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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding
- Thread starter Jezbollah
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Huw_Dawson
Member
No, North is Labour and South is Tory. I think South was a target once upon a time.
Thornton Reed
Member
any links to the speech? Would rather watch it than read the transcript. I need to say the way he's delivering it.
SymbiantXenos
Member
Warrington South (my ward) has been lib dem often.
scotcheggz
Member
If you can access the BBC news channel website, you can rewind it to the speech. It started about 11:10ish
Yeah please vote SNP in Scotland if you're happy with their policies and absolutely don't want the Tories. Labour is a wasted vote and frankly Scottish Labour are an absolute shower of c....
Good to hear Corbyn made a good speech.
I've been thinking just how abject Tory failures have been. Over and over. Yet the media always gives the view that somehow the Tories are the default responsible leadership. It's a joke. They always talk about Corbyn as if he lives in cloud cuckoo land yet what he stands for was perfectly alright not that long ago. Socially responsible decent ideas like protecting the NHS and not getting into messy pointless and self defeating wars. Stuff that when people are polled on policy gets strong support but weirdly which parties like the Tories never stand for.
I really hope the Tories keep fucking up, I would be ecstatic about Corbyn getting in and us rebalancing the nation after its huge lurch rightwards.
If they do it probably puts off a Scottish referendum for a while and that is still something I want.. but it'd be worth it to see the UK as a whole not slide into the totalitarian ambitions of the Tories.
Good to hear Corbyn made a good speech.
I've been thinking just how abject Tory failures have been. Over and over. Yet the media always gives the view that somehow the Tories are the default responsible leadership. It's a joke. They always talk about Corbyn as if he lives in cloud cuckoo land yet what he stands for was perfectly alright not that long ago. Socially responsible decent ideas like protecting the NHS and not getting into messy pointless and self defeating wars. Stuff that when people are polled on policy gets strong support but weirdly which parties like the Tories never stand for.
I really hope the Tories keep fucking up, I would be ecstatic about Corbyn getting in and us rebalancing the nation after its huge lurch rightwards.
If they do it probably puts off a Scottish referendum for a while and that is still something I want.. but it'd be worth it to see the UK as a whole not slide into the totalitarian ambitions of the Tories.
I posted it at the time, but as you've mentioned it again, I'll post it again. Kezia's best moment in politics by an absolute mile.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DorfplPwYRU
I still find it super weird that this isn't a bigger deal South of the border.
Audioboxer
Member
Brexit will still be a shit show whoever is in charge. Labour just slightly less so. What Corbyn would have to show the people in Scotland as well is Labour will actually manage to turn the UK into what the manifesto says. Let us not forget we've had some absolutely abysmal Labour governments in recent years. Wars/privatisation and ridiculous spending.
There's still a lot of Tory-lite on those Labour benches as well. Corbyn has about 9,000 knives in his back and counting.
Right now the UK needs Labour to win to stem the tide of the country continuing to go to shit and the damage being ever more difficult for us and our children to reverse. Like yourself, though, I still think a better future for us would be away from having to constantly hope and rely on a divided Labour party somehow challenging the Tories. Even if May fucks all of this up, I seriously doubt the Tories are reinventing themselves anytime soon.
For sure, just a shame about Dugdale a lot of the rest of the time. She gets bullied by Davidson, and I'd argue someone like Corbyn is even a better leader than her (and Corbyn is no hot show on the "leadership" front).
As for why it's not making more waves in the South, I'll speculate it's just one of those things the "majority" Conservative country shrug off. Brexit, fox hunting and immigration are far more important.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
This is constituency dependent. He might live in Renfrewshire East or Edinburgh North and Leith or East Lothian or Paisley and Renfrewshire South or Aberdeen South and so on.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Good God, the independent on BBC News right is ripping apart Corbyn's speech.
Audioboxer
Member
It's Edinburgh South that comes up Labour here. Everywhere else pretty much comes up SNP.
https://www.tactical2017.com/
Unless you just mean who is contesting those seats, and sure, it's mostly Labour/SNP in those areas. However, Edinburgh was one of the strongest NO votes in 2014, so do not underestimate the Unionist unifying in Edinburgh to possibly swing Conservative, away from Labour.
