QuicheFontaine
Member
The tightening of the polls seems to be coming almost entirely from Labour rising, not Conservatives falling. Cons have been on mid-forties for pretty much the whole campaign.
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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding
- Thread starter Jezbollah
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JonathanEx
Member
I like how we instantly move on to discussing encryption when there's no proof that by itself was why we missed this.
Nothing to do with resources to keep closer eyes on the watchlist, nope
Nothing to do with resources to keep closer eyes on the watchlist, nope
Yeah. if corbyn is helping labour poll around the mid 30's in their worst election in decades i wonder how well a more moderate and less tainted version of corbyn will do against against the tories possibly in 2022.
She's saying he'll sign our security away when the conservatives are literally signing down on policies to reduce police and health care numbers.
The tories are completely barmy.
TomWaitsForNoMan
Banned
There's an assumption here that his performance is despite the fact that hes not a moderate rather than because of it. A more moderate leader probably wouldn't have included a lot of the more popular policies in the manifesto
It was posited a few pages ago that May was the Bizarro Hillary Clinton. I'd argue that she's actually the Bizarro Trump. Trump lied wholesale to large parts of the electorate, arguing that he'd help coal town communities, not cut social security, improve Obamacare, as well as continuously projecting his own fears, faults and failures onto Hillary.
I'd argue that May is doing what Trump did, but with the added twist of lying even more obviously and badly.
we'll need to wait to see how this election shakes out but i think a lot of the received wisdom about corbyn is basically wrong. he's been utterly destroyed by the papers, and people who would like to think they don't pay attention to that kind of thing have adopted their assessment by osmosis. i think corbyn being 'too left' has nothing to do with why he is failing or succeeding, it is entirely down to a unified media front which has discredited him from the beginning. now that people are actually getting a chance to look at the politician himself, all of his stances and policies and his demeanour (not that demeanour should matter), he is gaining ground in many areas. if this election cycle was longer, he would win. it isn't long enough.
Huw_Dawson
Member
The worry is that Labour voters decide not to lend their vote to LD campaigns.
As I have said prior, the only way JC ever gets close to power is if the Tories lose seats to the LDs.
Labour campaigning in marginals where they have no hope is deliberate vote splitting.
@PJV3, you're in Bath, right? Hopefully we take that seat.
As I have said prior, the only way JC ever gets close to power is if the Tories lose seats to the LDs.
Labour campaigning in marginals where they have no hope is deliberate vote splitting.
@PJV3, you're in Bath, right? Hopefully we take that seat.
TomWaitsForNoMan
Banned
Impossible to prove a counterfactual obviously, but if he's done this well over the last month he'd probably be doing a lot better if the slugs on his own backbenches hadn't had their knives out for him from the moment he was elected. Sadly, one of his weaknesses is that he didn't deal with them as firmly as he could have and now he's paying the price
yeah, that too. he's been fighting mercenaries in his own party just as much.
In fairness, she has since clarified she would not:
https://twitter.com/CarolineLucas/status/868747375308939268
Also, my favourite:
https://twitter.com/CarolineLucas/status/868753057852555264
Hot Coldman
Banned
What's the guess on how the Labour Party goes on if Corbyn puts a decent dent into the majority? Will that be acknowledged as worthwhile? I'm guessing we'll just go back to square one and the cycle will repeat, but hey, at least there's 4/5 years!
Huw_Dawson
Member
Yougov poll has LDs on 16% in the South and 13% in London. That 9% comes from weakened results in the north of England, the Midlands/Wales and Scotland.
About 7% of voters still have no idea who they will vote for. Of waverers that expressed a leaning, 36% are leaning Con, 32% are leaning Labour, and 16% are leaning Lib Dem.
It is still very much all to play for this campaign, especially for the Lib Dems, who will want to shore up votes.
Pour a drink for UKIP. Only 60% of their voters are sure they'll actually vote UKIP.
About 7% of voters still have no idea who they will vote for. Of waverers that expressed a leaning, 36% are leaning Con, 32% are leaning Labour, and 16% are leaning Lib Dem.
It is still very much all to play for this campaign, especially for the Lib Dems, who will want to shore up votes.
Pour a drink for UKIP. Only 60% of their voters are sure they'll actually vote UKIP.
