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[Hazzuh]

Another really weird thing about the campaign is that the same people who were saying that Corbyn met the IRA to help the peace process are now repeating Corbyn's recent line that he never met the IRA.

EDIT:
Here is another angry voice on the 14th of May

Here is the same dude now:

 

[Huw_Dawson]

The problem is that bringing up the IRA is a largely irrelevant attack.

Mark Pack, LD election guru, put it best what is going on right now. Because the Tories have published a manifesto without any good news in it, the entire debate about their manifesto was about about the bad bits.

It is a weird problem - if the LDs were able to get more media coverage it would turn the debate on its head I think. But when you have tiny amounts of news coverage it is hard to make any real political hay.

 

[Juicy Bob]

Labour doing a pretty great job of tweeting football stuff on Corbyn's account with the FA Cup final on.

 

[Beefy]

Labour doing a pretty great job of tweeting football stuff on Corbyn's account with the FA Cup final on.

Corbyn needs to work on his football skills tho. Have you seen the vids? 😂

 

[travisbickle]

Another really weird thing about the campaign is that the same people who were saying that Corbyn met the IRA to help the peace process are now repeating Corbyn's recent line that he never met the IRA.

EDIT:
Here is another angry voice on the 14th of May


Here is the same dude now:

Well that is the leader of Sinn Fein.

But the problem is how deeply connected Sinn Fein were to the IRA. The Conservative parties secret talks with the IRA were probably through Sinn Fein.

 

[Orbis]

The problem is that bringing up the IRA is a largely irrelevant attack.

It's bizarre and desperate. This shit was done to death when Corbyn first entered the scene. Anyone who would be swayed by such a thing would've been swayed already.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Yup. The Tories are facing up to the looming reality that they have as little clue as to what they want to achieve in government as they did before Cameron took over.

My suspicion is that the Tories are in a death spiral. Good news for my lot - Brexit off the agenda and all three (four) of our vulnerable seats are Con facing.

They have no message, so all they can do is attack Corbyn.

This should be good, in theory, for my lot. The stage has been set for a small surge for the LDs - it's do or die next week.

The best possible result is for Labour voters in Labour seats being so heavily turned off by May that they refuse to vote for her. Labour holds most of their current crop of seats, and the LDs wreak havoc in the LD/Con marginals.

I think everyone here other than Quiche here would rather a hung parliament than a Tory majority - that WOULD be a route to avoiding a hard Brexit. Fingers crossed.

 

[Beefy]

jeremycorbyn

"Pressure? This is just a football match.' José Luis Chilavert #FACupFinal

Damn

 

[Royal_Phalanx]

I pray for a hung parliament. That could kill hard Brexit.

 

[PJV3]

I pray for a hung parliament. That could kill hard Brexit.

That's where I am, which is strange perhaps for a left winger. Mainly I want it so there might actually be some kind of open discussion forced on the politicians that can't be rammed through.

 

[Xando]

I pray for a hung parliament. That could kill hard Brexit.

As someone not from the UK. Can you explain what a hung parliament is? No majorities?

 

[PJV3]

As someone not from the UK. Can you explain what a hung parliament is? No majorities?

Yeah, the government would probably be forced to be more open throughout the process of leaving the EU, it couldn't pull what May has been doing.

 

[Chinner]

Hate to say it guys, but think we're verging into dream territory here.

 

[PJV3]

Hate to say it guys, but think we're verging into dream territory here.

May as well hope while the jury is out.

 

[Pancake Mix]

Part of the reason Labour is doing so well right now (well, in polls) is that they accepted the referendum result.

It's over.

 

[PJV3]

Part of the reason Labour is doing so well right now (well, in polls) is that they accepted the referendum result.

It's over.

I don't think anyone is expecting to overturn the result, that would have to come from the public changing its opinion. People are hoping for more input and keeping options open, not this red, white and blue nonsense.

 

[Doctor_Thomas]

I like that the Lib Dems are anti-Brexit, but after they got in bed with the Tories, I find it incredibly hard to ever trust them again.

