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Valve's fake, rigged, waste of time Progress Quest troll Portal 2 ARG

Blizzard

Banned
theinfinityissue said:
I made a friend!

Valve really does need to do something else, something drastic tonight before all the energy drains out of the ARG entirely, and I wouldn't be surprised if they did. You know they're watching the backlash at this stage, it'll be interesting to see how they respond. The only wrong response would be no response.
Ultimately, what is any backlash going to do? If you take some 25,000 users compared to 3,000,000 active PC Steam users, and untold hordes of console people, whatever those PC users think doesn't affect a whole lot in the short run, I'd say. If all 25,000 of them ran out and bought the $35 Portal 2 from Best Buy with the $10 gift card, that might make Valve lose a little bit of money, but it's not like anyone will stop playing Valve games, especially not this one.
 
Trickster said:
It was a great idea to go "To all of our fans that love our games, if you want to have the chance of getting the portal 2 before the official release date, go pay money for some random games and do stuff in them"?

No of course it wasn't, It was a terrible idea, and if it had been almost any other developer people would be up in arms over it.

I meant the events leading up to this potato sack nonsense. And anyways the last part of the ARG should have been related to playing Portal 1.
 

Red

Member
Spire said:
Is this sarcasm or...what is this?
Valve is one of my favorite developers but I can't really argue with him. They're generally good to their community but not really good at communicating about things outside of updates to their current games (TF2 blogs and such). I think they've nailed that aspect of fan interaction, better than anyone else, but in general there's a lot of mystery surrounding them.
 

Oreoleo

Member
Well in all my quoting and posting I managed to lose that java script for the glados@home page. Someone post it again real quick plz :D

Twig said:
Then they need to grow up!
:( B-b-b-b-b-b-but my monies!
 

shuyin_

Banned
Palette Swap said:
That part has been workng great so far !
I take it you are sarcastic? Yes, people are upset, but they're upset over the retarded ARG grinding.

In the context of what i theorize, it meant Valve is keeping the appearance of an early release (for PC users) without upsetting console users (imagine how pissed they would've been if you played it on PC since friday).

@TheExodu5: is that graph legit? If so, i'd say it is proof enough that it is fixed and if it really constitues proof, it might be added to the thread title
 

TheExodu5

Banned
Spire said:
Is this sarcasm or...what is this?

It's not. Are you new to Valve games or something? They never talk to the community, ever. When TF2 beta was releasing 23 hours and 55 minutes after expected, the community didn't get a single message from Valve for the entire day. They didn't pop in to say "hold up guys, we're working on some fixes!". They did nothing. They released the game at 11:55PM PST without a word.

They do this every time.
 
TheExodu5 said:
It's not. Are you new to Valve games or something? They never talk to the community, ever. When TF2 beta was releasing 23 hours and 55 minutes after expected, the community didn't get a single message from Valve for the entire day. They didn't pop in to say "hold up guys, we're working on some fixes!". They did nothing. They released the game at 11:55PM PST without a word.

They do this every time.
Yup I gotta agree with this.
 

Twig

Banned
TheExodu5 said:
It's not. Are you new to Valve games or something? They never talk to the community, ever. When TF2 beta was releasing 23 hours and 55 minutes after expected, the community didn't get a single message from Valve for the entire day. They didn't pop in to say "hold up guys, we're working on some fixes!". They did nothing. They released the game at 11:55PM PST without a word.

They do this every time.
They've gotten better.

Sometimes they respond to emails from fans!
 

TheExodu5

Banned
shuyin_ said:
@TheExodu5: is that graph legit? If so, i'd say it is proof enough that it is fixed and if it really constitues proof, it might be added to the thread title

Yeah, it's legit.

The only way I could see this not being fixed is if the CPU contributions are also proportional to the overall online userbase. Since the CPU count fluctuates pretty much in accordance to the online userbase, the (total CPU count)/(total online users) ratio stays pretty constant.

Twig said:
They've gotten better.

Sometimes they respond to emails from fans!

Yeah those are awesome. I love Gabe's responses. They just need to work on consistency here.
 