Amber Rudd was talking bollocks on the Marr show. The encryption stuff was a joke, shows how clueless they are but old people don't care or know but at least Marr explained it quite well that you can't make it vanish. She also wouldn't get into how many people warned about the bomber being extreme which doesn't fit her agenda, pretty pathetic.
PJV3
Member
Kingston, I'm not keen at all on Ed Davey and enjoyed him being defeated, but i'm just going to hold my nose and vote for him this time, it was a little sad talking to the labour candidate because I think he's OK.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Oh, and Labour are on 49% in the North of England. Up 8% from this time last GE, and pretty much the same as the Tory surge. No noticeable affect on the LD vote.
@PJV3 - ah, someone else is from Bath then. Thanks for holding your nose.
Anecdotally, do you think the Lib Dems are more likely to win Kingston now? How has the campaign on the ground looked to you?
Labour voters putting up with a Lib Dem means one seat less the Tories have to work with. Good for everyone.
@PJV3 - ah, someone else is from Bath then. Thanks for holding your nose.
Anecdotally, do you think the Lib Dems are more likely to win Kingston now? How has the campaign on the ground looked to you?
Labour voters putting up with a Lib Dem means one seat less the Tories have to work with. Good for everyone.
SlipperyFishes
Banned
She went on the attack today. Used the bomb as one of her reasons why you should vote for her to keep us safe even though the entire operation has been a Tory clusterfuck
https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/868765452423626753
https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/868765452423626753
Theresa May said:
PJV3
Member
I think they have it, the libdem posters are back in every street again like they used to be before the Cleggapocalypse.
I'm not counting the chickens yet as Shy Tories are hard to work out, but the dementia tax and property around here is going to be expensive for them.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Awesome! 
Gonna be a nice night getting Vince and co back in. Even if we don't see a big surge in the vote this year, a bigger squadron of MPs will massively help spread the word... Until the government collapses in 2019 and we're back at the coal face again.
Gonna be a nice night getting Vince and co back in. Even if we don't see a big surge in the vote this year, a bigger squadron of MPs will massively help spread the word... Until the government collapses in 2019 and we're back at the coal face again.
Saw Fallon on Peston getting his obviously pre ordained "Corbyn is soft on terror" slogan in.
Pathetic stuff from the Tories. The party who cut back police resources so much that even with 5 warnings from the community the bomber got through the cracks. They're fucking reprehensible. Nice to see Peston was quite defiant and defensive of the bullshit Fallon was trying to throw at Corbyn. Don't usually watch his show so wasn't sure what to expect.
Pathetic stuff from the Tories. The party who cut back police resources so much that even with 5 warnings from the community the bomber got through the cracks. They're fucking reprehensible. Nice to see Peston was quite defiant and defensive of the bullshit Fallon was trying to throw at Corbyn. Don't usually watch his show so wasn't sure what to expect.
LoveCake
Member
This is a interesting read from the Open Rights Group "Find out how the election will impact your digital rights, and what you can do about it." they also have the relevant parts of Party Manifestos related to digital rights:
1 Labour
1.1 Broadband
1.2 Digital Ambassador
1.3 Brexit
1.4 Data protection & privacy
1.5 NHS whistleblowers
1.6 Sex and relationship education
1.7 Security and counter-terrorism
1.8 Copyright
1.9 European Convention on Human Rights
1.10 Judicial Review
1.11 Phone hacking
1.12 Freedom of Information
1.13 Defence
2 Liberal Democrats
2.1 NHS whistleblowers
2.2 Sexual and relationship education
2.3 Broadband
2.4 Digital economy
2.5 Copyright
2.6 European Convention on Human Rights
2.7 Digital rights
2.8 Phone hacking
2.9 Freedom of Information
2.10 Media plurality
2.11 Crime
2.12 Police body-worn cameras
2.13 Judicial review
2.14 Terrorism and extremism
2.15 Investigatory powers
2.16 Encryption
2.17 Surveillance victims
2.18 Cybersecurity
2.19 Internet
3 Conservatives
3.1 European Convention on Human Rights
3.2 Voting
3.3 Online consumers
3.4 Digital charter
3.5 Intellectual property
3.6 Online business
3.7 Broadband
3.8 Online safety
3.9 Responsibility for online content
3.10 Encryption
3.11 Relationship and sex education
3.12 Data protection
3.13 Cyber security
3.14 Phone hacking
3.15 Costs of libel and privacy cases
3.16 Digital government
3.17 Identity verification
3.18 Data sharing
3.19 Internet and digital economy regulation
3.20 International cooperation on Internet regulation
4 Green Party of England and Wales
4.1 Terrorism and extremism
4.2 European Convention on Human Rights
4.3 Data protection
Well worth reading though this imo, as we now spend a lot of time online, maybe half of our life even, digital rights are more-important than ever.
