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United States Election: Nov 6, 2012 |OT| - Barack Obama Re-elected

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S

ShOcKwAvE

Member
faceless007 said:
If Silver ends up being wrong, his credibility will take a major, possibly unrecoverable hit.

Why doesn't that apply to this guy?
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For the same reason that "trick data" hurt the Climate Change movement or the undercover O'Keefe video hurt Planned Parenthood. People believe what they want to believe. All conservatives need is one minor incident to blow out of proportion and convince simple-minded people that it's a smoking gun.
 
G

Gary Whitta

Member
Voted filthy liberal down the line in San Francisco. First POTUS election for me so it was a bigger polling place than the ones I've been used to, a local high school. No real lines, voting was easy and on a paper ballot with no ID required, just the way I like it.
 
diffusionx

diffusionx

Gold Member
Dick Morris took an unrecoverable hit about 15 years ago. He lives on as an always-wrong political hack. There's always work for those guys, especially on the right.

Zzoram said:
All pundits don't like Nate Silver because if he keeps proving correct, his mathematical models replace the need for any pundits. They will be rendered obsolete, since their predictions are just based on hunches instead of data. We're entering a money ball era for political forecasting and the dinosaur pundits are feeling threatened because they are worthless in that future.
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I would argue that we've entered that phase already for the people who matter - the ones who run the campaigns. Hell, the campaigns have been doing that for decades.

Pundits are still out there because, for some reason, people trust them. People also want to believe a narrative, which is where you see crap like momentum and stuff.

The pundits out there are basically the Joe Morgans, raging against reality.
 
M

Mxrz

Member
EmCeeGramr said:
maybe in another 15-20 years my vote in georgia will count

zZhJq.png
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Supposedly we get closer every year, and that's why they keep making it harder to vote. But who knows. At least they aren't shooting as us anymore. Progress!
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Any updates on turnout? I worry about people not being as motivated this time.
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
why would anyone go by "dick" if their given name was Richard
 
T

Tobor

Member
Pundits still exist to fill the seats in the TV studio. Without them, the 24 hours news channels wouldn't have enough to air to fill the day.
 
S

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
Rentahamster said:
Nope. Like in that other thread (I forget which one specifically, there are many that discussed third parties), I explained to MThanded how some issues are more important to some people than others; perhaps to the point of breaking a threshold of irredeemability, or a firing offense, if you will.

Of course there are differences, if your pet issues take precedence over those differences, then there you have it.

If one thinks that the military-industrial complex, the prison-industrial complex, and corporate financing are at the root of many of the worst problems in America, then there isn't that much to differentiate the parties since they both have done their best to benefit from them.

Of course they are not the same in every way, but if what you care about consists of mainly the issues that you care about, then they are.
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I have three main objections:
It is hard to imagine a voter who is capable of critical thought and investigation but concludes that the only salient issues are the military-industrial complex, the prison-industrial complex, and corporate financing. It is hard to imagine what life experiences, what balance of self-interest and empathy, what professional background and class and race and gender and religion, what profile would lead to that to be the case. I do not pretend that I know better than a voter what issues are important to them, but I can point out that particular combinations of issues to the exclusion of others are basically absurd and not consistent with the way real world people form opinions. Yes, people contradict themselves. No, people aren't entirely consistent. Yes, people compartmentalize. But despite this, awareness and relevance of issues are connected. It strikes me that a voter for whom those are the only relevant issues is either willfully blind to other issues or is materially misrepresenting their awareness of those issues and ability to contextualize them.

Second, it is hard to believe that someone would be concerned by the prison-industrial complex as embodied by the drug war, understand that it leads to the unjust detention of the urban poor and not see a particular issue--say, you don't like three strikes laws, mandatory minimums, racial disparities in drug sentencing, the death penalty, unequal access to justice, corrupt state judges, prosecutorial malfeasance, etc--that manifests itself in such a way that the two major parties aren't thrown into sharp relief. Whether or not the American political canvas is more limited than other countries, it certainly isn't limited to a vanishing point.

Third, and finally, I don't accept that even given that you choose an issue that presidential candidates are nominally identical on, that the outcome will be the same. You have a sense of who the candidates will delegate to. You have a sense of what kind of people in the room. You can research to get a sense of whether or not they're likely to listen to dissenting views in the room. You know that on many issues congress is important--and so perhaps this issue is well served by having a president who is better at cooperating with congress, or perhaps this issue is well served by having congress being incentivized to powerfully check the president. Even if both Mitt Romney and Barack Obama like puppies, they don't like puppies in the same way.

