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Top analyst: "Apple will decline"
- Thread starter shinobi602
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Admiral Bone to Pick
Banned
Apple's market cap when it peaked in early 2012 was close to Microsoft's peak market cap in 1999 (not adjusting for inflation). I'm not sure if Apple will suffer the same fate as Microsoft and have a decade of consistent decline, but their most successful product by far in the iPhone has been out for over 5 years now. And I don't think Tim Cook has the kind of creative vision to create the same kind of breakout products that have made Apple so successful.
Do you honestly believe everyone that owns an apple device is somewhere in this age range and looks like this?
If that's what you believe, then you are sadly mistaken. I'm not anywhere in that age range, and I certainly don't look anything like that. Apple has gone far beyond that 'cult'. They are now mainstream. Grandmothers want iPhones now and iPads.
From my experience of analysts in the tech market/stock market, most of them are fucking morons.
Damon Bennet
Member
iphone and ipad do not sell because they are good products (which they are) but because apple was at the right place at the right time with tons of good marketing. they are cool atm.
we will see, how well they do, once they start to become less cool, or even boring because they dont change. they build on what is there, but lets see how they can reinvent once the time comes. fake book-shelves etc already start to look out of place.
we will see, how well they do, once they start to become less cool, or even boring because they dont change. they build on what is there, but lets see how they can reinvent once the time comes. fake book-shelves etc already start to look out of place.
Dreams-Visions
Member
They sell because they are good products. Generally ease to use, reliable and well designed. The coolness PR is essential, but it wouldn't work without the product to back it up.
Agreed. I was one of those people who said the iPad was nothing but a giant iPod...until I got one. The thing is awesome. It's much more.
This.
All the marketing in the world does no good if your products are complete shit. You certainly don't become one of the biggest companies in the world, if you're pumping out dud after dud.
Their strength is also their weakness.
They put there eggs in very few baskets - invest and polish. They have managed to lead the next disruptive tech push repeatedly recently.
All it takes is someone beating them to the punch or they miss the boat on one or two things and they end up sinking quickly.
There company model is reliant on understanding when some part of tech's time has come and how to deliver it appropriately (PR, product quality, ease of use). Can corporate culture sustain this or does it need a Steve Jobs? We'll see.
The exact opposite is modern Sony, dilution of braintrust and resources by shotgunning, fingers in everything master of none...collapsed in an era of Apples.
Probably a good example of old Sony / new resilient model is Samsung. Focus on core leadership in some areas (displays, memory) leverage into some other profit areas.
They put there eggs in very few baskets - invest and polish. They have managed to lead the next disruptive tech push repeatedly recently.
All it takes is someone beating them to the punch or they miss the boat on one or two things and they end up sinking quickly.
There company model is reliant on understanding when some part of tech's time has come and how to deliver it appropriately (PR, product quality, ease of use). Can corporate culture sustain this or does it need a Steve Jobs? We'll see.
The exact opposite is modern Sony, dilution of braintrust and resources by shotgunning, fingers in everything master of none...collapsed in an era of Apples.
Probably a good example of old Sony / new resilient model is Samsung. Focus on core leadership in some areas (displays, memory) leverage into some other profit areas.
...without the laughably awful prototype first edition followed by generation after generation which slowly adds more expected functionality and the fanatics keep buying while the casual buyers get interested too... to back it up.
Buying a device shouldn't be like buying a new-model car, having to wait 2-3 years for the model which won't break and will have what you want. Though the devices do depreciate much faster.
And that's just one bad business beef of many to do with Apple.
No, I don't think that unless Apple does something really extraordinary with the war chest that it's going to have the same glory days again.
So at least one rung above 99% of GAF.
LegendofJoe
Member
I remember playing with an iPhone in San Fran before it was released to consumers. It's insane to me that 5 years have gone by since then.
i nerini del buio
Member
No wonder, finance is bullshit. It can be fascinating on paper and some models are very elegant but on a practical level it's bullshit nonetheless.
Always-honest
Banned
Eventually, sure. But not for a while. Let's wait what they have in store for us.
Dreams-Visions
Member
lol?
