As if car/truck drivers and unemployment are solely American things. Driving a truck is in no way an unskilled job. It's just highly specialized. You think you could just get behind the wheel of one of those 18 wheelers and drive it fine? Not likely. There is also no proof that driving a truck could be easily be done better by a robot. Transporting cargo has a lot of logistical challenges that aren't easily programmed for. What happens if a robot driven truck driving hazardous materials gets in to an accident? Wait a couple hours for humans to show up?
What's likely to happen is platooning, so a human will be in one of every X trucks as a supervisory role. This is something that is actually an old goal that's been tested and passed in trials in Nevada, for example. Unless my memory is fuzzy, trials were done at least two years ago. Going between state lines might be what's holding mass adoption of this approach. In states like California for example, they mandate that all driverless vehicles have steering wheels. The pilot I'm thinking of had the driver use a tablet, so no wheel is what would prevent it from being used in California.
But for the sake of argument, let's imagine a platooning system of five cars. There are
very clear problems to see here.
- Four of the five trucks are unmanned; that's four people out of that labor. This is how you can gut people from the most employed occupation in the United States with an eventual phasing out.
- The remaining driver is not only
not going to be making more money due to the other people gone -- incomes have rarely spiked upwards when downsizing on human capital unless you're a rentier -- they are also sure as shit are going to be paid less than they currently are as more of what they do is being passed off to the machine. Our culture has always been a "work more, get less" type of commodification system for the last three decades, at least. That is, unless you're not a laborer, then you don't need to work and just get more.
To expand the above with numbers, in San Francisco, I believe it's $41,000 as a starting salary for a truck driver. Otto's driverless truck, for reference, is $30,000. In terms of math and costs, there's enough incentive in the world to do this, and the only major obstacle at present is a normalization of the technology in scope and efficiency. That's a target of when, not if.
I wonder how many millions Uber spent lobbying for this.
The technology isn't ready going by their unfortunate test. The first fatal accident produced by their self driving cars will be the end of it.
They rushed it on cars largely because they want to get out of the whole employing people but not considering them actual employees thing that they're trying to do. Their test with their cars was shooting from the hip. Lyft is at least doing it right with a slower, more controlled pilot.