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[devilhawk]

Just as we all know deep down that English majors are less important than Biochemistry majors, even if we don't admit it, we know that Joe Scarborough isn't the same as Nate Silver and thus we don't hold Scaroborough to the sort of standards we hold a statistician to.

Yes! I am important.

 

[Omegasquash]

I agree, I think this will happen if Nate is wrong.

A random pundit who makes confident claims is not held to this standard, obviously. They make wrong predictions all the time -- and not even probabilistic ones, like Silver makes, but confident ones without probabilistic language -- and nothing happens to them. Often, their ratings go up.

But science-y math-y people are simply held to a different standard. Implicitly, we know that they have to follow different rules than typical bloviators and pundits who can say anything they want with impunity. These rules are necessary because math-y science-y types actually claim to be able to predict the future in a serious way, and as such they are held to much tighter standards. We may not openly admit that Joe Scarborough or Ed Sullivan are entertainers, we may not even consciously admit it, but the way in which we immediately discard their (frequently wrong) predictions suggests that we know it, deep down.

Just as we all know deep down that English majors are less important than Biochemistry majors, even if we don't admit it, we know that Joe Scarborough isn't the same as Nate Silver and thus we don't hold Scaroborough to the sort of standards we hold a statistician to.

Bububububu....I can quote things at appropriate times in a witty way!

 

[speedline]

This isn't an bad prediction imo. I would say NH goes to Obama, but we all know it boils down to how Ohio swings.

 

[Jason's Ultimatum]

This isn't an bad prediction imo. I would say NH goes to Obama, but we all know it boils down to how Ohio swings.

CO should be blue, too.

It just comes down to FL and OH, and for sure Obama will win OH.

 

[airmangataosenai]

To be fair, Rove's map is a lot less batshit insane than most conservative "predictions" have been. Very generous to Mitt, obviously, but still within the realm of vague plausibility.

He's trying to save face after his insane map that had Mitt winning Minnesota a week or so ago.

 

[AniHawk]

CO should be blue, too.

It just comes down to FL and OH, and for sure Obama will win OH.

no one considers virginia.

 

[Stumpokapow]

The neat thing about this prediction is that the person he wants to win, wins.

 

[krypt0nian]

CO should be blue, too.

It just comes down to FL and OH, and for sure Obama will win OH.

FL will swing blue too. That map is pass the dutchie on the left hand side.

 

[RumblingRosco]

Bububububu....I can quote things at appropriate times in a witty way!

I could use someone like you to edit the grammar in my next publication; I've got one in progress for Biotechnology Advances. I won't pay you, but we can call it an internship.

Just joshin'. English is actually my second love.

 

[BobTheFork]

Congrats on being duped then.

Several other flags include the location of the polling place, no other reports or videos, no name of the person he says he talked to that said its fine, etc.

You would think there would be a huge stink about this blow up within minutes - instead we get a poorly hoaxed video.

Yeah not buying it along with all those bigfoot videos.

I understand the hate for Romney here, while deserved, I can't blindly believe every video I watch on the internet.

Too many holes in the entire story. I'd bank on Ancient Aliens being true despite the flat-out lies to wrench those theories loosely in place before I believe this whole scenario.

A random internet video is as credible as you are *shrugs*
I'm not saying it's massive conspiracy, and guy even said the other people didn't have the same problem but I don't it's a clever constructed hoax video, probably just a crappy machine.

 

[speedline]

no one considers virginia.

True, Virginia is also a true toss up at this point.

 

[ElectricBlue187]

The neat thing about this prediction is that the person he wants to win, wins.

that's awful convenient

 

[Flo_Evans]

lol.

Here is my prediction. Only doubtful state is Florida, going to be down to how much bullshit they pull there.

 

[Dash27]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/06/dan-rather-mitt-romney-election_n_2082170.html

Dan Rather says on MSNBC: "something in my gut tells me that it’s going to be a good day for Romney"

Queue mass hysteria

 

[CharlieDigital]

I just got an automated call letting me know that "Attention Houston Republican voters, candidate XYZ is openly supporting Barrack Obama..."

I'm in New Jersey.

 

[shadyspace]

I agree, I think this will happen if Nate is wrong.

