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[DECK'ARD]

YouGov regional aggregates with changes from the 2005 election:

YG Regional Aggregates	Con	Lab	LD	NAT
North East		22 (+2)	44 (-9)	29 (+6)	-
North West		30 (+1)	34 (-11)28 (+7)	-
Yorks & Humber		32 (+3)	30 (-14)30 (+9)	-
East Midlands		34 (-3)	29 (-10)29 (+11)-
West Midlands		38 (+3)	30 (-9)	23 (+4)	-
East of England		44 (+1)	21 (-9)	27 (+5)	-
London			36 (+4)	31 (-8)	26 (+4)	-
South East		44 (-1)	17 (-7)	31 (+6)	-
South West		36 (-3)	16 (-7)	41 (+8)	-
Wales			27 (+6)	37 (-6)	21 (+3)	8 (-5)
Scotland		14 (-2)	37 (-2)	22 (-1)	25 (+7)
GB			34 (+1)	28 (-8)	28 (+5)	-

I think this highlights how difficult this election is to predict. How the Lib Dem rise plays out in the different regions and marginals is going to decide if the Conservatives get an overall majority.

Tomorrow is going to be a rollercoaster ...

 

[iapetus]

We need a party and a leader with the steel to take the unpopular decisions that undoubtedly lie ahead — yet with the compassion to address the inequalities exposed recently in this paper's Dispossessed series on London's poor.

So you're declaring for the party and leader with the biggest gap between their proposed cuts and proposed spending? Good plan...

 

[painey]

done some more research, including previous election results and decided my 3 local votes will all be for the local representatives who were just 100 votes shy last election of getting in. We will have our first UKIP candidate this year, but thankfully no BNP running here.

 

[blazinglord]

Great article from the Indy today. Stephen Fry pointed me to it on Twitter.


Johann Hari: Welcome to Cameron land



Remember when they told you the wealth would 'trickle down'...

You know that's a rather harrowing article actually. I am passionate about the plight of homeless people and I have done voluntary work at homeless shelters on a number of occasions.

On the issue of homelessness, I do think that the government should step in and put money into homeless shelters and help homeless people get onto their feet and get the right training. A disproportionate amount of homeless people have been in care when they were younger or have had history of mental problems. This is what makes me so angry about the current welfare system, parasites on benefits who are able to work but can't be bothered to get such an easy ride while the really needy in society, which are people who sleep rough and all the belongings they have are in two plastic bin bags, are just ignored. What makes it worse, is that the coverage of those unnecessarily on benefits makes it harder to take visible and effective action for the people that really need society's help. Stop spending money on free computers and broadband for 'poor' families and encouraging welfare dependency, and instead start putting money into shelters, training and implement some proper reform of mental healthcare and foster/adoption care.

 

[SmokyDave]

East Midlands CON 34 (-3) LAB 29 (-10) LIB 29 (+11)-

Yeah!!!

I was getting worried because the only parties I see overtly supported round my way are Labour and The BNP.

 

[Chinner]

Hey iapteus, mind changing the topic to reflect tomorrows election and the wait throughout the night?

 

[killer_clank]

Labour can come 4th in the scottish popular vote and they'd still get the most seats, from what I've read. FPTP is a joke. :lol

 

[Withnail]

Apparently for the whole day tomorrow the front page of YouTube will be an advert to vote Conservative. Wonder how much that is costing? CAshcroft strikes again!

 

[Chinner]

Apparently for the whole day tomorrow the front page of YouTube will be an advert to vote Conservative. Wonder how much that is costing? CAshcroft strikes again!

It's true, and pretty sickening!

 

[mclem]

As much as I hate the Tories, I can't say I'm at all enamoured by the idea of another 5 years of Labour. Whenever I think they seem like they're talking sense, all it takes is one second to think of all the crap they've done over the last 13 years.

Why would it change now?

The thing is, I just *can't* help but think of all the crap over the 16 years prior to *that*, too. And, well, maybe my memory's playing up, but I do think that crap was worse.

