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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding
- Thread starter Jezbollah
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SuperEpicMan
Banned
Whilst it is an dicey subject to talk about, when Corbyn talks about something he is passionate about, his speeches come with a lot of conviction. I suspect he will nail this speech tbh, and it may resonate with a lot of hurting people.
Corbyn has been 6/1 to be next prime minster for a while now. Labour majority is now at 12/1. Down from 25/1 when the campaign started.
Bookies are generally pretty clueless though. Not really sure what they are basing their odds on. Yvette Cooper was by far the favourite to be next Labour leader when I checked last week. There is no reality where that makes sense.
Bookies are generally pretty clueless though. Not really sure what they are basing their odds on. Yvette Cooper was by far the favourite to be next Labour leader when I checked last week. There is no reality where that makes sense.
Billy_Pilgrim
Member
He's been giving this speech since he was in Sixth Form. Think Reagan when he worked for General Electric.
Theonik
Member
Odds are based on bets. So it works kind of like a pot of sorts.
As much as I agree with what corbyns saying about foreign policy, I think at best he'll get zero traction from this and at worst his reputation as a woolly liberal will mean this goes down really poorly with the general public who will think it means he's slagging off the troops or what's to hug a jihadist.
Little Old Man
Member
The British electorate send their regards.
Corbyn should be making tomorrow (and the weekend) all about May cuts policing budget, and attempting to get that video of her talking to the Police federation front, left and centre.
Even the brexit means brexit fruitloops on the edges of my facebook feed are spitting blood about it.
If it gains proper traction, then it'll really hurt May, and she'll have to try to defuse it.
Even the brexit means brexit fruitloops on the edges of my facebook feed are spitting blood about it.
If it gains proper traction, then it'll really hurt May, and she'll have to try to defuse it.
Have you SEEN the state of Scottish Labour recently? The SNP are more likely to support a Corbyn government than they are.
Those polls are too good. If it all goes to hell from here, I'm glad we've at least had this moment where we felt the impossible could happen. May deserves this for believing her own press and taking the electorate for granted. The election is too far away, though, to rule out a reversal.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Didn't the bookies get the 2015 election spot on?
I would be very hesitant to call bookies "generally pretty clueless"
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Gosh, Corbyn's speech is ambitious. Talking about his Libya vote and all. I know everyone's said it, but it really is make or break stuff. Can't fault him on having a mighty pair of balls.
If Labour can tie together a coherent message about foreign policy contributing towards the existence of terrorism (thereby finally exorcising the ghost of Iraq) with cuts to police contributing to the failure to prevent specific attacks, then they could have a very effective message for the rest of the campaign.
Corbyn is very good on the foreign policy stuff, it's pretty much his raison d'être, so I have no problem with him tackling that. There's plenty in Labour happy to attack Tory cuts, so that shouldn't be an issue.
It's murky waters to tread so soon after a tragedy, but under murky waters lie fertile ground.
Corbyn is very good on the foreign policy stuff, it's pretty much his raison d'être, so I have no problem with him tackling that. There's plenty in Labour happy to attack Tory cuts, so that shouldn't be an issue.
It's murky waters to tread so soon after a tragedy, but under murky waters lie fertile ground.
Theonik
Member
I think the bile spewing is starting to lose its bite somewhat. There is only so much you can smear someone before people stop believing it. It's a dangerous road to take.
Dirtyshubb
Member
I think the only hope Corbyn has is if the papers decide to continue to stick it to May and focus on her cuts and dismissive attitude and allow Corbyns speech to add fuel to it.
Of course there are bound to be some that do call him a terrorist sympathiser. Hell, May's lie during the interview the other day about Corbyn wanting unregulated immigration seems to be picking up from Reading twitter so it's really unclear how it could all go.
Of course there are bound to be some that do call him a terrorist sympathiser. Hell, May's lie during the interview the other day about Corbyn wanting unregulated immigration seems to be picking up from Reading twitter so it's really unclear how it could all go.
zonetrooper5
Member
Here's hoping for a labour government or hung parliament on June 9th.
Can't believe those voting intentions! I'm still expecting a Tory victory because every vote I voted in (2010, AV, 2015 and referendum) have resulted in a loss (Should have voted for Khan to break by losing streak!) but a reduced majority would still be pretty much egg on May's strong and stable message.
Corbyn's speech can go either way, really going to be how well he can resonate with the electorate.
Corbyn's speech can go either way, really going to be how well he can resonate with the electorate.
Camper Van Beethoven
Banned
That speech is an awful idea. It's not what people want to hear at all.
One of the things I'm very fond of him for. He called it really, that intervention there would lead to a destabilisation of the region and an increase in radicalisation and terrorism. It's basically what most rational people were saying at the time but few politicians actually bothered to raise it. I'd love him to get in to number 10, unrealistic but it'd be refreshing not having a Tory or Torylite elected PM. It's been a while.
