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[Clydefrog]

SPI World Cup group stage projections

http://espnfc.com/news/story/_/id/1639248/spi-world-cup-group-stage-projections?&cc=5901

wtf at Japan

if there's any betting house that uses this index... bet on Japan

 

[Cornballer]

- ESPN: Recent U.S. outcast Timothy Chandler hoping for another chance

Klinsmann was unavailable for comment at the time of publication but the player himself isn't exactly sure why he hasn't recently been afforded an opportunity to show how he can help the Stars and Stripes.

"I haven't heard from him, I don't know what's going on," Chandler told ESPN FC via telephone, before adding a few moments later: "It's been two or three months, that's the last contact that I've had with him."

In attempt to get a clear answer on the topic, ESPN FC reached out to coaches and players (both former and current) attached to the U.S. in a bid to get some perspective. None were willing to discuss the topic on the record -- a telling sign of Chandler's current status. It's almost as if his name is a forbidden word among the ranks of the Stars and Stripes. However, he isn't exactly without fault.

Since his debut in 2011, the German-American has easily been the most polarizing player on the U.S. squad.

Maybe it was the two years of stalling his decision to become cap-tied, which most outsiders attributed to his waiting for a chance to play for Germany (he adamantly denied that in an interview earlier this year, telling me it had to do with the extensive travel required). Still, his unwillingness to commit wholeheartedly definitely soured his relationship with U.S. fans who made it clear that they didn't want a wavering player among their heroes.

And his uninspired World Cup qualifying debut in Honduras in February, which saw the defender pulled at half-time, didn't help matters.

However, could Chandler's absence simply be down to form?

A source from the U.S. camp indicated that Klinsmann's decisions to leave out Chandler have been based on performance. Normally a mid-table side, Nuremberg is still searching for its first win this season and is currently battling relegation in 17th place. Despite Chandler's decent stats this year, contributing two assists, German publication Kicker has graded his performances as a 4.25 out of 6, which ranks him 59th out of 79 players in the Bundesliga on defense. It's plausible, but probably likely that a combination of all of the factors mentioned have played against him.

 

[Cornballer]

- Greg Seltzer with some transfer developments:

- Various places have proclaimed Stoke's second pursuit of Juan Agudelo as a closed case over the last couple days. I can confirm that this is not correct, so I guess this counts as overruling the offside flag of others. Or a reverse offside flag. I don't know, it's something.

If you have not heard: he has been in Potters-ville this week, and any second deal would require re-processing of his work permit application no earlier than March. Of course, they could always loan him out until then or until the end of the season or until the end of the season with an instant recall clause.

As for the Valencia interest, I cannot confirm how deep it runs or if it is even current. What I can tell you is that there is no Agudelo heat in Germany or Italy, places previously mentioned as housing suitors. Neeeeerp. Okay, so that counts as a typical offside flag around here.

- It is quite possible that Augsburg castaway Michael Parkhurst will be back in MLS by next season. More on this later.

- I know Fabian Johnson has had calls from other Bundesliga clubs and from England, but the summer freebie is now talking extension with Hoffenheim. I am hoping to have a full MLSS report on this soon, but because other teams can offer him a pre-deal come January, I am trying to frame the entire portrait before I run with it.You never know until you know for sure when the silly season rolls back around.

 

[Cornballer]

- Galarcep takes a crack at the January roster:

GOALKEEPERS — Nick Rimando, Sean Johnson, Tally Hall, Bill Hamid

DEFENDERS — Brad Evans, Chance Myers, Matt Besler, Omar Gonzalez, Chris Schuler, Clarence Goodson, Seth Sinovic, Chris Klute

MIDFIELDERS — Landon Donovan, Graham Zusi, Benny Feilhaber, Mix Diskerud, Kyle Beckerman, Luis Gil, Dillon Powers, Ricardo Clark

FORWARDS — Clint Dempsey, Chris Wondolowski, C.J. Sapong, Robbie Findley

Discussion via the link.

 

[Cornballer]

American Soccer Now articles:

- Tactical Q&A: Double Pivots, Empty Buckets, and the U.S. Roster
- Injury Report: Cherundolo, Brooks, Fabian Johnson Return to Action

 

[xbhaskarx]

- Galarcep takes a crack at the January roster:Discussion via the link.

Pasting my response to this list from the MLS thread...

Replace Tally Hall with Clint Irwin or Zac MacMath
Replace Ricardo Clark with Dax McCarty or Perry Kitchen
Replace Chance Myers with DeAndre Yedlin or Andrew Farrell
Replace CJ Sapong with Jack McInerney or Will Bruin
Replace Robbie Findley with Gyasi Zardes

And what do guys like Lee Nguyen and Kelyn Rowe need to go to get invited to January Camp?!?
Others I wouldn't mind seeing: George John, Dilly Duka, Matt Hedges, Amobi Okugo

Edit: and let's not forget about Conor O'Brien in Denmark...

