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[War Peaceman]

Come on of course they would have had a sizeable majority.

 

[CyclopsRock]

I think that's easy to say *after* he ripped up Clause 4 on stage, renamed the party and basically said "Any similarity between this party and the old party is purely coincidental." From that point, it's hard to *then* make the argument that you're driven by the desire to lower inequality. They didn't *do* anything special with the NHS or schools (until academies much later), they mostly just gave them a fucking ton of money (which was effective and necessary for bringing about improvement) which weren't arguments that needed winning.

 

[Jezbollah]

There are some interesting goings on happening in Stop The War right now, as highlighted by this blog. An interesting read.

 

[Uzzy]

Cameron's being attacked from the left and right over his EU negotations. The Sun's calling him gutless, the Mail's asking him to show some steel, while the Telegraph and Boris are saying we should get a Danish style opt-out from the EU's freedom of movement rules. The Guardian, on the other hand, is asking if there's an ulterior motive behind the terrible negotiation Cameron's been leading.

Delightful stuff really. Cameron's going to have a hell of a time leading his party when the negotations finish.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Cameron's being attacked from the left and right over his EU negotations. The Sun's calling him gutless, the Mail's asking him to show some steel, while the Telegraph and Boris are saying we should get a Danish style opt-out from the EU's freedom of movement rules. The Guardian, on the other hand, is asking if there's an ulterior motive behind the terrible negotiation Cameron's been leading.

Delightful stuff really. Cameron's going to have a hell of a time leading his party when the negotations finish.

Nah, I think Cameron genuinely wants us to stay in the EU. His cack-handed negotiations are probably just incompetence, but to be fair I don't think there's much he can do here.

 

[Jezbollah]

The EU thing is an absolute fucking mess at the moment, no doubt. It's almost as if their strategy is 1) cock things up, 2) do nothing for ages, 3) panic, 4) fix it just in time (and likely bodge it).

To be honest I don't think Cameron will need to worry about leading his party after, I think he's resigning regardless around 2017.

 

[CyclopsRock]

The EU thing is an absolute fucking mess at the moment, no doubt. It's almost as if their strategy is 1) cock things up, 2) do nothing for ages, 3) panic, 4) fix it just in time (and likely bodge it).

To be honest I don't think Cameron will need to worry about leading his party after, I think he's resigning regardless around 2017.

Aaahh, the ol' Scottish Referendum strategy!

I think you're right though. If we can stay in positive growth and he keeps us in the EU, I think he'll basically have cemented his legacy. He can leave at that point with his head held largely high, knowing that he's kept the union together, presided over an economy with constantly increasing employment, kept us in the EU, not succumbed to the threat of UKIP and basically solidified "moderate conservatism" as the parties doctrine. It's going to take something akin to a Corbyn-like insurrection for the Tories to go back to a David Davis, Michael Howard style of conservatism. What's there left for him to do?

 

[War Peaceman]

Aaahh, the ol' Scottish Referendum strategy!

I think you're right though. If we can stay in positive growth and he keeps us in the EU, I think he'll basically have cemented his legacy. He can leave at that point with his head held largely high, knowing that he's kept the union together, presided over an economy with constantly increasing employment, kept us in the EU, not succumbed to the threat of UKIP and basically solidified "moderate conservatism" as the parties doctrine. It's going to take something akin to a Corbyn-like insurrection for the Tories to go back to a David Davis, Michael Howard style of conservatism. What's there left for him to do?

EU referendum plus successor are the final two ticks on the checklist.

 

[fizzelopeguss]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/artic...et-a-worse-start-in-life-says-equality-report

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukn...men-most-derided-group-in-britain-yougov.html

 

[Coriolanus]

What's the difference between the white man in his 20's and the equivalent white australian?

Gods that sounds like such an obvious joke setup.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Are taking drugs and having many sexual encounters considered to be bad things?!

 

[Uzzy]

Are taking drugs and having many sexual encounters considered to be bad things?!

