Its not really a good comparison. No individual USA state can block a treaty either. It's a function of the EU that it works that way, and then a function of Belgium within the EU.
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UK PoliGAF |OT2| - We Blue Ourselves
- Thread starter Jezbollah
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Its not really a good comparison. No individual USA state can block a treaty either. It's a function of the EU that it works that way, and then a function of Belgium within the EU.
FlammableD
Banned
jfc
I just can't.
How will we make the EU pay?
How does setting ourselves up as an off-shore tax haven suddenly become a good thing for the people of this country? WE COULD DO THAT RIGHT NOW IN THE EU IF WE WANTED TOO - IRELAND ALREADY IS! WE DON't BECAUSE IT'S A TERRIBLE, BAD THING!
I'm just... speechless. What gibberish, nonsensical sycophancy.
How will we make the EU pay?
How does setting ourselves up as an off-shore tax haven suddenly become a good thing for the people of this country? WE COULD DO THAT RIGHT NOW IN THE EU IF WE WANTED TOO - IRELAND ALREADY IS! WE DON't BECAUSE IT'S A TERRIBLE, BAD THING!
I'm just... speechless. What gibberish, nonsensical sycophancy.
Yeah, there's a lot further to go. I think a proper federal system for the UK would be the right way to go, with powers being devolved to the English regions and Scotland/Wales/NI. Fixing the fault lines exposed by Brexit through a new constitutional arrangement would be one benefit of this whole affair.
We threaten to make Farage our Ambassador to the EU after we leave.
Again, a normal federal system wouldn't allow one state to veto a foreign policy decision made by the federal government. Doesnt happen in the USA, Germany, Australia or any other federal government - because it wouldn't allow for any foreign policy decisions to be taken!
It's a unique circumstance brought about by Belgiums weirdness as a country, and then the EU decision making process which gives every country a veto. No federal system for the UK would stop Brexit happening.
Well, a Belgian style system could have, and you could easily have a system that allowed states/regions/countries have more say over the process.
But really I wasn't on about a federal system stopping Brexit, but rather that it's something long overdue. We're already going to be in a process of profound constitutional change thanks to Brexit, so it'd be a great waste if that just resulted in more powers going to Westminster. A bold program of constitutional reform in response to Brexit would certainly get my support.
My point was that Belgium really isn't a federal system - it's basically three very small countries stitched together. It has a a unique system of governance because of its history and background that would never be implemented anywhere else. Closest I can think to of it weirdly enough is Northern Ireland, where by law you have to have a unionist and a republican in the top two posts.
I do agree the different bits of the UK should get more involvement in the process. I just don't think (as much as I hate Brexit) they should have the opportunity to block it, because that would be a system that led to total foreign policy paralysis, remove one of the main points of Westminster, and eventually lead the country to break apart IMHO. More devolved powers to regions - absolutely. Just not foreign policy,
Jezbollah
Member
the Party of Brexit bus has been parked
PJV3
Member
Sadly from a internationalist/left perspective the timing of Brexit and the next election are perfect for the tories.
By the time decisions start to bite she will be in with a bigger majority, unless they manage to completely fuck up the negotiations.
Jezbollah
Member
I think this needs posting.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-38685158
Ian Paisley says "thank you" to Martin McGuinness.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-38685158
Ian Paisley says "thank you" to Martin McGuinness.
The journey that Northern Ireland has seen in my lifetime has been a quiet miracle. Watching people like Martin McGuinness change and commit to peace in this way goes to show that nothing is cast in stone.
If you had told someone pre Good Friday agreeement that Martin McGuinness and Ian Paisley would end up running Northern Ireland together in a successful partnership, and that he would shake the queens hand, they would think it as mad as Donald Trump becoming president.
Audioboxer
Member
Shots fired at Corbyn lol
Roberto Larcos
Member
Shots fired at Corbyn lol
I think we're (finally) seeing the end days for Corbyn. Defeat in Copeland or Stoke will seal it.
Audioboxer
Member
I mean say what you want about independence up here, but Corbyn is a lunatic attacking the SNP/even Scots who do agree with independence given that most of us/them actively want Labour to oust the Tories. An SNP/Labour alliance is pretty much the dream for many Scots, given that we voted NO in 2014 and ultimately a lot of resentment up here is aimed at the Tories. As soon as Labour started going Tory-lite and taking what votes they had up here for granted they got wiped out completely in Scotland.
Quite a few times the SNP have tried to say to Labour vote in unison on issues we agree on to challenge the Tories. Then Corbyn, as usual can't even get a majority of his party agreeing. The guy is a useless leader, and I say that as someone who likes a good amount of his beliefs.
