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[thestopsign]

Looking through the thread from 2006 of the similar nature, I thought it would be interesting to see what you guys think this year. Here are my predictions.

DS - 7,000,000
--------------------------------
The DS will do even better than last year. Pokemon will be a monster this Spring, and Square Enix and Zelda will wrap up the fall quite nicely.

PSP - 2,600,000
--------------------------------
Unless something amazing happens, the PSP's luck will not turn around. A price drop might help some, but the software isn't there to help push it.

Wii - 4,200,000
--------------------------------
The Wii should have steady sales all year, that will stay ahead of the PS3, but behind the 360. Though there is an x factor with the Wii. The whole concept could take off in the US.

PS3 - 3,800,000
--------------------------------
A slow year overall. Sony is stuck here, they need to drop the price to get it to a more affordable spot, but it would be a bad financial decision, so I doubt they will drop the price.

360 - 4,600,000
--------------------------------
A price drop in September, or around the time Halo 3 comes out will do the 360 good. A constant stream of software helps as well.

PS2 - 2,500,000
--------------------------------
The ultimate budget console here. Will outsell the PS3 part of the year, but the holidays will have it dying down a bit as people see what the next-gen consoles can do.

GBA - 1,300,000
--------------------------------
This will probably be the last year the GBA will be relevant, which is sad, but I think it should do okay numbers all year round. The only reason why it did well last holiday season was because of DS shortages.

 

[VALIS]

360 - 4.5m
Wii - 4.5m
PS3 - 4m

This is at current Jan '07 prices. A 360 or PS3 price drop would boost their numbers.

 

[C4Lukins]

Wii will come in first with 20% more sales then the 360. The PS3 will have half the sales of the Wii. People will continue to buy bad handhelds and bad games for them at a rate 23% higher then the last fiscal year.

 

[frAntic_Frog]

PSP - 2,600,000
--------------------------------
Unless something amazing happens, the PSP's luck will not turn around. A price drop might help some, but the software isn't there to help push it.

still the same sad "no games for PSP" shpiel i see......

 

[argon]

DS - 7m
360 - 5m
Wii - 5m
PS3 - 3m
PSP - 3m

 

[ivysaur12]

DS - 7.5mil

The DS is a power machine, and Pokémon is just going to skyrocket. It's going to do better than Gold and Silver, easily.

PSP - 2mil

Eh. No mainstream titles that have the grasp of the DS plus a weakening brand recognition.

--

360 - 4mil

Strong game lineup, Halo 3, it's going to have a solid year.

Wii - 4.5mil

Going to have a really strong winter, and Smash Bros is going to be huge. If titles like Wii Fitness come out, those will be big as well. Wii Play will also be big.

PS3 - 3mil

Maybe I'm just cynical... but I can't see the PS3 performing well this year. No major exclusive until the end of the year, so we'll see.

 

[frAntic_Frog]

guess people forgot about upcoming PS3 07 exclusives like heavenly sword, motorstorm, lair, warhawk, etc

 

[suffah]

DS - 8M
PS2* - 5M
Wii - 4.5M
360 - 4.3M
PSP - 3M
PS3 - 3.5M

*price drop inc

 

[Speevy]

guess people forgot about upcoming PS3 07 exclusives like heavenly sword, motorstorm, lair, warhawk, etc

No they didn't. Everyone doubled their previous estimates on that basis.

 

[C4Lukins]

guess people forgot about upcoming PS3 07 exclusives like heavenly sword, motorstorm, lair, warhawk, etc

No kidding. I cannot shut my casual littler brother up, who has about 50 dollars a month of disposable income, about freaken Warhawk. He remembers me playing that on my PS1 10 years ago and is so psyched to rock the modern day version.

 

[LuCkymoON]

still the same sad "no games for PSP" shpiel i see......

People don't buy "Playstation" branded systems for first party games, unlike Nintendo's legion of fans would.

Spoiler

hardcore gamers on teh intanets don't count!

