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[shinobi602]

(CNN) -- The CEO of a top research firm didn't mince words about Apple in a new blog post.

"Apple will decline in the post Steve Jobs era," wrote George Colony, CEO of Forrester Research. "Here's why."

The iPhone and iPad maker will coast for two to four years on its current momentum, Colony said; but Jobs, who died in October, left a void because his successor, Apple CEO Tim Cook, doesn't possess his star power.

"[W]ithout the arrival of a new charismatic leader it will move from being a great company to being a good company, with a commensurate step down in revenue growth and product innovation," Colony wrote.

An Apple spokesman declined to comment for this story.

The fade Colony describes doesn't appear to be on the immediate horizon.

This week, Apple reported doubling its profits in the first three months of the year, largely on the strength of the 35.1 million iPhones it sold (a number that far exceeded predictions). The company said it also sold 4 million Mac computers, 11.8 million iPads and 7.7 million iPods during the quarter.

Colony predicted that Apple's long-term fate will mirror that of onetime industry leaders like Sony and Kodak when they lost enigmatic leaders, or Disney in the 20 years after Walt Disney's death.

In his post Wednesday, Colony described Apple in almost religious terms. "Charismatic organizations are run by people with 'the gift of grace,' " he wrote, citing sociologist Max Weber.

But when that leader is gone, shifting to a more bureaucratic leader (which works for some organizations) doesn't translate well, he wrote.

"In charismatic organizations, the magical leader must be succeeded by another charismatic -- the emotional connection of employees and (in the case of Apple) customers demands it," Colony said. "Apple has chosen a proven and competent executive to succeed Jobs. But his legal/bureaucratic approach will prove to be a mismatch for an organization that feeds off the gift of grace."

Colony pointed to Apple executives Jon Ive and Scott Forstall as being better suited to run the company, saying they appear to possess the charisma and design sense to "legitimately" lead Apple.

Forrester is a global technology research company founded by Colony in 1983 and is considered a leader in analyzing the technology industry.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/04/26/tech/innovation/apple-decline-forrester/

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All companies eventually face some sort of decline though, right?

 

[ComputerMKII]

Google sure hopes they will.

 

[Divvy]

I for one would like someone to do a study about how accurate all these industry analysts are. They seem to be wrong far more often than they are right. *cough*Pachter*cough*

This is exactly what I was thinking. Every company has it's "peak", so I guess every big company is bound to have a decline?

Not necessarily. The earth could just explode before that happens.

 

[Muddimar]

.

All companies eventually face some sort of decline though, right?

This is exactly what I was thinking. Every company has it's "peak", so I guess every big company is bound to have a decline?

 

[Refrigerator]

This is about as obvious as saying that day eventually turns to night.

 

[Emily Chu]

Tell that to there cult of fans...

Even more fanatical then the gaming side

but it's not about gaming

it's about a lifestyle

 

[Valnen]

I would like to see a world in which they're forced to sell their products for sane prices.

 

[Alucrid]

Apple will decline in this unspecified period of time starting now until I'm right.

Genius

 

[jakncoke]

They could decline a little bit and still be crazy rich and still rake in crazy amounts of qtr profit. So yeah..

 

[jorma]

I for one would like someone to do a study about how accurate all these industry analysts are. They seem to be wrong far more often than they are right. *cough*Pachter*cough*

I read an article the other day about how you were better off if you had let a monkey pick your portfolio compared to stock market analysts. WAY better off. Is that comedy or tragedy? I'm on the fence.

 

[Cheebo]

Way to cherry pick the one "top analyst" who said that. You want a counter thread with endless other "top analysts" saying the opposite?

 

[Diprosalic]

George Colony. i giggled.

but yeah going down is waaay easier for apple than going up from here on out.

 

[Klyka]

"Top Analyst: 'I need hits on my site'"

 

[DietRob]

I can't find the pic of the cartoon guy looking all crazy with a line graph.

Yea that.

 

[demon]

Apple will decline in this unspecified period of time starting now until I'm right.