A random Newspaper or TV pundit who makes confident claims is not held to this standard, obviously. They make wrong predictions all the time -- and not even probabilistic ones, like Silver makes, but confident ones without probabilistic language -- and nothing happens to them. Often, their ratings or readership go up. By contrast, if Nate Silver makes one wrong prediction, he's toast.

Science-y/math-y people are simply held to a different standard. Implicitly, we know that they have to follow different rules than typical bloviators and pundits who can say anything they want with impunity. These additional rules are necessary because math-y science-y types actually are able to predict the future in a serious way, and as such they are held to much tighter standards. We may not openly admit that Joe Scarborough or Ed Sullivan are entertainers, we may not even consciously admit it, but the way in which we immediately discard their (frequently wrong) predictions suggests that we know it, deep down.

Just as we all know deep down that English majors are less important than Biochemistry majors, even if we don't admit it, we know that Joe Scarborough isn't the same as Nate Silver and thus we don't hold Scaroborough to the sort of standards we hold a statistician to.

I didn't switch majors for this reason but I do like the perk of no longer feeling like everyone is laughing at me behind my back.

 

[speedline]

that's awful convenient

Ooo, I wonder what Axlerods map looks like.

 

[Eric WK]

FL will swing blue too. That map is pass the dutchie on the left hand side.

At this point I would consider calling FL anything other than a 50-50 tossup is a fairly bold prediction.

Ooo, I wonder what Axlerods map looks like.

The difference is that Axelrod's doesn't throw the polling trends in battleground states under the bus.

 

[Al-ibn Kermit]

Hey I voted early on Sunday but I forgot to get an "I Voted" sticker. Do you think they'll give me one if I just show up to the closest polling location?

 

[D4Danger]

A random internet video is as credible as you are *shrugs*
I'm not saying it's massive conspiracy, and guy even said the other people didn't have the same problem but I don't it's a clever constructed hoax video, probably just a crappy machine.

Probably a big greasy fingerprint over the Romney button. (cheap) touchscreens suck.

 

[diffusionx]

He hasn't said it's statistically impossible.

Irrelevant, the guy is right, if Romney wins the election then Nate Silver's career in political stat analysis is over. He won't be taken seriously anymore. Nate Silver knows it too, I am sure of that. If he wants to continue as a partisan hack like Rove I am sure he could, but I doubt Silver has any desire to do that.

You gotta understand the types of people we are dealing with. They do not understand statistics or math and have no interests in probabilities. Joe Scarborough was out there callign him out as a fool and an ideologue and then he said his gut tells him that Romney wins or Obama wins. Thing is, Joe Scarborough is a respected member of the community, it doesn't matter how wrong he is.

 

[RustyNails]

no one considers virginia.

It's hilarious people treating VA as probably reddish like NC.

 

[krypt0nian]

At this point I would consider calling FL anything other than a 50-50 tossup is a fairly bold prediction.

I'm not betting my house on it, but I'm by no means the only one thinking it.

 

[Wolfgunblood Garopa]

This isn't an bad prediction imo. I would say NH goes to Obama, but we all know it boils down to how Ohio swings.

Terrible opinion.

OH, but not MI, WI or PA? IA?

Not even close.

 

[Brinbe]

lol.

Here is my prediction. Only doubtful state is Florida, going to be down to how much bullshit they pull there.

I had 347, because why not be optimistic and hope for NC to come through, but I think your prediction is a lot more likely. Florida and Colorado will be really close and I think VA will swing blue.

 

[airmangataosenai]

For the GAF predictions, how many of us had the full 332 EV prediction? I was either the second or third to throw my hat in AFAIK.

 

[Omegasquash]

I could use someone like you to edit the grammar in my next publication; I've got one in progress for Biotechnology Advances. I won't pay you, but we can call it an internship.

Just joshin'. English is actually my second love.

Josh is my real name. Well played.

 

[ElectricBlue187]

Ooo, I wonder what Axlerods map looks like.

why would you consult reality when making predictions!? better to go with that gut feeling

 

[TheNatural]

Just voted. Feels good, even if I know Green Party is fucked, to support their cause.

 

[Patryn]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Peace_Accords#Claimed_sabotage_of_negotiations_by_Nixon_campaign
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anna_C...hat. I stand corrected on the Vietnam thing.

 

[Flying Toaster]

Probably a big greasy fingerprint over the Romney button. (cheap) touchscreens suck.