 

[Xando]

Yeah, the government would probably be forced to be more open throughout the process of leaving the EU, it couldn't pull what May has been doing.

I see.

So if there's no majority for the tories, is there a chance for some kind of coalition? libdems with labour or grand coalition (like in germany for example) or something?

 

[SuperEpicMan]

I voted remain, but at this stage I feel the ship has sailed to prevent brexit. I feel we would be best suited to negotiating a deal that keeps us in the single market and customs union, and later down the line opening up the possibility of becoming a full member again. With the direction this country is heading in, shifting quickly towards the right, I feel it is more important to look beyond brexit and to try to vote to shape what kind of country we become. Having brexit tunnel vision in this election is just going to hand the election to the tories.

 

[Hazzuh]

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 45% (-1)
LAB: 35% (+2)
LDEM: 7% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-)

(via @OpiniumResearch / 23 - 25 May)

 

[empyrean]

That's what I think it will end up....roughly. Don't think there will be a massive labour swing.

 

[Hazzuh]

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 46% (-2)
LAB: 34% (+4)
LDEM: 8% (-2)
UKIP: 5% (-)
GRN: 2% (-1)

(via @ComRes / 24 - 26 May)

 

[Huw_Dawson]

That Opinium poll is off - if the underlying data shows Corbyn ratings dramatically up over the week prior, then that should be reflected in the poll data. But it isn't.

The LD score is dire, but this means that there is a gap of three between the LD support in the Yougov poll (24-25 May) and the Opinium poll a day prior (23-24).

Also, as much as folks criticise Farron here, I find it seriously doubtful he's as unpopular as Corbyn used to be, as this poll says. I don't recall him punching a baby or anything.

Given the Yougov poll had a crazy result, one bit of wisdom would be that the Yougov poll was out. But I struggle to see a good reason for that, considering it is plainly obvious that the Tory campaign has repulsed many.

There will be at least three more polls tonight - it therefore remains to be seen if Opinium or Yougov are right.

EDIT: Comres showing similar - definitely seems like the Yougov poll was an outlier.

 

[Royal_Phalanx]

In keeping with the general trend really. 5-10 percentage points out. Also on Opinium:

Approval / Disapproval ratings of...

T. May: 45 / 34
J. Corbyn: 31 / 42
T. Farron: 17 / 40
P. Nuttall: 11 / 47

@OpiniumResearch, 23-24 May

 

[Hazzuh]

On who is best to represent Britain on the world stage:

T. May: 49%
J. Corbyn: 21%

On who is most likely to deliver improvements to the NHS:

T. May: 25%
J. Corbyn: 41%

On who is best to lead Britain's negotiations over Brexit:

T. May: 48%
J. Corbyn: 18%

On who is most likely to keep Britain safe from terrorism:

T. May: 42%
J. Corbyn: 16%

On who is best to look after the interests of hard working families:

T. May: 28%
J. Corbyn: 41%

On who is most likely to raise school standards:

T. May: 31%
J. Corbyn: 31%

On who is most likely to reduce net migration to the UK:

T. May: 33%
J. Corbyn: 11%
P. Nuttall: 21%

On who is most likely to protect the interests of older people dependent on the social care system:

T. May: 20%
J. Corbyn: 43%


All via ComRes. Social care debate clearly in peoples mind but on the whole not a good look for Corbyn.

edit:
On who 'have the best policies for people like me and my family':

May and the Tories: 37%
Corbyn and Labour: 42%

On who would make a better Home Secretary:

Amber Rudd: 43%
Diane Abbott: 12%

On who would make a better Prime Minister:

T. May: 51%
J. Corbyn: 30%

 

[Ashes]

That last one could be mighty important.

 

[Real Hero]

old people what is more important brexit OR YOUR LIVES

 

[Dorsal Axe]

Revealed: Conservatives revise down their internal election projections
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/conservatives-revise-internal-election-projections/

I understand projections for the election result have shifted dramatically. The internal ‘ceiling’ (the best case scenario) has gone from a majority of near 200 in week one, to a majority around the 80 mark. The ‘floor’ is now a hung Parliament — which is a worse case scenario and still an unlikely one. In response to the numbers, the Conservatives said they would not comment on ‘polls or projections’.