Genius

pretty much. What a pointless prediction.

 

[Garou]

Easy, they just need to start making games for iOS.

 

[Acid House]

He neglects to mention that Forstall and Ive are both powerful figures within the company. Tim Cook is a "shepherd" for the Apple that Steve Jobs created.

 

[hey_it's_that_dog]

Regression to the mean.

 

[teruterubozu]

America died with Steve Jobs.

 

[Tuck]

I think that's inevitable. Already I'd say they are sort of coasting a bit. Certainly, they are not updating iOS the way Google updates Android. And they don't have to, because everyone thinks they are the best (And in some ways they are). The problem is that whenever a company gets into that mindset, another company comes along and knocks them off their pedestal.

It won't happen for a while, but it will happen. Always does.

 

[MrPliskin]

Yea...

We should wait until they dive into the living room before we start making these calls.

 

[POWERSPHERE]

What goes up, must come down.

So you're telling me Apple won't be the worlds biggest company till the end of time?

NO FUCKING SHIT ANALYST!!!!

 

[NEOPARADIGM]

Eventually, you will die.

 

[Carbonox]

Colony pls.

 

[U n i o n 0015]

America died with Steve Jobs.

That's a bit dramatic.

 

[clav]

 

[Stumpokapow]

Apple fan Jon Gruber's take:

Colony’s pessimism is, unlike most Apple bearishness of late, perfectly reasonable. Apple did not fall to pieces when Jobs died, but no one with a clue expected it to. But Tim Cook and the remaining leadership team have yet to prove themselves in the long run. I’m not saying I agree with Colony (I don’t), I’m just saying his argument is reasonable. Apple is untested in these regards.

Disney is the comparison I like best. And he’s right, Disney sputtered a bit in the ’70s and ’80s, post-Walt. But look where they are today: the leading family entertainment company in the world, right where Walt left them. Apple should be so lucky 40 years hence.

The big difference is that The Walt Disney Company was in no way prepared for life after Walt. Apple, I think, was.

 

[freenudemacusers]

Tell that to there cult of fans...

Even more fanatical then the gaming side

but it's not about gaming

it's about a lifestyle

what an awesome post A+

 

[Mangotron]

A very "the grass is green" kind of statement. As I see it, without some kind of major innovation in the next 2-3 years, Apple will fall off in popularity. Android has the backing of a more powerful company that is consistently trying to innovate with their software. Stack that on top of the rapidly falling prices of tablets, and Apple could easily find themselves in a situation where they have a stale, overpriced product.

That said, it's quite possible that a brilliant UI refresh for iOS could keep them on top. And there is no denying the INSANE amount of hype they generate for even the most pointless revisions. Tons of people I know (even ones who can really can't afford it) grab the newest version of everything they make just because it's on TV.

 

[Cipherr]

In before Tobor.


Shitty article. Sure everything has a peak. But Jobs was not the only person working at Apple. I find it hilarious, and damn near worthy of scientific study, how much people downplay the amount of genius at that company and pin it all on one man. He was a tremendous part of Apple and their success, but that being said, he was still a part, not the whole. Doubt the future of this company to your own peril. In 4 years even smartphones and tablets will still be expanding at a tremendous rate. Guy is an idiot.

The iPhone and iPad maker will coast for two to four years on its current momentum, Colony said; but Jobs, who died in October, left a void because his successor, Apple CEO Tim Cook, doesn't possess his star power.

"[W]ithout the arrival of a new charismatic leader it will move from being a great company to being a good company, with a commensurate step down in revenue growth and product innovation,"

Yeah, people didnt buy those devices because they wanted them, because of brilliant marketing that raised awareness or anything like that. They bought them because Jobs was a 'star'!

 

[-Pyromaniac-]

Apple fan Jon Gruber's take:

WOW WHAT A FANBOY LOLGRUBERRRR WUTTT

Anyway, he is right.

 

[Cheebo]

Gruber is a fanboy but he knows his stuff.

 

[Talon]

They're at the forefront of an exploding tablet market, and the growth there is much faster than anticipated - outpacing any product that Apple has put out there.

