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[Par Score]

There's a big portion of Don't Knows in the polls who appear to be Lab/Lib waverers. They're mostly younger (20-40) women with a past history of voting Labour. At least on the base evidence available, there's not going to be an undecided break for the Conservatives unless something crazy happens - their voters are pretty set.

So, along these lines, YouGov have done some Labour marginals polling.

Now, isn't that interesting.

It looks like Labour could massively outperform their national polling because people like their Labour MPs, even if they don't like Corbyn. And people think a Tory majority is better for the country, but worse for them.

 

[Spuck-uk]

Don't forget that May also sits out TV debates, and fills 'public' events with paid audience members because opinion of her will only go down otherwise. It's only a couple of notches down the ladder from the crap Trump pulls in that regard.

I wonder when we'll get our first speech from May with paid clappers in the audience.

She got torn to shreds by someone with learning difficulties on TV and looked absolutely terrified at the thought of communicating with them.

 

[31GhostsIV]

She got torn to shreds by someone with learning difficulties on TV and looked absolutely terrified at the thought of communicating with them.

I just watched that. May manages to come across far more awkwardly than Corbyn, but she gets away with it somehow. Just like my MP will get away with telling a student to 'fuck off back to scotland'.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

It looks like Labour could massively outperform their national polling because people like their Labour MPs, even if they don't like Corbyn. And people think a Tory majority is better for the country, but worse for them.

I don't know about massively - these are marginal seats where Labour is most active, and they're still two points behind the Tories. As you'd expect, a lot of Lib Dem voters are tactically backing Labour.

Also it got me to raise an eyebrow that in these Labour-Tory marginals Farron is only liked by 1% less voters than Corbyn. These are areas of the country with low Lib Dem presence and have Labour MPs!

 

[Ghost]

Theresa May is out and about today trying to act like a human and talk to the plebs in the street. It's going about as well as you'd expect.

Sad when the leading voice on anti-austerity in the country is an old lady with learning disabilities stopping the prime minister on the street.



Interesting video I saw this morning about cognitive bias that for me sums up why the Lib Dems & Labour are doing so badly at breaking through with Brexit & Austerity arguments, basically comes down to the idea that a lot of people won't change their opinion based on facts without some emotional primer (such as nostalgia) to 'open them up' to changing their mind. It's only 5 minutes long and it's narrated by Stephen Fry so give it a watch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rW9R6jgE7SQ

 

[War Peaceman]

I don't know about massively - these are marginal seats where Labour is most active, and they're still two points behind the Tories. As you'd expect, a lot of Lib Dem voters are tactically backing Labour.

Also it got me to raise an eyebrow that in these Labour-Tory marginals Farron is only liked by 1% less voters than Corbyn. These are areas of the country with low Lib Dem presence and have Labour MPs!

this is the most hilarious spin you've managed yet, bravo

 

[Audioboxer]

Politicians are supposed to serve the people, yet the current (and likely next) PM isn't comfortable in front of the people when she can't control the narrative. It also means she can say 'strong and stable' instead of putting forward any actual policies an get away with it.

Wait....

No way... I was just talking about this muppet!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...erendum-scottish-national-party-a7735311.html

Just a joke bro. I mean, instead of engaging and asking why or saying you don't think it's the right path and here is why, this is the response from an MP to a teenager. Sheesh.

Theresa May is out and about today trying to act like a human and talk to the plebs in the street. It's going about as well as you'd expect.

Also just a joke bro... We truly care Cathy.

Prime examples of why many of the Tories collapse when they can't control the narrative, questions and environment. Responses just come out as utter contempt for anyone below them on the food chain.

 

[Theonik]

Sad when the leading voice on anti-austerity in the country is an old lady with learning disabilities stopping the prime minister on the street.

What I find more amazing is that this basically went down like a scene from 'The Thick of it'

 

[JonathanEx]

A brilliant clip.

Also good to know she doesn't distinguish between learning difficulties and mental health. Yeah sure I trust they'll do anything good for people like her who they've cut funding towards.


Seeing her response touched a nerve with me actually, I had a lot of support when younger for learning difficulties stuff and am now in a place that most people I meet have no idea there's something up. I'm lucky, but I got here because of that support. And people should have access to it, in many forms.