Of course it is. They put you in the House of Lords for that.

 

[JonathanEx]

Of course it is. They put you in the House of Lords for that.

Well stick a cape on me and call me Lord

 

[Jezbollah]

Looks like it's kicking off between Douglas Carswell and Nigel Farage.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/dec/18/douglas-carswell-ukip-mp-calls-for-nigel-farage-quit

 

[Mr. Sam]

When every last UKIP Member of Parliament is asking the leader to step down, how can he withstand such pressure?

 

[CyclopsRock]

Heehee, Georgie Boy is in the "Special Thanks" of the Star Wars credits. Apparantly he's a massive Star Wars geek, too.

 

[JonathanEx]

Heehee, Georgie Boy is in the "Special Thanks" of the Star Wars credits. Apparantly he's a massive Star Wars geek, too.

Did read that he got boos at the premiere, whereas Cameron got sort of muted clapping.

Which does have an interesting point - although Osbourne is well positioned within the party to be next leader, does he have too much baggage with the general public?

 

[Jezbollah]

Did read that he got boos at the premiere, whereas Cameron got sort of muted clapping.

Which does have an interesting point - although Osbourne is well positioned within the party to be next leader, does he have too much baggage with the general public?

I would speculate that the demographic that was standing outside at a premier might not be the kind of demographic that represents Osbournes (or the Tories in general) core vote.

 

[JonathanEx]

I would speculate that the demographic that was standing outside at a premier might not be the kind of demographic that represents Osbournes (or the Tories in general) core vote.

Absolutely a fair point - but I do wonder if although we all know it's fake, Dave's smoothness will have a noticeable more appeal than Osbourne's slimyness. Despite The Sun's attempts to portray him as a god or whatever.

 

[Mr. Sam]

I'm saying this in the least partisan way I possibly can: George Osbourne behaves as if he doesn't have a soul. I know, nobody has a soul, but if we did, George Osbourne wouldn't have one. Automatic doors wouldn't open for him, his breath wouldn't fog up windows - the whole deal. He has the eyes of a great white shark and all the likeability.

 

[Coriolanus]

He has the eyes of a great white shark and all the likeability.

Are you familiar with a phenomenon called tsundere sharks?

Anything can be made endearing, is what i'm saying.

Spoiler

except miliband. no saving that one.

 

[CyclopsRock]

But like, he's the Chancellor and they just won an election. The people that voted Tory didn't do so *in spite* of his actions on the economy. I'd posit that very few of the people booing him at the premiere (or the Olympics) voted for Dave either. Yet they won.

 

[Mr. Sam]

Not to beat a dead horse, because I'd very much like it to be an alive horse, but we do have an electoral system in which a 36.9% vote share is enough to win a general election - it doesn't mean that the winning party, or any of their leading personalities, are overwhelming popular. As for whether he'd be popular enough to win an election, I refer you back to the start of this paragraph.

 

[Par Score]

Also, this isn't some recent or short lived phenomena, Osborne was the only one getting booed back at the 2012 Olympics too.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Not to beat a dead horse, because I'd very much like it to be an alive horse, but we do have an electoral system in which a 36.9% vote share is enough to win a general election - it doesn't mean that the winning party, or any of their leading personalities, are overwhelming popular. As for whether he'd be popular enough to win an election, I refer you back to the start of this paragraph.

Yeah but that's all he's gonna need in 2020, too. I mean I'm not saying he would be a popular leader, I just think the vocal haters (understandable given he's the primary architect of the cuts) weren't voting Tory anyway.

 

[RobotNinjaHornets]

I'm saying this in the least partisan way I possibly can: George Osbourne behaves as if he doesn't have a soul. I know, nobody has a soul, but if we did, George Osbourne wouldn't have one. Automatic doors wouldn't open for him, his breath wouldn't fog up windows - the whole deal. He has the eyes of a great white shark and all the likeability.