My iPhone 2G, while lacking certain features common at the time (copy & paste, video recording), was so far ahead of WinMo phones and Blackberry's in 2007, it's almost laughable. Maybe you should go back and look at what WinMo phones looked like, felt like, and operated like back then. I'd take their "awful prototype" over WinMo 6.5 every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
iPad 1 was great and had no competitors. Apps designed for it came swiftly after launch and made it a fantastic device on its own merits. In the first edition. In fact, my first edition iPad is still excellent. You don't hear anyone here saying shit about the Xoom anymore, do you?
If you had a deeper point that I missed, feel free to articulate it.
both my iPad 1 and my 2G iPhone still work. OS updates brought the features you want later to all devices.
And such is going to be the reality in general with all-in-one devices. The pro is that they're smaller and thinner. The con is that once software updates max out their capabilities, that's that. The nice thing about Apple products in my experience has been that OS updates DO come. You don't have to wait for a carrier to approve updates.
So you don't buy any all-in-one devices....or laptops...or Windows devices...or Android devices.
Because all of them get software updates over time that fix problems, add features, and make products more usable. Your issues apply to the entire technology industry.
one can only hope. It's not good for a company to grow as large as Apple is without competition that can really cause competitive pricing and such. Right now they're so big they can just crush anyone out of the way. Just look at the frankly sickening way they tried to control e-book pricing.
I mean Apple products are also closed-platform crap, so there's a philosophical reason I'd want them to decline too... and they will. Eventually, they will. So many better products out there and much of it significantly cheaper. Then Apple will have to play competitively and hopefully better products will come from them too.
I mean Apple products are also closed-platform crap, so there's a philosophical reason I'd want them to decline too... and they will. Eventually, they will. So many better products out there and much of it significantly cheaper. Then Apple will have to play competitively and hopefully better products will come from them too.
GTP_Daverytimes
Member
I think they are basing this on past events and common sense, all great companies fall and rise again. Sony (yet to rise), Disney, GM, Nissan, Nintendo e.t.c, at one point or another these companies and so many others lost momentum and declined only to rise up again. The world is just like that.
Dreams-Visions
Member
Apple has competitors that compete on their pricing.
DonasaurusRex
Online Ho Champ
*looks at apples revenue and profits for the last 5 years*
well no shit they cant keep THAT up but i dont see them going back to their 90's / early 2000's levels of insignificance.
well no shit they cant keep THAT up but i dont see them going back to their 90's / early 2000's levels of insignificance.
Apple has "competitors" in the same way a mosquito is a competitor for a hippo. They are a massive shadow, eviscerating all comers. When they get legitimate competition, they might start to make good products. I look forward to the day.
Way better off is quite loaded. Chances are your managed funds will perform relatively on par with the market as a whole. Then you run into management fees and expenses that hurt your returns.
Which is part of the reason why a well diversified passive index fund will likely perform just as well if not better.
The stock market is pretty efficient and doesnt really allow for any analyst to constantly outperform the market.
It is a random walk after all...
The iPad is regarded by most as the best tablet on the market. Where in the world do you get the idea they don't release good products?
Not to mention the MacBook Air is consistently the best reviewed laptop around from the likes of Consumer Reports, PC World, The Verge, etc.
If they made bad products this wouldn't be the case.
faceless007
Member
I'm not anti-Apple and don't have any animosity towards the company, so don't interpret this as an Apple troll, but that general statement is trivially disprovable in two words:
Energy bracelets.
CharminUltra
Member
I am curious as to what you consider a "good product", if only for the lulz.
Salty people are salty, man just move on ..Do you honestly believe everyone that owns an apple device is somewhere in this age range and looks like this?
If that's what you believe, then you are sadly mistaken. I'm not anywhere in that age range, and I certainly don't look anything like that. Apple has gone far beyond that 'cult'. They are now mainstream. Grandmothers want iPhones now and iPads.
While the Analyst's prediction is laughable in the sense that he's predicting that sun will rise from the east tomorrow, he reasons for the decline are laughable.
Trivial sales numbers and trivial price compared to iPads and iPhones.
