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Tough Christmas for Nintendo?
- Thread starter Bishman
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DJ Demon J
Banned
Well that about wraps it up for Nintendo.
Chopin Trusty Balls
First casualty in the war on idioticy.
Sky is blue
What's bad is the whole year will remain flat for Nintendo growth-wise. I really hope this prompts them to change their image. If the Revolution is a Nintendo machine and not a machine that is more focused on 3rd party than 1st party it'll continue Nintendo's downward spiral in console hardware sales. (NES outsold SNES, which outsold N64 which will outsell Gamecube unless the GC has a good 25 million in sales left in it)
sonycowboy
Member
Yeah,
I'd have to agree that from a sales perspective, this is the year that the GCN falls into a distant third in North America/Europe.
Currently, the hardware sales gap is ~1.4 million in the US. By this time next year, I expect it to be over 4 million.
I'd have to agree that from a sales perspective, this is the year that the GCN falls into a distant third in North America/Europe.
Currently, the hardware sales gap is ~1.4 million in the US. By this time next year, I expect it to be over 4 million.
Sales wise, the Nintendo games on the systems will be the big sellers over third party multiplatform titles. Where some games like PoP don't sell well anyway, they probably will do less with the releases of PM2, MP2E, MP6, Star Fox, Mario Tennis, and maybe even Baten Kaitos. Then Nintendo has to compete with the huge games on the other systems. MGS3, Halo 2, GTA, and GT will garner most of the sales. And then Nintendo still has the GBA to market and the DS to push. It's gonna be a real rough ride for sure.
Not a very well written article. Kinda makes its point in the first paragraph and then repeats it over and over. But I do agree that MP2 and RE4 don't have the hype behind them that Halo2 and GTA:SA do.
The bigger problem is that Nintendo doesn't have a family-friendly multiplayer blockbuster for this Xmas. A game like SSMB Melee or Mario Kart
D would stand up well against the competition because they'd offer an alternative. MP2 and RE4 are competing for the same "mature" audience as Halo and GTA (and even MGS and Gran Turismo).
The bigger problem is that Nintendo doesn't have a family-friendly multiplayer blockbuster for this Xmas. A game like SSMB Melee or Mario Kart
D would stand up well against the competition because they'd offer an alternative. MP2 and RE4 are competing for the same "mature" audience as Halo and GTA (and even MGS and Gran Turismo).MightyHedgehog
Member
Watch PSP and DS both get sunk by the old GBA...
Anyway, definitely not your typical happy-happy article about Nintendo from a Nintendo fansite...kinda depressing...and I'm not much of a GC proponent.
Anyway, definitely not your typical happy-happy article about Nintendo from a Nintendo fansite...kinda depressing...and I'm not much of a GC proponent.
sonycowboy
Member
jarrod said:
Yes. You heard it here first. Seriously, I expect the Xbox to outsell the GC by 2-3times for the rest of the year, with the November sales being something like 1.3 million - 500k and December being similar. That right there is 1.6 million on top of the 1.4 = 3 million. The other 10 months should account for a million as well.
Obviously rough numbers with a substantial margin for erro, but the writing is on the wall.
What he said, pre edit, could have easily been applied to the topic, since it was a responce to the topic. And Santa's comment still is out of place in a topic reguarding the health of a certain Nintendo product and not Nintendo itself. I don't know and will not inquire as to why it's such a big issue to you.
Nintendo does not have a single game that will outsell the likes of Metal Gear Solid 3, Halo 2, GTA:SA. That said, MP 2, Mario Party, Star Fox and Mario RPG aren't going to sit on the shelf. Know why?, because never has a Metroid, Mario Party, Star Fox, or MAR-PG ever sat on the shelf. They have want are called fans, and these fans are going to buy Nintendo games regardless of whatever else is on the shelf.
Moreover, Nintendo has four key titles over the holidays while ever other publisher worth a damn (excluding Sony and EA) has only two...and for most of them only one of those two are garanteed to sell.
SSBM didn't sell as much as Halo? So what. SSBM still sold over 3.5 million copies worldwide (vs Halo @ 4 million). Splinter Cell outsold Metroid Prime by two or three hundred thousand copies. Big. Freaking. Deal. If the author of the article bothered to do some fact-checking, he'd see that Nintendo has more million-selling titles on GCN than MS--or any other publisher--has on Xbox. Moreover, Nintendo is the top-selling publisher in Japan, and the second-top selling publisher in the U.S.
But what am I saying? Nintendo is so dead. Yeah, the last two years they got lucky. They're in for it this year..
Moreover, Nintendo has four key titles over the holidays while ever other publisher worth a damn (excluding Sony and EA) has only two...and for most of them only one of those two are garanteed to sell.
