frankly insulting. I was rooting for you US, to keep that piece of crap Trump out of office for the sake of your country. I didn't ask to be dragged into this the same way you don't want to be dragged into Trumps possible mess. Half the country don't want to either.

Too many assumptions and frustrations pointed in all of the wrong directions.
 
TBF the UK will remain a large export market.

I'm not sure how to read that. The UK imports more from the EU than it exports to the EU.

The UK has large coal reserves that nobody wants along with declining oil and natural gas resources.

The key drivers of the UK economy are banking, insurance, and business services, things that the EU has no reason to import from the outside.
Manufacturing only accounts for less than 10% of the economic output. These are the things that can still be exported.

Logically, financial services move to the EU and some deal is put in place so that the UK can export its agricultural products which are made by only 2% of the population. In exchange it imports EU products to address the 40% of food needs that is not produced locally without duties since no one will be able to afford them.
 

oti

Banned
I'm not sure how to read that. The UK imports more from the EU than it exports to the EU.

The UK has large coal reserves that nobody wants along with declining oil and natural gas resources.

The key drivers of the UK economy are banking, insurance, and business services, things that the EU has no reason to import from the outside.
Manufacturing only accounts for less than 10% of the economic output. These are the things that can still be exported.

Logically, financial services move to the EU and some deal is put in place so that the UK can export its agricultural products which are made by only 2% of the population. In exchange it imports EU products to address the 40% of food needs that is not produced locally without duties since no one will be able to afford them.

What about DAT cake doe.
 

BKK

Member
It was certainly perceived that way by a lot of voters...

Yes, this was the biggest issue in the referendum. The UK population increased from 60m in 2004 to 64m in 2014, housing and amenities never kept up with the increasing population (a significant proportion of which was due to immigration after the ascension of former Eastern Bloc countries to the EU in 2004).

Working class communities feel worse off due to this. For unskilled workers there is wage stagnation, simple supply and demand. There is no reason to increase lower earner's wages as there is a near inexhaustible supply of cheap labour from far poorer Eastern European countries, this was exacerbated by the enlargement of the EU in 2007 to include the even poorer countries of Romania and Bulgaria.

In addition to this there has been a housing shortage, and the building of new homes has not even kept up with the increase in immigration. Supply and demand. Basic housing has become much more expensive in most major cities, whilst basic wages have remained flat.

Services: Schools, doctors surgeries etc have also not kept up with the increase in population. It has become increasingly difficult for working class people to get their kids a place in the local school, a doctor's appointment etc.

This inexhaustible supply of cheap labour has been great for employers and landlords. They've made a fortune, at the expense of the working class. But that's OK, as the Labour government tells them "immigration is good for the economy". It doesn't seem to matter that all of the economic benefits goes to the rich, at the expense of the poor, increasing the economic divide.

Labour, who used to be the party of the working class, is now run by a metropolitan middle class. They care more about intelectual left wing issues such as Palestine and Syrian Asylum seekers, rather than the lives of the working class voters who elected them to represent them. But that's fine, their Northern bases will never vote Tory, so they can just parachute in one of their left wing Islington coffee slurping intelectuals to a safe northern seat. These people would vote for a cow as long as it had a red rossette on it afterall.

The local working class, without a pay rise in years, and struggling to find homes for their children after an influx of Eastern European workers to their community mention their problems to a Labour man when she happens to chance on him. He politely smiles, and gets back into his car, calling her a bigot, forgetting that his microphone was still broadcasting live.

He apologises, and says that Labour has to listen to it's working class support base. Rinse and repeat for the next few years until another middle class left wing intelectual coffee slurper happens upon a working class estate in the South East of England. Oh look, a council house with England flags hanging out of the window, and a white van in the driveway, how stereotypical! Let me tweet a picture of "the view from Rochester".

She apologises, and they get a new leader .... the working class son of a coal miner ... I joke, of course not. The Islington coffee slurping left wing intelectual Jeremy Corbyn, who says that there should be no upper limit on immigration.

For some reason the working classes voted to leave the EU .... racists!
 

jufonuk

not tag worthy
I didn't want to leave the EU. Still upset by this.
Now so long as I can work feed the family and visit family in France and keep a roof above my head that is all and my wife can hope for.

In the meantime I keep working and saving.
.in the long term I think hard about the possibility of moving to France or another EU area (apply for French passport) need to work out some other issues too.

This may have to happen or after the dust settles instead of being how we were as the UK we still have a certain standard of living. But we aren't as powerful (and with that as arrogant as we once were - The English that is)

Starting to think we will get through this we will be ok.
Change is painful we will have to leave to change.
For all the little Englanders who caused this. Hope you learn hummilty. I can see a backlash coming 48% of us who did not want this will be looking to the core (as in not all of) the ones who stirred this up and went for this.
I doubt the UK will be the UK as it was,
London will no longer hold all the power.

I need to stop panicking I can't keep thinking of the Negatives.

Edit: should have not read silent chiefs post above.
Shit ok moving to France it is then.
 
I've just spent the entire day reading this thread, feeling as close to tears as a grown ass man can be without a death in the family, despondent, worried and real unsure on what on earth I can do next.

I'm not a successful intellectual, I haven't got an established career, I'm not rich, Im not young. More importantly, I'm not white or at least white-looking.