Spire

Subconscious Brolonging
TheExodu5 said:
It's not. Are you new to Valve games or something? They never talk to the community, ever. When TF2 beta was releasing 23 hours and 55 minutes after expected, the community didn't get a single message from Valve for the entire day. They didn't pop in to say "hold up guys, we're working on some fixes!". They did nothing. They released the game at 11:55PM PST without a word.

They do this every time.

They don't do that every time. Look at how they handled the L4D2 thing, or Steam, or TF2 in general. They've been pretty damn good about letting us know what's in the pipeline and what they're doing recently. "One of the worst developers in the industry" and "do it every time!" are beyond hyperbole.
 

syoaran

Member
Blizzard said:
Ultimately, what is any backlash going to do? If you take some 25,000 users compared to 3,000,000 active PC Steam users, and untold hordes of console people, whatever those PC users think doesn't affect a whole lot in the short run, I'd say. If all 25,000 of them ran out and bought the $35 Portal 2 from Best Buy with the $10 gift card, that might make Valve lose a little bit of money, but it's not like anyone will stop playing Valve games, especially not this one.

Actually, it does cause a few issues in the long run, mainly that a core group of those 25k (say about 10k of them) are influencers in their own right. They blog or podcast, they are the most informed customers of all. If they start being negative about the company, it has a negative impact on the reputation overall. Thats one of the reasons why Valve try hard to show how much they value their own community. The ARG itself was a great success, what's happening now will be highlighted as an epic failure by gaming sites after the launch of Portal2, which again, will have no direct impact on sales, but indirectly affect the companies reputation in the long run.

A lot of people were mentioning HL2's launch and its failure, which had a huge impact on the success of the service during its infancy. They had to work really hard to prove to customers and clients that they improved the service from that point.
 

Red

Member
Spire said:
They don't do that every time. Look at how they handled the L4D2 thing, or Steam, or TF2 in general. They've been pretty damn good about letting us know what's in the pipeline and what they're doing recently. "One of the worst developers in the industry" and "do it every time!" are beyond hyperbole.
So out of context.
 

Sibylus

Banned
TheExodu5 said:
The individual red bar gain rate seems to be based on player count, sure. But you can't deny that we should be seeing a variation in the overall completion % as the number of CPUs goes up and down.
Again, worse than useless without consulting the games. Their completion directly affects the global average (which is what determines the bar and the rising line), the numbers bear this out. At the time I looked into it, there was only "fudging room" for two hundredths of a percentage point.

Further, I have reason to believe the specific page you link to is malfunctioning or something. I've seen a more informative graph pop up in place of it several times (same url), that had a red completion line hewing quite close to a beige CPU count line. If I can figure out where it keeps "going", I'll by all means share it (or screenshot it, if its transience continues).
 

Drkirby

Corporate Apologist
shuyin_ said:
There is no proof that it is or it is not fixed.
However, i think common sense and logic dictates that it is. Just my two cents, but i already posted my view on it:

I doubt they would've risked getting complains from console users for screwing them over if PC users had played it on friday or even saturday. I believe they scripted the bars to fill in such way that the game would be released a few hours earlier. Thus they are keeping the appearance of an early release, without upsetting anyone.

EDIT: looking at that graph, if it's legit, i'd say we have proof that it is fixed :)))))
No, if you look at the game specific charts, the rate the bars fill is a near 1:1 correlation with the accumulative number of players playing the game at each update sample. The main problem is the Potatoes do very little

Looking close, It does look like the Potatoes may tie into the Work Factor though, how much each CPU changes the bar. Amenesia needed 2900 players to increase 1% 36 hours ago, now it needs just 2385. Its is a bit unclear just how the Potatoes tie in though. The Potatoes have gone up 185k in 36 hours, but the rate has only increased 20%, so they may actually do nothing and the rate of increase could be fixed.

I just wonder when it tallies up. It seems to only do it once an hour though.
 
Botolf said:
Again, worse than useless without consulting the games. Their completion directly affects the global average (which is what determines the bar and the rising line), the numbers bear this out. At the time I looked into it, there was only "fudging room" for two hundredths of a percentage point.

Further, I have reason to believe the specific page you link to is malfunctioning or something. I've seen a more informative graph pop up in place of it several times (same url), that had a red completion line hewing quite close to a beige CPU count line. If I can figure out where it keeps "going", I'll by all means share it (or screenshot it, if its transience continues).
You're fighting a losing battle here. He's the same person that kept on quoting that hasportal2releasedyet site saying we were 4 minutes ahead of schedule after it was posted many times that they were calculating it completely wrong.
 