It feels bizarre saying it, but I think the folks younger than me who've barely known a Tory government - say people up to age 24 or so - are the ones who may decide this election. Me, my perception of them from my formative years still burns strong.

Edit: Having said all that, it's pretty irrelevant anyway; I'm in a spot where I can vote with my conscience and possibly make a difference: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford_East_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

 

[Chinner]

Just been talking to my sister about who to vote for. She'd like to vote, but she doesn't feel like she knows enough to be able to cast a proper opinionated vote; I suspect allot of the population feels the same way.

Just been talking to her telling her that it would be more beneficial to vote Lib Dem. It's funny because both my father and I are both opinionated when it comes to politics, but we're both opposite of the political spectrum (he's strong right, I'm strong left). I never talk to him directly about it though. Anyway, she seemed to like the idea of the marriage tax-break, but she lost her enthusiasm when I told her she won't get it if both of them are working.

Funnily enough, it seems like my parents want the Lib Dems to go into a coalition with the Tories so if everything fucks up they can use them as a scape goat :lol .

parents.jpg.

 

[Xun]

If Labour win I will no longer have faith in this country.

But I guess if people love their "1984" shit then that's fine for some, but not for me.

And fuck the Tories as well.

 

[Gary Whitta]

I have a bad feeling about tomorrow. Is this slimy deal that Cameron made with the Ulster unionists really going to put him over the top?

 

[J Tourettes]

I have a bad feeling about tomorrow. Is this slimy deal that Cameron made with the Ulster unionists really going to put him over the top?

What deal? The Unionists would always side with the Tories

 

[brain_stew]

The thing is, I just *can't* help but think of all the crap over the 16 years prior to *that*, too. And, well, maybe my memory's playing up, but I do think that crap was worse.

It feels bizarre saying it, but I think the folks younger than me who've barely known a Tory government - say people up to age 24 or so - are the ones who may decide this election. Me, my perception of them from my formative years still burns strong.

Edit: Having said all that, it's pretty irrelevant anyway; I'm in a spot where I can vote with my conscience and possibly make a difference: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford_East_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Hey don't tar us all with the same brush, some of us may have been to young to remember it first hand but Thatcher's legacy lives on in many of us. I may have been a toddler when she ruled but I'll be joining in the street parties when she finally pops her clogs.

Having a deep hatred of Thatcher and the Tories is still a rights of passage for most children in the north east and is ingrained from an early age, as I'm sure it is in Wales, Scotland many other part of the country.

 

[DECK'ARD]

The thought of any possibility of electoral reform dying tomorrow for another 5 years atleast is plain depressing.

 

[Lear]

The thing is, I just *can't* help but think of all the crap over the 16 years prior to *that*, too. And, well, maybe my memory's playing up, but I do think that crap was worse.

It feels bizarre saying it, but I think the folks younger than me who've barely known a Tory government - say people up to age 24 or so - are the ones who may decide this election. Me, my perception of them from my formative years still burns strong.

Edit: Having said all that, it's pretty irrelevant anyway; I'm in a spot where I can vote with my conscience and possibly make a difference: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford_East_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Yay, Oxford East! High five!

I'm glad to be at a constituency for uni where my vote will actually make a difference. My home constituency is very much a safe Labour seat, so it's pretty pointless voting there. (also, I can't be arsed with going home to vote anyway).

 

[FuturusX]

I'll be heading home from to the UK for the first time in a very long while. I hope to be greeted by the citizens of a coalition government, but I brace for the for the worst.

On the eve of the 1983 election – which, until this year, seemed destined to represent for ever the low watermark of Labour performances – a young member of the party's shadow cabinet delivered what was to be one of his most compelling speeches. Neil Kinnock knew a landslide defeat was imminent so, speaking in Bridgend, he sketched the world to come. "I warn you," he began, addressing a nation about to descend into the bitterest stretch of the Thatcher era. "I warn you not to be ordinary. I warn you not to be young. I warn you not to fall ill. I warn you not to get old."