SSBM didn't sell as much as Halo? So what. SSBM still sold over 3.5 million copies worldwide (vs Halo @ 4 million). Splinter Cell outsold Metroid Prime by two or three hundred thousand copies. Big. Freaking. Deal. If the author of the article bothered to do some fact-checking, he'd see that Nintendo has more million-selling titles on GCN than MS--or any other publisher--has on Xbox. Moreover, Nintendo is the top-selling publisher in Japan, and the second-top selling publisher in the U.S.
But what am I saying? Nintendo is so dead. Yeah, the last two years they got lucky. They're in for it this year.
.Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
I don't give a shit about numbers as far as Sony, MS and Nintendo are here to provide me with the games that I like.
0_0 Damn. I promised myself that if Halo 2 surpassed San Andreas in sales I would eat crow... It looks like Oxy was right, Halo 2 is going to sell like crazy.
What I'd be interested to see is whether or not the GBA Audience Nintendo has been building gets behind some titles similar to their GBA Counterparts.
Zero Mission and Mario and Luigi: Superstar Saga both sold pretty quickly and well for Nintendo on the GBA, and I'm wondering whether or not those sales, especially M&L:SS, might carry over.
Really, I don't expect Nintendo software to bomb as much as their hardware sales...and even then I think sonycowboy's lead is exaggerated. But it definitely won't be a shining point for Nintendo.
Zero Mission and Mario and Luigi: Superstar Saga both sold pretty quickly and well for Nintendo on the GBA, and I'm wondering whether or not those sales, especially M&L:SS, might carry over.
Really, I don't expect Nintendo software to bomb as much as their hardware sales...and even then I think sonycowboy's lead is exaggerated. But it definitely won't be a shining point for Nintendo.
Chopin Trusty Balls
First casualty in the war on idioticy.
Mario Party 6 probobly wont make it this year in US.
Starfox 2 wont sell too great.
And MP2 and PM2 will sell to existing fanbase and wont sell too many systems.
RE4 and Geist delayed,Baten Kaitos and Donkey Konga probobly wont sell above 200-250K copies each.
Starfox 2 wont sell too great.
And MP2 and PM2 will sell to existing fanbase and wont sell too many systems.
RE4 and Geist delayed,Baten Kaitos and Donkey Konga probobly wont sell above 200-250K copies each.
sonycowboy said:
I agree... plus MS and Sony still have at least one more price drop coming which should provide an extra boost. I really don't think Nintendo is willing to go any lower. They're already losing money on the Cube. They'll probably offer some nice bundle deals, but it doesn't have the same effect with consumers.
Concerning the pre-order statement: specious logic at best. Just because Halo has more pre-orders doesn't mean that it will sell more, which is what I think the author is suggesting.
For one thing, Halo 2 was suppose to launch last year, and the pre-order campaign started a year before that. Those 900 pre-orders are because GameStop has been pre-ordering the game for two years.
For another, people don't pre-order GTA games. Look at how easily The Wind Waker was able to exceed the preorders of Vice City (OOT promotion aside). Look at how GTA games stay on the charts for months after the release. The people who buy GTA games don't buy them right away.
For one thing, Halo 2 was suppose to launch last year, and the pre-order campaign started a year before that. Those 900 pre-orders are because GameStop has been pre-ordering the game for two years.
For another, people don't pre-order GTA games. Look at how easily The Wind Waker was able to exceed the preorders of Vice City (OOT promotion aside). Look at how GTA games stay on the charts for months after the release. The people who buy GTA games don't buy them right away.
Ok, you two, stop exaggerating and get back on topic then instead of escalating this. Don't make me pull this car over.
Jedi: I think Microsoft will do their annual bundles and not drop the price. Holidays they always promote a new console bundle and a new Xbox Live package. That will take away the Gamecube Bundle's value and leave it, again as it has been the rest of the year, with only a price difference.
Jedi: I think Microsoft will do their annual bundles and not drop the price. Holidays they always promote a new console bundle and a new Xbox Live package. That will take away the Gamecube Bundle's value and leave it, again as it has been the rest of the year, with only a price difference.
ravingloon
Member
The trolls are in full force. But for me, I've already sold my XBox and PS2 because PC and Gamecube cover 95% of the released games worth playing
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Vagabond said:
I disagree, nintendo will have a bundle.
I predict it will be called something to to the effect of "Nintendo Classics"
Include Mario 64, Pilotwings, and a couple others, along with demos of big Gamecube games.
EDIT: I bet they spraypaint it too
ravingloon said:The trolls are in full force. But for me, I've already sold my XBox and PS2 because PC and Gamecube cover 95% of the released games worth playing
The whole article was based on the selling potential for this Holiday season. Nobody is saying the GC line-up sucks... it just doesn't have the the potential of PS2 and Xbox.
Although I game primarily on Xbox, I fully believe that there are enough quality games on each system to be a satisified gamer.