Where on earth can I go and what can I do that will not have me struggling for the rest of my life? I am fully committed to emigration now, but the reality is that anywhere I would go I'd be on the lowest rung of the ladder, lower than the unwanted immigrants in this country (who at least in London are highly edcuated, regardless of what minimum wage jobs they are forced to do)

I sit here and think that maybe if I plan carefully and start learning skills that in demand internationally, I may have a chance. But I work full time in a decent paying, but time consuming job that not only limits what training I can take on, but by its very nature limits my skillset to something that only is relevant in that particular industry at best and that particular company at worst.

The Xenophobic wing of the leave campaign would like nothing more for people like me to piss off and give them their country back, but I feel that this vote has damned the people who would have been willing to leave the UK eventually. I just feel so damn sad. My only positive takeaway from all this is at least, to some degree, I've enjoyed what the good times felt like. The average teenager, especially ones from low income ethic backgrounds won't even experience that.

I really hate what leave voters have done. They haven't just damned their youth, they have damned anyone with ambitions to rise above their station in life. Many will overcome this, but a great many wont. That in itself is a shameful tragedy.
 

Arksy

Member
I've just spent the entire day reading this thread, feeling as close to tears as a grown ass man can be without a death in the family, despondent, worried and real unsure on what on earth I can do next.

I'm not a successful intellectual, I haven't got an established career, I'm not rich, Im not young. More importantly, I'm not white or at least white-looking.

Where on earth can I go and what can I do that will not have me struggling for the rest of my life? I am fully committed to emigration now, but the reality is that anywhere I would go I'd be on the lowest rung of the ladder, lower than the unwanted immigrants in this country (who at least in London are highly edcuated, regardless of what minimum wage jobs they are forced to do)

I sit here and think that maybe if I plan carefully and start learning skills that in demand internationally, I may have a chance. But I work full time in a decent paying, but time consuming job that not only limits what training I can take on, but by its very nature limits my skillset to something that only is relevant in that particular industry at best and that particular company at worst.

The Xenophobic wing of the leave campaign would like nothing more for people like me to piss off and give them their country back, but I feel that this vote has damned the people who would have been willing to leave the UK eventually. I just feel so damn sad. My only positive takeaway from all this is at least, to some degree, I've enjoyed what the good times felt like. The average teenager, especially ones from low income ethic backgrounds won't even experience that.

I really hate what leave voters have done. They haven't just damned their youth, they have damned anyone with ambitions to rise above their station in life. Many will overcome this, but a great many wont. That in itself is a shameful tragedy.

Mind me asking, are you a UK Citizen?
 

Mr Cola

Brothas With Attitude / The Wrong Brotha to Fuck Wit / Die Brotha Die / Brothas in Paris
I've just spent the entire day reading this thread, feeling as close to tears as a grown ass man can be without a death in the family, despondent, worried and real unsure on what on earth I can do next.

I'm not a successful intellectual, I haven't got an established career, I'm not rich, Im not young. More importantly, I'm not white or at least white-looking.

Where on earth can I go and what can I do that will not have me struggling for the rest of my life? I am fully committed to emigration now, but the reality is that anywhere I would go I'd be on the lowest rung of the ladder, lower than the unwanted immigrants in this country (who at least in London are highly edcuated, regardless of what minimum wage jobs they are forced to do)

I sit here and think that maybe if I plan carefully and start learning skills that in demand internationally, I may have a chance. But I work full time in a decent paying, but time consuming job that not only limits what training I can take on, but by its very nature limits my skillset to something that only is relevant in that particular industry at best and that particular company at worst.

The Xenophobic wing of the leave campaign would like nothing more for people like me to piss off and give them their country back, but I feel that this vote has damned the people who would have been willing to leave the UK eventually. I just feel so damn sad. My only positive takeaway from all this is at least, to some degree, I've enjoyed what the good times felt like. The average teenager, especially ones from low income ethic backgrounds won't even experience that.

I really hate what leave voters have done. They haven't just damned their youth, they have damned anyone with ambitions to rise above their station in life. Many will overcome this, but a great many wont. That in itself is a shameful tragedy.

My brother in the space of 2 years left his insurance job (close to minimum wage) took a business course in the US, found a girl, worked his absolute ass off the year he was studying/shadowing there, came back to England, did the same and after 2 years his company sent him to their American office where he now lives and they are getting married.

We are in the EU for at least 2 years, but its more probably 2 1/2-3 years, in that time you can do great great things.

For those of you despondent thats 2 years where things will stay relatively the same in terms of your freedoms to move and work, see it as motivation, its a huge amount of time for someone who is motivated and focused.
 
Mind me asking, are you a UK Citizen?

Yeah. English born. Don't feel like I belong here anymore though.

My brother in the space of 2 years left his insurance job (close to minimum wage) took a business course in the US, found a girl, worked his absolute ass off the year he was studying/shadowing there, came back to England, did the same and after 2 years his company sent him to their American office where he now lives and they are getting married.

We are in the EU for at least 2 years, but its more probably 2 1/2-3 years, in that time you can do great great things.

For those of you despondent thats 2 years where things will stay relatively the same in terms of your freedoms to move and work, see it as motivation, its a huge amount of time for someone who is motivated and focused.

Yeah. 2/3 years is a long time to get some headway. I'm also lucky that I'm in a decent paying job, at least for now. I just got to work and save and do as much as I can to increase my skillset. Doesn't change how shit this all feels atm though.
 

BKK

Member
Yeah. English born. Don't feel like I belong here anymore though.

You can work anywhere in the world, Australia, Asia, US, Europe. Really doesn't matter whether we are in the EU or not. Don't let EU freedom of movement rules blind you to the opportunities in the rest of the world. A British passport can be a passport to the world.
 
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