It was a rhetorical masterpiece from a man whose oratory would later be much mocked. But its power was its prescience. Kinnock saw the Thatcherite tsunami that was coming and warned of the deluge that would follow.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/05/1983-cameron-victory-kinnocks-words

 

[DECK'ARD]

David Cameron's Vision For Britain:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHR6-KN-8uI

He's sounding more believable here ...

 

[Mr. Sam]

Damn, I just thought of a great Lib Dem slogan but it's too late:

"Do you like apples? I got her number. How do you like Lib Dem apples?"

Next time, next time.

 

[Meadows]

David Cameron's Vision For Britain:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHR6-KN-8uI

He's sounding more believable here ...

haha 4km Tower of David in Leicester :lol

 

[Songbird]

It's almost judgement day. Could automatic guillotines be in our future? :lol

 

[Walshicus]

Apparently for the whole day tomorrow the front page of YouTube will be an advert to vote Conservative. Wonder how much that is costing? CAshcroft strikes again!

It'll be "fuck youtube" for the bulk of their viewers then.

 

[Shanadeus]

LibDem yay!

 

[killer_clank]

Can't wait for the newspaper headlines tonight. The sun's is sure to be a masterpiece of Tory promotion.

 

[Withnail]

Telegraph: Robert Mugabe gives David Cameron election backing

The Zimbabwe president said his country would have better relations with London if the Conservatives got in.

"We have always related better with the British through the Conservatives than Labour," he said. "We have a better chance with David Cameron than with Brown."

"Conservatives are bold, Blair and Brown run away when they see me, but not these fools, they know how to relate to others."

Priceless :lol

 

[killer_clank]

Telegraph: Robert Mugabe gives David Cameron election backing



Priceless :lol

:lol :lol :lol :lol

 

[mclem]

Hey don't tar us all with the same brush, some of us may have been to young to remember it first hand but Thatcher's legacy lives on in many of us. I may have been a toddler when she ruled but I'll be joining in the street parties when she finally pops her clogs.

The only brush I'm actually tarring you guys with is the statement that you're the group who matter

Some won't vote; some won't be affected by the bias I exhibit (It's a long time before I'd ever consider voting Tory, and that's mostly irrational these days; it's more me than them), and some will. How those numbers shake down will probably decide the fate of the country.

So... no pressure

 

[NekoFever]

Telegraph: Robert Mugabe gives David Cameron election backing



Priceless :lol

The Tories get all the best celebrity endorsements.

 

[scotcheggz]

The only brush I'm actually tarring you guys with is the statement that you're the group who matter

Some won't vote; some won't be affected by the bias I exhibit (It's a long time before I'd ever consider voting Tory, and that's mostly irrational these days; it's more me than them), and some will. How those numbers shake down will probably decide the fate of the country.

So... no pressure

I know what you mean man, in the run up to the election, well, before it was actually announced I was wondering who to vote for, playing with ideas in my head and that and I resolved that I just can't bring myself to vote Tory.

I thought myself too, it is more me than them, but then the campaign starting rolling and I realised it's not. It is deffinately them.

 

[DECK'ARD]

 

[Ashes]

bloody hell. All that need's is the mastercard priceless slogan.
Respect party are campaigning really hard here. Hope the lib dem and labour don't split the vote.

 

[killer_clank]

Populus for The Times:
Conservative: 37% (+1%)
Labour: 28% (+1%)
Liberal Democrats: 27% (-1%)

Guys, I'm getting worried.

 

[Chinner]

Actually, the better Labour do the better chance we get a hung parliament.

 

[killer_clank]

Actually, the better Labour do the better chance we get a hung parliament.

Yeah, but with those figures, the Tories won't find it hard to form a government. They'd be on 300 seats, and they'd probably be boosted by the unionists in Northern Ireland.

 

[Chinner]

if they unionists get any seats, and if the numbers they get are substantial.