 

[Uzzy]

So Steve Baker MP, the co-chair of Conservatives for Britain, has called the negotiations over the EU a farce. Apparently he's figured out that even if Cameron got the four year ban on EU migrants getting in work benefits, they'd still be better off coming here to the UK to work because of the minimum wage increase.

Vote Leave, an umbrella organisation for Out campaigners, has compiled data which it says shows that even if Cameron were to achieve the four-year ban against all the odds, the effect would be, at best, minimal on limiting immigration. And if other EU leaders reject the plan, and fail to come up with an alternative, their figures suggest the “national living wage” would mean the UK would become far more attractive to workers from poorer EU countries, particularly those in eastern Europe.

According to its calculations a single Bulgarian worker is 377% better off working the same number of hours in the UK than at home. In 2020, when the living wage has been introduced in full, Vote Leave says the Bulgarian worker would be 353% better off even if they cannot claim in-work benefits, compared to 254% better off had the living wage not been introduced. Without the benefit reforms, the living wage will mean that a single Bulgarian worker is 483% better off, it says.

Hard to achieve and won't do anything, yet this demand seems like the cornerstone of Cameron's negotiations. This really surprises me.

 

[Jezbollah]

I do wonder if Cameron is going to go in there all guns blazing with a "no lose" attitude - if he gets what he wants by winging it, he'll call it a victory and campaign a vote to stay in. If he gets LOL'd at, he'll probably say "these are the people we're dealing with" and decide to move for No.

In other news, Lord Janner died. I have mixed feelings about this...

 

[QuicheFontaine]

So Steve Baker MP, the co-chair of Conservatives for Britain, has called the negotiations over the EU a farce. Apparently he's figured out that even if Cameron got the four year ban on EU migrants getting in work benefits, they'd still be better off coming here to the UK to work because of the minimum wage increase.

Hard to achieve and won't do anything, yet this demand seems like the cornerstone of Cameron's negotiations. This really surprises me.

I really don't get. I've been listening to this being negotiated but all I can think of is who cares? Is there really a single leave voter that this would placate? "Oh he managed to get them to agree to allow us to restrict in-work benefits for migrants for four years - I'll change my vote to remain". I just can't see it.

 

[Fernando Fernandez]

So Steve Baker MP, the co-chair of Conservatives for Britain, has called the negotiations over the EU a farce. Apparently he's figured out that even if Cameron got the four year ban on EU migrants getting in work benefits, they'd still be better off coming here to the UK to work because of the minimum wage increase.



Hard to achieve and won't do anything, yet this demand seems like the cornerstone of Cameron's negotiations. This really surprises me.

Wow, that was the only "real" item that he was negotiating. What a shambles

 

[Moosichu]

Really interesting interview with Corbyn about his first 100 Days:

http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/8845882

 

[Maledict]

Wow, that was the only "real" item that he was negotiating. What a shambles

It's only a farce if you think that the benefits system is what brings people to Britain.

It isn't. It never has been for the majority of immigrants. They come to the UK for work and the economic prospects. That's why the higher than anticipated levels of immigration allowed Osborne to reverse a number of his plans - immigrants don't drain from the public coffers, overall they add to them.

The "main principle" of our EU negotiation stance is a farce - it has been from the day it was outlined. It caters to the Daily Mail and the Sun, and the uninformed voter who probably won't change their opinion no matter what. But unfortunately Cameron has shown time and time again the concept being a statesman is far out of his reach.

 

[RedShift]

Wow, that was the only "real" item that he was negotiating. What a shambles

This is only bad if you're looking at it from a perspective of wanting less immigrants to come to the UK rather than wanting less immigrants on benefits though isn't it?

 

[Moosichu]

This is only bad if you're looking at it from a perspective of wanting less immigrants to come to the UK rather than wanting less immigrants on benefits though isn't it?

But immigrants still contribute far more to the economy than they take away. So what does the benefits argument come down to? It's incredibly backwards thinking because it works both ways. I like freedom of movement and the fact I could work anywhere in the EU with little hassle.

