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Top analyst: "Apple will decline"
- Thread starter shinobi602
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Messypandas
Member
Every decision WAS cleared past Jobs though. Wanna thank Ives for the design of the ipod? Or Jobs for every variation he knocked back until it was up to his insane standards. We're talking hissyfits and tears at the degrees of chamfered angles. I'm not the biggest fan of Apple or Jobs in general, but doing reading about both enlightened me to how much the popularity and resurgence of Apple to dominance in the 90's was hinged on his meticulous decisions. Cook may have that level genius in him, but i haven't seen any proof.
Didn't say he was right. Just said the title is terrible.
I personally think their decline will be a result of many factors that have nothing to do with them. We live in strange economic times now. There may come a time where people simply can't afford their shit. Or enough people anyway.
They do have the potential to be coasting for a while though. Cliffy B [I think] said something YEARS ago about Gears. When you release something, make it an event and they are very good at this. Whenever apples releases something, everything just stops. Other companies haven't learned this yet somehow. They're so good at making people give a shit. This matters so much.
When I was working at a wealth management firm during a few months ago quant was strong, and we only had one monkey there, and his portfolio was only the third best at the time.
Vanillalite
Ask me about the GAF Notebook
These are the same people that thought Apple wasn't going to really do THAT well in Q1.
Then Apple dropped their Q1 Report yesterday and the world said...
Mean while Tim Cook laughed all the way to the bank.
Then Apple dropped their Q1 Report yesterday and the world said...
Mean while Tim Cook laughed all the way to the bank.
Sanky Panky
Banned
In the more immediate future, AAPL has been the darling of this current stock bubble fueled by excess liquidity pumped into the markets. The value is bound to drop when the market undergoes the needed correction. It will take another Fed injection to get the stock up to the ridiculous $1000 territory.
On a more fundamental basis, as the company matures and growth resembles more the overall growth in the economy, things will stabilize. They have opportunities in the emerging markets and the Chinese getting wealthier (they are due for a correction too), but I think eventually they'll have to tap into the low-end market.
Don't know how much more innovative the ipad/iphone can get aside from fun holographic stuff maybe. We'll see.
On a more fundamental basis, as the company matures and growth resembles more the overall growth in the economy, things will stabilize. They have opportunities in the emerging markets and the Chinese getting wealthier (they are due for a correction too), but I think eventually they'll have to tap into the low-end market.
Don't know how much more innovative the ipad/iphone can get aside from fun holographic stuff maybe. We'll see.
mescalineeyes
Banned
I hope these Analysts do realize that Apple is locking more and more people into their ecosystem YoY.
For "normal" people, there really is no reason to switch away from Apple, especially since their Apps are tied down.
For "normal" people, there really is no reason to switch away from Apple, especially since their Apps are tied down.
TheRagnCajun
Member
To me, that amassed cash is a sign of hesitation and lack of vision. That nest egg has been building for many, many years...and it seems they don't know what to do with it.
Google makes plenty of money off of Apple users.
Sanky Panky
Banned
Pretty much. Companies can take on projects at the end of the year, as long as those projects have a positive NPV for the company.
They will probably prepare for some acquisitions, which probably won't be in the smartphone/tablet markets because of anti-trust stuff. Apple could become a bigger conglomerate of electronics products, except nothing out there probably looks good to get into right now. They are probably in a wait and see mode.
Jill Sandwich
the turds of Optimus Prime
The TV is going to be the test.
Phoenix
Member
What he is saying it pretty dumb. He points to Disney's decline 20 years after Walt Disney dies? Really? Not sure you can correlate those two over such a large period of time.
Tim Cook is no Steve Jobs, but this guy is off his rocker.
The article is worded for him to be right (eventually) or past his own life.
I think it's a fair point, I am curious to see how Apple will go from here on out. There's no denying that Steve Jobs was the visionary behind the iPod, iPhone and iPad that lead Apple to where they are today. Right now Apple is on top so they can definitely ride on their brand name for now but as for launching newer, more important products in the next 10 years? It'll be interesting to see.