JonathanEx
Member
Unfortunately, yes, I'm wondering if he'll even stand down after a crushing general election defeat - he's not standing down after losing a couple of by-elections.
Roberto Larcos
Member
I don't think he'd stand down - but I can see him being challenged again - by someone more solid than Owen Smith. Smith was a Heseltine, showing dear leader is fallible. Corbyn's base is rapidly shrinking, what with hard Brexit and general incompetency, he doesn't have the same levels of support from members or even the unions as he did before.
He won't ever stand down until his supporters desert him. Right now he has accomplished his life's goal - taking labour to the hard left, to show that they can win. For him and John McDonnell to walk away now would be to throw everything they have literally lived for.
PJV3
Member
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I think that's actually good for Labour, because it means UKIP might not fade as much as they have in most other areas by current polling. Labour only ever took Stoke last time around because the Conservatives and UKIP split their vote more or less dead evenly, and if it had been a straight Labour vs. rightist candidate, the seat wouldn't have been held. Nuttall is in that sweet zone of being well-known enough to keep UKIP up but too shit to actually win.
Are there any good breakdowns of which parties ukip took votes from by seat?
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I don't know of any compilations, you'd need some quite in-depth polling to have any definite idea. Looking at Stoke 2010 ->2015, the party movements were something like:
BNP collapsed, all their vote went to UKIP. Lib Dems collapsed, their vote went... all over the place, partly protest voters who moved on to UKIP (this is actually not particularly uncommon), partly "Liberals" who went to the Conservatives, partly "Social Democrats" who went to Labour. Conservatives lost some vote to UKIP but picked some up from the Lib Dems. Labour didn't change at all; they're already down to the core vote in Stoke and can't fall any further. I don't think they actually lost any votes in Stoke to UKIP (or very few) in 2010 -> 2015 because all the small c-conservative former Labour voters had left many elections ago; there's none left. If they drop again, it will be a titantic SNP-style shift, not drib-drabs.
Best case scenario for Labour is something like UKIP holding approximately steady or at least not falling too badly, combined with the Labour core vote not seeing a total collapse. At least for the first part, Paul Nuttall is a gift, as I don't think UKIP can win this seat. Gill Troughton is also a reasonably good candidate - super-local, good links with the local unions, supported Smith but at the same time hasn't really been Corbyn-hostile so a neutral option. I don't think there's much more Labour can really hope for, to be honest. If they lose Stoke, they're in trouble at a really fundamental level.
Owen Hones article in the guardian today about how a new American left will rise after the destruction of Clinton centralism is one of the dumbest things I've forced myself to read in a while. Firstly she ran on the most left wing platform the democrats had ever put forward, and secondly you would think after his experiences in the UK he would be less obsessed with purity.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Wasn't thinking this morning - Troughton is Copeland's candidate, Stoke is undecided as of yet.
WhateverItTakes
Banned
Always such a cop out. I get the history and important ties between our countries but US as it is right now should really be kept at arm's length, in the interests of pride and not getting sucked down the populist rhetoric that won a douche their presidential election.
Of course with Brexit apparently we have to snuggle up to them. I can only hope May isn't completely spineless and doesn't go along with every abhorrent thing Trump suggests.
Gurgelhals
Member
Oh, she will for sure. The messy political situation in the UK combined with that weird and borderline delusional infatuation that its leaders have for that supposed "special relationship" with the US makes Theresa May and her three Brexiteer-nitwits some of the easiest marks for Trump on the entire international stage.
This is going to be like Blair and Bush, only much, much worse.
WhateverItTakes
Banned
*Sigh*
All I want is for the scene in Love Actually to happen in my lifetime. Is that too much to ask?
In true monkey's paw fashion I expect this to happen now but with us playing the roll of dickhead
JonnyDBrit
Member
It's unfortunately quite easy to spin as well. Oh, look at the rest of the world, struggling to get along with Donald Trump. Yet look at us, we get along just fine, yes we do, oh and by the way we now recognise Crimea as part of Russia.
Apparently the Tories are going to lie down in Stoke to help Paul Nutter get in to parliament. Clearly they'd rather lose a seat to the Far right than have labour hold the seat.
http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_588108f5e4b0b8867de7372b
http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_588108f5e4b0b8867de7372b
It's not the tories job to help labour win seats. As much as I loathe UKIP and Paul Nuttall, the tories strategy makes sense. They would literally be pissing away money for no gain and national embarrassment if they went all in on Stoke.
Expecting the Tory party to campaign heavily in order to split the vote and help labour hold the seat is a bit much. Plus. Let's be honest - as someone who believes in proportional representation, the fact UKIP got 6 million votes and one MP sticks in the throat. Like it or not, they should be better represented in parliament - if only to show up how appallingly stupid, ignorant and racist they are.