 

[leroidys]

What do you guys think the most likely scenario of US making it out of the group would look like? I could see something like:

    USA    GHA    GER    POR
USA    X     X       X       X
GHA   1-2    X       X        X
GER   3-1   2-0   X       X
POR   1-1   1-1    2-2   X

Which would result in

Germany - 7
USA - 4
Portugal - 3
Ghana - 1

or something like:

        USA    GHA    GER    POR
USA    X        X          X         X
GHA   1-2      X          X         X
GER   3-2      2-0       X         X
POR   1-1      1-0       1-2      X

resulting in

Germany - 7
USA - 4, advance by Goals For
Portugal - 4
Ghana - 1

 

[gutshot]

I can't see Portugal scoring so few goals. Not with Ronaldo's current form. I think we need at least 5 points. Which is possible, if Germany has already locked up a spot before that last game. Remember, we already beat their B-team once.

 

[leroidys]

I can't see Portugal scoring so few goals. Not with Ronaldo's current form. I think we need at least 5 points. Which is possible, if Germany has already locked up a spot before that last game. Remember, we already beat their B-team once.

Yeah you're right, but I was trying to contrive realistic situations where the US would advance, as opposed to what I think will actually happen.

I think we have a better chance of beating Portugal than Germany though.

 

[gutshot]

Yeah you're right, but I was trying to contrive realistic situations where the US would advance, as opposed to what I think will actually happen.

I think we have a better chance of beating Portugal than Germany though.

A slightly better chance. I don't really like either match-up. For one, Germany just out-classes us across the board. And Portugal has the best player in the world in the form of his life that happens to play a position perfectly situated to attack our weakest spot. So yeah, I don't really love our chances in either game.

I just want to beat Ghana. At least then it will make the next two games meaningful. And will likely be a big blow to their hopes of getting out of the group, giving us a small measure of revenge.

 

[B-Dubs]

I can't see Portugal scoring so few goals. Not with Ronaldo's current form. I think we need at least 5 points. Which is possible, if Germany has already locked up a spot before that last game. Remember, we already beat their B-team once.

Given the travel time to Manas and the conditions, we may not see Ronaldo in his best form. If there's ever a time to beat him, this would be it.

 

[The Atticus]

Given the travel time to Manas and the conditions, we may not see Ronaldo in his best form. If there's ever a time to beat him, this would be it.

I genuinely think he could be coming into the tournament in the best form of his life.

 

[leroidys]

A slightly better chance. I don't really like either match-up. For one, Germany just out-classes us across the board. And Portugal has the best player in the world in the form of his life that happens to play a position perfectly situated to attack our weakest spot. So yeah, I don't really love our chances in either game.

I just want to beat Ghana. At least then it will make the next two games meaningful. And will likely be a big blow to their hopes of getting out of the group, giving us a small measure of revenge.

Good point. I'm going to set my expectations at "just beat Ghana".

Spoiler

Still a high probability of being disappointed

 

[B-Dubs]

I genuinely think he could be coming into the tournament in the best form of his life.

That would suck for us, I do think the travel and conditions will have an effect though. If it'll be enough for us to take advantage of is another story entirely. We won't know until the Cup hits. Honestly so long as we don't lose to Ghana I'll be happy.

 

[The Atticus]

Ghana's your first game right? It would be a great way to get media coverage if you exact revenge. Hoping for the best for you guys, I always liked your players' intelligence for the game.

 

[Clydefrog]

We play Germany last so they might rest starters if they know they already won the group

 

[Cornballer]

- Brian Sciaretta's predictions for the January camp roster

 

[Cornballer]

Oh snap:

Klinsmann signs 4-year contract extension to remain #usmnt head coach. Also becomes USSF's technical director.

EDIT: US Soccer [ress release: U.S. Soccer and Jurgen Klinsmann Agree to Four-Year Contract Extension

CHICAGO (Dec. 12, 2013) – The U.S. Soccer Federation and Jurgen Klinsmann have agreed to a four-year contract extension that will keep the former World Cup champion in his role as head coach of the U.S. Men’s National Team through 2018. As part of the new deal, Klinsmann also becomes the Technical Director for U.S. Soccer. Terms of the deal were not disclosed.

“One of the reasons we hired Jurgen as our head coach was to advance the program forward and we’ve seen the initial stages of that happening on the field and also off the field in various areas,” said U.S. Soccer President Sunil Gulati. “In the past two years he has built a strong foundation from the senior team down to the youth teams and we want to continue to build upon that success.”

