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Trump Refuses to Support Paul Ryan, McCain, in Primary
- Thread starter brianmcdoogle
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minor effort
Banned
A generic Republican would probably be doing better against Hillary than Trump is right now, but only if they were already on the ground running following a primary, a convention, and several months worth of preparation and campaign building and fundraising and everything. Not from scratch, not in under 100 days.
Yeah.
Not even the ghost of Reagan could win against Hillary after Trump happened and with 100 days of campaign left. And every real strong prospective republican candidate will back out to this sort of suicidal run. Maybe McCain on a redemption last run of sacrifice.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
None of that matters if you're down more than a couple of points. Here is how Kasich was polling against Clinton.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep.../general_election_kasich_vs_clinton-5162.html
Indeed it was.
User 463088
Banned
There is no such thing as a generic Republican. You're talking about someone coming in with less than 100 days and magically pulling a campaign out of their ass. I mean, Trump doesn't have much of a campaign, but he's got a little something. Not much! But something.
1) There is no way his ego lets him quit. Seriously.
2) If he did quit, he will not quit for the "good of the party." He will go out kicking,screaming and bitching. Because that's how he's done EVERYTHING. There is not one thing this entire campaign he has done with an iota of class. But being thrown off the ticket, being the only party nominee in modern history to just be like "YOLO, I quit?" and he's going to be graceful? Naw.
3) As we saw with some aspects of the left, if you beat the "It's rigged" drum, people will believe it. The things Trump has said about the GOP trying to rig it against him, and the media...you think his supporters would believe him if he came out and said he was dropping out of the race to spend quality time with his tiny, tiny hands?
Ninja Scooter
Member
You are assuming Trump would drop out graciously, rather than go out kicking and screaming and invoking that he was forced out because "I'm not a quitter". Even if he willingly drops out, his ego will not allow him to make it seem that way. There is no alternate universe in which Donald Fucking Trump 3 months out from the general election drops out quietly and graciously and urges conservatives to vote for Paul Ryan. None. It is an impossibility.
j_k_redtail
Member
See, that is not likely.
Exactly. He will throw shit at us until November. He'll then cry foul when he loses, say it was rigged, and go back to losing money or whatever the fuck he does for a living.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Oooookaayyy, someone asked a question and I answered it realistically. Let's all just assume Trump sticks around because he's the most likely to lose right now. Anyone else would be a tougher opponent.
minor effort
Banned
These polls are over three months old. Hillary Clinton and the Democrats just wrapped up what was viewed as a very successful convention. The GOP is a dumpster fire right now.
We're talking about if a generic Republican were tapped to start running this GOP nomination, under current conditions, today. It wouldn't happen. Even if they polled well several months ago, their campaign just wouldn't get built in time. Plus, Trump would probably take a huge chunk of very bitter supporters with him on top of all that.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Was there a model for Trump in a hypothetical against Obama (no term limits)?
How bad would that ass beating be?
Yes, this is the hypothetical I was suggesting. If Ryan was replaced in there NOW, could the Reps salvage a win?
How bad would that ass beating be?
Yes, this is the hypothetical I was suggesting. If Ryan was replaced in there NOW, could the Reps salvage a win?
CyberMiguel
Banned
User 463088
Banned
It depends on the state, but PPP polled that, and it was an Obama win, but Trump was still getting 40-44% of the vote.
ryutaro's mama
Member
It's a hypothetical so Trump concedes, the Reps force him out, whatever. If that situation presented itself, with less than 100 days to go, could they put it off?
minor effort
Banned
I don't think he'll drop out, but the stability of the candidate and the campaign are in peril right now, especially if those recent tweets are an accurate reflection of the mood at Trump HQ.
He might not drop out, but he might be pushing up against a stunning campaign collapse where he starts cycling through campaign managers, a demoralized staff, a few big name repudiations away from a GOP leadership abandonment, and a woeful lack of money compared to Clinton.
He might still be running by November, but who knows what the campaign will look like.
Maybe if he was the nominee and favourite, but not now, damage is done to the whole party.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
That's not what the congressional polling shows. They are outperforming Trump.