 

[killer_clank]

if they unionists get any seats, and if the numbers they get are substantial.

Yeah, I know fuck all about NI politics.

I'm just more focusing on the trends I'm seeing in some polls, with the Tories pulling forward slightly.

Now here's an odd poll:

Angus Reid for Politicalbetting:
Conservatives: 36% (+1%)
Labour: 24% (+1%)
Liberal Democrats: 29% (-1%)

 

[Chinner]

This poll should make people happy!

The final daily tracker poll by YouGov for The Sun has a surge for the Lib Dems.
Conservatives. 35%, unchanged since yesterday.
Labour. 28%, down two points.
Liberal Democrats. 28%, up four.

 

[Mr. Sam]

Short story that will probably surprise you. My brother has a Politics degree from a reputable university. This, I suppose (you'll see in a second), means he studied Politics at quite a high level for three years. Yet he doesn't understand why the First Past The Past system is unfair. He seems to believe it's because the variation in population sizes between constituencies that's unfair (I think he's thinking of the fucking 1832 Reform Act).

I tried to explain it to him that it was because huge portions of the vote are cancelled out on a constituency-by-constituency basis that it makes the final result in terms of seats grossly disproportionate almost without exception. He wasn't having it. After all, why should he? My highest qualification on the matter is an A-Level in Politics - where I had FPTP's shortcomings explained to me in my very first lesson.

Spoiler

I am right, aren't I?

 

[FabCam]

Apparently for the whole day tomorrow the front page of YouTube will be an advert to vote Conservative. Wonder how much that is costing? CAshcroft strikes again!

It cost less than the LibDem advert in the Times.

As unpopular Conservatives are in this forum, GO TORIES!

I've got everything crossed for an overall majority, which, if it does happen, will be so incredibly tight.

Main reasons for voting Tory:

-We need massive cuts. The reason Cameron doesn't outline them all is because it would be highly unpopular yet it is essential to rectify our massive debt.
-Not increasing top band of tax.
-Raising the criminally low inheritance tax threshold.
-Cutting corporation tax.
-Stance on welfare.

So yeah, say what you will. My vote is set. Hoping for a good result!

 

[DECK'ARD]

Angus Reid/Politicalbetting
CONSERVATIVES - 36% (+1)
LABOUR - 24% (+1)
LIB DEMS - 29% (nc)

YouGov/The Sun
CONSERVATIVES - 35% (nc)
LABOUR - 28% (-2)
LIB DEMS - 28% (+4)

Populus/TheTimes
CONSERVATIVES - 37% (+1)
LABOUR - 28% (+1)
LIB DEMS - 27% (-1)

TNS - BMRB
CONSERVATIVES - 33% (-1)
LABOUR - 27% (nc)
LIB DEMS - 29% (-1)

Opinium - D. Express
CONSERVATIVES - 35% (+2)
LABOUR - 27% (-1)
LIB DEMS - 26% (-1)

-

Average:
CONSERVATIVES - 35.2%
LABOUR - 26.8%
LIB DEMS - 27.8%

Seats (BBC projection):
CONSERVATIVES - 285
LABOUR - 252
LIB DEMS - 84

Hung Parliament
Conservatives 41 short of a majority
LibLab coalition majority of 10

 

[Sage00]

Short story that will probably surprise you. My brother has a Politics degree from a reputable university. This, I suppose (you'll see in a second), means he studied Politics at quite a high level for three years. Yet he doesn't understand why the First Past The Past system is unfair. He seems to believe it's because the variation in population sizes between constituencies that's unfair (I think he's thinking of the fucking 1832 Reform Act).

I tried to explain it to him that it was because huge portions of the vote are cancelled out on a constituency-by-constituency basis that it makes the final result in terms of seats grossly disproportionate almost without exception. He wasn't having it. After all, why should he? My highest qualification on the matter is an A-Level in Politics - where I had FPTP's shortcomings explained to me in my very first lesson.

Spoiler

I am right, aren't I?