Blizzard

Banned
syoaran said:
Actually, it does cause a few issues in the long run, mainly that a core group of those 25k (say about 10k of them) are influencers in their own right. They blog or podcast, they are the most informed customers of all. If they start being negative about the company, it has a negative impact on the reputation overall. Thats one of the reasons why Valve try hard to show how much they value their own community. The ARG itself was a great success, what's happening now will be highlighted as an epic failure by gaming sites after the launch of Portal2, which again, will have no direct impact on sales, but indirectly affect the companies reputation in the long run.

A lot of people were mentioning HL2's launch and its failure, which had a huge impact on the success of the service during its infancy. They had to work really hard to prove to customers and clients that they improved the service from that point.
I would say that the HL2 thing is different than this. Any backlash from this would be more along the lines of say, L4D2 sequel backlash, or Modern Warfare 2 dedicated servers backlash.

Both of those games went on to be very successful, and the COD game line is tremendously successful.

If say, Penny Arcade and Notch asking everyone to help release Portal 2 didn't make much of an impact, I find it hard to believe that influential bloggers/podcasters would hurt Valve. Say they do hurt Valve, and Valve's reputation goes down among PC gamers. What happens then? If Valve announces another game (episode 2 or Half-life 3), are you going to boycott it? Could you honestly bring yourself to pass up a Valve game no matter how you are treated? :p
 

TheExodu5

Banned
CrookedRain said:
You're fighting a losing battle here. He's the same person that kept on quoting that hasportal2releasedyet site saying we were 4 minutes ahead of schedule after it was posted many times that they were calculating it completely wrong.

No I wasn't. I never quoted that terribly flawed site.
 

shuyin_

Banned
Drkirby said:
No, if you look at the game specific charts, the rate the bars fill is a near 1:1 correlation with the accumulative number of players playing the game at each update sample. The main problem is the Potatoes do very little

Looking close, It does look like the Potatoes may tie into the Work Factor though, how much each CPU changes the bar. Amenesia needed 2900 players to increase 1% 36 hours ago, now it needs just 2385. Its is a bit unclear just how the Potatoes tie in though. The Potatoes have gone up 185k in 36 hours, but the rate has only increased 20%, so they may actually do nothing and the rate of increase could be fixed.

I just wonder when it tallies up. It seems to only do it once an hour though.
Well, until there is evidence indicating it is or it is not fixed, i will keep my opinion that Valve rigged it as a compromise for an early release (by a few hours) without upsetting console users.
 

Fox318

Member
sflufan said:
I wonder where this rates on the scale of Valve screw ups?

We have:

- HL2 releasing on September 30, 2003
- Disastrous launch of HL2 on Steam in 2004
- L4D2 boycott
- "Episodic format will allow us to release a new part of the HL2 story every 6 months"

Where you would you put this one?
I'd say its right on with the HL2 launch. The best example I've seen of gameplay unlocking a game/mode was 1943 because there was a real measurement of progress.

Also I still can't get over the fact they had a countdown to a countdown.
 

Drkirby

Corporate Apologist
shuyin_ said:
Well, until there is evidence indicating it is or it is not fixed, i will keep my opinion that Valve rigged it as a compromise for an early release (by a few hours) without upsetting console users.
Look over all the charts here, and make sure to flip on the Work Factor Line:
http://cpucount.zapto.org/

Unless Valve is actually over riding the number of people currently playing to display false values (They aren't), the thing isn't "rigged". They most likely have a very good idea about the range of times it is going to fall in though.
 

clav

Member
As much disappointment as a lot of us can write about the situation, we can only simmer down and anticipate a Monday mid-day release at earliest. Valve is dead set on Portal 2's release, and there's not much we can do to change that.

The general gamer population doesn't care.

Get some outside air people.
 

Sibylus

Banned
I'm willing to be persuaded, but all I'm getting from you people is "these lines look funny". Is it too much to ask that you actually look into it a bit?
 

enzo_gt

tagged by Blackace
The Broken Ska Record said:
I still fail to see how this is a Valve "screwup." Granted they went about this the wrong way, but regardless the game will be releasing on it's intended day.
That IS the screw up. Godlike buildup into terrible and counterintuitive peak of excitement.
 