NullPointer
Member
Almost?
Salvos of torpedoes have struck. The ship is in flames. Life rafts are already in the water, making their long way to dry land. Nearby vessels are turning off their radios and pretending not to hear the SOS.
I can't even watch it. There is 30s of content then 2min of commercials.
Man Called Aerodynamics
Member
No. They would essentially be conceding at that point.
Nobody. This is just baseless speculation.
User 463088
Banned
And, again, I know no one likes the unsexy parts of campaigning, but there is no way a valid candidate can hop on the stage with 98 days left and expect to win. There would be no fundraising in place. There would be no staff. You have no ads. You have no analytics or ground game.
In a perfect world, you would inherit something from the previous candidate. But Trump has none of this already. Neither the RNC or DNC are structured (or funded) in such a way to build a campaign from nothing post-convention.
In a perfect world, you would inherit something from the previous candidate. But Trump has none of this already. Neither the RNC or DNC are structured (or funded) in such a way to build a campaign from nothing post-convention.
Justin Bailey
------ ------
lol - I'm trying to give them the benefit of the doubt at this point.
Time to make that Clinton endorsement, John.
This reads like someone trying to reach the minimum word count in an essay but with no finesse whatsoever.
Right. And that's on the basis that it happens today. Trump would hold on to it as long as possible. I would think it would be another month at minimum before anything like this could happen.
minor effort
Banned
Yeah. In the unlikely event this did happen, the GOP would put somebody up as a face-saving measure, but nobody would expect them to win. Most money would wind up going to salvage downticket races.
Smokey_Run
Member
I think she's already made up her mind and will be at CNN when her contract expires. She made a trip over to their setup during the DNC late one night and was hanging out. So no fucks given anymore for her.
The voters NOMINATED trump as their candidate! It's what they wanted. It's their choice. There's no way the entire base is just gonna fall in line and put all their energy behind a newly appointed non-elected candidate whom they are not as intimately familiar with. A rando propped up GOP candidate would probably cause even lower turn out, not higher.
My thoughts exactly. It needs to be all but inevitable before I begin to enjoy it.
Sweeney Tom
Banned
This is honestly spectacular to watch
I thought the reactions after both of Obama's wins were incredible. The last full 2 months alone might very well have topped it, and we still have 3 more months
I thought the reactions after both of Obama's wins were incredible. The last full 2 months alone might very well have topped it, and we still have 3 more months
Bruce Springsteen
Member
God bless Trump for destroying the Republican Party
It switched to Hannity and now my soul is angry.
exmachina64
Banned
A member of the House of Representatives spends 90% of their time campaigning. Their terms are only two years, so they have no breathing room.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
But... after all this, what if this guy wins the election...?
Gary Mitchell is going to overtake Gary Johnson in the polls?
rokkerkory
Member
I hope mccain says he will not vote for him
BFIB
Member
Hearing that established Republicans are lining up a large revolt within the next 24-72 hrs in the other thread.
Already had a few established Republicans pledge to Hillary today.
n0razi
Member
If he still somehow wins, he will be called a genius
But... after all this, what if this guy wins the election...?
Oh god, someone needs to edit trump's face onto his.
Man.. this is just way too weird..
Ok.. so I'm thinking on voting night.. he's gonna come clean
"America.. over the last year.. I lied.. I lied to show you how divided america really is.. and it's time to come clean.. I am a democrat, always been a Democrat, I've said mean, ridiculous things and certain populations ate it all up.. we have to do better as a country.."
Ok.. so I'm thinking on voting night.. he's gonna come clean
"America.. over the last year.. I lied.. I lied to show you how divided america really is.. and it's time to come clean.. I am a democrat, always been a Democrat, I've said mean, ridiculous things and certain populations ate it all up.. we have to do better as a country.."
water_wendi
Water is not wet!
The Republicans wish this were the case. The truth is that the GOP is the party of hate mongering, war mongering, and fear mongering. Thats why Trump was successful in securing the Republican nomination.
Glass Shark
Banned
It's kind of hilarious to see the GOP, a party that used to be all about strength and unity and patriotism and power, be reduced to childish slap fights.
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