1 Labour
1.1 Broadband
1.2 Digital Ambassador
1.3 Brexit
1.4 Data protection & privacy
1.5 NHS whistleblowers
1.6 Sex and relationship education
1.7 Security and counter-terrorism
1.8 Copyright
1.9 European Convention on Human Rights
1.10 Judicial Review
1.11 Phone hacking
1.12 Freedom of Information
1.13 Defence
2 Liberal Democrats
2.1 NHS whistleblowers
2.2 Sexual and relationship education
2.3 Broadband
2.4 Digital economy
2.5 Copyright
2.6 European Convention on Human Rights
2.7 Digital rights
2.8 Phone hacking
2.9 Freedom of Information
2.10 Media plurality
2.11 Crime
2.12 Police body-worn cameras
2.13 Judicial review
2.14 Terrorism and extremism
2.15 Investigatory powers
2.16 Encryption
2.17 Surveillance victims
2.18 Cybersecurity
2.19 Internet
3 Conservatives
3.1 European Convention on Human Rights
3.2 Voting
3.3 Online consumers
3.4 Digital charter
3.5 Intellectual property
3.6 Online business
3.7 Broadband
3.8 Online safety
3.9 Responsibility for online content
3.10 Encryption
3.11 Relationship and sex education
3.12 Data protection
3.13 Cyber security
3.14 Phone hacking
3.15 Costs of libel and privacy cases
3.16 Digital government
3.17 Identity verification
3.18 Data sharing
3.19 Internet and digital economy regulation
3.20 International cooperation on Internet regulation
4 Green Party of England and Wales
4.1 Terrorism and extremism
4.2 European Convention on Human Rights
4.3 Data protection
Well worth reading though this imo, as we now spend a lot of time online, maybe half of our life even, digital rights are more-important than ever.
FlammableD
Banned
I think if he does go, it'd be smart to not try and hide him off in the backbenches
Huw_Dawson
Member
Someone on Twitter saying that Goldsmith would be a "prominent and influential backbencher against Heathrow expansion."
I asked him if Goldsmith would be a prominent and influential backbencher for a hard Brexit too.
Any news on who Labour is sending up to the BBC debate?
I asked him if Goldsmith would be a prominent and influential backbencher for a hard Brexit too.
Any news on who Labour is sending up to the BBC debate?
Heathrow expansion is a done and settled deal. It's in the Tory manifesto, he resigned over it and lost the re-election campaign. It's happening.
I also think the idea of Goldsmith being prominent at anything is laughable. His name is *mud* now after that mayoral campaign.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Yet it is still not an done deal that he loses - it does all depend on how all the remain-voting Tories go. Crab and I talked about that a few weeks ago - he has a mate with data that claims that Goldsmith has a big advantage, as a lot of Tory voters did not come out for Goldsmith in the by-election but would come out for a blue rosette.
The question is if the last few weeks, especially the excellent campaign being run in SW London and the shoddy Tory manifesto, change those voters minds.
Oh, I thoroughly expect him to be back in Parliament. It's sad and depressing but there you go. I'm saying that in terms of backbench aggro for May over Heathrow, it's done. It's in the manifesto. The party will win a majority on it. You can't do a backbench rebellion on something like that - particularly not one led by someone who resigned their seat and then lost first time around.p (And whose name and reputation in the party was severely damaged through the mayoral campaign).
The parties put him up because he has the best chance of taking the seat back - but he's unpopular and disliked across the board now. He failed twice, and severely damaged the Tory brand in London doing so. That doesn't make you a popular person.
BriareosGAF
Member
Secret Scientologists?
Huw_Dawson
Member
Got off the tube at Bermondsey and the first poster I see is a LD one, right opposite the tube exit. Feels good man.
A couple of my mates in Scottish Labour, reckon they'll do far better than they expected. Might pick up 2 or 3 seats with the hope of getting as much as 6. Noticeably Ruth Davidson has spent the last couple of days attacking Labour not the SNP.
There's a definite sense that the Tory push up here has fallen back.
There's a definite sense that the Tory push up here has fallen back.