Klinsmann has been at the helm for more than two years, compiling an overall record of 27-10-7. In 2013, he led the U.S. to one of the most successful years in MNT history, highlighted by the first place finish in CONCACAF qualifying for the 2014 FIFA World Cup. The team captured its fifth Gold Cup title, winning all six matches en route to the championship. The USA defeated No. 2-ranked Germany and also set single year records for wins (16), winning percentage (.761), and consecutive wins (12).

“I am very fortunate to continue the work we started more than two and half years ago,” said Klinsmann. “It’s exciting to see the progress we have made, and we continue to make improvements on all fronts. The role of Technical Director is a huge challenge and also a huge opportunity as we look to keep connecting the dots to the Youth National Teams, Coaching Education, the Development Academy and the grassroots efforts in this country. These are fascinating topics and I am excited work with so many talented people and hear fresh ideas. For sure it means more work, but also many more fulfilling opportunities.”

In addition to guiding the senior Men’s National Team, Klinsmann has been extremely active in building an integrated philosophy throughout the U.S. Youth National Teams, working closely with the coaches to develop performance driven standards both on and off the field.

Last month, Gulati and Klinsmann announced three-time FIFA World Cup veteran Tab Ramos as the Federation’s Youth Technical Director. Ramos will oversee the long-term strategies for development of both coaches and players at the youth level in the United States, working closely with Klinsmann and the Youth National Team and Development Academy coaches.

Klinsmann is currently in Bradenton, Fla., attending the U.S. Soccer Development Academy Winter Showcase and will be speaking with all of the club coaches on hand.

“It is vital that we stay focused on the development of our youth players and make sure the messages we are providing the senior team are being spread through our Youth National Teams as well the U.S. Soccer Development Academy,” said Klinsmann. “With Tab as our Youth Technical Director we will be able to continue to connect the dots and see more improvement.

 

[Clydefrog]

cool

something-something don't give a German too much power

 

[gutshot]

My guess is they were always planning to re-up him after this World Cup, but with the group as tough as it is and the chances of the US not making it to the knock-outs being pretty high, they decided to announce it now to avoid future embarrassment.

 

[Cornballer]

My guess is they were always planning to re-up him after this World Cup, but with the group as tough as it is and the chances of the US not making it to the knock-outs being pretty high, they decided to announce it now to avoid future embarrassment.

Right, I think that's a good read on it.

He has a ton of power as the head coach and the technical director. I'm somewhat surprised that he was time for both.

 

[B-Dubs]

My guess is they were always planning to re-up him after this World Cup, but with the group as tough as it is and the chances of the US not making it to the knock-outs being pretty high, they decided to announce it now to avoid future embarrassment.

Makes sense, there's no way they'd fire him after the year the team has had. It looks like they had the same initial reaction to Group G that we all did :lol

 

[Cornballer]

Heh:

#USMNT is now set to have 4 managers between 1995 and 2018. Mexico has had 4 managers since September

 

[xbhaskarx]

So Klinsmann won't get judged by how he does at the World Cup like every other manager?

This will look like a smart move if we get out of the group, but what if we don't?

 

[B-Dubs]

So Klinsmann won't get judged by how he does at the World Cup like every other manager?

This will look like a smart move if we get out of the group, but what if we don't?

If we don't then we all acknowledge that we got stuck in the group of death. Nothing he can do about that except train the team to do the best it can. It's not like we're in group E, we got a group with Germany, Portugal and Ghana. Two amazing teams and one that seems to have cast some sort of curse on us. So long as we don't lose everything I think everyone will be OK with us not making it out.

 

[Cornballer]

A few questions being floated at the moment...
1) Does this give him more incentive to plan more for the long term and go with younger players?
2) Is there a clause that would move him to technical director if we do poorly at the World Cup, but we'd install someone else as head coach?
3) Does this impact dual-nationals that are still looking at the US as an option?

So Klinsmann won't get judged by how he does at the World Cup like every other manager?

This will look like a smart move if we get out of the group, but what if we don't?

They can still fire him if they want to. They'd just have to pay a bigger buy out on his contract.

 

[xbhaskarx]

If we don't then we all acknowledge that we got stuck in the group of death.

So long as we don't lose everything I think everyone will be OK with us not making it out.

Group of death or no group of death is irrelevant. At the end of the day no one cares how tough or how easy your group is, all that matters is how far you go in the World Cup. No one remembers groups of death after the fact, 2-3 groups always get that label, but name the groups of death in the last four World Cups?