Apple has shown a tremendous ability to innovate in the last decade, but it'll be up to the partnership of Tim Cook and Jonathan Ive to carry on the tradition.

 

[ecurbj]

Isn't that with all companies. It's part of evolution. Some other company going to come along and make something outrageously awesome and consumers are going to flock to it. This isn't new.

 

[Stinkles]

Apple fan Jon Gruber's take:

Those insane Apple fanboys with their wild overreactions.

 

[SonnyBoy]

If they keep saying it, eventually someone will be right.

 

[Hero_of_the_Day]

On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.

 

[.GqueB.]

The title of this thread and the CNN article is misleading. It cuts the quote in half even. The writer is explaining why they will decline not writing about the fact that they will. Of course they will. Every company does.

 

[VGChampion]

A company declines after a time. News at 11.

Sounds like the author came up with an idea and filled in reasons. That's middle school essay writing right there.

 

[ToxicAdam]

I didn't buy an Ipad because Steve Jobs was a good speaker.

But yea, corporations have lifecycles just like people (see Mitt Romney was right). There are ups and downs and then the eventual death.

 

[Cipherr]

The title of this thread and the CNN article is misleading. It cuts the quote in half even. The writer is explaining why they will decline not writing about the fact that they will. Of course they will. Every company does.

Thats BS though, its a cop out. He is saying they can't continue to succeed without Jobs at the helm, then qualifying it with

Well "Whatever goes up must come down"

Cmon son, thats as transparent as hell.

 

[Goro Majima]

This is exactly what I was thinking. Every company has it's "peak", so I guess every big company is bound to have a decline?

This.

Water is wet, etc. etc.

Nothing lasts forever.

 

[LyleLanley]

I would like to see a world in which they're forced to sell their products for sane prices.

Aren't most of their products priced similarly to their competitors?

Edit:

Also, if this is all it takes to be a top analyst I'm in the wrong business.

 

[subrock]

"Top Analyst: 'I need hits on my site'"

Eeyup

 

[kame-sennin]

The article lacked substance. Apple has become successful because their products are designed around customer behavior. For Apple to decline, there would have to be a change in that philosophy. While Cook is very different from Jobs, I see no indication that he wants to shift away from Jobs' philosophy. In fact, all available evidence suggests that Cook was put in charge to preserve and institutionalize Jobs' methodology.

Way to cherry pick the one "top analyst" who said that. You want a counter thread with endless other "top analysts" saying the opposite?

I'm not sure what the point of this post is. Most analysts love Apple. This article is news worthy because George Colony is arguing against conventional wisdom.

 

[-Pyromaniac-]

Aren't most of their products priced similarly to their competitors?

Edit:

Also, if this is all it takes to be a top analyst I'm in the wrong business.

nobody in the industry can match apple feature for feature and hardware for hardware and offer it at the same price without taking MASSIVE losses. Just not possible. It's a common misconception that apple over-prices but they seem to forget that their hardware is actually high quality.

 

[Alucrid]

I read an article the other day about how you were better off if you had let a monkey pick your portfolio compared to stock market analysts. WAY better off. Is that comedy or tragedy? I'm on the fence.

Fundamental, Quantitative or a some of both?

 

[SmokyDave]

'Apple will decline' doesn't seem like a terribly controversial or bold prediction.

Easy, they just need to start making games for iOS.

Fuck that, I don't want to play Angry Birds on a platform without buttons.


......waitaminute....

 

[lunarworks]

The title of this thread and the CNN article is misleading. It cuts the quote in half even. The writer is explaining why they will decline not writing about the fact that they will. Of course they will. Every company does.

A certain subset of people want Apple to fail.

Not necessarily fanboys of any stripe, but people who take great joy in the mighty falling.

 

[jorma]

Fundamental, Quantitative or a some of both?

People who made a living recommending stock to people. I am unable to specify beyond that, and i don't know that it was ever stated in the article. But i'm guessing that the people focusing on the fundamentals did a lot better during the recent decline =)