First of all, Parrin Kaplin has already stated last year that Nintendo was losing a "small amount" on the GCN hardware. Secondly, last fiscal year, Nintendo software sales exceed $30 million in the US alone. That's second only to EA.jedimike said:
More importantly, when Nintendo cut the price of the GCN last year, the sales of software actually boosted to a higher degree than sales of hardware. Meaning that Nintendo can successfully compensate the small amount lost on hardware with their excellent software sales.
So if Nintendo were to cut the price of the GCN again--which they will by the end of next year--the small margin lost in the hardware would have been more than made up considering how well their software sales.
What frustrates me about the article (Since we're supposedly getting back on topic) the author doesn't seem to suggest what exactly Nintendo should DO about it.
What would the magic fix be? He said himself that NO title for GameCube has sold NEAR Halo levels other than SSB:M. Well, great! Then what are they supposed to do? Are they insinuating that the only solution is to release a huge selling title, or that a sequel is the only medioum possible?
I'm a Nintendo fanboy, and I GET it. I completely understand and respect the godly power of Halo 2, and know how Sony wields the force of Metal Gear Solid 3 and Gran Turismo 4. I don't need 12 paragraphs in order to learn this. I'm even convinced that Nintendo not only is doing nothing to combat this, I'm not sure what in the hell they could do. I mean, sure, throw out a Smash Brothers sequel, as Matt and IGN so eloquently instructed Nintendo to do. But with that out of the picture, why spend all that time? Why constantly lament the lack of a big title...without really giving them an alternative?
Paper Mario 2 will outsell MP:Echoes, as far as I can see, and Star Fox will do SFA style numbers...but I don't think anything Nintendo throws out there could ACTUALLY compete with Microsoft and Sony's big titles.
The problem will be in HARDWARE, not in software, as far as I can see.
What would the magic fix be? He said himself that NO title for GameCube has sold NEAR Halo levels other than SSB:M. Well, great! Then what are they supposed to do? Are they insinuating that the only solution is to release a huge selling title, or that a sequel is the only medioum possible?
I'm a Nintendo fanboy, and I GET it. I completely understand and respect the godly power of Halo 2, and know how Sony wields the force of Metal Gear Solid 3 and Gran Turismo 4. I don't need 12 paragraphs in order to learn this. I'm even convinced that Nintendo not only is doing nothing to combat this, I'm not sure what in the hell they could do. I mean, sure, throw out a Smash Brothers sequel, as Matt and IGN so eloquently instructed Nintendo to do. But with that out of the picture, why spend all that time? Why constantly lament the lack of a big title...without really giving them an alternative?
Paper Mario 2 will outsell MP:Echoes, as far as I can see, and Star Fox will do SFA style numbers...but I don't think anything Nintendo throws out there could ACTUALLY compete with Microsoft and Sony's big titles.
The problem will be in HARDWARE, not in software, as far as I can see.
Dr.Guru of Peru
played the long game
GC is doomed this Christmas. No question about it. Heck, I dont even think a price drop to $50 can save it.
Still, there are plenty of GC games coming out this holiday that Im looking forward to. Baiten Kaitos, MP2, Paper Mario, and Pikmin 2 are all must haves for me. They wont help the GC sell, but they'll be very fun. IMO, 2004 is easily the best year in terms of software for the GC.
Still, there are plenty of GC games coming out this holiday that Im looking forward to. Baiten Kaitos, MP2, Paper Mario, and Pikmin 2 are all must haves for me. They wont help the GC sell, but they'll be very fun. IMO, 2004 is easily the best year in terms of software for the GC.
Off topic again: Does no one see the re-occuring pattern? Every year for the past two years, it was supposed to be Nintendo's last year and every year their games end up at the top of the charts.
I don't know what it is, but some people want Nintendo to fail. Here we have Nintendo's best line-up for the GCN and people like the author are still critiquing with the glass half empty.
If you look objectively at Nintendo's line-up, it is difficult to argue that Nintendo won't have a successful holiday season. Yet people are still complaining because no single GCN game is likely to outsell another publisher's single game. Craziness.
I don't know what it is, but some people want Nintendo to fail. Here we have Nintendo's best line-up for the GCN and people like the author are still critiquing with the glass half empty.
If you look objectively at Nintendo's line-up, it is difficult to argue that Nintendo won't have a successful holiday season. Yet people are still complaining because no single GCN game is likely to outsell another publisher's single game. Craziness.
So even if we take your prediction that XBox will reach record highs and GC will reach record lows (which seem to be at almost maximum in each direction) where's that extra 1.1 million units coming from? The 1st half of 2005, when consoles move at their slowest? XBox's 8 months of lead over GameCube last year weren't enough to push it past in the end thanks to GC's notable lead in the pre-Christmas rush, you'd think 1.1M units will come in that period? There's no way XBox will grow to a 4 million lead in the US in just one year, especially when Xenon hype will start ramping up in the last half of said year. XBox (like GC & PS2) is past the climax of it's cycle...sonycowboy said:
Right now? Prove it.jedimike said:
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