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[PJV3]

The "referendum on the final deal" policy is nuts in my view. How could a government negotiate with that hanging over them? The EU could purposely offer a crap deal, safe in the knowledge that the crapper the deal, the more chance of the electorate rejecting the offer and the UK staying in the EU by default.

The policy looks good on paper, but then so does fish and chips.

It doesn't really work like that though, the deal will be whatever is acceptable back In the political situation in the other countries. It's why the size of our majority isn't a factor or why they couldn't get a sensible deal about Greek debt.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

We'd be replaying the article 50 argument in every General Election for the next 30 years, the EU could not be confident of our continuing support on anything at all. It would poison our politics for a long time.

I've got bad news.

Europe is going to be the defining issue in British politics for the next generation. Us being in Europe is vastly better for Britain than us being outside of it - and that isn't going to go away because folks gave up.

 

[Roberto Larcos]

I think it was wrong to vote for Brexit. A silly, dreadful, ill-informed decision that will cost us a lot. But I also think that having done that, we must now go through with it.

That's mostly because doing otherwise would make our relationship with the EU even worse than it is now. We'd be replaying the article 50 argument in every General Election for the next 30 years, the EU could not be confident of our continuing support on anything at all. It would poison our politics for a long time.

Best we get it over with.

I guess it is people like me that makes Moze say that stat is no longer relevant.

But the question is, if there was a second referendum tomorrow, would you as a consequence vote to leave? Or would you be persuaded to vote for remain?

I've got bad news.

Europe is going to be the defining issue in British politics for the next generation.

Hopefully, but I doubt it. The British are the most passive people in the world.

 

[Moze]

Our system doesn't help the Lib Dems at all, they're not a fantastic metric. It'd be like saying there was no appetite for a referendum in 2015, because UKIP only won a single seat. If Labour had a pro-EU leader - Smith or Umunna - then I genuinely think it would be different.

UKIP got an insane amount of votes last election. If the Lib Dems fail to pick up marginal seats in remain areas, that would say alot.

I think you are living in a fantasy world if you think it is possible to reverse this decision with a pro EU leader.

Semantics, as in you said the wrong thing? Yes.

You made a statement that wasn't supported by the data. If your post didn't say 'the vast majority of people want out of the EU now', but said 'the vast majority of people believe the Brexit process should go ahead', then I'd have had nothing to question.

Spoiler

Except that I think of a 'vast' majority as being around 90/10, so I'd have said a 'significant' majority, but that's completely subjective.

Does any of this really make much difference to this discussion? Want out or respect the decision, the majority do not want a referendum. And it is likely not going to change.

 

[Theonik]

The UK doesn't stay in by default if such a deal is rejected this whole process is all kinds of messed up.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

I've got bad news.

Europe is going to be the defining issue in British politics for the next generation. Us being in Europe is vastly better for Britain than us being outside of it - and that isn't going to go away because folks gave up.

We aren't leaving "Europe". This is a pet peeve of mine.

 

[Roberto Larcos]

UKIP got an insane amount of votes last election. If the Lib Dems fail to pick up marginal seats in remain areas, that would say alot.

I think you are living in a fantasy world if you think it is possible to reverse this decision with a pro EU leader.

Public opinion is shaped by political leaders. Cameron and Farage particularly pushed for a referendum, over a course of decades. It wasn't an organic thing, and significant appetite for a referendum wouldn't have come about otherwise. All I'm saying is that it goes both ways, and a pro-EU leader for the second-biggest party might persuade enough people that yes, we should have either a second referendum or a referendum on the deal. I genuinely don't think this is a controversial stance to take.

Does any of this really make much difference to this discussion? Want out or respect the decision, the majority do not want a referendum. And it is likely not going to change.

The majority didn't want a referendum 20 years ago. Things change.

 

[Royal_Phalanx]

I think it was wrong to vote for Brexit. A silly, dreadful, ill-informed decision that will cost us a lot. But I also think that having done that, we must now go through with it.

That's mostly because doing otherwise would make our relationship with the EU even worse than it is now. We'd be replaying the article 50 argument in every General Election for the next 30 years, the EU could not be confident of our continuing support on anything at all. It would poison our politics for a long time.

Best we get it over with.

I guess it is people like me that makes Moze say that stat is no longer relevant.

Then join the EEA/EFTA and limit the damage. As I see it there's no reason for a Remainer to just accept May's Hard Brexit. And I hate to say it, but politics is poisoned already.