Ravensmash
Member
Can anyone provide me with a decent unbiased (lol) look at Corbyn's links to the IRA situation?
One side tells me he was some form of visionary, the other side tells me he was a sympathiser working for republican means.
There was a quote from a former IRA guy in that Neil interview which got me thinking - stating that he played no part in peace etc.
One side tells me he was some form of visionary, the other side tells me he was a sympathiser working for republican means.
There was a quote from a former IRA guy in that Neil interview which got me thinking - stating that he played no part in peace etc.
Doctor_Thomas
Member
I don't think an unbiased source even exists and, really, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle.
PJV3
Member
You can't really view it as being about the IRA, it's more about the left and the end of Empire and its legacy.
Labour mobilizing its electorate and abstentionnists then ? Maybe young people like Mélenchon did in France earlier this year ?
18-24yo
Torries 12%
Labour 69%
65+yo
Torries 66%
Labour 16%
(Yougov)
Finally got to see Corbyn's full post-Manchester attack speech.
Even more shocked the Conservatives are going whole hog on the "soft on terror" smear now. They better hope those on the fence about that issue don't watch the speech itself. It's too nuanced a view to fit in a single soundbite, but a lot of it definitely rings true.
Coupled with that footage of May saying cuts to policing increasing the terror risk is "scare-mongering", plus the one of the Mancunian police officer basically predicting the attack, well...
Not feeling particularly strong, stable, or safe with May around.
Even more shocked the Conservatives are going whole hog on the "soft on terror" smear now. They better hope those on the fence about that issue don't watch the speech itself. It's too nuanced a view to fit in a single soundbite, but a lot of it definitely rings true.
Coupled with that footage of May saying cuts to policing increasing the terror risk is "scare-mongering", plus the one of the Mancunian police officer basically predicting the attack, well...
Not feeling particularly strong, stable, or safe with May around.
David Cameron said the same thing in 2006 as well and the electorate mostly agrees with Corbyn. The Tories attacking him on this is both disingenuous and baffling.
Repeat a lie often enough it becomes a truth. Really dislike the cold calculus of electoral politics.
they don't have a long enough time to do this
Election 2017: What if I can't afford to pay the rent?
According to the housing charity Shelter, there are now half a million people in the UK in the same situation as Nadine: people who have jobs, but who still have to borrow money for the rent.
That amounts to one in three renters who are on low incomes, Shelter says.
Nadine earns around £1,500 a month, but rent and council tax alone take up £1,057.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39974177
The article also includes the main Party pledges. Tory manifesto is pretty weak as expected.
According to the housing charity Shelter, there are now half a million people in the UK in the same situation as Nadine: people who have jobs, but who still have to borrow money for the rent.
That amounts to one in three renters who are on low incomes, Shelter says.
Nadine earns around £1,500 a month, but rent and council tax alone take up £1,057.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39974177
The article also includes the main Party pledges. Tory manifesto is pretty weak as expected.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Not really election related, but there's a really great atmosphere in Manchester today. Lots of police for the 10K, but lots of people taking photos with the police and generally being very friendly. Real positive vibe.
Guerrillas in the Mist
Member
It's one of the classic problems of the left: potential opponents on the same ideological spectrum can't be put aside for the sake of an election. Some Labour supporters amongst my FB friends have seemingly dedicated as much time painting Farron as a homophobic religious extremist and Sturgeon as a malicious opportunist, as they criticising the Tories.
Guerrillas in the Mist
Member
Nightmarish. The disparity in rent and house prices across the country is insane - my modern 2 bedroom flat here (Perth, Scotland) is under £700 a month, and that's definitely on the higher end for where I live. I know folks in flats paying £500-550 for something decent.
Further to the above, the suspension of Right to Buy by Labour isn't a popular policy in my neck of the woods. Which goes to show how many people don't move out of council properties even though evidently since they think they might be able to buy their house sometime soon, they could very well live on non-social housing properties.
Granted lots of people have a hard time working out if they're working class or if they're rich. Or Private properties are increasingly​ unaffordable for the many. Still it goes to show when it's our home, lots of us vote for our needs, rather than funding for other important things such as police and the NHS.
Granted lots of people have a hard time working out if they're working class or if they're rich. Or Private properties are increasingly​ unaffordable for the many. Still it goes to show when it's our home, lots of us vote for our needs, rather than funding for other important things such as police and the NHS.
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