Ravenscraig put in a Conservative councillor in the local elections. It's not speculation Labour Unionists are switching to Conservative, it's fact. The whole extent of campaigning in Scotland has pretty much been vote for us to oppose indyref2. I don't even think I've seen Brexit mentioned once (would be risky up here anyway, given the remain vote). Labour fell way behind the Tories for the Unionist campaigning up here, and haven't recovered.
Huw_Dawson
Member
It is weird how many duff photos of Farron there are out there.
If I'm allowed to make a prediction by the way, I'll make three.
1. It turns out that these non-voters and LD->Lab swing voters that Corbyn is picking up are either not in the right seats, and thus make no difference, or fade away before the GE, Cleggmania style. The Tories still sweep Labour heartland seats in the North and come
away with a 50 seat majority. Tory weakness allows the LDs to hold a couple of their weak Leave seats, and unionist tactical voting and heavily targeted campaigns deliver a raise to about 10-20 seats. All things considered, it's a good result for everyone. Corbyn is vindicated as leader of his party, as he prevented electoral collapse by stepping up when the election hit. Farron gets a more respectable bloc of MPs. The Tories get a slightly sturdier majority. The SNP are still the dominant third party, but electoral maps do not look quite as silly.
2. The LD->Lab swing voters head home, boosting the LDs up to about 13% in the polls before election day. Corbyn loses worse, the LDs maybe gain one more seat. This would be an indication of tactical voting failing. Otherwise same as #1 with Corbyn looking shakier.
3. The Tory vote continues to slide down to about where Labour are. The press start using the words "Hung Parliament." All eyes fall on the kingmakers of Sturgeon and Farron. This is by far the scariest position for Farron to be in. Both he and Sturgeon will be equidistant from the two blocs. The small number of LD target seats become extremely important, as do the SNP defences.
If there's a hung parliament, we're looking at Brexit negotiations started with absolutely no unity at home.
An election by Christmas would be certain.
Thornton Reed
Member
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
That's just selected the biggest non-Conservative party in each constituency. There are many more constituencies which are Lab/SNP races that the Conservatives do not have especially good chances in, and where the meaningful choice is Lab/SNP. Telling people to vote SNP in those seats to avoid letting the Conservatives in is a deceptive way getting their vote.
Little Old Man
Member
On the whole, a good speech, espeically the line on rebuilding police numbers, and offering more support to the security services. While I agree with the general sentiment of 'talking to your enemies' and that eventually in the vast majority of wars/conflicts/terrorism, a resolution and a dialogue need to be formed to resolve matters, it's a very easy line for critics to rip into. Plus, he didn't really specify if he would, nor indeed who he would talk to in that case specifically for ISIS. Then again he was just expressing his general views on the subject as a whole, not a detailed strategy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JR_3d29XE9k
Sky picked a really very unfortunate picture of Farron to use here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JR_3d29XE9k
It was better in my head, but the delivery was fine.
Nevertheless, it was absolutely necessary that this happened today after the bile of the UKIP manifesto launch yesterday.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
made me laugh.
Coriolanus
Banned
other way around. isis fully expects foreign hordes to invade "their" lands.
corbo's approach is the worst-case scenario for them. Can't have the Final Showdown if the other side never shows up.
Literally impossible, given that, unlike Greece, the UK has control over its own currency.
TomWaitsForNoMan
Banned
Spuck-uk
Banned
"Shat myself a bit there, didn't think it would follow through.
It's fine though.
It's fine."
Linkstrikesback
Member
Alright, now I've got to know the context behind those photos. Why was Farron posing with tescos milk?
Huw_Dawson
Member
IS is just one group, though. You have the Al-Qaeda inspired groups, for example.
And again, if IS is expecting some great final showdown and victory for their extremist view of Islam, it's incredulous to expect we can talk them down. If we don't participate in getting rid of them, either some other country will fill our place or they'll hang around and directly inspire more terrorist acts.
One of the all-time great Lib Dem PR mysteries. Like how we thought "look left, look right, go forwards" was a good campaign slogan.
Four people turned up with coffee, three with tea, and as leader he was the only one that remembered to bring milk.
I have no idea.