 

[D4Danger]

from Guardian political reporter

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/864106117533757440

well that backfired almost immediately. back to pre approved questions.

 

[Meadows]

While the public are entitled to their opinions and it's good for politicians to face the public, I do find it irksome that many just choose to shout at them and not let them respond.

 

[JonathanEx]

While the public are entitled to their opinions and it's good for politicians to face the public, I do find it irksome that many just choose to shout at them and not let them respond.

That's true. It's a bit of a one-way gripe exchange, but then again you could be forgiven the public thinking politicians spend all their time talking at the public rather than listening. You can still roast them while letting them attempt to respond.

 

[Ghost]

While the public are entitled to their opinions and it's good for politicians to face the public, I do find it irksome that many just choose to shout at them and not let them respond.

This is true but it's also pretty irksome that this is the only time May will come face to face with the consequences of austerity, so I think her feeling uncomfortable for 45 seconds isn't really that bad compared to the permanent damage her policies are doing to some members of the public.

 

[Hazzuh]

YouGov have done a regional breakdown of changes 2015->2017 :

For the first time in this election, YouGov reveals the voting intention picture in each British government office region. The fieldwork, conducted from April 24 to May 5, shows:

The Conservative vote share is up, sometimes dramatically so, since the last general election in every region of the UK.
Labour are down on their 2015 vote haul in every region of the UK except the South West and South East where they were already performing poorly.
The Liberal Democrat vote share is up in most regions, but only by small margins.
UKIP's vote share is down seven to ten points in all regions except Scotland and London, where they were already performing poorly.

 

[JonathanEx]

ITV have a live interview with May with questions from the public on their Facebook right now. Peston's hosting, but uh, I wouldn't recommend watching. It's very softball and no pressure on her to actually answer any of these or provide detail.

 

[empyrean]

Trying to spin fox hunting as a form of controlling he fox population saying other methods are cruel...

 

[Cronen]

Trying to spin fox hunting as a form of controlling he fox population saying other methods are cruel...

Just saw this. Madness.

 

[Spuck-uk]

this is the most hilarious spin you've managed yet, bravo

If I had a party I adhered to like a sports team, I'd be taking any sort of good news compared to the drubbing the dems are getting in the polls.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

this is the most hilarious spin you've managed yet, bravo

No, I'm being serious. I'd expect us to be doing much worse in leadership polls in this area - they're areas where we have almost no shot of winning. But if you look at the ratio, Corbyn is 22:63 whereas Farron is 21:38. Corbyn has a ratio of .34, Farron has a ratio of .55 - that's more popular, but only amongst those that have an opinion. My expectation would be a much lower number of people having a positive opinion. Maybe I was too skeptical. What it shows is that, once again, there seems to be good grounds for the Lib Dems gaining voter share amongst Labour voters - generally speaking liking the leader is a good indicator on one day supporting the party.

Other good news for Lib Dems in the Yougov regional polls: our target seats are in the South, but especially the South East, London and the East of England, plus the greater Bristol area (as much as I'd like a resurgence in St Ives it's not going to happen). We're not seeing any seriously worrying signs - the question has to be, in the South East region for example, "is this concentrated in the areas we are likely to win, or is this not concentrated and is not indicative of us gaining seats"?

If I had a party I adhered to like a sports team, I'd be taking any sort of good news compared to the drubbing the dems are getting in the polls.

That's not really fair on me - I'm not a passive fan shouting from the sidelines, I'm out knocking on doors and delivering leaflets. Plus I like stats.

 

[Audioboxer]

YouGov have done a regional breakdown of changes 2015->2017 :

I have to believe Labour voters in Scotland switching to Conservative is purely to do with Unionism/opposing indyref2. Otherwise

At the very least if it's about the union, I get it. It's a single issue vote. I expect some SNP voters from 2015 to value the union over anything that causes them to vote SNP. If anyone in Labour Scotland is actually reading into what Tory policy will be and thinking this is fucking excellent, lemme switch from Labour, wut.

I guess some of the Scottish Labour Leave voters might be switching to Conservative for Brexit too. Seeing as in the rUK this is somewhat being painted as a vote for Brexit 2.0.

 

[It's Reyn Time!]