I see what you did there, dirty people vote Romney.

 

[LordCanti]

At this point I would consider calling FL anything other than a 50-50 tossup is a fairly bold prediction.

I think Florida will go red. Florida going blue and letting us all get a good nights rest would be too much to ask for.

 

[EmCeeGramr]

I like the 538 map because Florida is so white that you can squint your eyes and it's like ha ha, Florida doesn't exist anymore, yay

 

[Squirrel Killer]

It's either game over for Romney, or for Nate.

If Romney wins, the people who would declare Nate's career over would be dismissing a valuable resource. It's close enough in enough swing states that the polls he's aggregating could have a systemic bias. His model will attempt to correct for it, and it should be more accurate next time.

 

[Boogdud]

I live in Ohio, and while I was out today I noticed that the Obama/Biden sign in front of one of the two houses in the neighborhood that have them had been destroyed. Shit's getting a bit outta hand.

I live in columbus and every Romney sign in a 5 square mile radius was either torn down or (most) had been vandalized with obscenities, etc. in orange fluorescent spraypaint. People are classy all over.

 

[Rebel Leader]

I like the 538 map because Florida is so white that you can squint your eyes and it's like ha ha, Florida doesn't exist anymore, yay

stop it >_>

 

[pigeon]

For the GAF predictions, how many of us had the full 332 EV prediction? I was either the second or third to throw my hat in AFAIK.

I believe I was the first poster in PoliGAF to predict 332 during Ami's contest.

 

[D4Danger]

I see what you did there, dirty people vote Romney.

I don't have a horse in this race.

Although saying that if I could vote I'd choose B-Rock.

 

[Samyy]

lol.


Here is my prediction. Only doubtful state is Florida, going to be down to how much bullshit they pull there.

I think thats what is going to happen just without Florida

 

[Rebel Leader]

I think thats what is going to happen just without Florida

I think Florida will go red. Florida going blue and letting us all get a good nights rest would be too much to ask for.

 

[helloresolven]

Fuck Chris Matthews on MSNBC lambasting people for voting third-party.

 

[Flo_Evans]

I had 347, because why not be optimistic and hope for NC to come through, but I think your prediction is a lot more likely. Florida and Colorado will be really close and I think VA will swing blue.

I've only really been to ski resort towns in Colorado... but the place felt like a hippie commune. Blue all the way.

Florida is definitely changing demographics, just depends on if those people get out and vote (or are allowed to...)

I think Florida will go red. Florida going blue and letting us all get a good nights rest would be too much to ask for.

I am predicting a recount and more BS. Hopefully Obama will already have enough votes to not need Florida.

 

[Sirpopopop]

i just read the ballot question . . . seems like a fucking no-brainer. why would anyone vote against it?

i will definitely vote yes. i will also vote no on the judges' salary question, only because i was just hired by a judge to be her clerk and i am now loyal to her interests.

The question implies spending. There are always people who are reflexively anti-spending!

 

[TheNatural]

Fuck Chris Matthews on MSNBC lambasting people for voting third-party.

Fuck these people in general who are doing that.

 

[Game-Biz]

Fuck Chris Matthews on MSNBC lambasting people for voting third-party.

He's a gaffer confirmed.

 

[Flying Toaster]

Fuck these people in general who are doing that.

What! Everyone knows there can be only two.

 

[speedline]

Fuck Chris Matthews on MSNBC lambasting people for voting third-party.

Hope he brought his Ativan.

 

[diffusionx]

I've only really been to ski resort towns in Colorado... but the place felt like a hippie commune. Blue all the way.

Colorado is like California, it has some of the most liberal areas of the country (Boulder, etc.) and some of the most far-right areas of the country (Colorado Springs, etc.).

 

[equap]

Fuck Chris Matthews on MSNBC lambasting people for voting third-party.

but he's right though.

 

[Empty]

would love to vote for obama if i were an american. i'm way more left wing than him so don't agree with him on that much but i really love the maturity and calm he brings to a horrible and fractured political culture. he seems to be a genuinely great role model for a generation of people, even globally, and close to the ideal leader type for the executive role in your political system.

gonna follow this with interest tonight and am looking forward to hopefully seeing him give another victory speech. as well as elizabeth warren who i admire very much and nate silver getting one over on the self-serving pundits.