We aren't leaving "Europe". This is a pet peeve of mine.

Well, many of these Leave figures believe Britain is a special snowflake and isn't really a European country. Also what else can you call a severing of long standing economic ties with our closest neighbours and inhabitants of our continent?

 

[Pandy]

I think it was wrong to vote for Brexit. A silly, dreadful, ill-informed decision that will cost us a lot. But I also think that having done that, we must now go through with it.

That's mostly because doing otherwise would make our relationship with the EU even worse than it is now. We'd be replaying the article 50 argument in every General Election for the next 30 years, the EU could not be confident of our continuing support on anything at all. It would poison our politics for a long time.

Best we get it over with.

I guess it is people like me that makes Moze say that stat is no longer relevant.

But you don't 'want' Brexit.

If I could wave my magic wand and make Brexit go away as if it never happened and no one would think of it again, and everyone got ice-cream (or appropriate snack based on their allergies... wait.. it's a magic wand, no-one has allergies anymore), then you'd take that, right?

I completely understand the sentiment, but it's wrong to phrase it as if lots of people are being won over to Brexit being a great idea that they really like the sound of.
Instead, many people are coming to terms with the fact that they've got their leg caught and mangled in a bear trap, and the sooner the leg comes off the better it'll be for them.

 

[phisheep]

But the question is, if there was a second referendum tomorrow, would you as a consequence vote to leave? Or would you be persuaded to vote for remain?

Actually there are two questions.

If there were a second referendum tomorrow I would do as I did last time - I would vote to Remain in the EU and I would very actively try to persuade others to vote the same way.

The other question is whether I think there should be a second referendum tomorrow. No I don't.

But you don't 'want' Brexit.

If I could wave my magic wand and make Brexit go away as if it never happened and no one would think of it again, and everyone got ice-cream (or appropriate snack based on their allergies... wait.. it's a magic wand, no-one has allergies anymore), then you'd take that, right?

I completely understand the sentiment, but it's wrong to phrase it as if lots of people are being won over to Brexit being a great idea that they really like the sound of.
Instead, many people are coming to terms with the fact that they've got their leg caught and mangled in a bear trap, and the sooner the leg comes off the better it'll be for them.

Yeah, that about sums it up.

 

[TheRealTalker]

the only good candidates are the ones that want to leave the UK and rejoin with the EU

goodness

Corbyn and May... yeeesh

 

[phisheep]

Then join the EEA/EFTA and limit the damage. As I see it there's no reason for a Remainer to just accept May's Hard Brexit. And I hate to say it, but politics is poisoned already.

I'm not convinced that "May's hard Brexit" is a thing. It's been pointed out many times that the UK is on the back foot in these negotiations. It'll be the EU, not May, that mostly determines the terms of exit.

 

[Royal_Phalanx]

I'm not convinced that "May's hard Brexit" is a thing. It's been pointed out many times that the UK is on the back foot in these negotiations. It'll be the EU, not May, that mostly determines the terms of exit.

Why is she promising to leave the single market then (like it's somehow a good thing) then? To look tough? The EU is open to single market membership if May asked for it and agreed to their terms. Hell, they're even open to a sincere wish to cancel Article 50 and stay in.

 

[PJV3]

I'm not convinced that "May's hard Brexit" is a thing. It's been pointed out many times that the UK is on the back foot in these negotiations. It'll be the EU, not May, that mostly determines the terms of exit.

I think there will be a reasonable transition deal as it suits both sides to avoid chaos, the permanent deal has to be worse for us or May is going to fudge something.

Hopefully you're right about May's hard brexit being something else.

 

[Pandy]

Does any of this really make much difference to this discussion? Want out or respect the decision, the majority do not want a referendum. And it is likely not going to change.

It's the difference between a fact and propaganda.

 

[theaface]

I'm not convinced that "May's hard Brexit" is a thing. It's been pointed out many times that the UK is on the back foot in these negotiations. It'll be the EU, not May, that mostly determines the terms of exit.

You're being very charitable. May's Hard Brexit is absolutely a thing. Remember the weeks of silence other than 'Brexit means Brexit' and 'Red, White and Blue Brexit' *shudder*? That was the time she was calculating her options and decided that leaving the single market was the lesser of two evils for her personally, faced with the potential backlash from the right wing press and her loony eurosceptic backbenchers had she gone with the alternative.