I actually got a Lib Dem leaflet through the door today that said they will oppose a hard Brexit (secondary to opposing a "divisive referendum" of course but it's something). Got a Labour one in which has a really tiny mention of opposing a hard Brexit in between 6(!) mentions of "divisive referendum". It also gets bonus points for parroting Ruth Davidson's "Sturgeon needs to get back to her day job" spiel. They're all trying hard to get unionist votes but it's either the SNP or the Tories where I live :/
JonathanEx
Member
I think a Fairtrade thing?
TomWaitsForNoMan
Banned
The only context I have is
Every photo of his looks like he should be holding up today's newspaper
Coriolanus
Banned
Al-Qaeda, you say?
like, seriously dude, this is basic art of war, know your enemy stuff. AQ evidently knows theirs quite fucking well. The same cannot be said of the leadership of the countries it chooses to antagonize.
also no one said anything about talking them down, so how about you take that strawman down, eh?
chromatic9
Member
Farron looked pretty cool back in the day, shame what age does to some. He looks like three fried eggs.
Linkstrikesback
Member
In brighter UK poltiics related news, other than hilarious Farron photos, LBC have apparently fired Katie Hopkins after the scum tweeted about wanting a "final solution" to the terrorism problem.
One step at a time.
One step at a time.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Corbyn's comment was that all conflicts end in talks - does that include IS?
TomWaitsForNoMan
Banned
Now they just have to get rid of Nigel Farage, Iain Dale, Stig Abell, and Nick Ferrari and they might be fit to rejoin the human race
The third option is that the military of the countries IS is operating in do something about them. Like this:
Iraqi Forces Open a Front in West Mosul, Trying to Squeeze ISIS
U.S. troops, Syrian fighters insert behind ISIS lines to retake key dam in Syria
Whilst that latter article has the US being involved, the UK being involved in getting rid of IS has no bearing on what the US does. Trump is either going to push for IS attacks or he isn't, and the UK won't really have any say in which way he goes. If he doesn't, then expect Germany and France to push for action of some sort, and again, I don't think the UK will have any determination in what goes down.
Linkstrikesback
Member
As per Jack Monroe, she was already on her way out and the timing is largely coincidental.
Audioboxer
Member
Possibly, but the fact of the matter is if you look at the local election results a good bunch of Labour Scottish voters are selling themselves to going to the Conservatives. It's not the time to just take for granted that anywhere in Scotland can only be Lab/SNP.
Unless of course, anyone wants a Tory landslide, then trying to convince Scottish voters that the Tories aren't a concern and to split votes between Lab/SNP is a good tactical move
Yeah, it's just a bit of political suicide if you put out a flyer in Scotland saying "let's have a Strong and Stable Brexit". Even the Conservative voters up here care far more about indyref now.
The Conservatives and Davidson actually played a smart game making it all about keeping the UK together and completely ignoring Brexit.
It was pretty good!
Fairplay to Farron he responded on Twitter when someone asked him about these photos:
Tim: "Taken around 2009 I think. Campaigning on diary prices and calling for fair trade for UK farmers"
So presumably he was asked to look distressed/constipated and he pulled it off brilliantly.
Coriolanus
Banned
Huw_Dawson
Member
So your argument is that Corbyn is saved from this question by using the words "almost always"?
So would Corbyn talk to IS or would he not?
If he does not want to talk with IS, he wants to continue the WoT.
If he does want to talk to IS, then... ?
Ravensmash
Member
Any kind of snap poll on the Corbyn speech?
Coriolanus
Banned
he literally said that he's willing to take whatever actions are necessary to keep your country safe.
Thus, if that is what is required, he will. If other means are required, he will do those instead.
fwiw accepting an unconditional surrender = talking to the enemy.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Only super political anoraks like us saddle actually watch speeches. At best you could have a focus group. It takes a few days for received opinion to disseminate out, so you'll have to wait.
Either you want a yes or no answer to your question, or you except that "almost always" means something here.
Screaming Meat
Unconfirmed Member
Does he have to continue (specifically) the 'War on Terror' even if he doesn't want to talk with IS? Is it a this or that situation?
Huw_Dawson
Member
So you believe that by talking to IS, you are saying Corbyn will demand unconditional surrender.
So he's presumably going to continue the WoT until he's defeated ISIS and they'll surrender.
By "War on Terror" we mean utilising military measures - and a giant government initiative, like the "War on Drugs" - to actively defeat terrorist groups.
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