I think it's a fair point, I am curious to see how Apple will go from here on out. There's no denying that Steve Jobs was the visionary behind the iPod, iPhone and iPad that lead Apple to where they are today. Right now Apple is on top so they can definitely ride on their brand name for now but as for launching newer, more important products in the next 10 years? It'll be interesting to see.
Hari Seldon
Member
The theory behind this is that the 3rd generation is usually when the decline starts. First gen is the founder and visionary, second gen is his disciples, third gen is corporate stooges.
BertramCooper
Banned
I think they'll cool off quite a bit over the next decade, but I don't envision a massive drop anytime soon.
Sony serves as a really great cautionary tale in the tech sector. I can't see Apple ever going down that exact path (Apple would never spread itself as thin as Sony has), but there are many paths that could lead to a decline. I think the increasingly obnoxious Apple culture and continued bad press over labor issues (much of it admittedly unfair) could eventually wear down their brand loyalty a bit, but probably not too much.
Sony serves as a really great cautionary tale in the tech sector. I can't see Apple ever going down that exact path (Apple would never spread itself as thin as Sony has), but there are many paths that could lead to a decline. I think the increasingly obnoxious Apple culture and continued bad press over labor issues (much of it admittedly unfair) could eventually wear down their brand loyalty a bit, but probably not too much.
RiccochetJ
Gold Member
Wasn't it considered that the 'bad' Apple years were when Jobs wasn't there? I thought things only really turned around once he returned.
I can understand the concern, but I also think they learned a lot from their past.
I can understand the concern, but I also think they learned a lot from their past.
Mammoth Jones
Member
I didn't buy my iPhone because Steve wore such dazzling turtlenecks and was so charming. I bought them because it's a great product that helps me keep in touch on the go and stay productive.
Just make great products. Stick to the core values of your organization and never stop trying something different. People forget Apple had a fuck ton of flops along with their successes.
Just make great products. Stick to the core values of your organization and never stop trying something different. People forget Apple had a fuck ton of flops along with their successes.
roodiculous
Member
Apple is bound to peak like any other company. For our sakes I hope they continue producing well designed products and push the envelope further. Competition never ceases.
THAT'S JUST WHAT DAZZLING STEVE JOBS' CHARMING ADVERTISING WANTS YOU TO THINK, SHEEP!
I lost all respect for Steve Jobs after his hypocritical "Thoughts on Flash" rant. I don't understand why people find him so inspirational or whatever. He believed in profiting no matter what the cost. Successful in business, but no one will ever refer to him as a philanthropist. Suffice it to say, I don't believe Apple's success hinges on one person, but rather on marketing. Consumers are becoming more savvy and Apple (computers most specifically) offer very poor performance compared to the cost. And there is next to nothing that OS X can do that Windows can't. Also, it's tough to say how long the iPhone can stay on top.
SnakeswithLasers
Member
I can't believe nobody made a Newton/Gravity joke. =(
freenudemacusers
Member
It's always that marketing.
Phoenix
Member
Apple knows one thing that most people seem to neglect - User Experience is more important than price. People will pay more for a better user experience, give up functionality for it, wait in line for days for it, just because the experience of using the device is better. Android's user experience is still to complex in many ways. Yeah, you can do more stuff with it - but people are missing the point.... PEOPLE DON'T WANT all that functionality. They want things to be easy, quick, touch & go, tap and scan. I had this debate with a guy in Best Buy one day, kept showing me all the cool things the Transformer Prime could do (granted I already had one) and how you could use a game controller with it and such. And I said... so, that lady over there looking at the iPads - do you think she wants to do all of that? Hell she didn't want to do all of that with Windows either. His response was "well she could learn to do all this cool stuff and she would be free from Apple". My response was 'she is trying to buy something that makes her life easier... do you think she cares about all this other shit?'