The question on the referendum was clear and simple (in the worst way) - there was no mandate for anything other than not belonging to the EU. Everything that has followed since, starting from May's speech where she effectively decreed a full break AKA hard Brexit is entirely on her.

 

[Juicy Bob]

I give up.

 

[Moze]

Public opinion is shaped by political leaders. Cameron and Farage particularly pushed for a referendum, over a course of decades. It wasn't an organic thing, and significant appetite for a referendum wouldn't have come about otherwise. All I'm saying is that it goes both ways, and a pro-EU leader for the second-biggest party might persuade enough people that yes, we should have either a second referendum or a referendum on the deal. I genuinely don't think this is a controversial stance to take.



The majority didn't want a referendum 20 years ago. Things change.

I don't believe it is possible for a party to get into government right now by opposing Brexit. In the future? Sure. I don't know what is going to happen 5-10+ years down the line. But right now, it is not possible to get in by opposing Brexit. It's suicide.

 

[Chinner]

I've got bad news.

Europe is going to be the defining issue in British politics for the next generation. Us being in Europe is vastly better for Britain than us being outside of it - and that isn't going to go away because folks gave up.

can't wait for the UK to declare war on the EU in 40 years time.

Lets make the Common Wealth Great again lads.

 

[HaloRose]

I'm predicating liberals demorcat will only get about 3 to 6 seats but i think that's good enough atm

 

[D4Danger]

I wonder where we'll be next time after the deal is done and had a few years to work. If the country is doing okay it's going to be even more difficult to campaign against the Tories.

 

[PJV3]

I wonder where we'll be next time after the deal is done and had a few years to work. If the country is doing okay it's going to be even more difficult to campaign against the Tories.

2 years negotiation and then perhaps 3 of a transitional arrangement, the next one is badly timed for getting them out anyway.

They would really need to mess it up to lose at that point(brexit related)

 

[jem0208]

I'm predicating liberals demorcat will only get about 3 to 6 seats but i think that's good enough atm

3 to 6 extra or total?

 

[Chinner]

I wonder where we'll be next time after the deal is done and had a few years to work. If the country is doing okay it's going to be even more difficult to campaign against the Tories.

if theres a transitional deal then that will help the tories out. i can imagine the tories being in for another 3 terms at least. we're a very tory nation and without scotland we're kinda fucked.

 

[D4Danger]

That's an interesting image choice

 

[PJV3]

if theres a transitional deal then that will help the tories out. i can imagine the tories being in for another 3 terms at least. we're a very tory nation and without scotland we're kinda fucked.

We might have finally got over tuition fees and Iraq by then, the fight back starts in 2037.

 

[War Peaceman]

I'm not convinced that "May's hard Brexit" is a thing. It's been pointed out many times that the UK is on the back foot in these negotiations. It'll be the EU, not May, that mostly determines the terms of exit.

Whilst the EU holds the cards in negotiations, May is in charge and is ultimately responsible for whatever happens. If she can't get a good deal that is on her and her ministers.

 

[Spaghetti]

So, uh, tangentially - how are the regional Mayoral elections playing out? Got my campaign literature in the post for the West Midlands, and it's a real fuckin' trip.

Each candidate has got a double page spread for advertising, and I had a good time dissecting them. Here are my findings:

Conservatives - Lots of background on the candidate, a poke at Labour, policy nearly non-existent and mostly empty platitudes. The candidate seems like a fucking pre-programmed robot in video interviews.

The UKIPs - Looks like it was designed by a colourblind horse, a fair bit of policy, but under closer inspection all of it is just riddled with dog whistle nonsense. E.G: "Ensure housing goes to local people". Yes, italics and all. Supports nationalising the M6 toll road.

Liberal Democrats - Wooly, weird. Probably supports nationalising the M6 toll road, but not in the literature provided. Spread looks like a poster you'd see in a Primary School.

Communist (yes, really) - Don't actually believe in the Mayor position but standing anyway, will donate whole salary to charity, surprisingly big on policy even if they are a bit pie-in-the-sky, supports nationalising the M6 toll road.

Greens - Nicely designed, will donate most of the salary to charity and only take the average salary for the region at £28,000, light on policy but worth researching into a bit more because the candidate comes across quite well in video interviews. Probably supports nationalising the M6 toll road, but not in the literature provided.

Labour - Candidate is a fairly notorious wanker, but the campaign literature had a few fleshed out policy ideas that seemed realistic to some degree, plus a poke at the Conservatives. Supports nationalising the M6 toll road.

