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United States Election: Nov 6, 2012 |OT| - Barack Obama Re-elected

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Cyan

Banned
It seems like a lot of what you and other argue here sounds like the political version of Pascal's Wager...

Nah, it's really more of a utility-based argument.

I'm going to just make up some numbers and a hypothetical voter here, for the sake of argument.

Ok, our hypothetical voter prefers Jill Stein to any other candidate. The Democrats do a lot of things that he objects to. Of course, since the Republicans do even more things that he objects to, he'd prefer a Dem than a Republican in the White House.

Let's give his options some marginal utilities, then. His vote will only make a marginal difference in the outcome if he votes D or R, so we'll assign those votes +1 and -1 utility, respectively. But wait! There's some value in the third party you support receiving votes, even if it's not as much value as winning an election. Let's assign that marginal value +.1 for Green and -.1 for Libertarian.

This is why people get angry. They look at this voter's values and say, "hey dumbass, vote Dem! The marginal utility is higher!"

But that's not the end of the equation. For this hypothetical voter, voting for somebody who does things he doesn't like feels like supporting those things. It causes him a certain amount of mental anguish. And, on the other hand, voting for somebody whose platform he fully supports feels like making a stand for his beliefs.

Add those to the equation, and suddenly the utility of voting Green is higher than the utility of voting Dem, for this particular voter.

And you know what, I completely understand that. If for you, supporting someone who you actually believe in outweighs the marginal value of your vote, I'm not going to tell you you're some kind of horrific monster. The way you feel is the way you feel.

But on the other hand, I can also understand the folks asking you to try to put aside those feelings and put more weight on the marginal value of your vote.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
I'll FedEx you some Gingerbread Oreos if I'm wrong.

This is a bad bet for you because I have a bad sweet tooth so if you welch on it...
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ReBurn

Gold Member
I'll FedEx you some Gingerbread Oreos if I'm wrong.



I feel CO is going to Romney, unfortunately. He's got momentum here somehow. A lot of it.

Back the truck up. This is a thing? If it is, why are we talking about some stupid election?
 
That seems about right. I'm a little less sure about Colorado and Virginia, but even if Romney won those two, Obama would still win with this map.

Yeah, that map minus CO & VA is my map. But I made the map like a week or two ago and I'm a bit of a pessimist. Obama will probably pick up some additional states like CO, VA, and maybe even Florida.
 

kaching

"GAF's biggest wanker"
shoplifter said:
Now tell me about how two applicants (and their pals) conspire to keep the other applicants out of three of the interviews.
Spoken like a true Republican. Those third parties just need to pull themselves up by their bootstraps and get those votes! Not like there is a major system in place designed to keep them out of the mainstream political scene. Oh wait...

Every four years the two major parties put forth ~8-10 candidates between them during the primaries. Obviously the majority don't make the cut. Should I be lamenting the unfair conditions for them too?

The run for presidency is a gauntlet that's harsh and often very unfair to ALL of the candidates, even moreso the closer you actually come to being one of the final contenders as they get put under the microscope more intensely than anyone who doesn't make it past the primaries. Every candidate and their supporters complain about those conspiring against them.

What does Jill Stein or Gary Johnson or their like really have arrayed against them compared to the millions and now billions that the two main contenders end up throwing directly at each other? Apathy? Frankly that's their problem to solve and, again, indicative of how well prepared they are to lead a large, diverse nation.
 

Zzoram

Member
If Silver ends up being wrong, his credibility will take a major, possibly unrecoverable hit.

Why doesn't that apply to this guy?

All people are horrible at predictions, nobody ever gets held accountable to wrong predictions. People have lots of incentive to make ridiculous predictions because if they're wrong, nobody will care, but if they are right, they get treated like a prophet.

