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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding
- Thread starter Jezbollah
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Huw_Dawson
Member
Which is the joke LibDemPress are making.
chromatic9
Member
You should move to Germany. Probably the last place to turn right wing.
Do members of Parliament have immunity? Maybe that would be his ticket out of the country, lol. Become MP, flee country.
No MP's in Westminister have parliamentary immunity. Even if he tried to flee from the embassy the authorities are waiting for him outside of the embassy
Jezbollah
Member
Of course, he would need to dodge arrest and extradition for his outstanding rape charges while out campaigning in front of the cameras
A Daily Star poll? Really?
This smells like the right wing press building Farron and the Libs up as credible challengers only to slide the knife in a few days before the election.
Lets not forget the man who owns the Daily Star Richard Desmond also owns the Daily Express. That bastion of liberalism.
This smells like the right wing press building Farron and the Libs up as credible challengers only to slide the knife in a few days before the election.
Lets not forget the man who owns the Daily Star Richard Desmond also owns the Daily Express. That bastion of liberalism.
Guerrillas in the Mist
Member
I knew that Commonwealth citizens in the UK can vote in GEs, but I didn't realise they could stand as a candidate?
Like I said, wet dream. Reality is that May will get an increased majority and we're all fucked.
50% of the vote? The nearest anyone has gotten since the end of the war is
49.7% Con 1955,
49.3% Con 1959,
48.1% Lab 1945,
48.0% Con 1951,
47.7% Lab 1966,
46.2% Lab 1950,
46.0% Con 1970,
44.1% Lab 1964,
Nobody has got more than 45% since that 1970 election, and that's 11 elections.
The last one to get over 40% was Labour in 2001. I think the Cons might manage that, Depends on how many Remain Cons vote LibDem.
Irrelevant anyway as the popular vote means nothing.
I also don't know how votes in Scotland will do, they voted to stay in the UK and now Brexit is happening, some might want to stay still, many I figure will want out now. That might give the LibDems some chance at seats as its clear what the SNP is campaigning on.
He's 'detained' eh? Sure, he's detained himself. Fucking come out and face the music.
What a prat.
ferrasvansen
Member
Yeah I get that but damn this is hardly your typical election, brexiteers are migrating in big numbers to the tories. The UKIP is in meltdown I can see 50% being obtainable, hard to believe but distinctly possible.
travisbickle
Member
Anyone know his view of Corbyn? I remember he wrote a book about pissing off Tony Blair (something like that, never read it)
Huw_Dawson
Member
Marshall-Andrews is the first notable defection. I wonder if others will follow?
Even if every UKIPer voted Cons at the last election it wouldn't have given them 50% of the vote. Close, but not quite.
As I said, the popular vote is largely irrelevant anyway when 1.4m votes can get you 56 seats and 3.88m votes can get you 1.
ferrasvansen
Member
A low turnout could be bad for the Tories. I think that due to the large expectation that Tories will win, that people won't bother to go out and vote for them.
Still, anything can happen over the next 7 weeks. Someone might have a Gordon Brown microphone moment #bigotgate.
Roberto Larcos
Member
Probably not, but it means you're for definite throwing points away - and points win prizes! I also need your nod for Portillo Award, and the question of 'More Conservative seats than Labour in Wales?'.
Who else is joining?
Conservative Party seats:
Green Party seats:
Labour seats:
Lib Dem seats:
Plaid Cymru seats:
SNP seats:
UKIP seats:
Independently held seats:
Seats held by other parties:
BONUS:
Labour wipe-out in Scotland?
More Conservative votes than Labour in Scotland?
More Conservative seats than Labour in Wales?*
The Portillo award goes to..?
First resignation of the night?
How many party leaders will resign?
Seat for Nuttall?
Margin of victory by seats:
Margin of victory by votes:
Scoring works as follows: 1 point per correct seat allocation. 10 points per correct bonus question. For margin of victory by seats, 50 points for a perfect answer, lose 1 point per seat away from that perfect answer that you were. For margin of victory by votes, 50 points for a perfect answer (rounded to 100,000), lose one point per 100,000 that you were away from thay perfect answer. Margins will be between party with most seats / votes and the party with the second most seats / votes. Portillo award winner will be decided on the night.
Quote to reveal the Excel spreadsheet, if you want to have a gander at QuicheFontaine or Crab's predictions.
* Question changed from 'More Plaid Cymru seats than Labour in Wales?'
You Are Viewtiful
Member
What makes you guys think Lib Dems are so out of reach? Undoing Brexit sounds like it would be the most important thing for a lot of people.
whyamihere
Banned
Lib Dems campaigning hard as the Party of Remain would be sort of fascinating.
The vast majority of people want Brexit to go ahead if polls are to be believed.