Royal_Phalanx
Member
I hope Corbyn doesn't fuck it all up by making a terrible speech tomorrow.
Herr Schwarz
Banned
I'm registered to vote in a rural area, is there anywhere I can see polling from rural areas as to which party i should vote for? Like if Labour is ahead here I'll vote Labour, however if its Lib Dem i'll vote lib dem
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
We'd need to know your constituency to help you further.
Wikipedia will have all the previous results for your constituency, probably best to check and gauge from there.
Theonik
Member
This is an OK site for this purpose.
https://www.tactical2017.com/
Mind you might want to check your constituency by hand.
Herr Schwarz
Banned
Labour it is then, this will be my first vote for a party!
Coriolanus
Banned
parts of it, such as
are pretty good.
The things about wanting the government to admit that the war on terror failed and the fopo bits, tho... not the time for that.
As the EU referendum results were starting to come in, the bookies had odds of 15/1 that leave would win.
I remember a Conservative majority was 10-1, as a friend made good money off that bet, so they didn't really get that one right.
Theonik
Member
Bookies work like bad polls. They track sentiment by looking at betting.
People don't like losing money so bet sizes moderate with sentiment.
Putting 1 quid on a 10:1 would not move the needle much but I wouldn't put say 100 quid if I thought I would lose it.
Of course the odds themselves affect how people bet so it's not perfect, but it does give you some idea.
People don't like losing money so bet sizes moderate with sentiment.
Putting 1 quid on a 10:1 would not move the needle much but I wouldn't put say 100 quid if I thought I would lose it.
Of course the odds themselves affect how people bet so it's not perfect, but it does give you some idea.
Nah, they got it terrible wrong. As did they with Brexit. I keep up with odds often because I do like to gamble quite a bit. I specifically remember the bookies having Miliband and Cameron at the exact same odds.
Brexit was 10/1 on the day of the election (before results came in). Remain was like 1/5 or something. I remember Trump being 4/1 on the day of election too.
Camper Van Beethoven
Banned
We both know what the talking point will be after he says it. Regardless of the accuracy of his statements he becomes a terrorist sympathiser. That's going to be the narrative. He gives people far too much credit.
Pancake Mix
Copied someone else's pancake recipe
Corbyn seems to have issues regarding Northern Ireland. It's just how it is.
Will it matter to voters in 2017? Less so that it once would have, I'm sure, but that doesn't mean that it isn't holding back a few Labour votes.
Will it matter to voters in 2017? Less so that it once would have, I'm sure, but that doesn't mean that it isn't holding back a few Labour votes.
Go_Ly_Dow
Member
Yup. I'm seeing a handful of people with backgrounds in the armed services being vocal about it on my FB feed.
chromatic9
Member
What's surprising me is the constant UKIP articles on the BBC. I can understand some and having to report on all parties but hardly anyone cares about UKIP now.
Thornton Reed
Member
I've just read what corbyn is planning to say in his speech today. Although he's not wrong he is going to catch a load of shit for this. The right wing rags are going to have a field day with it
Given the latest polls not sure why he is tackling the subject tbh. Unless May goes on the offensive about it then react but not sure why he wants to do this as I can only see down sides for him.
Doctor_Thomas
Member
It's entirely based on their last election results, they have to give them time. Once this election passes, they'll never be heard of again.
I think he's completely in the right to run with it. If May missed so many things as home secretary, things that she was directly warned about, what does that say about her ability of running the entire country and leading Brexit negotiations? She's been out of her depth for the longest time and it seems only right to point it out.
"Thousands more deaths in Iraq will not make things right.
It will set off a spiral of conflict, of hate, of misery, of desperation that will fuel the wars, the conflict, the terrorism, the depression and the misery of future generations.
He's earned the right to make this speech and I've no doubt he'll nail it.
The right wing media might not agree, but fuck them, it's the right thing to be saying
It will set off a spiral of conflict, of hate, of misery, of desperation that will fuel the wars, the conflict, the terrorism, the depression and the misery of future generations.
He's earned the right to make this speech and I've no doubt he'll nail it.
The right wing media might not agree, but fuck them, it's the right thing to be saying
In that case they would need a vote share of around 42.5% to win a majority which is absolutely insane.
Depends on what you think is comfortable. I wouldn't call a 5-10 percent win margin for the tories that great if it does occur.
War Peaceman
You're a big guy.
It is really hard to argue that Corbyn is wrong on this one. It is quite clear, including in Chilcot, that the Iraq war had an important effect on domestic terrorism and radicalisation. He also has a clear record on this issue that proves his credibility.
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