A brilliant clip.

Also good to know she doesn't distinguish between learning difficulties and mental health. Yeah sure I trust they'll do anything good for people like her who they've cut funding towards.


Seeing her response touched a nerve with me actually, I had a lot of support when younger for learning difficulties stuff and am now in a place that most people I meet have no idea there's something up. I'm lucky, but I got here because of that support. And people should have access to it, in many forms.

"We've got a lot of plans for people with mental health problems" is probably the only true thing she's said in months. 'Killing then by the hundreds or thousands' is technically a plan.

 

[D4Danger]

Trying to spin fox hunting as a form of controlling he fox population saying other methods are cruel...

mental. I don't know if you could think of a crueler way to kill a fox than chase it with dogs and then let them rip it apart.

 

[D4Danger]

A brilliant clip.

Also good to know she doesn't distinguish between learning difficulties and mental health. Yeah sure I trust they'll do anything good for people like her who they've cut funding towards.

Seeing her response touched a nerve with me actually, I had a lot of support when younger for learning difficulties stuff and am now in a place that most people I meet have no idea there's something up. I'm lucky, but I got here because of that support. And people should have access to it, in many forms.

Mencap have commented about this

I have a learning disability and I have disability benefits. Like Cathy, many people with a learning disability are scared of changes to their disability benefits and are understandably angry. I was really worried to hear Theresa May keep talking about mental health, when Cathy said she has a learning disability, which is not anything to do with mental health. That makes me think that Theresa May is unclear on the difference, and that is very worrying."
Ismail Kaji
Parliamentary affairs support officer, Mencap

 

[It's Reyn Time!]

Just like how they keep banging on about getting disabled people into work whenever they're confronted about DLA/PIP, two benefits which aren't means tested and have nothing to do with the employability of the person claiming them.

 

[Empty]

i see the other tory promise on workers rights is rubbish too.

re: promise to mandate workers representation on boards

it's like she's in a competition to see what's the weakest policy that the press will still uncritically trumpet as MAY PARKS HER TANKS ON LABOURS LAWN

 

[Xando]

Facebook live going well for Theresa May

 

[JonathanEx]

Hello it's time for me to become our resident media news nerd again.

C4 + Sky News teaming up for 'Battle for Number 10' interviews again. Paxo to grill both of them, with Faisal to do audience questions.

You may remember that the Brexit edition of this format was awkwardly recorded in the lobby at Sky, as Harry Hill had the main studio booked in advance. You may think this is an irrelevant aside. It is, I just wanted to bring it up because it amused me.


What else from C4? Sadly, no series from Hamilton/Jenkins but to be honest I can't blame them with the timings.

Last Leg is back this week (series has been brought forward), and a 2 hour 'The Results' special the day after the vote.

The Fake News Show is a panel show that's back but meh.

Alternative Election Night with Paxman and Mitchell is also inexplicably back, but this year with added Richard Osman as third host.

Full details: http://www.channel4.com/info/press/news/jeremy-paxman-to-interview-theresa-may-and-jeremy-corbyn

 

[Pandy]

[IMG]http://elections.newstatesman.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Chart.png[/IMG]

The Cardiff University study examined bulletins on Channel 5 at 5pm, Channel 4 at 7pm and at 10pm on BBC, ITV and Sky News.
http://elections.newstatesman.com/the-650/the-tories-are-the-big-winners-in-the-tv-airtime-war-and-the-greens-the-biggest-losers/

Of course, the campaign has only just begun, but it would appear the Conservatives have been most successful in conveying their message on the most watched television news bulletin. BBC News at Ten regularly attracts four more million viewers – more than double ITV’s nightly bulletin – and more people tune in than Sky News, Channel 4 and 5 audiences combined.

The UK’s “due impartiality” guidelines make clear that broadcasters do not have to stop-watch coverage to ensure equal time across the parties. And new Ofcom guidelines – now also responsible for the regulation of BBC news – no longer designate major parties during election campaigns. It is, in short, news judgements that drive editorial decisions.

 

[Audioboxer]

Those figures actually seem "alright". I mean the whole of the UK is pretty much fighting between Labour vs Conservative. Scotland is the exemption, but okay, the SNP are of no interest to England/Wales/N.Ireland.