 

[ivysaur12]

guess people forgot about upcoming PS3 07 exclusives like heavenly sword, motorstorm, lair, warhawk, etc

Ect? That's it. And seriously, what has more selling power: Halo 3 and Smash Brothers or... Lair? Motorstorm? I'm not saying those won't be good games, but Lair won't do well. Motorstorm might. Warhawk might. But the PS3 needs more than mights and one good exclusive that will sell well.

 

[Xamdou]

360 - 10-15million
Wii - 8-10million
PS3 - 5-7million

 

[909er]

Wii - 4.5 million

It's the hot item right now, but I see it having weak sales in the middle of the year (relatively weak compared to the beginning and end of the year) as demand is fulfilled and it goes into a small drought. But with the games coming out and it being Nintendo, I think it's gonna sell alot this winter.

Xbox 360 - 5 million

It's established, and it's probably gonna sell similar to last year, except a little better because it doesn't have the shortage it did early on last year and the library is more filled out. I assume there is going to be a price drop around late summer, and that's gonna boost sales going into the Halo 3 holiday season, which is gonna be huge for the system. I think Halo 3 and price cut will push narrowly past the Wii.

PS3 - 2.5 million

Yeah, I'm pretty cynical about this one. There aren't enough games out right now, and it's software release schedule is too slim. It's also really, really expensive. I think toward the end of the year it will pick up a little with a price cut and MGS4 and few other games that are being looked forward to.

 

[Speevy]

Yeah, remember Rallisport Challenge 2? Best game in the whole genre last generation. Bombed HORRIBLY.

 

[B E N K E]

guess people forgot about upcoming PS3 07 exclusives like heavenly sword, motorstorm, lair, warhawk, etc

Great games for sure... but will they push hardware in any significant amounts?

Still I expect all three next gen platforms to be closer to 5 million. Playstation 3 has the brand name and when GTA IV arrives I would imagine, PS3 will be the machine to play it on for a big chunk of the mainstream.

That's guestimating 300,000 from jan-sep with 2,3 million for oct-dec. Give or take a few hundred thousands... I do however think Microsoft will have worse numbers than that until Microsoft drops the price.

Maybe it's a little high... but hopefully we'll see those kind of numbers for the good of the industry

 

[GhaleonEB]

360: ~5m
Wii: ~5m
PS3: ~3.5m

I think the 360 will fare better, epecially over the holiday, than last year. Wii will have slow sales in spring summer, then have Nintendo's usual bonanza in the fall when marquee titles launch. PS3 held back by price, competion.

 

[¤Ai®MåSt£®¤]

Ect? That's it.

not quite

 

[thestopsign]

guess people forgot about upcoming PS3 07 exclusives like heavenly sword, motorstorm, lair, warhawk, etc

Those are some big exclusives, but the whole reason why I put it low was because the price, not the games. If anything the games this year are just build up to make the PS3 look more appealing later on in it's life, when it is at a lower price.

The PSP really doesn't have any big casual games out there that will set the market on fire either. The one possible million seller next year is the Final Fantasy 7 spin-off title.

 

[tigeroreilly]

guess people forgot about upcoming PS3 07 exclusives like heavenly sword, motorstorm, lair, warhawk, etc

i love when people reference lair as a big ps3 exclusive even though the game absolutely sucks and every unbiased preview has echoed it. The only good game on that list is Heavenly Sword. Hardly enough to move the system in the face of Halo 3, Bioshock, Mass Effect, Too Human and Huxley.

FYI - i own both systems

 

[Branduil]

Can someone please list or link to total hardware sales in the US last year please.

 

[krypt0nian]

Are people including the free 360's with IPTV service later this year in their estimates?

Is this a sales thread or a marketshare thread?

 

[thestopsign]

i love when people reference lair as a big ps3 exclusive even though the game absolutely sucks and every unbiased preview has echoed it. The only good game on that list is Heavenly Sword. Hardly enough to move the system in the face of Halo 3, Bioshock, Mass Effect, Too Human and Huxley.

