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[QuicheFontaine]

Even if every UKIPer voted Cons at the last election it wouldn't have given them 50% of the vote. Close, but not quite.

As I said, the popular vote is largely irrelevant anyway when 1.4m votes can get you 56 seats and 3.88m votes can get you 1.

While that's true, there's certain posters that like to repeatedly point out that the govt "only got 35% of the 62% that bothered to show up" (or whatever the numbers were in 2015) and hence has no mandate for what they're doing. Maybe that will stop if Cons get over 50%?

Spoiler

lolno

 

[Dougald]

About the only unknown in this election round here is if the swing back to the Lib Dems from Labour/The Conservatives will be bigger than the swing to the Conservatives from UKIP. The only UKIP voters I know are safely on the "Theresa May is great" train now

John Redwood will still comfortably get >50% of the vote though

 

[Morat]

Any expat GAF know how to register to vote from another country? As useless as my vote will be in this shit show, I've got to at least try.

Sign up for postal voting, or authorise a trusted person to proxy vote for you. I did the latter when living in Mexico as the post was unreliable.

 

[vonStirlitz]

Spurious bollox conspiracy theory incoming:

Maybe the Tories called an early election while all the old bastards that voted leave (and/or who live in a fairy land of Dame Vera, pounds and ounces and doffed caps to noblery) are still alive. In a few years, the purple rinse brigade will die out and leave a hollow wasteland of empty churches and conservative party meeting clubs, so they are capitalising now while they still have a window of generational opportunity.

The old will eat the young again, mark my words.

 

[iapetus]

after 2010 I'd never vote for libdem again

Congratulations on doing exactly what the Tories want you to. The Lib Dems did a hell of a lot of good in 2010. Everyone focuses on the tuition fees, but that was a necessary move to mitigate a lot of the other damage the Tories did and to get through some genuinely good stuff. Without the coalition, none of the mitigation would have happened, and when the next election happened and the Tories had an absolute majority they'd have pushed through all their shit anyway. Look at the damage the Tories did in coalition government. Now look at the damage they did on their own. Now look at the damage they're going to do with an increased majority.

And after all that you want to blame the Lib Dems for everything that was bad in the coalition government?

 

[Randy Lanzarote]

While that's true, there's certain posters that like to repeatedly point out that the govt "only got 35% of the 62% that bothered to show up" (or whatever the numbers were in 2015) and hence has no mandate for what they're doing. Maybe that will stop if Cons get over 50%?

Spoiler

lolno

"MY 4 MONTH OLD BABY DINT VOTE TORY, TEH TORYS HAVE STOLEN POWER AGAIN!!!!!11"

Facebook gonna be great fun on June 9th.

Congratulations on doing exactly what the Tories want you to. The Lib Dems did a hell of a lot of good in 2010. Everyone focuses on the tuition fees, but that was a necessary move to mitigate a lot of the other damage the Tories did and to get through some genuinely good stuff. Without the coalition, none of the mitigation would have happened, and when the next election happened and the Tories had an absolute majority they'd have pushed through all their shit anyway. Look at the damage the Tories did in coalition government. Now look at the damage they did on their own. Now look at the damage they're going to do with an increased majority.

And after all that you want to blame the Lib Dems for everything that was bad in the coalition government?

This. All day long, I don't feel I was betrayed by the Lib Dems, I'm glad they were there to provide a safety net to stop the Tories pursuing their own agenda for 5yrs.

 

[iapetus]

One good thing about this whole thing is the tories are probably going to win a bunch of labour seats by slim margins(1-10 points ) which probably makes their majority really vulnerable in 2022. The worst case scenario is that they will easily break 400 seats on June 8th.

Frankly I don't give a flying fuck about them being vulnerable in 2022. They're going to do irreparable damage to the country and the future of my children before that. A reduced majority or a Labour government in 2022 isn't going to do much to help that - if anything it's the classic Tory story. Fuck everything up, get voted out, then blame it all on the Labour government that gets left trying to sort out their mess.

 

[RenditMan]

Spurious bollox conspiracy theory incoming:

Maybe the Tories called an early election while all the old bastards that voted leave (and/or who live in a fairy land of Dame Vera, pounds and ounces and doffed caps to noblery) are still alive. In a few years, the purple rinse brigade will die out and leave a hollow wasteland of empty churches and conservative party meeting clubs, so they are capitalising now while they still have a window of generational opportunity.

The old will eat the young again, mark my words.

Perpetual cycle my friend, people generally get more conservative thinking economically as they get older and the stresses and financial pressures of family life bite.