The fine line between success and failure for the US has been advancing out of the group, since 94. No one cares if you only made it through because some other team blew it, that's still a success (see most recently 09 Confederations Cup). Just like no one would have cared that "we should have beat Slovenia" in 2010 and advanced, if Donovan hadn't scored against Algeria it would be a failure.

90: eliminated (success = just making it)
94: out of the group (success)
98: eliminated (failure)
02: quarterfinals (success = getting out of the group)
06: eliminated (failure)
10: won the group (success)

Now we're saying that for the first time since 1990, we're just happy to be there? So not only no advancement in our expectations over 24 years, but actually a regression? I hope that's not the case... I thought Klinsmann was supposed to take us to the next level?

 

[Cornballer]

- Grant Wahl: U.S. Soccer signals approval in Klinsmann’s direction with new contract

 

[B-Dubs]

Group of death or no group of death is irrelevant. At the end of the day no one cares how tough or how easy your group is, all that matters is how far you go in the World Cup. No one remembers groups of death after the fact, 2-3 groups always get that label, but name the groups of death in the last four World Cups?

The fine line between success and failure for the US has been advancing out of the group, since 94. No one cares if you only made it through because some other team blew it, that's still a success (see most recently 09 Confederations Cup). Just like no one would have cared that "we should have beat Slovenia" in 2010 and advanced, if Donovan hadn't scored against Algeria it would be a failure.

90: eliminated (success = just making it)
94: out of the group (success)
98: eliminated (failure)
02: quarterfinals (success = getting out of the group)
06: eliminated (failure)
10: won the group (success)

Now we're saying that for the first time since 1990, we're just happy to be there? So not only no advancement in our expectations over 24 years, but actually a regression? I hope that's not the case... I thought Klinsmann was supposed to take us to the next level?

Of course we want to do better than before, but lets not pretend we've gotten an easy group. You're right that odds are no one will remember, but there's also something for being realistic right now. Also I never said happy, I said OK with it.

 

[xbhaskarx]

Of course we want to do better than before, but lets not pretend we've gotten an easy group. You're right that odds are no one will remember, but there's also something for being realistic right now. Also I never said happy, I said OK with it.

Name all the teams from the last few World Cups that historically have the expectation of getting out of their group, whose campaigns can be considered "OK" despite group stage eliminations, because they have the excuse of being in groups of death?

 

[Gamecocks625]

- Grant Wahl: U.S. Soccer signals approval in Klinsmann’s direction with new contract

Happy for this.

 

[Cornballer]

- MLS Analyst takes a tactical look at the evolution of the USMNT under Klinsmann

 

[Atlagev]

Oh snap:

EDIT: US Soccer [ress release: U.S. Soccer and Jurgen Klinsmann Agree to Four-Year Contract Extension

I think this is a good move, as it lets other federations know to back the f off. Remember, there was a rumor linking him to a Switzerland move a few weeks back, and, no matter how he does in the Cup, I think there would be federations looking to get him as their manager. Plus, this eliminates the possible thoughts in Klinsmann's head, especially if the World Cup *is* successful, of "Should I go to a bigger federation?" Good move for all involved, I think.

 

[Cornballer]

- Jeff Carlisle: What's the rush? A look at the reasons behind Klinsmann's extension

 

[Cornballer]

US press conference going on right now. Should be full quotes up later, but here's a couple tidbits:

“It’s been a great experience, but not an easy one,” says Klinsmann, referring mainly to CONCACAF WCQs. ”I have a better understanding."

Klinsmann: “I want to be part of soccer making it to another level in this country and build on the strong formation hat was already built by people who came before."

“The game I always refer to is the Bosnia game… we come back and tie the game and don’t sit back,” Gulati says.

“The players had the confidence” to keep going forward and they ended up winning the game. - Sunil

“We may not be able to do that against Spain or Germany,” Gulati says, later adding Portugal to that list.

JK on having job security going into Brazil: “It definitely affects how I approach the World Cup.”

"It's easier to get everyone in the same direction if they know you're here for the long term."

Gulati takes pains to point out Klinsmann's extension was done BEFORE the tough World Cup draw. It wasn't a reactionary move.

JK adds: “We want to get out of the group and surprise some people there, nothing changed on that."

JK further: "I’m not looking for any comfort zone going into the World Cup… You’re going to measure me on results in Brazil & rightfully so"

“One of the big disappointments of that learning curve was not qualifying for London 2012… We want to start pushing those topics earlier."

“We want to talk closer with MLS about what we can do for that age group, the 19-20-21-year-olds.” Klinsmann

Klinsmann wants to continue finding players around the world with American ties “and MLS plays a very important role and our academies."