The mood in CCHQ is one of annoyance verging on anger. A majority of 80 MPs is what a lot of Conservative MPs have regarded as par since the election was first called, so anything below that will be a disappointment. Theresa May’s decision to run a tight ship with her two closest advisers — Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill — at the helm could come back to haunt her. Tories were only happy going along with the high levels of control freakery on the basis that it worked.

 

[Hazzuh]

old people what is more important brexit OR YOUR LIVES

(Opinium)

 

[Doctor_Thomas]

On who is most likely to keep Britain safe from terrorism:

T. May: 42%
J. Corbyn: 16%

May, literally, reduced policing while Home Sec. Who are these people?

 

[CCS]

old people what is more important brexit OR YOUR LIVES

Well on the one hand I don't want to sell my house to pay for my care before suffering an avoidable death because of an overstretched and underfunded NHS, but on the other hand I really hate immigrants.

 

[StayDead]

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 46% (-2)
LAB: 34% (+4)
LDEM: 8% (-2)
UKIP: 5% (-)
GRN: 2% (-1)

(via @ComRes / 24 - 26 May)

It'll only take a little, we can hopefully force a hung if we're lucky.

 

[Spaghetti]

Come on! We can do it!

Depends on your definition of doing it.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Yeah, more weird polling numbers - Comres has Labour on 42% for "best policies for me and my family" - beating the Tories by five. But that suggests there are millions of voters who think "I think Corbyn and Labour have better policies, but I am voting for May."

I don't think that is a sustainable situation, and it suggests what we're already seeing, which is very swingy polling between the two big parties.

Going to be another week before anybody can be sure of the final result.

A range of polls for the same dates that show Corbyn anywhere between 12 and 5 points behind...

The important poll tonight is the Yougov one, I guess. If it shows a 10 point lead and the LDs on 8 or 9% I'd wager we've hit stability in the polling numbers.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Yeah, more weird polling numbers - Comres has Labour on 42% for "best policies for me and my family" - beating the Tories by five. But that suggests there are millions of voters who think "I think Corbyn and Labour have better policies, but I am voting for May."

Not really. Sounds about right to me. It implies that people think Labour have better policies, but don't have the confidence they can deliver them. This is very much an election of leadership without policy versus policy without leadership.

EDIT:

Or put another way, "best polices", Labour wins 42% to 37%. "best Prime Minister", May wins 51% to 30%. If you assume that people split 50/50 along better policy/better leadership as imore mportant to them, that reaches... 44% CON to 34% LAB. Which is about what the result was, with a little error either side.

 

[Dorsal Axe]

The most interesting thing to me about these polls is that the 'incumbent party bounce' that people were expecting after the Manchester attack hasn't materialised at all.

 

[Morat]

The most interesting thing to me about these polls is that the 'incumbent party bounce' that people were expecting after the Manchester attack hasn't materialised at all.

Indeed, although it's only been a few days. We''l see what next week brings.

 

[Randy Lanzarote]

Revealed: Conservatives revise down their internal election projections
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/conservatives-revise-internal-election-projections/

I wouldn't be surprised if we see 'Theresa May's Team' rebranded back to 'Conservative' very soon.

And Conservative MPs will rebrand Theresa May as their ex-leader when she doesn't deliver an election victory that gives them a significant increase on what they already had.


Oh man.... imagine the shame she will feel if Corbyn outlasts her as party leader.

 

[PJV3]

I wouldn't be surprised if we see 'Theresa May's Team' rebranded back to 'Conservative' very soon.

And Conservative MPs will rebrand Theresa May as their ex-leader when she doesn't deliver an election victory that gives them a significant increase on what they already had.


Oh man.... imagine the shame she will feel if Corbyn outlasts her as party leader.

Just having a hung parliament appear within their range of results is entertaining. It's Jeremy Corbyn.

 

[D4Danger]

let's not forget we started with this an almost guaranteed 200+ Tory majority. I don't think Labour will win but anything they can do to that that madness is very much welcome.