Red

Member
Botolf said:
I'm willing to be persuaded, but all I'm getting from you people is "these lines look funny". Is it too much to ask that you actually look into it a bit?
% completed doesn't look like it's being affected by any other factors. We are making progress on individual games bars, but there's no direct correlation between those bars and overall progress, and potatoes are doing nothing or almost nothing at all.

Really it's not worth arguing over. They are bars. They are filling. The game will probably be out Monday. Just a shame the whole thing rolled to a dead stop before the end.
 

Corky

Nine out of ten orphans can't tell the difference.
The Broken Ska Record said:
but regardless the game will be releasing on it's intended day.

Yeah it's a sad sight that this can be seen like something positive and out of the ordinary.
 
The Broken Ska Record said:
I still fail to see how this is a Valve "screwup." Granted they went about this the wrong way, but regardless the game will be releasing on it's intended day.

This.

I was excited to hear that we might get to play it this weekend and am a bit disappointed that it didn't work out that way, but whatever, I get to play portal 2 in two days it's going to be a sweet video game.
 

shuyin_

Banned
Drkirby said:
Look over all the charts here, and make sure to flip on the Work Factor Line:
http://cpucount.zapto.org/

Unless Valve is actually over riding the number of people currently playing to display false values (They aren't), the thing isn't "rigged". They most likely have a very good idea about the range of times it is going to fall in though.
Rigged in this context might also mean that they made the bars to fill slow on purpose (from the very beginning) so that no matter how many users play the games and for how long, they would still reach the compromise i was talking about (an earlier, but near Tuesday release).

It's just my opinion, and to me it sounds very logical. What's the biggest backlash:
- people on message boards (that Valve doesn't give a shit about) complaining how the ARG is fixed,
- or (console) paying customers complaining they got screwed (if PC users would have played it on friday)?

To me it is fixed and no matter anybody says, the ARG didn't intend the game to be released a few days early. Only a few hours.
 

Zomba13

Member
mazeedibeedi said:
Toki Tori is on its final legs and is picking up a lot of steam (pun unintended).
Is the Potato Multiplier in place?
Nope. Potatoes still seem to do nothing and GLaDOS isn't overclocked yet.

Also this is all thats left of the ARG according to a Valve employee. All the other stuff about the infected and needing to be saved and other things are just distractions. Quite disappointing really.
 

Trickster

Member
The Broken Ska Record said:
I still fail to see how this is a Valve "screwup." Granted they went about this the wrong way, but regardless the game will be releasing on it's intended day.


If this is not Valve's screwup then whos is it?

And yes the game will release on the release date. But that's not exactly what anyone wants when there's a huge "get the game out early" event in the days leading up to it. Especially when the event entails having to buy games + spend hours and hours grinding certain parts of the games.


dollartaco said:
still complaining in here?

People complaining about stupid shit in topic about the stupid shit. Shocker indeed.
 

Jenga

Banned
shuyin_ said:
Rigged in this context might also mean that they made the bars to fill slow on purpose (from the very beginning) so that no matter how many users play the games and for how long, they would still reach the compromise i was talking about (an earlier, but near Tuesday release).

It's just my opinion, and to me it sounds very logical. What's the biggest backlash:
- people on message boards (that Valve doesn't give a shit about) complaining how the ARG is fixed,
- or (console) paying customers complaining they got screwed (if PC users would have played it on friday)?

To me it is fixed and no matter anybody says, the ARG didn't intend the game to be released a few days early. Only a few hours.
while i agree valve probably doesn't care about community rage, I don't think they give a fuck about console gamers either

valve threw us the test claiming we can only do it if we try

and we failed
 
Jenga said:
while i agree valve probably doesn't care about community rage, I don't think they give a fuck about console gamers either

valve threw us the test claiming we can only do it if we try

and we failed
Correction: they failed
 

shuyin_

Banned
Lostconfused said:
No one forced them to put it in such a context where it would be a negative but here we are.
I disagree. Try telling that to someone who wasted his weekend putting hours into these games, trying to obtain some potatos in the hopes that maybe in the evening or in the next day's morning he might play Portal 2.