All pundits don't like Nate Silver because if he keeps proving correct, his mathematical models replace the need for any pundits. They will be rendered obsolete, since their predictions are just based on hunches instead of data. We're entering a money ball era for political forecasting and the dinosaur pundits are feeling threatened because they are worthless in that future.
 

shoplifter

Member
Every four years the two major parties put forth ~8-10 candidates between them during the primaries. Obviously the majority don't make the cut. Should I be lamenting the unfair conditions for them too?

The run for presidency is a gauntlet that's harsh and often very unfair to ALL of the candidates, even moreso the closer you actually come to being one of the final contenders as they get put under the microscope more intensely than anyone who doesn't make it past the primaries. Every candidate and their supporters complain about those conspiring against them.

What does Jill Stein or Gary Johnson or their like really have arrayed against them compared to the millions and now billions that the two main contenders end up throwing directly at each other? Apathy? Frankly that's their problem to solve and, again, indicative of how well prepared they are to lead a large, diverse nation.

I'm going to assume that you understand how the Presidential Debate system actually works.
 

Rentahamster

Rodent Whores
So what you're saying is:

Output -- Both candidates are exactly the same.

Nope. Like in that other thread (I forget which one specifically, there are many that discussed third parties), I explained to MThanded how some issues are more important to some people than others; perhaps to the point of breaking a threshold of irredeemability, or a firing offense, if you will.

Of course there are differences, if your pet issues take precedence over those differences, then there you have it.

If one thinks that the military-industrial complex, the prison-industrial complex, and corporate financing are at the root of many of the worst problems in America, then there isn't that much to differentiate the parties since they both have done their best to benefit from them.

Of course they are not the same in every way, but if what you care about consists of mainly the issues that you care about, then they are.

It's just interesting to see the rationalizing done once "one of our own" is in power. Given that the anti-war movement is a shadow of what it used to be, it can be argued that the movement was more anti-Republican than it was anti-war, and that the answer to the great moral dilemma of our time as many might have put it during the Bush years, is merely a matter of who's in office at the time.

Of the many prominent pundits, Greenwald is one of the only ones who's been consistent on this.
 
Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump

Save Medicare. Vote for @MittRomney. He will repeal Obamacare on day one.
Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump

My radio interview with @GovMikeHuckabee where I discuss Obama hiding from my $5M charitable offer, Benghazi & Sandy http://bit.ly/XgAeHV
American Elephant ‏@AmericnElephant

Libs on Facebook are being extremely defensive today. I think they smell #DOOM! Their tears are delicious.
Doc Jerry K ‏@Jerry_Komar

Like nitwit Harry Reid, I heard from good sources that Obama was passing out a lot of Kool Aid last week. #tcot
The Daily Caller ‏@DailyCaller

#OPINION: In Georgetown, Democratic turnout and passion well below 2008 levels - http://bit.ly/SWBPxu
Greg Howard ‏@GregWHoward

I pissed off the Dems today. I brought 3 carloads of seniors voting to save their Medicare from #Obama to the polls. #tcot #p2 #ocra
Doc Jerry K ‏@Jerry_Komar

#ObamaLegacy: not only could Obama not stop the oceans rising, he couldn't even get help to Americans 8 days after #Sandy.
Ξ BLACK REPUBLICAN Ξ ‏@blackrepublican

Uninstalling Obama......... █████████████▒▒▒ 99% complete. TODAY #voteGOP2012 Follow @VernonBParker
Dennis Miller Show ‏@DennisDMZ

Russian sub spotted 200 miles off East Coast, prompting Obama to say "maybe we should keep that Navy thing around for a little while longer"
Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump

Very dangerous pattern developing across country by Obama supporters. Detroit poll watcher was threatened with gun http://bit.ly/YSzE1o
Doc Jerry K ‏@Jerry_Komar

While Obama plays basketball today, Romeny and Ryan continue to work--that means they will work 4 us too. #tcot

https://twitter.com/RepublicanTears/feed

also some lunatic claiming that every german is complicit in hitler's crimes so they can't possibly criticize the US
 
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