You're right. Lib Dem votes are spread evenly across the country, while Labour and the Tories have 'Labour areas' and 'Tory areas', where there's a large amount of their supporters concentrated in that one part. Because FPTP only takes into account single areas, Lib Dems could have much much more votes than Labour and the Tories in total, but have a lot less seats since they'll keep coming second to Labour and the Tories in their respective strongholds.

 

[LabouredSubterfuge]

Short story that will probably surprise you. My brother has a Politics degree from a reputable university. This, I suppose (you'll see in a second), means he studied Politics at quite a high level for three years. Yet he doesn't understand why the First Past The Past system is unfair. He seems to believe it's because the variation in population sizes between constituencies that's unfair (I think he's thinking of the fucking 1832 Reform Act).

I tried to explain it to him that it was because huge portions of the vote are cancelled out on a constituency-by-constituency basis that it makes the final result in terms of seats grossly disproportionate almost without exception. He wasn't having it. After all, why should he? My highest qualification on the matter is an A-Level in Politics - where I had FPTP's shortcomings explained to me in my very first lesson.

Spoiler

I am right, aren't I?

Yes you are.

 

[Mr. Sam]

I'm tired of all these opinion polls. I think that the country should just have one big opinion poll where everyone can participate if they wish. That way we'd finally know what everyone thought.

 

[Sage00]

I'm tired of all these opinion polls. I think that the country should just have one big opinion poll where everyone can participate if they wish. That way we'd finally know what everyone thought.

BBC, ITV and Sky are teaming up to do a massive exit poll of 10,000 people or something tomorrow.

 

[killer_clank]

I wish Clegg would actually say what he would do in a hung parliament. He did say that electoral reform was compulsory but then went back on it. He also has explicitly said he won't form a coalition with Gordon Brown, but fuck knows anymore.

And I'm stopping paying attention to the polls now.

 

[Spirit of Jazz]

If Labour win I will no longer have faith in this country.

But I guess if people love their "1984" shit then that's fine for some, but not for me.

And fuck the Tories as well.

Sorry, but I think Murdoch/Tory control over the countries media is far more "1984" in prospect that Labours ludicrous ideas of using cameras to prevent criminal activity in areas and I.D. cards to easily identify local and illegal immigrants.

I wish Clegg would actually say what he would do in a hung parliament. He did say that electoral reform was compulsory but then went back on it. He also has explicitly said he won't form a coalition with Gordon Brown, but fuck knows anymore.

And I'm stopping paying attention to the polls now.

I agree with this, if he spent his time telling the public how few of their votes count for anything and that he'd pull for a referendum within the shortest time possible (possibly even another election in a couple of months?) Then I think he'd have an easy time winning.

 

[killer_clank]

BBC, ITV and Sky are teaming up to do a massive exit poll of 10,000 people or something tomorrow.

I presume this is the one where they actually ask how people voted? God, I can't wait for that one. Should easily be the most accurate, especially as it will include those who only decided on the day.

 

[Michan]

I'm a little stuck between Conservative and Liberal Democrat. I agree with various policies set out by both parties, but don't want to risk a hung parliament with Labour floating so closely in the polls. I want my vote to be well-spent. I'm pretty sure I'll be ticking the Conservative box tomorrow, unless I can be swung otherwise in these precious hours.

 

[scotcheggz]

It cost less than the LibDem advert in the Times.

As unpopular Conservatives are in this forum, GO TORIES!

I've got everything crossed for an overall majority, which, if it does happen, will be so incredibly tight.

Main reasons for voting Tory:

-We need massive cuts. The reason Cameron doesn't outline them all is because it would be highly unpopular yet it is essential to rectify our massive debt.
-Not increasing top band of tax.
-Raising the criminally low inheritance tax threshold.
-Cutting corporation tax.
-Stance on welfare.

So yeah, say what you will. My vote is set. Hoping for a good result!

Read the bolded parts of what you wrote and then ask yourself an honest question. WHY do YOU think Torys are unpopular?