LOL NO mistar analist I'm pretty sure Apple got nowhere to go but up forever. Soon mankind will colonize other planets and the birth rate will go way up and we're about to hit the computer singularity which means massive expansion of humankind throughout the galaxy then to other dimensions to keep up with the Apple growth rate.
freenudemacusers
Member
Well to be fair, more people probably own energy bracelets than winmo phones.
kame-sennin
Member
Demonstrably false. Apple's 1984 Super Bowl commercial showed that Apple has had brilliant marketing and advertising sense since the beginning. But their brilliant marketing didn't save them during the 90's.
Your second point makes even less sense. If increased consumer savvyness is going to hurt Apple, why are Mac sales growing while the rest of the PC industry declines?
faceless007
Member
Doesn't change the point that marketing is powerful.
And while I don't have figures I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility more energy bracelets have been sold than iPads.
CharminUltra
Member
In this thread we ignore all the failed products Apple marketed to hell and back and yet sold like crap.
freenudemacusers
Member
Assuming apple has some magic marketing powers would it not make sense to bottle and sell this formula,rather than objects? You want to talk about margins...
IOW how does this not apply to every company since the dawn of companies? Why is apple regularly dismissed as "marketing"?
faceless007
Member
Right because despite me explicitly making a general point about marketing and not arguing against Apple, people are only capable of taking it as a dig against Apple.
Welcome to threads that even slightly mention Apple.
CharminUltra
Member
You're trying to make a point that things sell well regardless of quality as long as you market them well... in an Apple thread.
Either you're doing a poor job at explaining your argument or you are posting in the wrong thread.
faceless007
Member
"All the marketing in the world does no good if your products are complete shit."
As a general rule, including any type of product, do you think that's correct?
For fuck's sake.
As a general rule, including any type of product, do you think that's correct?
For fuck's sake.
freenudemacusers
Member
I'm not taking your post in that manner, just responding to that general notion. If I were to suggest that the only reason people get an xbox 360 vs a ps3 was marketing and their users were sheep for falling for it, and gave a few pet preferences as evidence (HD and online costs,etc) I'd be laughed off this forum. The difference here is..?
No one suggested marketing wasn't powerful. People objected to the notion marketing is the biggest or only reason for the continued success of i devices.
Those bracelets sold some millions for like $30 a piece. Last quarter Apple sold over 35 million iPhones.
I just followed the quoteline back, I dont see where faceless ever made the notion that Apples success has been solely due to marketing. I saw him take an opposing position to
"Marketing doesnt matter if your product is shit"
A statement that seems to say, a bad product will ensure a cap on success no matter how good the marketing is. His reply, disclaimer and all, basically stated that this was not always the case. And he said that COMPLETELY INDEPENDENT of Apple.
Im not seeing at all where he stated that iOS devices werent sold on merit, but on marketing. That very clearly seems to be a full on jump to conclusions that you made.
Or you guys are being sensitive as fuck for no reason and lack basic reading comprehension. That man actually put a full on disclaimer and clarifyer in his statement just to make sure noone took it the wrong way, and you guys still managed to screw it up. Maybe you should be a little less trigger happy and realize that perhaps you meant to address this guy
And not the guy you attacked.
It was the context of the discussion. The reply he quoted was in response to chain of thought regarding the bulk of Apple's success being due to marketing.
Which is probably why he included this in his response to help you grab the context properly
Im sorry, but you are very clearly out of line here. There is no reason that you shouldnt have understood the context. He spelled it out for you very clearly.
Apple's position with the iPhone reminds me of Motorola with the RAZR, and then RIM with the Blackberry. Phone technology moves fast, and I wonder how long the new Jobs-less Apple will be able to hold onto their current momentum. Tablets I think they will have a much stronger hold because it is a fairly new area of computer products.
CoffeeJanitor
Member
How do I get a job as an analyst? Seems like the easiest job in the world
HocusPocus
Member
Iphone is like a non 80's pop song right now. Nobody will remember it in 10 years.
Huh? Where did I suggest he was trolling or even being anti-Apple? It seemed to me he misunderstood the crux of the discussion.
faceless007
Member
Thanks Cipherr, you get me.
When you replied by comparing the sales of energy bracelets and iDevices. That only makes sense as a reply if you think my point was specifically about iDevices.
When you replied by comparing the sales of energy bracelets and iDevices. That only makes sense as a reply if you think my point was specifically about iDevices.
freenudemacusers
Member
I would think people will remember a song that topped the charts for several years in a row
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