 

[phisheep]

Minor conspiracy theory.

I was wondering about the rationale for the early election, in particular the claim that an election in 2020 would be massively disruptive to negotiations.

Turns out that Haltemprice and Howden is one of the constituencies that vanishes with the new boundary review, its MP is David Davis, the Minister for Exiting the EU.

Connected?

 

[RenditMan]

Minor conspiracy theory.

I was wondering about the rationale for the early election, in particular the claim that an election in 2020 would be massively disruptive to negotiations.

Turns out that Haltemprice and Howden is one of the constituencies that vanishes with the new boundary review, its MP is David Davis, the Minister for Exiting the EU.

Connected?

I just think May realized that her majority wasn't enough to go the EU with a stable platform. It also gives us a look at the Scotland question.

This general election is essentially a referendum on the referendum, IMO anyway.

 

[mo60]

Frankly I don't give a flying fuck about them being vulnerable in 2022. They're going to do irreparable damage to the country and the future of my children before that. A reduced majority or a Labour government in 2022 isn't going to do much to help that - if anything it's the classic Tory story. Fuck everything up, get voted out, then blame it all on the Labour government that gets left trying to sort out their mess.

Yeah. I agree. I rather the tories be kicked on June 8th or reduced to a minority to reduce the amount of damage they can cause but without a really strong opposition that is not likely at the moment. I just hope this early election calls ends up hurting the conservatives more then it will help them. A government where I live a few years ago tried a similar move to this but instead of calling an early election 3 years early they called one about a year early. The opposition was really weak at the time but one of the opposition parties was able to pull off a historic victory in that election because they were able to appeal to voters that were pissed off at the governing party.

 

[Uzzy]

Minor conspiracy theory.

I was wondering about the rationale for the early election, in particular the claim that an election in 2020 would be massively disruptive to negotiations.

Turns out that Haltemprice and Howden is one of the constituencies that vanishes with the new boundary review, its MP is David Davis, the Minister for Exiting the EU.

Connected?

It'd have become Hull West and Haltemprice, which would almost certainly be a competitive seat. I suppose that had the Brexit negotiations gone bad, Davis might have been at risk.

 

[TimmmV]

Congratulations on doing exactly what the Tories want you to. The Lib Dems did a hell of a lot of good in 2010. Everyone focuses on the tuition fees, but that was a necessary move to mitigate a lot of the other damage the Tories did and to get through some genuinely good stuff. Without the coalition, none of the mitigation would have happened, and when the next election happened and the Tories had an absolute majority they'd have pushed through all their shit anyway. Look at the damage the Tories did in coalition government. Now look at the damage they did on their own. Now look at the damage they're going to do with an increased majority.

And after all that you want to blame the Lib Dems for everything that was bad in the coalition government?

What is this good stuff they supposedly did? Honest question

My memory is 7 years of constant shit (albeit with the last year or so admittedly being worse than any of the preceding 6), not 5 years of diluted shit and then 2.5 years of concentrated shit

I keep hearing that the Lib Dems held the Tories back, but it doesn't seem like they did a very good job of doing that. We still got Austerity with both barrels - and to me it seems like the Lib Dems enabled that by giving the Tories a majority in government

I say this as a Lib Dem supporter in 2010 too, and someone who hates my local Labour MP. I want to trust the Lib Dems again, just see no evidence to justify that

 

[chromatic9]

Bit strange to see how the parties are being spun by people now. The two big parties are centre right and centre left, Both have been in power recently and supported by the same press. New Labour was well known to be a mix of both and Tories have been very Labour like in social issues and benefits. Both have been progressive, its not like the US at all but seems some are trying to paint that.

They've been "two cheeks of the same arse" for a long time. Lots of Labour voters voted leave as did many Tories voted remain. Think how many voted in Labour before. You should be looking at the collapse of Labour rather than gesticulating about bleeding Tories voting share or saying its all gone right wing.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Lots of people voting Lib Dem on here.

I think the moment I realised how far we'd come in two years was when Clegg got applause from young people in a Question Time audience in Birmingham at the end of last month.

I don't think people view the coalition as that bad anymore. It's odd. Maybe our 2010 predictions that time in government would be ultimately good for us has finally come true? :\

EDIT:
The Islington Gazette has its front page declaring that Thornberry and Corbyn could lose their seats at this election!

 

[CCS]

Me and some mates were tossing about the idea of forming a Wenger Out party to run against Corbyn in Islington. Made me realise I have no idea what's actually involved in starting your own party

 

[Charles Brandon]

Anyone else think that John McDonnell looks vulnerable?