The lady did buy an iPad 3 after asking if they came in the size of the Kindle Fire. Android would do so much better if the designers would learn to get all the shit out of the way. 90% of people don't care about all the extra stuff. They may get into it after a while, but to be loaded with shit, swiping through and installing dashboard stuff, etc? It confuses a lot of people. The engineers are too smart to realize how stupid they are.
While I agree with the User Experience argument, here again I think this boils down to marketing. I think it would be very difficult to argue that OS X Lion is a much better user experience than Windows 7 to justify the higher price. I think some users still have the idea burned into their brain that Apple is simple and fun and Microsoft is difficult, ugly and daunting. I think Apple having brick and mortar stores does help perpetuate this theory. And I would agree that as far as current gen phones/mobile devices go, Apple provides a pretty decent experience. Luckily for Apple, the competition has made very shortsighted or stupid choices in terms of cost, apps, form factor, and performance of their mobile products. Android is still a mess of various OS's across different devices with different features and Windows Phone is still Windows Phone.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Who are we to contradict Top Analyst?
I need a title like "Top Analyst" one of these days.
I need a title like "Top Analyst" one of these days.
LegendofJoe
Member
*slow clap*
FantasticMrFoxdie
Mumber
Water is wet.
When you are so high up, there is only one place left to go.
When you are so high up, there is only one place left to go.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
World domination? Imagine what it would be like if OSX was the dominant OS platform.
Wiktor
Member
Revenues-wise? I don't think so too. But once they cool off their shares will plunge as investors will go look for next play thing. Not that it will have any effect on how successful they really are.
It's simpler than that.nthendesign ethos behind things like iPhone and iPad distil down to them just being a piece of glass that you interact with. Everything else is just getting I the way of how you interact.
Add that to the app store,band you have two simple concepts that will normalise over time (they arguably already are). Eventually people won't necessarily want an iPhone, they'll want that piece of glass with apps,band there will be a range of options open to them. That will drive down prices and Apples ASP will inevitably drop, as will their margins.
Right now Apple have the best products,but not with as much clear water between them and the competition as they have had before. And they are benefitting from android fragmentation and no coherent message from google. Maybe that'll change with their acquisition of google.
Weren't Nokia at similar margins at the start of the century?
VariantX04
Loser slave of the system :(
How can anyone claim Cook is untested when he's been running the company for the past 2 years (its best 2 years, might I add)?
SuicideUZI
Member
a lot of the people who buy apple's products have never heard a word steve jobs said and probably never even knew who he was until there was so much media about his death. If apple continues making great products then they will be fine
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
I don't think the argument is about Cook as steward of business, I think the argument is about Cook as leader of invention.
VariantX04
Loser slave of the system :(
I seriously doubt Jobs would appoint someone who lacks leadership in that regard. Sure, he may not be a visionary, but the work Jobs has done leading up to this point could serve as inspiration moving forward, I think.
Dreams-Visions
Member
Please pay me thousands now. Thanks.
Nokia was not at similar margins. They were always in the 10-25% range in the past decade.
Apple's ASPs have dropped this past quarter (probably due to the introduction of free 3GS and $399 iPad) but their margins have actually increased.
Their margins rely more on leveraging and managing their supply chain properly than to having ultra-high prices (most devices are priced similar with competitors).
They have few devices, so you just need to make a massive order of one part, instead of ordering different parts for 100 different phones.
They recycle hardware so things are cheaper. The iPhone 4's camera goes into the new iPad once it gets cheap, the A4/A5 and RAM goes into the Apple TV after the chips get cheap, the same RAM and wireless chips are used, etc. They use roughly the same design for 2 years or more in a row so it saves money on equipment and labor (you don't need to train them on new hardware design).
They then sell most of them in Apple Stores instead of Best Buy or other retailers (they don't need to give Best Buy a cut, further improving margins).
Even with significant price deterioration, I think they would still maintain a significant margin lead over their rivals.
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