Tali'Zorah
Member
In rural Norfolk where everyone votes Tory I can vote for whoever I feel like knowing it won't affect the outcome. Which is somewhat good, as it means I can vote with my conscience and vote for the Greens without having to worry about splitting the left-wing vote. But also super super bad as it means my vote is meaningless, because FPTP is the worst.
Lord Thrappleper The 49th
Member
Whilst politics is a keen interest of mine. I shall not be voting.
Pancake Mix
Copied someone else's pancake recipe
That was really the perfect storm for them. Ignoring percentages and just looking as seats won, it's even more lopsided as expected with FPTP.
They had very high tallies in England where most of the population/seats are of course, but they did just as well in gaining most Scottish seats (as the Scottish Unionist Party, and Scotland had a disproportionately high 71 seats at the time) and all but 2 Northern Irish seats (as the Ulster Unionist Party). They didn't do quite as well in Wales but the Tories were very, very strong outside of Wales that year.
Charles Brandon
Member
To be clear Bob Marshall-Roberts hasn't been an MP for seven years. His 'defection' is a nonsense.
Curious what your reason is? Election fatigue? Safe seat?
TiredofWinning
Member
Gonna be bold and saying the Portillo moment will go to Corbyn.
Really wish it was called the Letwin moment instead. Portillo is OK, Letwin is a proven racist tool.
Roberto Larcos
Member
Care to make predictions on everything else?
My own predictions:
Conservative Party seats: 397
Green Party seats: 2
Labour seats: 148
Lib Dem seats: 23
Plaid Cymru seats: 4
SNP seats: 55
UKIP seats: 1
Independently held seats: 3
Seats held by other parties: 17
BONUS:
Labour wipe-out in Scotland? No
More Conservative votes than Labour in Scotland? No
More Conservative seats than Labour in Wales? No
The Portillo award goes to..? Clive Lewis
First resignation of the night? Jeremy Corbyn
How many party leaders will resign? 1
Seat for Nuttall? Yes
Margin of victory by seats: 249
Margin of victory by votes: 3,500,000
King Gilga
Member
Because there's noone decent to vote for. Labor is a mess has really shown their true colors this past year and after 2010 I'd never vote for libdem again. So what throw my vote away on green party or something? Why bother.
Corbyn's seat leans labour harder then Portillo's seat leaned conservative before he lost it.
If Nutall gets a seat this country is officially a dystopia.
Roberto Larcos
Member
Two points:
1) Even in safe seats, votes for the oppositon aren't necessarily 'wasted'. Look at how UKIP's vote tally influenced policy, even though they won just one seat in 2015. Additionally, your vote helps a party reach the 5% minimum threshold required in order for them to save their deposits. If they save their deposit, the party will keep running candidates.
2) The coalition government may have let you down, but the current leader (Farron) was not a member of that government. He also rebelled over student fees, voting against the increase.
Pancake Mix
Copied someone else's pancake recipe
I think that'll be pretty accurate. Give or take 50 seats for Labour and the Tories.
I don't think Nuttall will get a seat though. I think UKIP will get 0.
The coalition of chaos will destroy the british people's chance at a brexit that appeals to them.
Definitely hoping the Lib Dems have a moderate resurgence; obviously it won't be so great to have any position of authority in the next government, but just enough so that they're not completely written-off in the next election as they are now.
They're the only "major" party that aren't tainted by the politics of the last year. They may be tainted by the politics of the years prior, but those skeletons are distinct from the current situation. There's no Brexit blood on their hands, and if anything can gift them relevance, it's that.
They're the only "major" party that aren't tainted by the politics of the last year. They may be tainted by the politics of the years prior, but those skeletons are distinct from the current situation. There's no Brexit blood on their hands, and if anything can gift them relevance, it's that.
You can help save us from the conservatives.
Coalition of Chaos sounds like some kind of comic book supervillain group, like the League of Doom.
vonStirlitz
Unconfirmed Member
If this is a concerted press push, it could seriously backfire on the Tories. A lot of their voters might assume they will get in with a big majority, so be less inclined to turn out.
Really, the issue is on the opposition to mobilise and motivate support, and I can't see it with Corbyn (given the media backlash and internal dissent) and the LibDems (given they aren't going for the all out remain push, which could conceivably net them 49.5% of a national protest vote).
Really, the issue is on the opposition to mobilise and motivate support, and I can't see it with Corbyn (given the media backlash and internal dissent) and the LibDems (given they aren't going for the all out remain push, which could conceivably net them 49.5% of a national protest vote).
Corbyn's Calamitous Coalition of Chaos threatens Brexit! Only Mayday, the Huntsman and Bo-El, Son of Jon, can save the day.
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