Don't get me wrong though, some of the ways some journalists/political pundits behave around certain parties is hilarious.

 

[*Splinter]

Those figures actually seem "alright". I mean the whole of the UK is pretty much fighting between Labour vs Conservative. Scotland is the exemption, but okay, the SNP are of no interest to England/Wales/N.Ireland.

Don't get me wrong though, some of the ways some journalists/political pundits behave around certain parties is hilarious.

They also fairly closely match current polling (BBC especially).

 

[Billy_Pilgrim]

The woman who confronted May is a hero.

 

[Par Score]

Those figures actually seem "alright". I mean the whole of the UK is pretty much fighting between Labour vs Conservative. Scotland is the exemption, but okay, the SNP are of no interest to England/Wales/N.Ireland.

Don't get me wrong though, some of the ways some journalists/political pundits behave around certain parties is hilarious.

Tories getting almost double the airtime on the BBC as Labour doesn't seem "alright" at all.

The BBC's reach is so much greater than the other channels, it's by far the most important bar on that graph.

 

[IdreamofHIME]

Facebook live going well for Theresa May

That must be all those Russians.

 

[Audioboxer]

Tories getting almost double the airtime on the BBC as Labour doesn't seem "alright" at all.

The BBC's reach is so much greater than the other channels, it's by far the most important bar on that graph.

I read it on mobile earlier while cooking dinner. Just noticed this. I correct my stance. That is a bit iffy from the BBC.

 

[Moze]

While the public are entitled to their opinions and it's good for politicians to face the public, I do find it irksome that many just choose to shout at them and not let them respond.

What do you expect when you have been fucked over for years and have a minute or two to talk to the person responsible? You can't have a reasonable discussion about disability with somebody who is knowingly and happily killing and making life a misery for disabled people. The Tories are the only major party to support policies like the WCA.

 

[AHA-Lambda]

I just watched that. May manages to come across far more awkwardly than Corbyn, but she gets away with it somehow. Just like my MP will get away with telling a student to 'fuck off back to scotland'.

wait what??

 

[Hux1ey]

Sorry I'm a bit out of the loop on all this stuff.

Why do many working class people vote tory?

 

[satriales]

Sorry I'm a bit out of the loop on all this stuff.

Why do many working class people vote tory?

It's baffling, but I put down to the scary control that they have over the media.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Sorry I'm a bit out of the loop on all this stuff.

Why do many working class people vote tory?

Because the Conservatives are perceived as the most credible party to deliver Brexit.

 

[Audioboxer]

wait what??

31GhostsIV posted it on the previous page

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=236866200&postcount=5650

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...erendum-scottish-national-party-a7735311.html

Dumb remark/just banter bro, but it's the kind of thing

a) You don't say publicly as an MP

and

b) You don't say to a teenager of all people

 

[31GhostsIV]

wait what??

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...erendum-scottish-national-party-a7735311.html

 

[Linkstrikesback]

Sorry I'm a bit out of the loop on all this stuff.

Why do many working class people vote tory?

Because it's apparently really easy to get people to vote against their own interests as long as you slander the way the other person wears their tie.

 

[Audioboxer]

 

[D4Danger]

Facebook live going well for Theresa May

 

[Royal_Phalanx]

The level of enthusiasm the working class have for Brexit is terrifying. Will they ever wake up?

 

[Audioboxer]

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Facebook live going well for Theresa May

God yes, sums up my feelings exactly.

Can't stand Robert Peston.

 

[Lego Boss]

Theresa May is out and about today trying to act like a human and talk to the plebs in the street. It's going about as well as you'd expect.

Nah. Fuck em.

Strong and stable. Killing the disabled.

 

[phisheep]

Sorry I'm a bit out of the loop on all this stuff.

Why do many working class people vote tory?

Baffles me that so many people seem to have difficulty understanding this. Labour doesn't have a monopoly on 'stuff working people like', it never has had. There have been working class Conservative voters ever since the working class got the vote. People differ. Mileage may vary.

 

[boxoctosis]

The level of enthusiasm the working class have for Brexit is terrifying. Will they ever wake up?

I expect the British working class don't think the EU has done much for them over the last 40 years, for right or wrong.