 

[Fernando Fernandez]

This is only bad if you're looking at it from a perspective of wanting less immigrants to come to the UK rather than wanting less immigrants on benefits though isn't it?

I just meant there was 4 points that Dave was asking for and 3 of those points weren't anything too different from what we already have. It was only that point above that seemed to be asking for anything different. This whole going to the EU and trying to "re-negotiate" looks a waste of everyone's time.

 

[kitch9]

But immigrants still contribute far more to the economy than they take away. So what does the benefits argument come down to? It's incredibly backwards thinking because it works both ways. I like freedom of movement and the fact I could work anywhere in the EU with little hassle.

The problem with the immigration argument is that it's hard not to get un biased opinion either way and you end up with hyperbole.

"Contribute far more than they take away," is an example of said hyperbole.

The full social and economic cost of mass uncontrolled immigration is no where near fully costed.

 

[phisheep]

The problem with the immigration argument is that it's hard not to get un biased opinion either way and you end up with hyperbole.

"Contribute far more than they take away," is an example of said hyperbole.

The full social and economic cost of mass uncontrolled immigration is no where near fully costed.

Indeed.

The marginal impact of an additional immigrant is positive.

The total impact of immigration since about 1990 is somewhere upwards of sixteen Milton Keyneses (or one Birmingham and one Manchester). And it's not easy to argue as to whether that's a good thing or a bad thing.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Indeed.

The marginal impact of an additional immigrant is positive.

The total impact of immigration since about 1990 is somewhere upwards of sixteen Milton Keyneses (or one Birmingham and one Manchester). And it's not easy to argue as to whether that's a good thing or a bad thing.

One Milton Keynes is more than enough!

 

[Moosichu]

The problem with the immigration argument is that it's hard not to get un biased opinion either way and you end up with hyperbole.

"Contribute far more than they take away," is an example of said hyperbole.

The full social and economic cost of mass uncontrolled immigration is no where near fully costed.

Yeah. It's definitely a debate where a lot of nuance and tact is required. Sadly that means the opposite happens.

 

[Fernando Fernandez]

The Sun front page is something else. Forced to issue an apology for horrendous lies and they squeeze thst through.

 

[kitch9]

New bank of England report out.

Apparently mass immigration and over supply of low skilled workers does suppress wages on those who can least afford it.

I am shocked.... Amazed even. Ever since I was taught the laws of supply and demand as the first thing of economics at school and couldn't see that coming.

Oh wait, I could and I've been banging on about this very thing for years.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Yeah, I think it's fairly hard to argue that the nearly limitless supply of low-paid labour and low wage growth aren't related.

 

[Deltoid]

i dunno doesn't that just provide an incentive to get skills

i really don't want to be one of those guys who think the poor are lazy, but it seems so easy these days to get in demand skills

 

[kitch9]

i dunno doesn't that just provide an incentive to get skills

i really don't want to be one of those guys who think the poor are lazy, but it seems so easy these days to get in demand skills

One of the things that isn't measured very well is the effect it had on skilled self employed tradesmen.

The price to hang a door on a building site used to be about 40-50 quid before the aggressively under cutting eastern Europeans turned up.

It's now about £10-15... Anyone who's hung a door will tell you that's insane, especially if the opening ain't square, which there's more chance of it not being now the brickies are getting less than half their rate.

Electrical first fixes getting done (badly) for 150 quid. Joke.

The price suppressing effects on the skilled trades was massive.

These guys are self employed sub contractors so the minimum wage thing does not apply.. Some will love to pretend raising minimum wage will solve all the problems though. Some of them endured years on apprentice wages only for others from abroad to turn up with dodgy certifications that can't really be verified or challenged and start under cutting through the floor.

Then you get some trying to say that never happened and it's good for everyone.

 

[Moosichu]

One of the things that isn't measured very well is the effect it had on skilled self employed tradesmen.

The price to hang a door on a building site used to be about 40-50 quid before the aggressively under cutting eastern Europeans turned up.

