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[Huw_Dawson]

David Cameron on the need to avoid 'extreme Brexit':

See, everyone shouted about the Lib Dems being indistinguishable from the Tories back in the Coalition, so now even David Cameron is confused.

Silly Cameron, you vote *Lib Dem* if you want to avoid an extreme Brexit. You vote *Tory* if you want a bonkers deal.

I love that Election Game website.

 

[Pandy]

Those polls are maddening.

 

[Royal_Phalanx]

"These policies are great! I'd totally vote for them! Oh wait, it's a Corbyn policy? Nah, he's a damn communist, strong and stable May all the way"

 

[Huw_Dawson]

It illustrates the core Labour problem: it is irrelevant if you have good policy if you can't spin. Corbyn is seen as weak, his party as divided and the entire Labour movement as chaotic. That is not something that inspires confidence.

The worrying thing is what happens if Corbyn gets 30% of the vote, say. He can lose loads of seats, but if he can get generally about the same amount of votes then he'll stay on.

Five more years of Corbyn-esque Labour would seriously, undoubtedly kill the party. The death knell will happen if you really did get the PLP splitting.

 

[DavidDesu]

It illustrates the core Labour problem: it is irrelevant if you have good policy if you can't spin. Corbyn is seen as weak, his party as divided and the entire Labour movement as chaotic. That is not something that inspires confidence.

The worrying thing is what happens if Corbyn gets 30% of the vote, say. He can lose loads of seats, but if he can get generally about the same amount of votes then he'll stay on.

Five more years of Corbyn-esque Labour would seriously, undoubtedly kill the party. The death knell will happen if you really did get the PLP splitting.

5 years of the Brexit aftermath and the very real threat of the break up of the United Kingdom (freeeeeedoooommmm and the Tories could lose a shit load of support very easily. Brexit will be a disaster and many people hopefully will come to their senses. Tories can only Tory so long before people realise how shit the Tories are for them and their families.

 

[DECK'ARD]

5 years of the Brexit aftermath and the very real threat of the break up of the United Kingdom (freeeeeedoooommmm and the Tories could lose a shit load of support very easily. Brexit will be a disaster and many people hopefully will come to their senses. Tories can only Tory so long before people realise how shit the Tories are for them and their families.

"We're not the Tories" isn't enough, not while there is the inkling the alternative could make things worse. People don't like change, and better the devil you know is very hard to overcome especially when an opposition party is seen as shambolic.

The Tories couldn't have been more unpopular by the time of John Major and the legacy of Thatcher, but they weren't kicked out as much as Tony Blair ushered in.

Imagine the scenario when Corbyn did win. Things can only get better? Not on your nelly. The feeling would be a complete leap into the unknown. And that's not what anyone is going to vote for.

Labour needed to regroup and rebrand after Gordon Brown was booted out. Instead with Ed they were just treading water, assuming power would be handed back to them by exactly what you describe. A dislike of the Tories after the effect their economic policies would have on people. It didn't happen.

This then left an opportunity for the party to be hijacked and all chance of an effective opposition went out the window and will shortly consolidate Tory power for possibly a very long time. I wouldn't say Brexit is any sure way of getting them out at all.

Labour needs to be destroyed to be rebuilt, and it needs someone who understands that to lead it and sell it.

 

[Spaghetti]

Hmm.
*poll data*

Not that this is cast-iron evidence, but it does go to show that generally people vote on personality.

... Actually, maybe it's not even that; considering May is practically devoid of any. God, maybe the media really do have the biggest impact on voting intention.

 

[Number45]

It's not necessarily personality for everyone though - it's hardly ridiculous to expect that the person ultimately responsible for running your country should be competent. While those less interested in the actual politics might buy the character assassination you've got a whole lot of other people who just don't have the confidence in him to do a good job.

 

[War Peaceman]

I don't think it is entirely wrong of people to vote on personality. If you don't believe a politician is capable of delivering on their promises then the appeal of those promises is irrelevant. That is logical.