FYI - i own both systems

Save your judgment of Lair until you actually play it. There have been lots of positive previews, as well as a few negative ones. You are forgetting Metal Gear Solid 4, Devil May Cry 4, and other big exclusives also.

 

[Mifune]

i love when people reference lair as a big ps3 exclusive even though the game absolutely sucks and every unbiased preview has echoed it. The only good game on that list is Heavenly Sword. Hardly enough to move the system in the face of Halo 3, Bioshock, Mass Effect, Too Human and Huxley.

FYI - i own both systems

I wouldn't judge Lair too quickly. Especially when you list Too Human and Huxley, two very shaky 360 exclusives, as powerhouses.

I'm one of those Too Human believers, but come on.

 

[mintylurb]

DS - 7.9 mil
PSP - 2.5 mil
Xbox360 - 5.8 mil
Wii - 6.2 mil
PS3 - 4.1 mil

 

[UncleGuito]

Save your judgment of Lair until you actually play it. There have been lots of positive previews, as well as a few negative ones. You are forgetting Metal Gear Solid 4, Devil May Cry 4, and other big exclusives also.

I dunno if DMC4 is exclusive anymore...

As for Ninja Gaiden Sigma- how many people outside the video game forum crowd will actually buy it? It's a port of a 3-year old game, after all.

Predictions:

DS - 7.2 mil
PSP - 3.5 mil
Xbox 360 - 6 mil
Wii - 6.5 mil
PS3 - 3.8 mil

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

Can we get a summary of last year's totals?

 

[The Jer]

Save your judgment of Lair until you actually play it. There have been lots of positive previews, as well as a few negative ones. You are forgetting Metal Gear Solid 4, Devil May Cry 4, and other big exclusives also.

QFT

 

[Buffy4ever]

not quite

Ninja Gaiden did not help the x box sell so why would it help the PS3 sell?

 

[Defuser]

I dunno if DMC4 is exclusive anymore...

As for Ninja Gaiden Sigma- how many people outside the video game forum crowd will actually buy it? It's a port of a 3-year old game, after all.

Until there is official announcement of DMC4 on 360. DMC4 is still PS3 exclusive.
And compare to 100 million ps2 users who never play NG to 20 million xbox owners who already played it,there plenty of people who never play NG.

Ninja Gaiden did not help the x box sell so why would it help the PS3 sell?

Because it was on xbox?

 

[Big-E]

I love the PSP comment. Pretty sure the "something amazing" got released yesterday afternoon.

 

[Branduil]

DS- 7.8 mil

With supply and demand increasing, the DS has a bright future

GBA- 2.8 mil

It's still got legs

PSP- 2.5 mil

Sony must find an answer to rapidly declining software sales

PS2- 3.9 mil

Still the best bargain out there

GC- 0.4

Someone will buy this

Xbox- 0.1

Is it even possible to find new systems?

360- 4.6 mil

Halo 3 and a price drop boost sales, although the system still needs a larger variety of games to really break through

PS3- 3.1 mil

System needs several huge exclusives to make up for high price

Wii- 5.9 mil

Strong word-of-mouth and hype counter-act any early software deficiencies and as long as Nintendo can continue to release games that appeal to non and lapsed gamers, as well as Mario and Smash Brothers for the hardcore, this will be the best selling home console in the US.

 

[duderon]

Predictions:

DS 7.7 million
Wii 5.0 million
X360 4.1million
PS2 3.9 million
PSP 2.8 million
PS3 2.5 million
GBA 1.9 million

You may want to put a deadline for predictions before the January NPD comes out.

 

[Chairman Yang]

I will be genuinely surprised if the Xbox 360 doesn't take off this year. I'm confident in an eventual price drop this year, the software library is finally getting fleshed out properly, and, most importantly, I think there is a building perception of the 360 being the "main" console, rather than the PS3.

I predict 50-100% more units sold through than 2006.