It's now about £10-15... Anyone who's hung a door will tell you that's insane, especially if the opening ain't square, which there's more chance of it not being now the brickies are getting less than half their rate.

Electrical first fixes getting done (badly) for 150 quid. Joke.

The price suppressing effects on the skilled trades was massive.

These guys are self employed sub contractors so the minimum wage thing does not apply.. Some will love to pretend raising minimum wage will solve all the problems though. Some of them endured years on apprentice wages only for others from abroad to turn up with dodgy certifications that can't really be verified or challenged and start under cutting through the floor.

Then you get some trying to say that never happened and it's good for everyone.

Yeah, the undercutting of wages really needs to be tackled.

 

[2700]

New bank of England report out.

Apparently mass immigration and over supply of low skilled workers does suppress wages on those who can least afford it.

I am shocked.... Amazed even. Ever since I was taught the laws of supply and demand as the first thing of economics at school and couldn't see that coming.

Oh wait, I could and I've been banging on about this very thing for years.

Here is the report if anyone else wants to read it.

 

[kmag]

What's that Georgie missing another target and the OBR's forecasts being way out as usual?

George Osborne’s plan to repair Britain’s public finances has received a fresh setback from official figures showing that the budget deficit in November was 10% higher than in the same month in 2014.

The Office for National Statistics said the gap between spending and revenues last month was £14.2bn - an increase of £1.3bn on November 2014.

Officials said that one reason for the deterioration was that last November had seen the payment of fines by financial institutions totalling £1.1bn, which had not been repeated in November 2015.

Even so, the figures came as an unwelcome shock to the City, which had been forecasting a drop in net borrowing – the government’s preferred measure of the deficit – to £11.8bn.


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Shares fell after the ONS released the data amid fears that the chancellor would now struggle to meet his deficit reduction targets for 2015-16 and to move the public finances into surplus by the end of the parliament.

Borrowing during the first eight months of 2015-16 has been £66.9bn, only £2bn short of the total expected by the Office for Budget Responsibility for the whole of the financial year.

Analysts said it would require a big improvement in the remaining four months of the year to hit the OBR forecast. In the same months of 2014-15, the government borrowed £16bn.

“There was no festive cheer for the chancellor in November’s UK public finances figures,” said Paul Hollingsworth of Capital Economics. “Indeed, it now looks almost impossible for Mr Osborne to meet the OBR’s forecast for the fiscal year as a whole.”

Hollingsworth added that if the trend for the first eight months of the year continued, borrowing would total around £81bn for 2015-16. “The upshot is that, barring a Christmas miracle, the chancellor looks extremely unlikely to meet his borrowing forecasts this year.”

Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics said: “The public finances still are not improving as quickly as the chancellor anticipates, raising the prospect that he will have to announce additional austerity measures to achieve his goal of budget surplus by the end of this parliament.”

 

[phisheep]

i dunno doesn't that just provide an incentive to get skills

i really don't want to be one of those guys who think the poor are lazy, but it seems so easy these days to get in demand skills

It does?

Not that easy if you are working all hours at min wage or less and have no savings and no credit. Not all that easy anyway to get skills and experience that are in demand locally if you are somewhere like, say, Merthyr Tydfil.

 

[CyclopsRock]

It does?

Not that easy if you are working all hours at min wage or less and have no savings and no credit. Not all that easy anyway to get skills and experience that are in demand locally if you are somewhere like, say, Merthyr Tydfil.

I dunno, I reckon you could learn to box whilst drunk pretty well even in minimum wage.

I guess that person meant that access to university has never been easier, and never had less up front costs than it does now.

 

[kmag]

I dunno, I reckon you could learn to box whilst drunk pretty well even in minimum wage.

I guess that person meant that access to university has never been easier, and never had less up front costs than it does now.

Between 62 and 89 you didn't pay a penny both fees and maintenance was covered by grants. Between 89 and 98 the cost was covered by grants for most universities with a loan of up to £1400 (off the top of my head) a year for maintenance.