Say what you will about May but she has the appearance of toughness and seriousness. The same campaign would not work as well with Johnson as leader, for example.

 

[Acorn]

"These policies are great! I'd totally vote for them! Oh wait, it's a Corbyn policy? Nah, he's a damn communist, strong and stable May all the way"

- Every poll

 

[phisheep]

Not that this is cast-iron evidence, but it does go to show that generally people vote on personality.

I don't think it shows that at all. It shows, if it shows anything, an appreciation of political reality - that whatever policies Labour has doesn't matter because they are not going to get in.

 

[Ushojax]

Those polls are maddening.

They shouldn't be, we have known for months and months that most of the public do not view Corbyn as a credible PM in waiting. He can have the most enticing policies in the world, people do not like the man and (rightly) do not view him as competent. If he cannot run the party, cannot even assemble a proper shadow cabinet, he could never run the country.

 

[Monty Mole]

"These policies are great! I'd totally vote for them! Oh wait, it's a Corbyn policy? Nah, he's a damn communist, strong and stable May all the way"

When you've got someone who can't lead and manage a party, never mind a country. Someone who can't negotiate with his own party's MPs to keep them in the shadow cabinet, never mind Brexit. A party with a Shadow Home Secretary who clearly isn't fit and well to do the job. And a bunch of utopian policies that could never be afforded right now without bankrupting the country, but Corbyn know this.

And listening to Thornberry last night saying it's wrong that we have foreign investors in our privatised services and utilities? That's more inward looking and Little England than the 'hard Brexit' even the Tories are proposing.

I actually have no issue with Corbyn or the ideology behind his policies, and if I went with my heart I'd be supporting him, but my head says otherwise. That said, I will be helping him by voting Lib Dems to give the Tories one less seat here.

 

[8bit]

Some jolly vandalism from somewhere.

 

[pswii60]

Some jolly vandalism from somewhere.

Typical Kettering humour.

 

[chromatic9]

What I worry about with Corbyn is can he strike a balance of taxing the "elite". Brexit is bad enough without driving business away by going after them with taxes. That's the problem, unless lots of others do it as well.

Many like to point to when Britain was the sick man of Europe but yet we're supposed to vote for Corbyn "cuz fuck the tories". Brexit and a hard left lurch could be a double disaster.

I'll probably vote Lib Dem. Labour need a centre left Blair like person to steer them. You have people within Labour who openly subscribe to Marxism, revere Lenin and Stalin.

 

[Juicy Bob]

Why would you do this.

The thing that got me was that I said one thing about Corbyn and now days later I'm still getting smug tweets from Corbyn fans abut it and I'm there like 'dude, we're all on the same side here'.

 

[Chinner]

Tory manifesto has leaked. It's one page and simply states "trust us".

May's approval rating has just broken 60%.

 

[Acorn]

Some jolly vandalism from somewhere.

Fucking hell lol

 

[DECK'ARD]

The thing that got me was that I said one thing about Corbyn and now days later I'm still getting smug tweets from Corbyn fans abut it and I'm there like 'dude, we're all on the same side here'.

I imagine they're quite rabid.

 

[Spaghetti]

I don't think it shows that at all. It shows, if it shows anything, an appreciation of political reality - that whatever policies Labour has doesn't matter because they are not going to get in.

I'd be more willing to agree if I could solidly believe an understanding of political reality was widespread among the 2017 voting base in Britain.

Some jolly vandalism from somewhere.

Ah. My favourite part of a GE. Nothing will top those 2010 Cameron posters though, they were amazing fodder for vandalism.

 

[Possumowner]

Tory manifesto has leaked. It's one page and simply states "trust us".

May's approval rating has just broken 60%.

Probably all she needs to do 😞

 

[CyclopsRock]

"fair chance at leading the country" is a weird thing to say. How are they defining "fair"? Can I have a chance at leading the country?

 

[DECK'ARD]

Probably all she needs to do 😞

Which is Labour's fault.