Not particularly encouraging, but I think I'll have my first vote going to the Greens and my second to Labour in the hope that the candidate is just a figurehead and the actual work is being done by someone else.

Weirdly enough, my dad is thinking first vote Tories, second to the Greens. He also told me he'd like to see the M6 toll road nationalised. We then had a discussion about cognitive dissonance.

 

[Roberto Larcos]

So, uh, tangentially - how are the regional Mayoral elections playing out? Got my campaign literature in the post for the West Midlands, and it's a real fuckin' trip.

Each candidate has got a double page spread for advertising, and I had a good time dissecting them. Here are my findings:

Conservatives - Lots of background on the candidate, a poke at Labour, policy nearly non-existent and mostly empty platitudes. The candidate seems like a fucking pre-programmed robot in video interviews.

The UKIPs - Looks like it was designed by a colourblind horse, a fair bit of policy, but under closer inspection all of it is just riddled with dog whistle nonsense. E.G: "Ensure housing goes to local people". Yes, italics and all. Supports nationalising the M6 toll road.

Liberal Democrats - Wooly, weird. Probably supports nationalising the M6 toll road, but not in the literature provided. Spread looks like a poster you'd see in a Primary School.

Communist (yes, really) - Don't actually believe in the Mayor position but standing anyway, will donate whole salary to charity, surprisingly big on policy even if they are a bit pie-in-the-sky, supports nationalising the M6 toll road.

Greens - Nicely designed, will donate most of the salary to charity and only take the average salary for the region at £28,000, light on policy but worth researching into a bit more because the candidate comes across quite well in video interviews. Probably supports nationalising the M6 toll road, but not in the literature provided.

Labour - Candidate is a fairly notorious wanker, but the campaign literature had a few fleshed out policy ideas that seemed realistic to some degree, plus a poke at the Conservatives. Supports nationalising the M6 toll road.

Not particularly encouraging, but I think I'll have my first vote going to the Greens and my second to Labour in the hope that the candidate is just a figurehead and the actual work is being done by someone else.

Weirdly enough, my dad is thinking first vote Tories, second to the Greens. He also told me he'd like to see the M6 toll road nationalised. We then had a discussion about cognitive dissonance.

I've had no literature, but I know there's been at least one hustings on BBC local radio. I like the Lib Dem candidate's plan to subsidise transport for young people - a similar scheme operates in Madrid - hugely popular, very helpful in allowing young people to get to work more easily without clogging the roads with cars. Coventry is a nightmare for traffic during peak hours - anything to ease that burden is welcome. I'm looking at Lib Dem 1, Green 2.

I think the Conservative candidate will win. Labour are unpopular locally of late, and the area is quite pro-Brexit. I know the Lib Dems are operating on a shoestring budget here, I'd imagine the same is true for anyone outside the big two.

 

[HaloRose]

3 to 6 extra or total?

Extra. It's really hard to get seats in first past the post. So makes them about 12 or 15 seats can go up from there.

 

[Spaghetti]

I've had no literature, but I know there's been at least one hustings on BBC local radio. I like the Lib Dem candidate's plan to subsidise transport for young people - a similar scheme operates in Madrid - hugely popular, very helpful in allowing young people to get to work more easily without clogging the roads with cars. Coventry is a nightmare for traffic during peak hours - anything to ease that burden is welcome. I'm looking at Lib Dem 1, Green 2.

I think the Conservative candidate will win. Labour are unpopular locally of late, and the area is quite pro-Brexit. I know the Lib Dems are operating on a shoestring budget here, I'd imagine the same is true for anyone outside the big two.

Christ. I can't imagine what'll happen if the Tory fella gets in.

Although that's probably because he says a whole lot of nothing. Can't be criticised if you don't give them anything to criticise.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

The fact that I'm reading an opinion piece by Tony Blair and not wanting to set my own hair on fire is dark times.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...r-fight-tories-june-election-brexit-labour-eu

The bastard's right. And he'll be right on June 9th, which is when Corbyn proclaims that the real fight starts.

 

[Pyroclastic]

These metro mayors completely passed me until recently and I try and stay informed about that kind of thing.


Is there a good case for them or can I file them with police commissioners for 'daft elected positions'

 

[Deleted member 231381]

These metro mayors completely passed me until recently and I try and stay informed about that kind of thing.