 

[Chinner]

I wonder how polling will be for Friday onwards. Interested to see what Corbyns speech and tory media attack ship will have any impact

 

[D4Danger]

I wonder how polling will be for Friday onwards. Interested to see what Corbyns speech and tory media attack ship will have any impact

They tried to turn Corbyn's speech against him but none of the papers were having it and it wasn't hard to find quotes from Tories who criticized him saying the same thing so that just kind of fizzled out.

There's no talk of it today so I'm guessing it will have no impact one way or the other. Same with the IRA and Trident stuff, none of that was new.

 

[Thornton Reed]

I wonder how polling will be for Friday onwards. Interested to see what Corbyns speech and tory media attack ship will have any impact

New poll in the independent showing con with a 12 point lead

 

[Chinner]

New poll in the independent showing con with a 12 point lead

Is that + or - from the previous poll?

 

[Audioboxer]

Lib Dems getting right to the point in Scotland

 

[Chinner]

Tim Falcon really looks like a balding Dougal from Father Ted.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Or put another way, "best polices", Labour wins 42% to 37%. "best Prime Minister", May wins 51% to 30%. If you assume that people split 50/50 along better policy/better leadership as imore mportant to them, that reaches... 44% CON to 34% LAB. Which is about what the result was, with a little error either side.

ComRes asked the question of leadership vs policy and found that it was actually not 50/50, but 20/60 - so about three times more people think policy is more important, unless my maths has failed me.

I think what seems to have happened is that Corbyn is now rated more highly than he did in the past, but the rest of his team has not enjoyed the same exposure.

But at the end of the day I don't think that alone explains the gulf.

My ultimate suspicion is that we are seeing an issue with methodology. According to Yougov, quite a bit of the bounce they recorded for Labour after their manifesto onwards was from non-voters and young voters. So either Yougov this week was right, and Corbyn has made a lot of people who are less inclined to vote activate as Labour supporters, or Yougov's methodology was wrong. Bear in mind that Yougov does not weight its polls as heavily as others - it does not redistribute don't knows according to squeeze questions or past voting record, which I think is intelligent considering how bonkers this election is.

@Audioboxer, that is called a squeeze message and has been a staple of hundreds of Lib Dem campaigns in the past. As a centrist party we are hungry for tactical votes. That is why vote share is very bad at figuring out how many MPs the LDs will have.

 

[*Splinter]

People think they think policy is more important

 

[Huw_Dawson]

People think they think policy is more important

True enough, maybe the policy view is affected by their opinion of the leader. But 20/60 is a pretty big gulf to fill with people having their views coloured.

This is why it is important for airtime in the media. When you have comments on Twitter such as "all I know about their policy is that they want to stop Brexit" you can start to unpick that. The more time spent on policy, the more time spent convincing voters.

Thinking about it, to me this all suggests that Corbyn may have made an error of judgement in giving a foreign policy speech on Friday, regardless of the terror attack. He could have spent that entire speech hammering on how bad Tory policy is. By talking about foreign policy he has given the Tories breathing room.

---

Oh, I know I got into a massive argument yesterday on here regarding Farron's comments on Corbyn. I quoted his follow-up quote later on, but the BBC have a video up extrapolating on his original comment -

Here

Also as a bonus, he's standing in some lovely Lake District countryside.

His comment was:

"I think there's no doubt whatsoever that radical extremists, terrorists, with their ideology, feed off, and use as a recruiting sergeant, foreign policy mistakes, and there has been no bigger foreign policy mistake in my lifetime than the Iraq War."

"However, there is a subtle and very important difference when you then start to say that somehow that terrorism is caused by it."

"When all said and done, that extreme ideology predates 9/11, predates the war in Iraq and the War on Terror. It instead is something which is utterly independent of it. And it's wrong to suggest - and I subtly suggest this - that terrorism is somehow caused by our foreign policy or anybody else's - even when I am critical of that foreign policy."

I know it was a bit of a heated debate yesterday, mostly caused by me relentlessly replying to comments, but I think the above is a good summation of the Lib Dem view on this.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

New post for new news:

Tory butts return to clenched position.