They've been missing open goals since the Tories came to power, and too self-interested to look outside their bubble and see what was needed to get back in power where you can actually do something.

Cameron was a proto-Blair, easy enough to take down if you had anyone with actually any gumption to do so. Especially after he and therefore the party gambled our country away for again stupid self-interest. Instead we get Corbyn happy it's happened and unable to even hide it. May is now the monster of their making.

Complete shower of fuckwits.

"fair chance at leading the country" is a weird thing to say. How are they defining "fair"? Can I have a chance at leading the country?

No.

 

[Daffy Duck]

How can there be support for tory policies when (AFAIK) there hasn't been a manifesto released????

 

[DECK'ARD]

How can there be support for tory policies when (AFAIK) there hasn't been a manifesto released????

The only policy they need is "Yeah, well look at the state of them".

 

[Uzzy]

How can there be support for tory policies when (AFAIK) there hasn't been a manifesto released????

Well we have grammer schools, fox hunting, Brexit means Brexit, Soviet era price controls and reducing net migration to the tens of thousands for the third time.

Honestly, releasing a detailed, costed manifesto isn't needed for the Tories. It'd probably just harm them later on.

 

[Meadows]

How can there be support for tory policies when (AFAIK) there hasn't been a manifesto released????

STRONG
T
A
B
L
E

 

[Miles Quaritch]

Don't feel this deserves it's own thread, but I fucking hate the planning permissions rules.

The rules are too lax for people making arse ended complaints. Nearly everyone on my road has an extension, I want one because I intend to lease my home out and some fuckers decide to complain about how it'll impact the sewage system, increase noise levels and might cause parking issues.

How the fuck are those even legitimate complaints? Everyone has a front garage on my road, how the fuck is a few more cars going to impact their ability to park? Fucking bullshit.

The sewage one is bullshit too. What if I had a family of five? How is it any different to lease my home out to five people over my having a family of five? Cunts with nothing better to do causing fucking problems.

 

[bosseye]

Don't feel this deserves it's own thread, but I fucking hate the planning permissions rules.

The rules are too lax for people making arse ended complaints. Nearly everyone on my road has an extension, I want one because I intend to lease my home out and some fuckers decide to complain about how it'll impact the sewage system, increase noise levels and might cause parking issues.

How the fuck are those even legitimate complaints? Everyone has a front garage on my road, how the fuck is a few more cars going to impact their ability to park? Fucking bullshit.

The sewage one is bullshit too. What if I had a family of five? How is it any different to lease my home out to five people over my having a family of five? Cunts with nothing better to do causing fucking problems.

Yeah, sewage one is just daft. If you've made it common knowledge you're looking to rent the property out I bet some of it will be people concerned over the type of tenants you might get in.

But it is what it is, they're allowed to voice their concerns regardless of actual validity same as you were about their extensions, if they're baseless then it won't make any difference. Maybe delay your plans a bit though.

 

[PJV3]

Well we have grammer schools, fox hunting, Brexit means Brexit, Soviet era price controls and reducing net migration to the tens of thousands for the third time.

Sounds like liberal bed-wetting nonsense.

 

[King_Moc]

Don't feel this deserves it's own thread, but I fucking hate the planning permissions rules.

The rules are too lax for people making arse ended complaints. Nearly everyone on my road has an extension, I want one because I intend to lease my home out and some fuckers decide to complain about how it'll impact the sewage system, increase noise levels and might cause parking issues.

How the fuck are those even legitimate complaints? Everyone has a front garage on my road, how the fuck is a few more cars going to impact their ability to park? Fucking bullshit.

The sewage one is bullshit too. What if I had a family of five? How is it any different to lease my home out to five people over my having a family of five? Cunts with nothing better to do causing fucking problems.

I'm involved in planning for a utility company and some of the nimby shit you see is ridiculous. Once, Sainsburys were looking to build a supermarket close to a tesco, and tesco put in a complaint that it would negatively affect the traffic. I mean, it probably would, but it was one of the least sincere things I've ever read.