He's got a big majority but he's also in a big "leave" seat, which the Tories have held before

 

[spunodi]

Me and some mates were tossing about the idea of forming a Wenger Out party to run against Corbyn in Islington. Made me realise I have no idea what's actually involved in starting your own party

The Electoral Commission site provides a ton of guidance I'm pretty sure. Checked it out many years ago among teenage dreams of world domination.

 

[Blackthorn]

Perpetual cycle my friend, people generally get more conservative thinking economically as they get older and the stresses and financial pressures of family life bite.

Glad this has never been true in my family. They all get more furiously left wing as they get older, I'm proud to have them as political role models.

 

[mo60]

Anyone else think that John McDonnell looks vulnerable?

He's got a big majority but he's also in a big "leave" seat, which the Tories have held before

He should be safe since his seat is in a metropolitian area I think. I think the labour MP's that will have to worry about losing their seats are in the labour heartland nsome other places where they won by low single digit margins or high single digit margins.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Me and some mates were tossing about the idea of forming a Wenger Out party to run against Corbyn in Islington. Made me realise I have no idea what's actually involved in starting your own party

http://www.electoralcommission.org....l-parties/registering-and-maintaining-a-party

 

[Dougald]

Me and some mates were tossing about the idea of forming a Wenger Out party to run against Corbyn in Islington. Made me realise I have no idea what's actually involved in starting your own party

IIRC you just need to pay a deposit, get some local constituents to sponsor you and set up a campaign HQ. Should be easy enough to get a pub to set you up there

You'll probably lose that deposit though!

 

[Charles Brandon]

He should be safe since his seat is in a metropolitian area I think. I think the labour MP's that will have to worry about losing their seats are in the labour heartland

he's in Hayes, which, whilst in London, is not "metropolitan elite" London. Lots of white working class, big leavers, much more "heartland" than the seats further towards the centre.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

IIRC you just need to pay a deposit, get some local constituents to sponsor you and set up a campaign HQ. Should be easy enough to get a pub to set you up there

You'll probably lose that deposit though!

You're underestimating how unpopular Jeremy Corbyn Arsene Wenger is, though.

And yeah, the Tories will focus on decapitation strategies again most likely - it worked in 2015 - so expect to see any blue Labour seat being targeted, ESPECIALLY if it's held by a big cheese.

 

[Dougald]

Lots of people voting Lib Dem on here.

I think the moment I realised how far we'd come in two years was when Clegg got applause from young people in a Question Time audience in Birmingham at the end of last month.

I don't think people view the coalition as that bad anymore. It's odd. Maybe our 2010 predictions that time in government would be ultimately good for us has finally come true? :\

EDIT:
The Islington Gazette has its front page declaring that Thornberry and Corbyn could lose their seats at this election!

For what it's worth you'll probably have my vote again. Maybe the Lib Dems can return to their distant second-place here after the drubbing of 2015

 

[8bit]

Any expat GAF know how to register to vote from another country? As useless as my vote will be in this shit show, I've got to at least try.

Go here, click the green button.

https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote

As long as you're not out of the country for more than 15 years you should be good.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/854971863738576896

Yougov polling suggests 63% of Britons believe that a Tory majority is going to happen.

 

[Charles Brandon]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/854971863738576896

Yougov polling suggests 63% of Britons believe that a Tory majority is going to happen.

Should also mention that:

Hung parliament = 6
Don''t know = 22
Labour = 4 (four!)

 

[Huw_Dawson]

If Corbyn cannot be taken seriously then this general election is going to be a bloodbath.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Should also mention that:

Hung parliament = 6
Don''t know = 22
Labour = 4 (four!)

Lol. It looks like the country is split between those who know what a majority actually is and those that don't. Then there are 10% of weirdos.

 

[PJV3]

If Corbyn cannot be taken seriously then this general election is going to be a bloodbath.

I'm kind of hoping Labour voters think of the era post Corbyn and don't truly decimate it. It's trying to work out at what point the loon will walk away, maybe he won't even if its just him and Abbott in the shadow cabinet.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

I'm kind of hoping Labour voters think of the era post Corbyn and don't truly decimate it. It's trying to work out at what point the loon will walk away, maybe he won't even if its just him and Abbott in the shadow cabinet.

It's time for a split in the Labour party anyway. Maybe losing big at this election is a necessary part of that process?

 

[phisheep]

I'm kind of hoping Labour voters think of the era post Corbyn and don't truly decimate it. It's trying to work out at what point the loon will walk away, maybe he won't even if its just him and Abbott in the shadow cabinet.