 

[Odysseus]

ds - 100 million
ps2 - less than
360 - less than
ps3 - less than
wii - less than
psp - less than
gba - less than
gcn - less than
xbox - 5

 

[Ikael]

PSP: Its sales will mantain thanks to the still strong third party support (silent hill, Metal gear, crisis core, etc), plus a (predictable) pricedrop. Still, it will not be the resurrection that Sony is hoping for the plataform.

DS: It sales will keep asploding thanks to Pokemon, Dragon Quest, ASH, and God knows what else they have for the system, but I expect it to get even more people interested due to the first (non garbage) occidental third party projects (bioware, lucasart, etc).

360: Its sales will be slightly better than the previous year. Some people would consider it dissapointing since Halo came out and it should be selling gangbusters, another ones will think it is good since it is facing a fierce competence.

Wii: Slightly superior to the 360 ones. However, it is quite unpredictable. If the Wii is able to find its Nintendogs, the sales will boom. Perhaps wii - healthpack will be that kind of killer app.

PS3: Very low sales all around, while big titles will sell, they will move few units.

 

[underfooter]

I don't see the Ps3 coming out of its rut, likewise I see the 360 taking off. If GTA4 hits this year, then Microsoft is going to steamroll every perception that it was a playstation franchise. Nintendo will do phenomenally as usual.



DS- 7 million
PSP- 3 million
PS3- 3 million
360- 5 million
wii- 5 million

 

[Hunter D]

Because it was on xbox?

Ninja Gaiden sold over a million copies on the xbox, but wasn't a system seller. NG being on the PS3 won't change anything. It didn't sell xboxs and it won't sell PS3s. Hard as **** games don't really appeal to the average gamer.

 

[Busaiku]

Wii - 4.5 million. Main issue is still Nintendo's production constraints. If it gets about 12-13 million shipped by the end of the year, this might be the max the US can pull off by itself. I still expect it to be the hot item at least until May/June, and then some of the quality games will start rolling in.

X-Box 360 - 4.3 million. Similar to last year (right?). Though it does have even more quality games coming out this year, there's still the fresh, direct competition it has to deal with now. Through such, I believe it'll maintain about the same as it did last year.

Playstation 3 - 3.1 million. Price seriously holding it back. Slow sales in the earlier segments of the years, coupled with more notable sales towards the end of the year. Supply constraints may possibly be a factor as well.

Nintendo DS - 7.7 million. Gonna get some more quality releases this year, boosting its current momentum and allowing Nintendo's rise to heaven to maintain its stability.

Sony PSP - 2.2 million. Might be lowballing this figure a bit, but don't see it faring too well in the face of the Nintendo DS (and Gameboy Advance to some extent). Don't know all the quality releases either, so just guessing around here.

Playstation 2 - 4 mllion. There are still a number of good releases hitting the US this year. Will maintain a good year, might carry on well into 2008.

Gameboy Advance - 1.6 million. People will probably still want this, and it did have a pretty steady selling rate last year. More people will start to migrate on to the Nintendo DS and Sony PSP though.

Gamecube - 800,000. Zelda, might maintain it for the earlier months, but then it'll probably drop.

X-Box - 90,000. Yeah, I may be overestimating it though.


These are without factoring in price drops/bundles.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Wii - 7
DS - 8

considering the numbers they're doing in europe now as well, they're gonna have a lot of demand to supply across all the markets. this year, Nintendo desperately needs to ramp up their production facilities. they really need to go all out.

i really think by years end, they can push around that much, if not more Wii/DS in north america. it's just a matter of how much they're gonna be willing to share outside of japan, and what they make of europe. europe for Nintendo could very well be money left on the table.


PS3 - 4.5
PSP - 2.5

Sony really needs to remind people that there is value behind their high price. also start pushing the $500 price more than anything. people need to start thinking $100 more than 360 + Blu Ray, instead of $600.