 

[Spuck-uk]

Lib Dems are only seen as a viable option in a small number of seats though, right?

@Audioboxer (forgot to quote)
I think there are as many hard remain as hard leave, and Labour won't have much chance with either extreme.

It depends. I'm hard remain, and I'm voting Labour.

No party is promising to outright reject Brexit anyway.

 

[Timbuktu]

I'm involved in planning for a utility company and some of the nimby shit you see is ridiculous. Once, Sainsburys were looking to build a supermarket close to a tesco, and tesco put in a complaint that it would negatively affect the traffic. I mean, it probably would, but it was one of the least sincere things I've ever read.

I have found it a bit ironic how much the nimby use change.org to campaign for 'no change' (unless its for them).

 

[Spuck-uk]

Not that those being polled would necessarily know, but it is legal to kill urban foxes. Just not on horseback or with a pack of dogs.



Is the very nature of the youth vote not that it remains untapped, across elections and even (broadly speaking) across nations? Is Labour better off not going after established voters than those who historically cannot be relied upon? Genuine question.

An uptick in youth (student) turnout gave the Lib Dems their strongest election inforever (before they sold them down the river and poisoned that well)

 

[Pandy]

The laughing guy on Question Time....jesus.

I didn't watch it myself, but probably worth pointing out that a Tory councillor was allowed to ask a question and comment.
https://twitter.com/CatMackenzieSNP/status/862801339616825345

Now of course the fellow might have lied to the production staff, but keep an eye out for an apology from the BBC if you want to know how fair and impartial they are during this campaign.

 

[Monty Mole]

Tory manifesto leak?

 

[Spuck-uk]

Here's my election predictions:

Tories win, but not by as much as they wanted. Brexit continues to be an absolute farce to the detriment of everybody.

Labour maintain the same vote share as 2015, maybe up 1-2%. This is presented as the biggest calamity in the history of politics. Corbyn resigns, and is replaced by someone who lurches to the centre, appealing to absolutely nobody. In 2020 they get even less of the vote.

Lib Dems gain 2 seats, their supporters treat it as if they won the world cup. Nobody else notices or cares. Tim Farron still doesn't get to be on telly.

UKIP ceases to be relevant, Big Nige is still on TV every week somehow.


Hope is a lie.

 

[Audioboxer]

I didn't watch it myself, but probably worth pointing out that a Tory councillor was allowed to ask a question and comment.
https://twitter.com/CatMackenzieSNP/status/862801339616825345

Now of course the fellow might have lied to the production staff, but keep an eye out for an apology from the BBC if you want to know how fair and impartial they are during this campaign.

Sheesh, that FB post supposedly from him about the NHS in the comments.

Tory manifesto leak?

Do they even justified text?

 

[Maledict]

Well we have grammer schools, fox hunting, Brexit means Brexit, Soviet era price controls and reducing net migration to the tens of thousands for the third time.

Honestly, releasing a detailed, costed manifesto isn't needed for the Tories. It'd probably just harm them later on.

You need a manifesto to get things through the lords, where the conservatives still don't have a majority. If it's not in a manifesto, then by convention the lords can keep blocking it for a long time.

 

[Spuck-uk]

What I worry about with Corbyn is can he strike a balance of taxing the "elite". Brexit is bad enough without driving business away by going after them with taxes. That's the problem, unless lots of others do it as well.

Many like to point to when Britain was the sick man of Europe but yet we're supposed to vote for Corbyn "cuz fuck the tories". Brexit and a hard left lurch could be a double disaster.

I'll probably vote Lib Dem. Labour need a centre left Blair like person to steer them. You have people within Labour who openly subscribe to Marxism, revere Lenin and Stalin.

You say this like it's a bad thing, interesting. (More of a Bakunin disciple personally, but Kapital is one of the most important books ever written)

 

[PJV3]

Tory manifesto leak?