The context was given by Valve and at this point, i can totally understand the actual people that put hours into this ARG and feel disappointed that their effort means only a few hours.

Jenga said:
while i agree valve probably doesn't care about community rage, I don't think they give a fuck about console gamers either

valve threw us the test claiming we can only do it if we try

and we failed
Any company always cares about paying customers. Valve included. It's just business. If they'd upset someone, they'd choose the people on message boards (like us) not those that are part of their actual market.
 

Sibylus

Banned
Crunched said:
% completed doesn't look like it's being affected by any other factors. We are making progress on individual games bars, but there's no direct correlation between those bars and overall progress, and potatoes are doing nothing or almost nothing at all.

Really it's not worth arguing over. They are bars. They are filling. The game will probably be out Monday. Just a shame the whole thing rolled to a dead stop before the end.
Again, the "Computations completed for launch" bar is a precise average of all the games' completion bars (I can do the numbers again, if you like). The Projected Launch timer is desynced entirely aside from the "compensation prize" hours added for filling a bar, it remains the failure state for this thing. If we were working to bring the Projected Launch timer down, you'd have a point, but that isn't how we win this. We win by filling every bar, and thus the global one as well.

Potatoes: The effect is minuscule to be sure, but most sources indicate that they're active (though not yet "overclocked", whatever that means).
 

Morkins

Banned
Has it occurred to anyone that Valve may have implemented a time adjusted progression curve? I mean, they have mountains of data that tracks the number of players on steam at any given time. They also have mountains of data on the number of players in any given game on steam at any given time. The player count fluctuation almost match the NORMAL fluctuation exactly. If they have implemented a time adjusted progression curve that had progression require more work during peak hours(since there are typically more people playing during peak hours), then the fact that the "player count curve" is basically identical to to the player count curve that is typical would explain why the progression has been constant.
 

TheExodu5

Banned
Morkins said:
Has it occurred to anyone that Valve may have implemented a time adjusted progression curve? I mean, they have mountains of data that tracks the number of players on steam at any given time. They also have mountains of data on the number of players in any given game on steam at any given time. The player count fluctuation almost match the NORMAL fluctuation exactly. If they have implemented a time adjusted progression curve that had progression require more work during peak hours(since there are typically more people playing during peak hours), then the fact that the "player count curve" is basically identical to to the player count curve that is typical would explain why the progression has been constant.

That sounds very plausible to me.

But again, I think Valve has a time in mind for when they're going to release this. If a lot more users were participating, I doubt we'd be seen the game much sooner.
 

Red

Member
Trickster said:
If this is not Valve's screwup then whos is it?

And yes the game will release on the release date. But that's not exactly what anyone wants when there's a huge "get the game out early" event in the days leading up to it. Especially when the event entails having to buy games + spend hours and hours grinding certain parts of the games.
That's exactly it. We as a fan base have been working toward a goal that we've invested our time and money into with the promise of something at the end of it all. We didn't know exactly what that would be, but it was presented as substantial. And then the clues started dropping about an early Portal 2 release, and everyone got even more excited. And then this happens. And it's nothing. It negates all previously efforts by giving us an impossible hurdle. Even if we get over it the reward is so small it doesn't matter.

When the timer switched over from a countdown to the GLaDOS unlock page, this ceased to be an ARG and became a very transparent marketing stunt. We've all been played.

Botolf said:
Again, the "Computations completed for launch" bar is a precise average of all the games' completion bars (I can do the numbers again, if you like). The Projected Launch timer is desynced entirely aside from the "compensation prize" hours added for filling a bar, it remains the failure state for this thing. If we were working to bring the Projected Launch timer down, you'd have a point, but that isn't how we win this. We win by filling every bar, and thus the global one as well.

Potatoes: The effect is minuscule to be sure, but most sources indicate that they're active (though not yet "overclocked", whatever that means).
Even considering this the whole thing seems designed to end at a certain time, so user input isn't worthwhile IMO. There's this idea here that we aren't trying hard enough, and that's terrible. It's a very manipulative part of the "game" and doesn't show any respect toward the people who've put time and energy into the ARG leading up to this.
 
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