PSP can push 2.5 i think. people will buy it regardless of games it seems. a price drop should ensure that things stay a float at best. redesign or intense price drop is the only thing that can spike sales.


360 - 6
i could be wrong here, but i think halo 3 will make for atleast 3 mil 360 sales this year. i think sales will stay about the same this year for the most part. although they don't really have to, i could see MS doing a decent price drop in time for q3. if anything, the premium goes down to $329.99 with a pack in. new HDMI / bigger harddrive model for $399.99. leaving the core system. they say they wanna drive the price down on that thing, but i don't see them doing anything that drastic. it won't go lower than $270.

 

[professor_t]

DS -- 10 million
PSP -- 4 million
PS3 -- 3.2 million
Wii -- 3.9 million
360 -- 4.7 million

However, if we're taking Mom & Pop stores into account, then:

DS -- 10 million
PSP -- 4 million
PS3 -- 3.2 million
Wii -- 147 million
360 -- 4.7 million

 

[nintendorly]

DS -- 8 million
Wii -- 7 million
X360--5 million
PS3 3.5-4 million
PSP--2.5-3 million

 

[Scotch]

Wii: 5.5M
360: 4.7M
PS3: 3.9M

PS2: 4.2M

NDS: 7.3M
PSP: 3.0M
GBA: 2.0M

 

[AniHawk]

DS: 7.5m
No, really. 7.5m. For the US. In 2007. Think sales are big now? Well, Pokemon's not even out yet.

360: 4.5m
The second-highest selling system of 2007 with a good amount. I expect a price drop and Halo 3 to propel sales higher than the Xbox brand has ever seen, especially with a limping Sony.

Wii: 4m
They'll sell as many as they can make, despite the fact they won't have any industry-stopping event (like Halo 3). I can see a revival of 3D Mario happening if demand for the system stays this high, and SSBB will really get the kid and teen fans on board.

PS2: 4m
It might see a price drop to $100 finally, but even if it doesn't, there are a lot of original games still being released for it, and it's THE budget system these days aside from the GBA.

PSP: 3.5m
Sales are up, thanks to Sony's decision to advertise a system they made. There will probably be a price drop (finally), which will boost abysmal software sales for a bit, but it's only buying the system's life a little more time at this point.

PS3: 3m
Ruh-roh. People don't LIKE spending $600 for a video game system. Still, it'll have a lot of good games by the end of the year, and Sony better hope Konami comes through with MGS4, which is the system's big highlight for the year from what I can see, and possibly the biggest thing that can challenge Halo 3 on terms of graphics.

GBA: 2m
Yay. Looks like it's finally dying. It'll still be in stores enough to sell whatever else Nintendo has to ship, but a lot of the fanbase will finally transfer over to DS with Pokemon, and the transition from student to master will be complete.

 

[JJConrad]

Can we get a summary of last year's totals?

You can find the link for it in the "(ANALYST) console wars = special olympics" thread that is still on the front page. We had a 2006 prediction thread. I think it'll be more fun to wait for a professoinal to go first so we know what not to predict.

I'm not going to try any predictions until I've had a little more time to study current trends and sales, I also want to see where everything settles post-Christmas. Until then any prediction would only be a blind guess.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Wii will come in first with 20% more sales then the 360. The PS3 will have half the sales of the Wii.

35.7% X360, 42.9% Wii, 21.4% PS3 in other words.

360 - 10-15million
Wii - 8-10million
PS3 - 5-7million

So it's going to beat the previous record several times over?

 

[Pellham]

i'm predicting 2m for PS3

 

[thestopsign]

i'm predicting 2m for PS3

A little too low. Though, I do think it is going to be that kind of year for Sony.

 

[rs7k]

6 million for the Wii in the US

5.5 million for the 360

4 million for the PS3

 

[Zombie James]

It's so ****ing early for this stuff, seriously. The Wii's going through a drought, the PS3's just starting to get worthwhile games other than Resistance, and who knows what Microsoft will do with the 360 hardware-wise.