Is there a good case for them or can I file them with police commissioners for 'daft elected positions'

Hard to say. Essentially, we're much less local as a people than we used to be - people travel increasingly greater distances between home and work, supply chains are increasingly dispersed. Accordingly, you'd have planning failures where something might be really good for a larger area, but the six or seven constituent areas couldn't arrange it because each of them wanted others to bear a larger part of the costs. Combined authorities are a way around that, and the metropolitan mayors are the "president" of the combined authorities, so they do play quite an important role compared to the useless PCCs.

That said, the fact they have a mayoral structure (presidential) instead of a council leader structure (parliamentary) is frustrating, because they tend to produce a worse political outcome than not.

 

[Roberto Larcos]

These metro mayors completely passed me until recently and I try and stay informed about that kind of thing.


Is there a good case for them or can I file them with police commissioners for 'daft elected positions'

Passing the buck on how cuts are imposed, basically.

 

[Hazzuh]

Scottish independence voting intention:

Yes: 37% (-4)
No: 55% (+8)

(via Kantar TNS / surveyed pre-May announcement)
Chgs. w/ Sep 2016.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

The greatest irony in all of this is that Corbyn is going to leave Labour more damaged than Tony Blair could have ever dreamed. Way to go leftists.

 

[Jezbollah]

Scottish independence voting intention:

Yes: 37% (-4)
No: 55% (+8)

(via Kantar TNS / surveyed pre-May announcement)
Chgs. w/ Sep 2016.

Woof. Seems like that core Yes vote is around the 30-35% that a few of us speculated is true.

Honestly can see May calling for another Scottish referendum as soon as whatever EU deal is announced if this kind of trend continues.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Labour outlining their Brexit policy today - thus a fairly major day for the campaign.

Starmer will say that Labour want to retain the 'benefits' of the single market and customs union... Which is a bit of a sneaky way of having the same policy as May, isn't it?

Nevertheless, once Labour have their Brexit policy, we should be lined up for a proper debate.

 

[AHA-Lambda]

Scottish independence voting intention:

Yes: 37% (-4)
No: 55% (+8)

(via Kantar TNS / surveyed pre-May announcement)
Chgs. w/ Sep 2016.

Fucking hell ;_;
After all this, how the hell does the union argument become stronger?

Only hope to move the needle now would seem to be if Brexit is a disaster

 

[CS_Dan]

Scottish independence voting intention:

Yes: 37% (-4)
No: 55% (+8)

(via Kantar TNS / surveyed pre-May announcement)
Chgs. w/ Sep 2016.

I'm so confused

 

[AHA-Lambda]

OTOH, another poll from the day before puts it at

Yes 43
No 45

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.ed...pport-for-scottish-independence-1-4427523/amp

That new one is the most No heavy I've seen in some time :/

 

[StayDead]

I'm so confused

We live in a world where people will actively vote to hurt themselves.

If a poll asked these people if they wanted to jump off a bridge they'd probably vote for it in favour.

 

[Chinner]

What would happen if the Tories took over Scotland as well as the entire country?

 

[StayDead]

What would happen if the Tories took over Scotland as well as the entire country?

Honestly I would just give up on humanity at that point.

 

[CazTGG]

What would happen if the Tories took over Scotland as well as the entire country?

Ireland will say "well, I suppose it's our turn to become independent(ly reach out and reunite with the Republic of Ireland) and leave this sinking ship".

 

[Huw_Dawson]

I am actually curious what folk's position is on Labour's Brexit policy as they are now billing it. The right tone? Too similar to the Tory policy? Not far enough?

 

[*Splinter]

Starmer will say that Labour want to retain the 'benefits' of the single market and customs union... Which is a bit of a sneaky way of having the same policy as May, isn't it?

I don't know why they don't have explicitly the same policies as May on Brexit. They're close enough already and if both major parties have the same position on Brexit then (surely?) this election stops being about Brexit (and any other topic must be less hopeless for Labour?).

 

[Napoleonthechimp]

Fucking hell ;_;
After all this, how the hell does the union argument become stronger?

Only hope to move the needle now would seem to be if Brexit is a disaster

After the majority voted against their best interests none of this surprises me anymore. Britain has become the domain of the gullible, stupid, and selfish.

 

[Salvadora]

Ireland will say "well, I suppose it's our turn to become independent(ly reach out and reunite with the Republic of Ireland) and leave this sinking ship".

I take it you have never met a Unionist.