That's not a really compelling message either though. "Vote Labour and you don't know what you'll be getting".

I'll auction this sealed brown paper parcel, who'll start me at a tenner?

 

[Snowman]

That's not a really compelling message either though. "Vote Labour and you don't know what you'll be getting".

I'll auction this sealed brown paper parcel, who'll start me at a tenner?

Worked for the Leave campaign

 

[Huw_Dawson]

This is why I'm bullish about Lib Dem chances at this election. We have actual policy, we have clear stances, we're clearly in opposition to the government, and we're not run by Nick Clegg.

That's a good cocktail for some serious good vibes in the next six weeks.

 

[PJV3]

It's time for a split in the Labour party anyway. Maybe losing big at this election is a necessary part of that process?

I'm not really interested in a split without voting reform, what's the point of taking back control from Brussels if the big three parties are forced on to narrow political ground.

Or maybe you want the left to dissappear and have essentially a two party system.


@Phi, I know but I'm starting to think Labour would actually have better results without a leader at the moment, he's pissed off so many people on the left with his nonsense.

 

[Lord Thrappleper The 49th]

Curious what your reason is? Election fatigue? Safe seat?

I have never found a party which aligns with my goals. I reject the notion that you have to vote for the person you dislike the least.

 

[Charles Brandon]

I have never found a party which aligns with my goals. I reject the notion that you have to vote for the person you dislike the least.

Even if it means that you end up with the person you dislike the most? Never see the logic in that. Not that it really matters this time.

If you're any kind of remainer you may want to throw a vote at the lib dems purely to register your approval of their stance, at least.

 

[tomtom94]

Rumours saying the Tories are considering dropping the 0.7% budget contribution to foreign aid, so we can guarantee that will be in their manifesto.

 

[Real Hero]

I have never found a party which aligns with my goals. I reject the notion that you have to vote for the person you dislike the least.

that's democracy

 

[WhateverItTakes]

I have never found a party which aligns with my goals. I reject the notion that you have to vote for the person you dislike the least.

Sure, but then you have to embrace the reality that you let the worst possible outcome happen, as opposed to one a little more tenable. What's the point when you could've helped make the future better?

 

[Ravensmash]

Rumours saying the Tories are considering dropping the 0.7% budget contribution to foreign aid, so we can guarantee that will be in their manifesto.

Ah, populism.

 

[Lord Thrappleper The 49th]

Sure, but then you have to embrace the reality that you let the worst possible outcome happen, as opposed to one a little more tenable. What's the point when you could've helped make the future better?

How would you define a better future?

In fact thats an open question.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

I'm not really interested in a split without voting reform, what's the point of taking back control from Brussels if the big three parties are forced on to narrow political ground.

Or maybe you want the left to dissappear and have essentially a two party system.

No, I just think that it's damaging Labour to be pulling in two different directions. Better to have a party of Blairites and a separate party of Corbynistas imo.

Edit:

Rumours saying the Tories are considering dropping the 0.7% budget contribution to foreign aid, so we can guarantee that will be in their manifesto.

Another policy nicked from UKIP. The Tories are really going to eat their lunch on 8th June!

 

[CyclopsRock]

This is why I'm bullish about Lib Dem chances at this election. We have actual policy, we have clear stances

Such as hating students and the gays.

(I'm kidding btw, I don't mind the Lib Dems really).

 

[Hazzuh]

Some of the speech Corbyn just gave:

 

[phisheep]

@Phi, I know but I'm starting to think Labour would actually have better results without a leader at the moment, he's pissed off so many people on the left with his nonsense.

That might actually work (well, work better than the alternative).

 

[Halph n Halph]

Rumours saying the Tories are considering dropping the 0.7% budget contribution to foreign aid, so we can guarantee that will be in their manifesto.

Newsnight mentioned a combined defence and foreign aid budget bringing it to 3% of GDP.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Corbyn has a lady at his own speech who takes questions for him, and only passes them on if they're not difficult ones.

And when he gets asked about if he's going to raise taxes for anyone, he says he's rolling free school meals...

 

[OverBlood 3]

Corbyn has a lady at his own speech who takes questions for him, and only passes them on if they're not difficult ones.

And when he gets asked about if he's going to raise taxes for anyone, he says he's rolling free school meals...

Don't be ridiculous I'm watching it right now. It's not 'a lady' it's Dawn Butler an MP. He was asked about being part of 'the Islington elite'.

He answered all the questions.