That's more likely a transcript of pillow talk between the May's when they snuggle up at night.

 

[-Plasma Reus-]

My election result:

. End Result:
Your Independent candidate is elected. Your one vote made the difference!
No one party achieves a majority in the Election. Unable to form a parliament, the Queen offers your new MP the job of Prime Minister, which she accepts.
After enacting some questionable policies (such as half-hourly bin collections, cycle paths for every road, and employing the “dishy” Judge Rinder as Justice Secretary) she finally finds her feet, becoming more universally popular than Margaret Thatcher and replacing her as the yardstick for lazy tabloid comparisons for future women PMs.
After 7 consecutive terms, she draws her last breath and dies in office. A gold statue to commemorate her is built in place of the London Eye.

I got to this by defecting to Tories, then stabbing them in the back by voting for another candidate.

 

[Daffy Duck]

Sheesh, that FB post supposedly from him about the NHS in the comments.



Do they even justified text?

They don't need to justify themselves to anyone, not even Word.

 

[CyclopsRock]

An uptick in youth (student) turnout gave the Lib Dems their strongest election inforever (before they sold them down the river and poisoned that well)

Worth remembering that they actually lost seats in that election.

 

[Spuck-uk]

Worth remembering that they actually lost seats in that election.

Well, right you are

 

[Monty Mole]

Sheesh, that FB post supposedly from him about the NHS in the comments.



Do they even justified text?

No, the Labour manifesto document leaked yesterday didn't have justified text.

 

[TimmmV]

Worth remembering that they actually lost seats in that election.

Dat FPTP

Although equally, you could say its worth remembering they were in a coalition government, so i think the point still stands there

 

[Billy_Pilgrim]

We got about 48 hours of manifesto positivity, so naturally captain dickhead is now moving onto his pet-project stuff, namely the most toxic of foreign policies.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Worth remembering that they actually lost seats in that election.

Yup, I'd personally put 2010 as a worse election for us than 2005, despite the uptick in the vote. 1997 was still our best-ever performance considering how easy it would have been for us to have been swept up. Ashdown and Kennedy were two outstanding politicians.

FWIW my prediction for this election as it stands today -

Tories - landslide. 180 seat majority. It will take two more years for the Tory con to really hit home.
Labour - polls over-estimate their final support by maybe 2 percent or so. They get a couple less points than Milliband did, but lose marginals to the Tories across the country. Corbyn sticks on as leader, causing the worst crisis in Labour since the war against Militant.
LDs - Anywhere from 10 to 25 seats, based on how well we do once the manifestos are out and the debates/town halls/interviews conclude.
Greens - Someone wins an award for their PPB, which is one of the best I've seen. Lucas continues to be their sole MP (but Bristol West is close.)
SNP - Bad night, Sturgeon says that 2015 was an unusual election and they were expecting losses. They wipe out Labour but lose grounds to Lib Dems and Tories.
Wales - Carwyn Jones does the impossible and avoids a collapse. Tory inroads, but not as bad as expected. Brecon and Radnorshire ends up a close race, as does Cardiff Central.
NI - Alliance sneak back in in in Belfast East, which cheers up Lib Dem activists across the country. Huzzah for DUP/UUP vote splitters!

Portillo moment: Clive Lewis losing his seat is too obvious. As much as it pains me, I think if we have one it'll be a Lib Dem - Norman Lamb.

I think the LDs are the least stable party this election to predict, and that's extremely irritating. It would only take one major piece of bad news to totally sink us. But if folks actually tune into the TV stuff, we have the most to prove. That said, I don't think the ITV interview with Farron was that strong.

We're also living through Maymania. This is entirely deliberate. They've stolen "I Agree with Nick" - "Theresa May's Team."

Absolutely critical this election is going to be if the UKIP vote turns out. Indeed, turnout is going to be crucial across the country. If Leave voters stay home, then this entire election could turn on its head. Remember that the projection after the locals had the Tories on a far worse position - 38%.