Also:
- ESPN FC article: The United States won't be intimidated by the daunting Group G

- Fox Sports: Klinsmann's deal makes perfect sense

 

[Cornballer]

ESPN's SPI index defense and offense ratings in chart form:

We're near both Ghana and Portugal with slightly worse than average defense and average offense.

 

[Cornballer]

Boyd with a goal yesterday in the Europa league.
Brooks gets a start for Hertha today against Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga.

 

[Cornballer]

- Brian Straus with quotes out of the Klinsmann/Gulati presser: Overall impact, plus results, provided impetus for ‘unique’ Klinsmann’s new deal

EDIT: January camp info:

#usmnt will open Jan camp 1/6 in LA, travel to Brazil on 1/12, return 1/25 ahead of Feb. 1 friendly vs. South Korea.

 

[leroidys]

ESPN's SPI index defense and offense ratings in chart form:We're near both Ghana and Portugal with slightly worse than average defense and average offense.

Does anyone know how they calculate SPI?

 

[Cornballer]

Does anyone know how they calculate SPI?

Soccer Power Index: FAQ

 

[Nesotenso]

Kinda disappointing that US Soccer seems to have lined up the single friendly against South Korea so far. The Koreans on the other hand play Costa Rica and Mexico before us so they could be dead tired in Los Angeles.

 

[Cornballer]

Kinda disappointing that US Soccer seems to have lined up the single friendly against South Korea so far. The Koreans on the other hand play Costa Rica and Mexico before us so they could be dead tired in Los Angeles.

Maybe the USMNT is going to play some friendlies down in Brazil when they're there? I don't know what the plan is.

 

[daoster]

Maybe the USMNT is going to play some friendlies down in Brazil when they're there? I don't know what the plan is.

I seem to remember us soccer saying no friendlies in Brazil, but who knows. I seem to remember Jurgen saying that there were several world cup countries in line for friendlies, just had to wait for the draw. I know England was being thrown around as a possible friendly

 

[xbhaskarx]

The U-17s beat Brazil 4-1 today to win the NIF two days after beating England 5-1.

Here are the England highlights: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQokmEDd7Gw

The US was up 2-1 when Brazil went down to 10, after the US made it 4-1 another Brazilian was sent off and they finished with 9 men...

U.S. Soccer YNT ‏@ussoccer_ynt

Second Nike Friendlies title in three years for the USA!

USA sweeps tournament awards as Kevin Silva wins Nike Golden Glove Award, Haji Wright Nike Golden Boot, Christian Pulisic Nike MVP

 

[Clydefrog]

one of them should switch places with brek shea on the national team

i'm only half-way kidding

 

[B-Dubs]

one of them should switch places with brek shea on the national team

i'm only half-way kidding

Only half?

 

[The Chosen One]

The U-17s beat Brazil 4-1 today to win the NIF two days after beating England 5-1.

Here are the England highlights: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQokmEDd7Gw

The US was up 2-1 when Brazil went down to 10, after the US made it 4-1 another Brazilian was sent off and they finished with 9 men...

I watched the entire US vs. England match. England controlled the possession early on but never really got an end product out of any it. Whereas the US made good on the few chances they got early on and as the game progressed, they started getting more possession and did many attacking combinations to produce real opportunities to score.

I really think our Academy system and the maturing of our youth club soccer scene is really starting to pay dividends. While we won't have a superstar like a Messi or Ronaldo for quite a while, as a group our top young players are clearly the equals to some of the biggest soccer nations. I think the trick now is bridging the gap between the youth and senior level. Unfortunately college soccer does not help us at all to compete with Europe and South America. In Europe, players at 17 and 18 are already entering the professional ranks playing against the world's best. Whereas here in America a kid enters college at 18, where the quality of soccer is widely inconsistent, and don't reemerge until they're 22 or so. They basically lose 4 years against the same aged European player and never really catch up.

Hopefully with the recent youth Academy system in America, players will get better training year round and exposure to professional scouts (domestic and international), so our top players can skip the college route and go directly to the Senior level when they're 18-20. Our MLS player talent pool will improve and hopefully more of our top players will have the opportunity to player overseas. All of this will trickle up to our senior men's national team and start seeing some good results against top opposition as we have in the youth tournaments.

 

[NoRéN]

Poor Guzan. 3-0 in the 55th minute.

 

[NoRéN]

An american is the current top scorer in Serie A.

Yup.

 

[Cornballer]

- Clint Dempsey set to return to Fulham on two-month loan

Not confirmed yet, but a lot of places seem to think this will happen soon. It'd be good for him to get some PT and fitness. He hasn't been right since his move to Seattle.