It's just interesting to see the rationalizing done once "one of our own" is in power. Given that the anti-war movement is a shadow of what it used to be, it can be argued that the movement was more anti-Republican than it was anti-war, and that the answer to the great moral dilemma of our time as many might have put it during the Bush years, is merely a matter of who's in office at the time.
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I can't respond to this because "one of my own" is not in power. I'm not an American. I don't vote in the US. The guy in charge of my country is absolutely not who I voted for. In the US I would be most intellectually close to the green party. I don't want to represent anyone else on GAF so if you get the impression there are partisan democrats here playing the party game while using a veneer of objectivity, call them out. As long as you're responding to me, though, use my post history as a barometer rather than any pre-conceived notions you have about people holding a similar stance to mine.
 
K

Kettch

Member
But on the other hand, I can also understand the folks asking you to try to put aside those feelings and put more weight on the marginal value of your vote.
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I would have far more respect for these people if that's actually what they were saying. If you want to argue that Obama has done some good things and that that's worth voting for, good for you. That might convince some people.

Instead we get the "Voting for a third party is a vote for Romney" manipulative lies from them. I see no difference between that comment and someone saying Obama is a communist muslim, so vote for Romney. If the Democratic party were actually interested in voting rights and their left policies they would be pushing for voting reform where this isn't an issue. The problem here is not with third party voters, it's with party establishments that hold their party as more valuable than its ideals. If you don't want a green vote hurting your candidate, push for instant-runoff voting.

Once again, there is little difference between not being able to vote and not being able to vote for who you want.
 
R

RumblingRosco

Member
Are there any good websites for live coverage of the results? I know there are a few but I'd like one that is as non-biased as possible... though, ultimately, I'll settle for anything especially if there is some video feeds of talking heads rambling on about nonsense.
 
S

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
Kettch said:
I would have far more respect for these people if that's actually what they were saying. If you want to argue that Obama has done some good things and that that's worth voting for, good for you. That might convince some people.

Instead we get the "Voting for a third party is a vote for Romney" manipulative lies from them.
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It's not a manipulative lie and there's no reason to impugn someone's motives. I think several lengthy cases have been made in this thread on the subject that it would be pretty difficult, even if you disagreed, to assume everyone who holds that position is running flim-flam.
 
M

Magni

Member
MA, WI, MI, and NH will all go blue. I don't know why anybody would want Romney or Ryan when their own people don't want them.
 
K

Kettch

Member
Stumpokapow said:
It's not a manipulative lie and there's no reason to impugn someone's motives. I think several lengthy cases have been made in this thread on the subject that it would be pretty difficult, even if you disagreed, to assume everyone who holds that position is running flim-flam.
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It is a flat out lie. Unless you can tell me that you would see no difference between voting for Jill Stein and voting for Mitt Romney.
 
S

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
mclaren777 said:
My entire ballot is filled out except the presidential race.

Still can't decide what to do...
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Vote Romney. On the issues you have identified on GAF as being the most important to you, there's not likely to be a huge amount of difference, however as far as the supreme court is concerned, your values are better served by Mitt Romney as president. A DOMA case will make the supreme court in the next 8 years, a same-sex marriage case will make the supreme court in the next 8 years, and if I recall correctly you were also personally in favour of restricting or prohibiting abortion. There is likely to be another Casey v. PP-level case that will modify the boundaries of any national "right to choose" in the next 4-8 years. At least one supreme court justice and as many as 3 will retire in the next 8 years. Romney is the better choice for you on this basis.

Kettch said:
It is a flat out lie.
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I don't plan on continuing to talk to you if you think I'm manipulative and a liar. My posting record and my background in these issues stand for themselves.
 
H

heliosRAzi

Banned
Stumpokapow said:
It's not a manipulative lie and there's no reason to impugn someone's motives. I think several lengthy cases have been made in this thread on the subject that it would be pretty difficult, even if you disagreed, to assume everyone who holds that position is running flim-flam.
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Flim-flam? Get your antiquated language out of here
 
C

CSX

Member
Jhriad said:
0%

Just Google Texas Gerrymandering. It's so common here that it's actually a not insignificant subject in college political science courses focusing on the state.
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Pshh, it even has its own section on our high school text books
 
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