FlammableD
Banned
I can't get too mad about it. In a world where America has just been handed over to their kind, giving them a platform clearly doesn't work.
PJV3
Member
They only have so much money to spend. If I were at Tory party headquarters right now, I'd be urging exactly the same. It's a sound electoral strategy - they have nothing to win and everything to lose by playing hard in Stoke.
Plus, it helps them get another UKIP MP in parliament. They are now the party of hard Brexit. UKIP winning a seat probably gives them an increased majority, plus it keeps the press narrative of 'the county has spoken, Brexit it is!'.
I'm not saying it isn't strategically sound. I'm saying it's morally wrong
PJV3
Member
I will just hope labour field a pro Brexit candidate and enough ex labour and decent tories don't elect the UKIP cunt.
The Tories are the government, they should be in the election and try to win the seat.
Roberto Larcos
Member
Not a well-thought out strategy, I think.
Paul Nuttall is a nutter. Pro-death penalty, anti-abortion. If he gets elected, whenever he opens his mouth (and he'll be on TV even more), that will be projected onto the Tories - and the Lib Dems will really hammer home at this point. The Tories can pretend they're not effectively a UKIP government right now, but that plausible deniability ends with a move like this. UKIP have some popular support, but it's a dirty word amongst many, particularly the educated middle classes where Tories have traditionally done well. Run a candidate, even if it means Labour holding the seat. It won't be the start of a comeback for them - if anything it gives Corbyn more time, which is what the Tories should be going for.
Paul Nuttall is a nutter. Pro-death penalty, anti-abortion. If he gets elected, whenever he opens his mouth (and he'll be on TV even more), that will be projected onto the Tories - and the Lib Dems will really hammer home at this point. The Tories can pretend they're not effectively a UKIP government right now, but that plausible deniability ends with a move like this. UKIP have some popular support, but it's a dirty word amongst many, particularly the educated middle classes where Tories have traditionally done well. Run a candidate, even if it means Labour holding the seat. It won't be the start of a comeback for them - if anything it gives Corbyn more time, which is what the Tories should be going for.
Makes perfect sense for the Tories to do that. Losing Stoke means that a lot of Northern Labour seats are under threat, and they'd have to pour resources into fighting to keep those, rather than fighting to win back the seats needed to form a government.
PJV3
Member
What are labour going to win, the party is perfect for the tories. They are unelectable and support the government position on Brexit.
What risk the stability and open the UKIP option?
UKIP are unelectable and support the government's position on Brexit. If they win Stoke then, as I said, it creates the narrative that Northern Labour seats are under threat as the old core Labour vote switches to UKIP. That's a win for the Tories.
Roberto Larcos
Member
Create the narrative that Tories = UKIP, and put other seats under pressure. See Witney as a prime example of that type of location.
PJV3
Member
Well I can only hope it becomes a warning that the country is swinging far too much to the right, the government is getting its way on brexit and is almost certain to win in 2020, I'd rather they acted like a government and aimed for some stability for people and not putting the cat amongst the pigeons.
I'm not against ukip having seats, I support voting reform, I'm against the government playing that kind of game in this political climate, with so much at stake.
[/flippant ] So, am I reading this right? May's government is happy to allow non-EU immigration as long as it meets certain skin color criteria? [/flippant]
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/23/theresa-may-donald-trump-us-uk-immigration
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/23/theresa-may-donald-trump-us-uk-immigration
To be fair, it's not like Polish people aren't white. It's xenophobia for a lot of people, and Americans don't raise the same triggers because they speak the same language, have similar traditions etc.
Plus, doesn't matter how open the labour market and immigration is - your never going to get American fruit pickers coming to Kent, or American plumbers. Which seems to be a big issue for UKIP supporters.
Xenophobia and racism go hand in hand.
CyclopsRock
Member
Despite it all...
https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/01/icmguardian-poll-something-interesting-within.html/
"From some time in April (and more broadly the period between the budget and the EU referendum) the Labour share has fallen by 6 points. On average since 1979, oppositions have usually gained about a point over the same period. This is in fact the 11th poll this parliament thats had the opposition closer to third place than first."
https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/01/icmguardian-poll-something-interesting-within.html/
"From some time in April (and more broadly the period between the budget and the EU referendum) the Labour share has fallen by 6 points. On average since 1979, oppositions have usually gained about a point over the same period. This is in fact the 11th poll this parliament thats had the opposition closer to third place than first."
Audioboxer
Member
Scottish Tories starting BetterTogether 2.0 nice and early
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